Midweek Madness: A Fast Break Recap as we barrel into Big Ten Play

by Jordan Beckley

Hello! Welcome back!

I enjoyed a little bit of a Christmas break taking a couple weeks off from my hobby as I spent more time traveling, buying gifts, enjoying family time, etc. but College Basketball did not get lazy and take a few weeks off!

Well except for this past week or two of lackluster games, but the kids deserve Christmas too. Note to Roger Goodell making Teams play a NFL game on Wednesday… not every sport needs to be playing on Christmas day!

Anyways, since the last time I posted each Big Ten team played their first two conference games, the SEC has firmly established itself as the best conference, Jim Larranaga retired midseason in Miami, North Carolina was a bubble team and then it wasn’t, Arizona definitely is, and the favorite to win the Big Ten has changed hands a couple times.

So, let’s hustle back and catch up on all the action we missed.

I’m going to do things differently this Midweek Madness and give one thought on all 18 Big Ten teams as we change from 2024 to 2025 and change from nonconference play to Big Ten play.

Who’s hot? Who’s not? Did anyone waste a bunch of NIL money? Who will be on Bubble Watch all of conference play? Who shouldn’t worry about it? And who do I think will come out as Big Ten Champion?

For a look at the broader spectrum of College Basketball, I will have a new Super Sixteen to kick off the new year soon, but today is all about the Big Ten.

Should Michigan be the favorite to win the Big Ten?

Dusty May has turned the Big Ten on its head by a simple Big on Big pick and roll.

Between Danny Wolf and Vlad Goldin there are two 7 footers and nearly 500 pounds for two college Bigs to have to make tough decisions that they aren’t used to making. Chase over the screen and Wolf is going downhill to the basket 2 on 1. Switch and Wolf finds Goldin slipping to the basket with Wolf’s man behind the play. Double or hard hedge and either one of Michigan’s guards gets an open three or a guard has to defend Goldin in the post.

Wolf has been a savant for the Wolverines and basically their starting point guard. His overall skill as a passer, ball handler, scorer and elite rebounder (while having another big on the floor) has transformed Michigan to be a contender in May’s first season. The two bigs have Michigan in the Top 10% of 2pt FG% defensively and Top 3% offensively on 2pt FG% as an offense.

The Wolverines are a Top 10 KenPom team who thrives at a fast pace while still playing uber efficiently. Still, I have my reservations about crowning them Big Ten favorites. I don’t know if I can trust a team with three guards with consistency issues like Roddy Gayle, Nimari Burnett, and Tre Donaldson. Michigan turns the ball over a ton. They are a good not a great long distance shooting team. Michigan has split their one possession games this season, but all the losses have fallen in non conference games and the wins were in the two Big Ten games. Will that luck continue?

Right now Michigan is tied with UCLA at 4-1 to win the Big Ten. The Wolverines are legit and are a for sure Tournament team, but do we really think Michigan will win the Big Ten?

Great Osobor is… fine? Washington isn’t

Great Osobor made plenty of headlines for making a reported $2 million to follow head coach Danny Sprinkle to Washington and so far the return on investment has been even?

Osobor is essentially the same player as last year as he is scoring a little less, passing a little better, shooting a touch worse and rebounding and defending nearly the exact same, but the Mountain West Player of the Year will be nowhere near All-Big Ten awards with his current numbers and that might have more to do with his teammates.

Nine different players have started multiple games for Washington. The two leading scorers besides Osobor are Tyler Harris (Sophomore) and Zoom Diallo (Freshman) who often have been bench players. DJ Davis has been a huge miss, Franck Kepnang is hurt again, nobody can really shoot from three and nobody seems to pass besides Osobor.

Washington isn’t a good team and will battle with Minnesota for last place this season. This isn’t all Osobor’s fault, but you will see some fingers point blame to the big moneymaker especially if he doesn’t start scoring more (just one 20pt game so far).

Ohio State needs to double down on Bruce Thornton-John Mobley duo

The Buckeyes are confusing! December included a 20+ point loss to Maryland, a 30+ point demolishing by Auburn, and also a confident 20 point win over no.4 ranked Kentucky?

Without diving into how those make more sense looking at KenPom rankings over AP rankings, Ohio State more so doesn’t know who they are. Aaron Bradshaw has missed a bunch of games, I’m guessing Meechie Johnson will miss a bunch of games too, eight different players have started a game… a team with just four returning players and only one returning starter unsurprisingly needs some time for role definition.

The more games we play the clearer that Ohio State’s best players are Bruce Thornton, Devin Royal and freshman guard John Mobley Jr. They’re the three leading scorers for a reason and they are noticeably higher in Box Plus Minus than the rest of the rotation (save Evan Mahaffey). Saying that the Bucks would be better if those three were more consistent is actually not a unique or smart observation. These three players are inconsistent and Mobley Jr. is an erratic shooter, but this team might be best when you don’t know who of these three will explode. Give them each the opportunity each game and find out.

The Kentucky win gets OSU back on track to making the tournament, setting a goal of 10 Big Ten wins keeps them there.

Let’s not forget about Wisconsin

I think it’s easy to forget about the Badgers right now.

Maryland, Oregon, UCLA, and Michigan are sexier teams playing better basketball right now and Wisconsin’s “hey we are better than you thought” stretch came before those teams had theirs. But Wisconsin at 35-1 odds to win the Big Ten is out of line with the very possible path that the Badgers backdoor a Big Ten Title.

Greg Gard has exceeded expectations again with a breakout from another transfer guard in John Tonje and a flood of free throws. People are off the scent of Wisconsin after dropping three straight to Michigan, Marquette and Illinois. The Badgers need more from Max Klesmit who has slumped this season as a shooter, but their repeat opponents this year are Iowa, Illinois and Minnesota and they already played at Illinois.

If they win a couple of the single matchups versus other top Big Ten teams (Purdue, UCLA, Oregon) and the rest of the conference beats each other up… don’t be surprised if we see Wisconsin sneak into earning a share of the Big Ten Title.

How many tight wins can the Bruins scratch together?

We entered the season saying if blank, blank and blank go right then they probably can win the Big Ten this season. Well what if the offense doesn’t take off, they don’t make that many more threes and Dylan Andrews isn’t an All Big Ten performer and they win the Big Ten anyway?

UCLA is tied with Michigan and Michigan State at 2-0 and 1st place in the Big Ten right now despite having the 60th best offense on KenPom because their no.4 ranked defense is that good. Now the Bruins might be escaping with wins too often as they went 2-1 against Oregon, Arizona and North Carolina all in games decided by one possession or less. Still, UCLA are in these games because of their defense and are in the hunt for a Big Ten title.

You can tell which way I’m leaning. I think we look at UCLA a lot differently if Sebastian Mack doesn’t bank in a three in Eugene. By the end of the season it’s much more likely that Arizona and North Carolina are middling bubble teams than back in the Top 10. This Bruin team can scrap and claw with anyone, but without a jump from Andrews or team shooting will they be able to win enough clutch games to eek out a Big Ten Championship?

Minnesota is the saddest team in the Big Ten

There is no bright spot for Minnesota.

Dawson Garcia is good at offense and still bad at defense. Frank Mitchell has been a significant downgrade at center. Mike Mitchell Jr. hasn’t been healthy. Lu’Cye Patterson is shooting 33.6% from the field on double digit attempts a game. The rest of the guys don’t bring enough (Brennan Rigsby, Femi Odukale, Kadyn Betts, etc.). Parker Fox is a nice 6th man, but man is it a bad team if he is your 2nd best player in plus minus.

Washington isn’t a good team and is noticeably better on offense and defense than Minnesota. Nobody was hurt more by the transfer portal than Minnesota this offseason. I’m sorry Gopher fans and I’m sorry Ben Johnson, but this team ain’t it.

Maryland might be the Big Ten’s best chance at a Final Four

Okay, here is the only hot take you will see in this article.

Take a second to read it, get upset, think of a team you like better and see if you like my explanation.

Illinois has a higher ceiling than the Terps, Purdue and Oregon have higher floors, Michigan has played at a similar level but won a couple of the games against their best opponents… so why Maryland? Because the nerds say so of course!

Maryland is the highest rated KenPom team in the Big Ten currently. Kevin Willard’s team again boasts a stellar defense (no.6 currently) but this year the boys can shoot. Maryland (along with Iowa) is in the Top 4 of the Big Ten in three pointers per game and in 3pt%. Ja’Kobi Gillespie, Selton Miguel, and Rodney Rice are all plus shooters at high volumes. The offense (with a middling schedule) is Top 10 in points per game. Julian Reese is still an uber-efficient offensive center and defensive wrecking ball. All of that and I haven’t mentioned they have a Top-10 NBA pick and game changing forward in Derik Queen who is putting up 17pts, 8reb, 2ast, and 2 stocks a game.

So, Maryland plays elite top notch defense, shoots the three well with three above average guards and also has a better frontcourt than almost ever team they will face highlighted by a true-blue chip NBA prospect? The Terps aren’t perfect and I don’t think they will win the Big Ten, but if there is going to be a Big Ten team in the Final Four its most likely them.

Will Illinois become more than an NBA Scout team?

I am lower on Illinois than national average and here’s why.

I hate their offense. The Illini shoot 5 more threes than anyone in the Big Ten but are 16th (3rd worst) in the conference at actually making them. Most possessions are isolations, single pick and rolls, or one pass and chuck turns down the court. Underwood has stressed Pace and that has vaulted up numbers.

Illinois is one of the best rebounding teams in the country (no.2 in total and no. 1 in defensive rebounds) and that has covered up some flaws. Will they keep that up against Big Ten frontcourts? Illinois is 15th in assists per game in the Big Ten and only has three more assists a game than turnovers.

Overall, Illinois has put all the onus on their NBA talent. The burden has primarily fallen on Kasparas Jakucionis who is absolutely awesome, but it’s unrealistic to expect the same sort of success they saw with super seniors Terrence Shannon Jr and Marcus Domask last year with true freshmen Jakucionis, Tomislav Ivisic and Will Riley.

Veteran guard Kylan Boswell had a very good game against Missouri in the Braggin Rights rivalry, but even that game down to a contested KJ turnaround midrange jumper with less than 30 seconds. It’s just not a formula for success especially in a win-or-go-home setting of March Madness.

Illinois has showcased their talent exceptionally well and these kids will get drafted and maybe they will get more recruits now too, but I’m not sure Illini fans want to turn into late-stage Calipari Kentucky teams.

Penn State is a Tournament Team

Shoutout Mike Rhoades!

The Nittany Lions have turned last year’s “better than you think” team into a no.10 seed or better in March Madness. Ace Baldwin is back and is the best guard in the Big Ten as Evan Miya.com has him as the 6th best player in the country and the 2nd most indispensable.

But it’s not just Baldwin. Zach Hicks is the Big Ten’s best player nobody talks about. Nick Kern is gunning for 6th man of the year in the Big Ten. Yanic Konan has been one of the better transfers in the conference. Puff Johnson finally made a leap. The rotation fills out nicely with Freddie Dilione, Kachi Nzeh and D’Marco Dunn.

The Nittany Lions are long and disruptive forcing a Big Ten leading 10 steals a game while being efficient scorers (Top 5 in FG%, 3pt% and eFG%). Simply, Penn State is a good team. The win over Purdue at home shows their ceiling. The loss at Rutgers shows they can’t take nights off if they still want to be a tournament team come March.

Rutgers is (easily) the Worst Defense in the Big Ten

The Scarlet Knights are in a familiar spot of being on the outside looking into the Tournament field. However, it’s from an unfamiliar reason of their defense being horrible.

Yes, a Steve Pikiell team gives up the most points per game of any Big Ten team. More than USC, Washington, Minnesota or even Fran McCaffery’s Iowa. In fact, Rutgers gives up more points per game despite giving the opponent 4 less possessions a game than Iowa does while also scoring 10 points a game less than the Hawkeyes put up. The Scarlet Knight starting 5 only has two players who are noticeably higher than Fletcher Loyer in Defensive Box plus minus. Overall, they only have three players who are playing better as a defender than Loyer.

It’s not a winning formula and that’s why Rutgers sits at 7-5 with 0 Quad 1 wins and losses to Princeton and Kennesaw State. Dylan Harper and Ace Bailey will hear their names called in the Top 3 of the NBA draft but if Rutgers fans don’t get an opportunity to see those two play in March Madness, this season will definitely be a failure.

Nebraska might make the March Madness over Creighton

I don’t have a ton of Nebraska thoughts.

They’re solid. Brice Williams is really good at basketball. Juwan Gary is a menace. They play a ton of guys and each can be hard to prepare for. Nebraska isn’t going to make the Sweet 16 or contend for a Big Ten Title, but they’ll ruin your Tuesday night when your favorite team travels to Lincoln and blows them out (see Indiana).

The Huskers are firmly in the fringe Tournament hopeful group with Northwestern, Iowa, Indiana, etc. I do think it’s funny that Nebraska’s win over rival Creighton in Omaha (who were in the Top 15 at the time) might be the reason Creighton doesn’t get in the tournament and Nebraska does.

You should bet on Oregon to win the Big Ten

I can pretty quickly rattle off a reason why most contenders won’t win the Big Ten.

UCLA can’t score, Illinois is too young, Good teams score easily on Michigan, Michigan State can’t shoot, Purdue doesn’t have enough ballhandling, etc. But I can’t give you one for the Ducks.

Oregon is the most balanced top team in the conference. They are the only team with a Top-25 KenPom rating in offense and defense. They have 8-9 above average players who vary from traditional guard archetypes to rangy, plus shooting forwards to controlling back to the basket bigs. Coach Altman can play several different styles with this roster and do all of them pretty well.

The Ducks are the highest ranked team in the Big Ten and are a banked in three away from being 13-0. Yet, their odds are 6th best in the conference at +850? I get that the travel is going to be brutal for Oregon going all over the East Coast & Midwest and I get that they’ve already lost a crucial game at home to UCLA, but they should not have odds this low. This is the team you should bet to win the Big Ten right now.

Indiana needs to prove they belong in the NCAAT in Big Ten Play

The Hoosiers enter the back-half of the season at 10-3 with 18 Big Ten games left to play and firmly outside of March Madness.

The preseason no. 17 team had a purposely weak non-conference schedule with one real test stretch in the Battle for Atlantis. Indiana failed that test horribly getting blown out by Louisville and Gonzaga in back to back days before sneaking past Providence in the 7th place game. Combine that with a thrashing in Lincoln by bubble team Nebraska and the Hoosiers are 1-3 in just 4 Quad 1&2 opportunities.

That’s not cutting it.

The good news is that the Hoosiers will have plenty of opportunities to prove themselves as the Big Ten will not be short of more Quad 1&2 games. Mackenzie Mgbako has looked good in year 2 and the bigs in Oumar Ballo and Malik Reneau have been very efficient. Still, IU is a bottom third team in offensive rating and defensive rating and are 10 spots behind Northwestern in KenPom as the Big Ten’s 14th ranked team.

Indiana has all of it’s work to do in Big Ten play.

Will Iowa play more games at their ceiling or at their floor?

Iowa is firmly in the Bubble conversation after an up and down first 13 games.

The Hawkeyes play a volatile style under Coach McCaffery. Launching a ton of threes (even if you’re good at them usually) and not being great defensively can lead to poor results. Iowa saw themselves struggle from deep and dropped a neutral site game to Utah State (who is for sure good, but is also on the Bubble). The Hawks had a dominant first half versus Northwestern and then choked in the 2nd half before a Josh Dix miracle saved a win in Carver-Hawkeye.

Iowa’s best had them be one possession from winning at Michigan and kept them in it all the way til the end against Top-5 Iowa State. This year’s team is better than last year’s NIT qualifying team which showed more bad games perhaps because of youth. If Sophomore guards Brock Harding and Pryce Sandfort can be more consistent guys than not, Iowa should return to the Tournament this year.

USC won’t be the worst Big Ten team

There’s not a lot of bright spots for Southern California.

The Trojans are not good in year one of Eric Musselman. USC is 9-4 despite playing the 298th ranked schedule in the country. Desmond Claude has been good not great. Saint Thomas has been erratic and inefficient. Josh Cohen has done his best but the no-other-big-men thing of it all is about to sink the Trojans.

The Big Ten is much deeper in the frontcourt than I expected in the preseason and USC isn’t prepared to handle it. They are a fine shooting team (not enough to cover the losses in the paint) and nowhere good enough in team defense to make up for it.

After losing 71-36 (yes they scored less than 40 points in a 40 minute game) to St. Mary’s, USC beating Washington in Seattle by 15 is a nice sign and one that proves the Trojans won’t be the Big Ten’s worst team… but that might be the only bright side of Year 0 for the Muss Bus.

Purdue is Vulnerable, but not Bad

People were worried about Purdue going from All-American Zach Edey to Trey Kaufman Renn, and perhaps not enough attention was paid to them going from Lance Jones, Mason Gillis and TKR as role players to Camden Heide, Myles Colvin, CJ Cox and GiCarri Harris as role players.

There’s a formula to beating Purdue. Full court pressure to waste shot clock, ball screen traps to force the ball out of Braden Smith’s hands, blanket Fletcher Loyer on the three point line, ultimately making TKR or one of the other Boilermakers be the playmakers, and score easy points in transition from the eventual Purdue turnovers.

Easy, right? Not really.

This flawed Purdue team is still a Top 10 KenPom offense because Braden Smith, Fletcher Loyer and TKR are that good. Braden Smith is an All-American guard who has combined for less than 20 points and assists just 5 of Purdue’s games and they’ve gone 4-1 in those. Fletcher Loyer is shooting 44% from 2 and 47% from three. TKR is pushing for a 1st Team All-Big Ten nod with 18+ ppg.

Strong defensive teams in Marquette, Texas A&M, Penn State and Auburn have all been able to execute the formula in home or neutral site games. Ask Alabama, Maryland or Ole Miss how easy it is to win when you follow that game plan.

The Boilermakers are 9-4 with the 2nd ranked Strength of Schedule in the country. They aren’t getting enough from the role players, but their Big 3 are good enough to win any game in front of them. Now can Matt Painter get enough from the other guys to pull out a couple extra road wins and win the Big Ten?

Northwestern can absolutely steal a March Madness spot

Zach Edey’s departure cast a large shadow on Purdue, but Boo Buie’s exit from Evanston might be just as significant.

The story of this season for Northwestern was partially going to be a low-stakes Belichik-Brady but with Coach Collins and Buie of who’s more important to the recent success. The odds were stacked against Collins with another deep Big Ten conference, only a couple transfers and an extended Brooks Barnhizer injury delaying his season debut. But you blink and Northwestern is 10-3 and is in the mix for a March Madness spot as Bracketology has them in the Next Four Out.

Fairfield transfer Jalen Leach has picked up the slack of Buie and is growing in confidence and chemistry with each game. Barnhizer has been a bat out of hell since returning, scoring 20+ points in 7 of his 9 games as well as having double doubles in 7 games too. But the steadiest force all season has been last year’s sixth man who was forced to start halfway through in Nick Martinelli. Now, fully comfortable in a starting role Martinelli has become an All Big Ten candidate averaging 20+ points a game.

Northwestern has a couple of solid wins in UNLV, Georgia Tech, Depaul and a stellar win over Illinois in OT at Welsh-Ryan. Their loss at Dayton (without Barnhizer) continues to look better while the loss to Butler doesn’t, but man do the Wildcats wish they could have gotten that game at Iowa.

Matt Nicholson is as steady as ever at center for the Cats, but Ty Berry has yet to reach equilibrium returning from his season ending injury last year. If Berry rounds into form, Northwestern has one of the best starting 5s in the conference and should battle all year for a third straight March Madness appearance.

Is this Michigan State resurgence real?

In my head, I had (probably unfairly) already crossed off Michigan State before what has been a sudden rejuvenation for them.

The Spartans have won 6 straight (5 of them by 15+ points) and have climbed up to no.18 in the AP Poll. Inserting Tre Holloman and Jaxon Kohler into the starting lineup for Xavier Booker and Frankie Fidler has been more productive for basically all four parties. MSU wins by playing good defense, protecting the rim, rebounding very well, making all of their free throws and hitting a tremendous percentage of their shots inside the arc from an above average amount of assists.

But… Michigan State also is only 1-2 in Quad 1 games and have 0 wins over teams currently ranked. The Spartans are almost the worst shooting team in the country at 28% from three. Personally, I can’t believe in a team with Jaden Akins as it’s best player.

This is the highest Spartan fans will feel about their team all year. MSU’s next 5 games are at Ohio State, home Washington, at Northwestern, home for Penn State, and at Illinois. Let’s check back in after those 5 and see if Michigan State is closer to a no.4 seed or a no.8 seed.

There you have it! Just under 4000 words with thoughts on all 18 Big Ten teams as we transition to 2025 and the heart of the Big Ten calendar.

I am selling my fake Illinois & Michigan State stock, I’m keeping a careful eye on UCLA & Michigan with my hand on the sell button, I’ve already liquidated my Rutgers position, I am holding my Purdue & Wisconsin shares, and I am buying futures for Oregon & Maryland.

It is looking like Ohio State, Penn State, Iowa, Northwestern, Nebraska and maybe also Indiana and Rutgers will be battling the Bubble all year with realistically 2 or 3 spots to divvy between them.

Meanwhile we get to see if Washington & Minnesota eclipse 3.5 total conference wins combined. My guess: the under! Oh and the Big Ten Title race is as open as it’s been in the past half decade or longer.

So as we put the bow on College Football bowl season, don’t forget that College Basketball exists and is very fun! Come back soon as I’ll be covering all the twists, turns, and upsets in this weird Big Ten season on Midweek Madness.