The 21 College Basketball Teams that Matter for the 2025 Season

For the January Edition of the Super Sixteen, I power rank the top 21 teams in College Basketball behind the premise of who can win the National Championship.

by Jordan Beckley

There are tons of New Year’s Traditions.

A kiss at midnight, people not moving from the same spot in Times Square for 16 hours (diaper and all), the Rose Bowl, a renewed Gym Membership, and so on.

But my New Year’s tradition is to write this article… my annual article catching everybody up on College Basketball season they may have missed.

With the calendar change from 2024 to 2025 the sports calendar also changes. 18 NFL fanbases seasons just ended with more ending every week after that. The expanded College Football Playoff throws off my own calendar a little bit, but still 98% of CFB teams are done.

Meanwhile, College Basketball is just beginning it’s most recognizable stretch: Conference Play.

So in case you’ve spent the past few months consuming solely football and haven’t checked in on College Basketball, let me get you up to speed on the 21 Teams that Matter for the 2025 season.

What does that mean? What do you mean what teams matter?

I am defining mattering as teams that could win the National Championship.

My guarantee is that the 2024 National Champion is on this list.

I am not guaranteeing all 4 Final Four teams will be apart of the 21 teams on this list.

Last year, 3 of the 4 Final Four teams were from my 22 teams that matter list. The one who wasn’t was NC State. The year before that San Diego State and Florida Atlantic were the teams that didn’t matter and crashed the party.

We love March Madness because of it’s unpredictability which usually results in at least one surprise Final Four team, but the National Champion is much more predictable.

In four months our National Champion will be from this list of 21 teams. I have them separated in tiers to make it easier. The rankings within the tiers can fluctuate but the groupings are more important evaluators than a “at this moment” number next to their name.

We have our five Title Favorites, the four teams who are damn close, the three teams I have doubts about, four teams who are better off aiming for the Final Four, and then 5 longshots in the Waiting Room I can’t fully scratch off.

Without further ado let me run you thru the highs and lows of each team, why they could win it all, why they won’t, and the betting odds via FanDuel for each team that matters for the 2025 National Title hunt.

Tier I: Title Favorites

Through the first two months of play these teams have separated themselves. Your next National Champion is most likely in this group.

1. Auburn

Highs: Maui Champs, Wins over Houston, Iowa State and body bagged Purdue

Lows: Lost at Cameron Indoor

Betting Odds (via FanDuel): +550

Auburn isn’t the AP Poll’s number 1 team but every website (KenPom, BartTorvik, EvanMiya, NET etc.) and every realistic person knows that this is the best team in CBB right now even if they have a 1 in the loss column and Tennessee doesn’t.

A close loss to a Top-5 Duke team in Durham isn’t just forgivable it should be expected for any of these teams including if Tennessee played there.

I am not off the scent of the Tigers who are truly a super-powered team who’s current KenPom adjusted net rating puts them into the rare air of teams like last year’s UConn team, 2021 Gonzaga, 2019 Virginia and the 38-1 Kentucky team from 2015. Notice that only 2 of those 4 teams won the National Title (but all made the Final Four if that bet interests you).

Auburn is in the Top 15 out of 364 teams in:

Points per game
Assists per game
Fewest turnovers per game
3pts made per game
2 point Field Goal %
Overall FG %
Blocks per game
Opponent 2pt FG%
Fewest blocked shots by opponent

That’s 9 different statistical categories that they are in the top 4% of the sport in. Most of these other elite teams are only elite in 1-2 stats. Again, the Tigers are upper echelon good at an unheard of 9 of the biggest stats in Basketball which is powering their no.1 KenPom offense EVER in the website’s 24 year history.

Shoutout to Bruce Pearl, Johni Broome, Chad Baker-Mazara, the whole lot of them. Auburn is the Title favorite until these numbers come down to Earth.

2. Iowa State

Highs: Wins over Marquette, Dayton, Iowa

Lows: Lost at the last moment to Auburn

Betting Odds: 12-1

Some of these “lows” for the Top teams are actually just the arguments for why we should believe they can win the National Title.

The case for Iowa State is experience, guard play, defense and … offense too now. Keshon Gilbert and Tamin Lipsey carried too much water for the Cyclones last season and they didn’t have enough mustard to make it past Illinois in the Sweet 16 last year.

That’s not the case this season as Iowa State has scored 79 points or more in every game this season. Keshon Gilbert is a 1st Team All-American candidate, Milan Momcilovic & Curtis Jones made leaps, Dishon Jackson is an upgrade down low, Josh Jefferson has been an X Factor, and if Tamin Lipsey busts his slump the offense could push even higher than their current poll positions of Top-10 in PPG & Top-5 in KenPom adjusted offensive efficiency.

Coach Otzelberger’s team can absolutely win the National Title this year. If the Tournament games were played at Hilton I would bet them to win it all.

The Cyclones are a lot like Purdue last year where a Final Four will validate the past decade or so of above average Basketball and end a 81 year drought since their first Final Four in 1944. Still, this team should have a goal of winning it all.

3. Duke

Highs: Beat Auburn, smoked Arizona in McKale Center

Lows: close losses to Kansas and Kentucky

Betting Odds: +750

The Blue Devils have better odds to win the Title and they have better KenPom rankings than Tennessee and Iowa State, but some poor late game coaching and/or inexperience cost them two tight games already.

Duke has a defense so good that it makes Kelvin Sampson at Houston blush and a Top-10 KenPom offense that is still blossoming. Presumed no.1 overall pick Cooper Flagg is the engine that powers both sides of the ball. Flagg, who just turned 18 in December, is the 2nd ranked CBB player according to BPR on EvanMiya.com and he is the only one in the Top-10 who isn’t a multi-year starter let alone reclassified Freshman.

The Blue Devils’ ceiling with three true Freshmen starters (Flagg, Khaman Maluach, & Kon Kneuppel) could be just as high as Auburn’s, but that same youth is what should scare you about March Madness. We still need to see if Coach K rubbed off on Jon Scheyer for him to be able to push the right buttons to win six in a row in the Tourney too. Especially after losing to NC State in both the ACC Tournament and NCAA Tournament last season.

4. Tennessee

Highs: Undefeated, beat Baylor, won at Illinois, blew out Arkansas

Lows: none?

Betting Odds: 10-1

The Vols have played just three Quad 1 or Quad 2 games this season. Now, they have won those by an average of 13 points despite two of them being true road games.

Chaz Lanier is a stud and filling the Dalton Knecht superstar role, Zakai Zeigler is still one of the 3 best guards in College Basketball, and Tennessee again has a Top-5 Defense in Basketball. This season is such a testament to what Rick Barnes has built in Knoxville that they can lose 4 starters including a NPOY candidate from a no.2 seed and be better.

We will be collecting a lot more data on Tennessee over the course of the grueling SEC schedule this year. They for sure won’t be undefeated forever, and I won’t be surprised if they are knocked down a peg or two. Still, Tennessee’s defense is good enough, their core has the experience of a National Title team, and they probably will have a chip on their shoulder after playing perfect and people still picking other teams as better than them.

5. Alabama

Highs: Beat Houston & Illinois, spanked UNC in Chapel Hill, dominated Oklahoma

Lows: lost to Purdue at Mackey, lost to Oregon by 2pts

Betting Odds: 15-1

I’m not out on Alabama!

The preseason no.2 team has slid to the no.10 range in NET, KenPom, etc. for a couple reasons.

One, the defense isn’t up to where it needs to be. Alabama plays a super fast pace creating a ton of chances for opponents including 12 or more second chances off offensive rebounds a game. The Crimson Tide hardly force any turnovers and foul a ton. Still, Bama made the Final Four last year with the 111th ranked defense so a Top-50 one is an upgrade even if it’s not as good as Nate Oats wants it to be.

Two, the offense isn’t where it needs to be for them to be not-elite defensively. If Alabama is a Solar System then Mark Sears is the Sun and there are 8 other planets swirling around him at atmospheric popping speed. Does that make sense? No, of course not. Just understand that Bama has one of the most talented rosters in CBB and their two losses happened when Sears’ had bad games. The Tide survived when he put up a donut against Illinois, but Bama needs Sears to be a NPOY candidate to win it all.

Three, the Crimson Tide challenged themselves in non-con and they are kind of being punished for it. Half of Alabama’s games have been against Quad 1 & 2 opponents. The losses to teams in the mid 20s of rankings drag them down for now, but other teams will catch up when they lose road games too.

I don’t bet Futures (partially because I don’t have the patience and also value usually isn’t there like you think), but I put one on Alabama because their odds are too long.

Tier II: They’re Damn Close

This next group isn’t quite the level of the favorites, but they are damn close to them. To win it all these teams would need help, but it wouldn’t feel like a fluke.

6. UConn

Highs: Wins over Gonzaga, at Texas and Baylor

Lows: 0-3 at Maui including losses to Colorado & Dayton

Betting Odds: 25-1

Do I have UConn too high? Probably.

Am I also scared that I have them too low? Yes.

The Huskies had a complete collapse in Maui. They’ve also passed every test since then with wins over Gonzaga, at Texas, at home over Baylor plus four Big East games too.

UConn is weird. They are definitively talented… but not as talented as the past two Title teams. The immaculate Hurley offensive engine still hums producing a ton of assisted shots and open shots (evidenced by their elite 2pt & 3pt shooting percentages). Alex Karaban has evolved into the no.1 option and his versatility at the 4 position continues to be a nightmare matchup for almost every college team. Liam McKneeley & Solo Ball are the two NBA prospects behind him.

Still, the interior play and overall guard play is shaky. Samson Johnson is the starter and the better defender while Tarris Reed is for sure the better offensive player but is also the only other true plus defender on the team. Currently, UConn is ranked no.2 in KenPom adjusted offensive efficiency and 134th in defensive efficiency.

That stat should be enough to eliminate the Huskies as three-peat contenders, but this is one of those moments where I need to see the giant be slain before I declare it. If somehow UConn just ‘locks in’ all of a sudden and is a Top 25 defense than this team should horrify you like the teams from the past two seasons.

7. Houston

Highs: Beating Oklahoma State & TCU?

Lows: close losses to Bama, Oregon, Auburn

Betting Odds: 10-1

Results Matter.

When you lose your only three close games of the season and also your only Quad 1 games of the season, you can’t be ranked a Tier 1 contender. But KenPom, NET, BartTorvik, EvanMiya disagree…

The Cougars have potentially broken the CBB Stat Nerd algorithms. Houston has lost to Alabama, Oregon and Auburn by 5 points or fewer so far and have no wins over a Quad 1 opponent. No joke TCU is Houston’s best win so far.

Kelvin Sampson’s team has mastered this adjusted efficiency game as Houston has finished as runner ups in KenPom rankings the past three years without making a Final Four in any of them. Something about their truly great defense and rebounding makes these stat nerds love them. Oh that and them padding stats by mauling absolutely every non-tournament team that has to play them.

Yet, when the Cougars have lined up against the best in one-and-done formats they don’t come out victorious. Houston’s formula is exceptionally strong at racking up regular season wins and racking up high fake rankings.

Maybe in a best-of-7 or even best-of-3 setting Houston would have a couple Titles, but Top-16 level teams can get up for them and battle with them in single elimination.

Still, this Houston team is probably unlucky with their close games all going the wrong way. This Cougar team is a demonstrably better 3pt shooting team than previous iterations. However, when their defense isn’t enough to pulverize you, the Cougs rely on an offense of a contested midrange jumpers and a high chance of an offensive rebound.

It is a terrible pick to predict Houston losing before a Sweet Sixteen, but it’s not a high ROI pick an offense like theirs to pull out four close wins against Top teams once they reach that point. The sacred CBB website algorithms show that Houston should be due for one, but I think differently.

8. Marquette

Highs: 5 Quad 1 wins already including at Maryland, over Purdue, & Wisconsin

Lows: two true road losses to Dayton & Iowa State

Betting Odds: 31-1

Marquette is a quintessential Top-10 team.

The Golden Eagles are good at offense and defense (Top 16 KenPom in both), they are lead by a super guard in Kam Jones averaging 20ppg, 6.5apg & 5rpg, they confidently win the games they’re supposed to and have only dropped a few road games to high level competition.

The Title vision for Marquette is easy to see. Kam Jones is their Kemba candidate, the defense is turned up to 10 (especially the forced turnovers) and David Joplin, Stevie Mitchell, & Chase Ross hit enough threes to outscore the best opponents.

Being a Big Ten blogger I have a real worry about what happens if they face a team with a true center or a team who can rebound like Houston. For them to win it all I think Marquette will need some bracket luck… but this team does all the little things so well a Final Four run seems highly likely.

9. Florida

Highs: Started 13-0, best win is UNC?

Lows: Lost first real Quad 1 game to Kentucky

Betting Odds: 20-1

It’s unfair to completely dismiss the Gators despite their soft schedule.

North Carolina was supposed to be much better (same with Wake Forest and Virginia) and 13-0 is still 13-0. Plus, Florida did it in style winning all but the UNC game by double digits.

However, Florida also lost their first true blue test at Rupp Arena this past Saturday. Still, it took Kentucky hitting nearly half of their threes (including 7 from Koby Brea alone) and 106 points to make sure the Cats beat the Gators.

Florida is the real deal and will win plenty of games in the best ever(?) SEC this year. The Alijah Martin & Walter Clayton combo is probably the best backcourt in the country (even better than Iowa State, Gonzaga, Marquette, etc.) and they are probably the best rebounding team in the country with 15 offensive boards a game and 45 overall. Their defense forces low percentage looks inside the arc and outside of it.

I don’t believe in Florida more than the teams above them, but I also don’t think they have as many weaknesses as the next group behind them. That sentence might be hard to grasp but that is typically how power rankings work.

Tier III: I Have Some Doubts

This group has the mix of talent, wins, pedigree, etc. to visualize them winning it all and also obvious warts holding them back.

10. Kentucky

Highs: Wins over Duke, Florida & Gonzaga

Lows: Loss at Clemson and blown out by Ohio State

Betting Odds: 20-1

My qualms with Kentucky are based on the fact that I don’t know who their best player is and they don’t either.

Some games it’s Otega Oweh, once or twice its been Jaxson Robinson, when he’s on fire it’s definitely Kobe Brea, and often it feels like they trust Andrew Carr the most. All of that is still a roundabout way of saying they don’t have a definitive the guy to go to at the end of games.

Kentucky is a greater than the sum of their parts team who may or may not be overachieving like crazy thru the first half of the season. None of their players will be 1st Team All-SEC guys. None of them will be round 1 draft picks (unless Brea gets taken late for a team desperate for shooting).

My hate is actual praise for Coach Pope who is having a tremendous year 1 so far. Kentucky is killing it in the coaching categories (assists per game, turnovers per game, rebounding, 2 point FG %) and it’s due to Pope’s system and all these players buying in.

We have seen the Kentucky’s best can beat Duke and Florida. The Ohio State game also shows what a cold night could mean for this team.

I don’t think Kentucky can have their best night four to six times in a row like they would need to win it all, but man if I am a no.1 seed I would HATE to see Kentucky as the no.4 seed in my region.

11. Kansas

Highs: Wins over Duke, Michigan State

Lows: Loss at home to West Virginia, at Missouri and at Creighton

Betting Odds: 25-1

Realistically, this is about as bad as this season could have gone for Kansas so far.

Big name transfer guards in AJ Storr, Rylan Griffen, & Zeke Mayo have not fixed the offense and have actually completely stalled it. We are now in year 2 of wondering if the Hunter Dickinson-KJ Adams-Dajuan Harris trio is actually good and if not which one should be benched saga. Two Cooper Flagg turnovers in the final few possessions lead to a win at Duke really salvaging an otherwise abysmal first 15 games from the Jayhawks.

Now, the UCF game showed some light on what KU can be. Kansas obliterated a somewhat decent UCF team in Orlando with a big game from Dickinson, Storr & Griffen pouring in points off the bench and Flory Bidunga being an absolute whirling dervish as the backup center (he had 6 blocks in 21 minutes) to solidify good team defense.

There is a good National Title caliber team in this Kansas team, and it isn’t about Bill Self finding it but rather can these players in a slump bust out of it in time.

12. Gonzaga

Highs: Wins over Baylor, San Diego State

Lows: Losses to West Virginia, Kentucky, UConn, UCLA

Betting Odds: 16-1

The Zags have one of my favorite rosters in College Basketball this year. They also have the most disappointing string of results of teams I expected great things from.

Gonzaga is 2-4 in Quad 1 games so far and the wins have come against a fine Baylor team and a solid San Diego State team. They’ve lost to all the Sweet 16 candidates they’ve faced in Kentucky UConn & UCLA but they also had West Virginia cook them in the first game of Battle 4 Atlantis.

Now, Gonzaga will go into their last WCC schedule with probably 0 quad 1 opportunities to prove themselves until the Tournament. Ryan Nembhard is awesome and this roster is improved, but the defense hasn’t been there against the best teams and they haven’t proven that out scoring them will work.

Tier IV: Final Four Goals

The remaining teams could win the National Title if they’re hot, the bracket breaks right, basically everything goes their way. However, the fans are more likely to feel good by setting Final Four as the goal.

13. Illinois

Highs: Dominated Arkansas, blew out Oregon in Eugene

Lows: Lost to Tennessee at home, controlled by Bama, OT loss to Northwestern

Betting Odds: 31-1

The Illini are the hardest team to gauge on this list.

Brad Underwood’s team is full of young NBA talent and for better or worse they play like an NBA team. Isolations, static spread pick and roll, one pass then three point attempt possessions, etc. Gone are the days of the beautiful flex offense (same one that Auburn’s offense runs) and even last years booty ball is more appealing than the math argument that Illinois is operating now.

Still, Illinois is a fantastic rebounding team and unlike plenty of NBA teams plays very good team defense too. Those attributes will travel and help come March, but can this team win when they go 20% from three? When they shoot 50% like they did at Oregon they can beat anyone. How many of those nights can you really expect in the Tournament?

14. Michigan

Highs: Win at Wisconsin, blew out Xavier, Win at USC

Lows: Fluky loss to Oklahoma, close losses to Wake Forest & Arkansas

Betting Odds: 40-1

Michigan doesn’t quite have the signature wins on the resume yet, but they pass both the numbers and eye test as being legit.

Danny Wolf is a 7-foot point guard who (through a pick and roll with fellow 7-footer Vlad Goldin) has unlocked Michigan’s Top 25 pick-your-poison offense. The twin tower 7 footers have lead to top level efficiency from 2 point on offense and high end defense of the paint on the other.

I have worries about Michigan in the tournament when their best guard is a their 7-foot power forward. Tre Donaldson, Nimari Burnett, and Roddy Gayle round out one of the best starting 5s in the country, and while each of them can have a big night any given game none of them are truly reliable. Can any of them resemble a more consistent player?

Michigan’s path to a title revolves around Gayle reaching his ceiling or a manic March from Donaldson in addition to the Goldin-Wolf two man game resembling some of the unguardable actions we have seen from UConn in recent seasons.

15. Texas A&M

Highs: Blowout of Ohio State, win over Purdue in Indy, win over Texas Tech

Lows: loss to UCF on opening night, loss to Oregon in Vegas

Betting Odds: 65-1

Can we have the National Title discussion without the Aggies?

Yes.

Should we? Probably not.

Texas A&M is a nuisance to play. They play terrific, antagonistic defense forcing plenty of turnovers and blocking a handful of shots. The Aggies are relentless on the offensive glass collecting a nation-leading 16.6 a game. In general, Buzz Williams squad is strong and long and tiring to go against for 40 minutes.

The Aggies are lead by Wade Taylor who (more often rightly then wrongly) believes he is the best player on the court. SMU transfer Zhuric Phelps has been gaining momentum as Taylor’s deputy. There’s also more room for growth from Minnesota transfer Pharrel Payne who is a handful for every big man to deal with.

Texas A&M is steadily good. Their 6-2 Quad 1&2 record proves it. Can their offense evolve enough to be something truly great?

16. Mississippi State

Highs: Dismantled Pitt, won at SMU & Memphis

Lows: Neutral court loss to Butler

Betting Odds: 65-1

I’m putting a 7th SEC team in my Super Sixteen and it could’ve been more!

I have serious concerns about the muscle down low (and the actual production I guess too) for the Bulldogs, but State has one of the best backcourts this season and one of the best I can remember.

Josh Hubbard might not be an All-American, but he will be All-SEC (again). Claudell Harris and Riley Kugel have slotted in perfectly from Boston College and Florida respectively. KeShawn Murphy has been pretty good at the 5 and has been fantastic defensively. Chris Jans’ team has been doing this without Penn State transfer Kanye Clary who’s been out due to injury.

State does all the things that good teams do. Rebound well, get downhill on offense, force turnovers, dish assists without turning it over, etc. Like a lot of these teams in the Final Four goals category, the Bulldogs are very good, can enough people make the improvements needed to become great?

In the Waiting Room

The list continues! The last five teams of the 21 teams that matter are in the Waiting Room outside of the Super Sixteen. Some of these teams I would rank lower than teams in the cut for time section, but they’re here because they have a better shot to win the National Title than the teams I cut.

Realistically, Baylor once again does not pass the defensive sniff test to win it all, but the potential growth from Freshmen VJ Edgecombe & Robert Wright III cannot be understated.

I am not leaving off a team like Memphis with the guards they have and the way they tested themselves in non-conference. The only formula for the Tigers to win it all is like the Kemba and Shabazz UConn teams with PJ Haggerty & Tyrese Hunter being the Heroes.

Kadary Richmond, RJ Luis, and Rick Pitino are too tempting to cross off St. John’s. A National Championship is a huge stretch, but this team is still figuring it out and they are a couple broken shooting slumps from being up there.

If defense, NBA talent, guard play and shooting is what you need to win it all… Maryland has all that on the right night. Now, the NBA talent is in the frontcourt with Derik Queen and Ja’Kobi Gillespie can have duds like he did in the loss to Washington, but the models love the Terps for a reason.

Alabama at this point last year also had 5 losses just like Arizona does this year and technically was the closest to knocking off UConn on their title run. Tommy Lloyd’s tournament resume and Caleb Love still being on this team should be enough to not include the Wildcats, but there is too much talent to say that they don’t matter and can’t potentially turn it around.

Cut for Time

I made the mistake of putting a 1-loss, Top 20 ranked Oklahoma in my teams who mattered list around this time last year and they proceeded to have a losing record in Big 12 play and miss the tournament. This year’s Sooners are much less battle tested and stat out in the mid-40s of KenPom & Bart Torvik… I am not falling for it this year.

UCLA simply does not have enough offense to expect them to win 6 straight games in March. I am regrettably putting Cincinnati in this same category as well.

Oregon is a well-rounded team in all facets and will be a good bet to make the Sweet 16 but is a terrible one to win the National Championship as they aren’t elite at anything.

Michigan State, Clemson, Ole Miss, Pitt round out the teams capable or perhaps likely to make a Sweet Sixteen, but don’t have the horses to win a National Title.

A Johnell Davis resurrection would make me believe in a potential Arkansas run, but the youth and Calipari of it all makes them not matter.

Purdue might have two 1st Team All-Big Ten players, but there isn’t enough support around them to win six games in March.

Texas Tech is the team I feel worst about leaving off the list, but despite their above average statistical profile they haven’t beaten the good teams on their incredibly weak schedule so hard to see them winning it all.

North Carolina isn’t good enough down low, or have enough defense or shooters to be a Title threat, but their name brand and preseason ranking requires a sentence dismissing them.

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