Big Ten Tiers, Title Race & Bubble Update after the Halfway Point

Posted on by thefloorslap

by Jordan Beckley

Hey! Longtime no see.

I haven’t done a Big Ten Rankings in forever, so let’s do a stock check on all 18 Big Ten Teams.

Not everyone’s goals are the same in Basketball. Theoretically everyone wants to make the Final Four and win their Conference Title, but for most teams that isn’t actually realistic. Some are better served aiming for a Sweet Sixteen or some might just want to make the tournament.

The good part about being this deep into the season is that as a fan you have enough data points to set a reasonable goal for your team and also enough time to potentially reach that goal.

So, here is an updated Big Ten Tier list as we refresh each team’s achievable goals.

Tier I: Big Ten Title Favorites

Purdue (11-2)

Michigan State (10-2)

Michigan (10-2)

My last article was about the Top 5 in the Big Ten and for the most part I really nailed that piece. Most of it proved true so go read that one, but the Top 5 has been whittled down to a Top 3.

In the preseason, Purdue was generally seen as the choice to win the Big Ten partially in a show of respect of what Painter had done the past few seasons while also being tabbed with the preseason POY in Braden Smith. Well, four or so months later Purdue is in 1st place and Braden Smith is running away with the Big Ten Player of the Year.

Now, the Boilers not too long ago had longer Big Ten Title odds than Oregon, Michigan, Michigan State, UCLA, and Illinois but now the Boilers are the favorite at +120 odds. The sportsbooks doubted Matt Painter & Smith and Purdue’s ripped off 10 of their last 11 games in Big Ten play.

Michigan State meanwhile finally proved beatable dropping both of their two west coast road games to USC & UCLA going from 9-0 to 9-2 and a half game behind Purdue before correcting it with a huge win over Oregon this weekend.

Finally, the Wolverines are just sitting there at 10-2 still with a MASSIVE home game against the Boilers today. In fact, Purdue still has to play at Michigan, at Michigan State and at Illinois. Overall, The Big Ten schedulers backloaded the schedule considerably.

As these three teams chase the Big Ten Title here is all of their remaining schedules:

Michigan (+210)Michigan State (+260)Purdue (+120)
Purdue
@ Ohio State
Michigan State
@ Nebraska
Rutgers
Illinois
Maryland
@ Michigan State		Indiana
@ Illinois
Purdue
@ Michigan
@ Maryland
Wisconsin
@ Iowa
Michigan		@ Michigan
Wisconsin
@ Michigan State
@ Indiana
UCLA
Rutgers
@ Illinois

All three teams play at least 6 more Quad 1 opportunities and all three teams play at least 5 games against the league’s Top 7 teams. Whoever wins the Title will earn it down the stretch.

Tier II: Big Ten Title Contenders

UCLA (9-4)

Wisconsin (9-4)

Maryland (8-5)

It would take some chaos for the top group to choke away their lead, but as you can see from each of their schedule’s there are plenty of ways Tier II can sneak in and earn a share of a Big Ten Title.

This group of Big Ten teams have a ton of upside come Tournament time too.

The Badgers are ranked 12th on KenPom (2nd overall in the Big Ten) with the country’s 9th ranked offense. John Tonje and John Blackwell are legit All-Big Ten performers guiding an unusually potent Wisconsin offense.

Maryland at times looks like the team with the best shot at the Final Four in the Big Ten and their 18th ranked KenPom profile being Top 20 in offense and defense certifies that.

While UCLA’s ranking is dragged down to only 25th on KenPom, the Bruins’ 7 game win streak suggests they may have turned a corner. Mick Cronin threw a public fit earlier this season and it looks like it worked as each of these players have stepped up somewhere along this win streak.

These three fanbases should have dreams of stealing a share of the Big Ten Title, maybe winning the conference tournament or even making the Sweet 16.

Tier III: Get Right & Prove People Wrong in March

Illinois (8-6)

Oregon (5-8)

My first draft I had a whole spiel typed out about how Illinois fans can’t be upset they aren’t a contender and how hard it would be for Purdue to choke away their lead and Illinois to win essentially 9 straight… yada yada and then they lost to Rutgers.

The sparknotes version of my Illini rant is that this team has fumbled Big Ten Title hopes with a stretch of losses partially to blame on injuries (Ivisic, Jakucionis) and partially to blame on cold shooting. Still, Illinois has the highest ceiling of any Big Ten team due to their combination of NBA Talent, 3-point packed shot diet, and overall Hot-or-Not streakiness.

Purdue is a great team who wins most of the games they are supposed to, but the Boilers have a ceiling and it isn’t high enough to beat the giants of CBB right now in Duke and Auburn (ignore what happened this past Saturday to both of them lol).

If Purdue’s super high floor is what can separate them in a 20-game marathon for the Big Ten Title, then the Illini’s talent is what separates them in a Win-or-Go-Home trophy in March.

If Illinois can get themselves right, they absolutely can hit 16 threes in a no.1 vs no.5 seed matchup and upset anybody in March. At this point Illinois needs to focus on getting healthy and mentally prepping for a run in March.

Oregon meanwhile isn’t in the same stratosphere as Illinois in potential, but they are in the same spot in plot arc. The Ducks proved themselves early as the NIL Festival Champs (or whatever that Vegas open-gym MTE calls itself) with wins over Texas A&M, San Diego State & Alabama. But now Dana Altman’s team is sub .500 in the Big Ten and have lost 5 straight including games to Minnesota and Nebraska.

People don’t think Oregon is any good now. KenPom has them ranked behind VCU, BYU and Nebraska at 40th. But watching that first half against Michigan State this past weekend, you can see how the Ducks can beat good even great teams.

Despite being 5-8 in Big Ten play, Oregon is still 7-6 in Quad 1 opportunities tied for the most wins of any Big Ten team. The Ducks desperately need to break their losing streak as a March Madness bid isn’t a guarantee, but it’s worth remembering that Altman has guided Oregon to three Sweet Sixteens as a no.7 seed or higher.

Tier IV: Bubble Boys

Ohio State (6-7)

Nebraska (6-7)

USC (5-7)

The eight teams in the first three Tiers in my opinion are tournament locks (assuming Oregon wins another basketball game) and this tier are the teams capable of rounding out the conference’s March Madness bids.

Ohio State is right there with Illinois on having bipolar results this season. The Bucks beat Kentucky and won at Mackey Arena, but also have looked like a High School team at Maryland and against Auburn. Still, they are the most solidly IN team of this trio.

Nebraska has been floating around the last four out and last four in for most of the season. In my opinion, Cornhusker fans should book their trip to Dayton now (while the tickets are cheaper) because they seem destined to be a First Four team. Big Red weathered a six-game losing streak to piece together a nice four game run at Oregon and Washington, and home wins over Illinois and Ohio State. Brice Williams is lobbying for 1st Team All Big Ten and powering Fred Hoiberg’s team towards their first back-to-back NCAA Tournament appearances since 1994.

USC had a resume-affirming win over Michigan State a week ago that legitimizes a team growing together. The offense can be pretty miserable to watch, but the Trojans now have 5 Big Ten wins and have moved from NIT bidders to just outside of the 68-team field. And no one wants to see Coach Musselman in March…

Tier V: NIT Run or Early Transfer Portal Start

Indiana (5-8)

Rutgers (5-8)

Minnesota (4-9)

This is a wild grouping.

Indiana is an unequivocal disappointment and now Mike Woodson will step down after the season. Minnesota is playing well out of nowhere and potentially might save their coach’s job. And don’t look now but Rutgers is teetering on being moved up to the Bubble boys after being dead in the water.

The Hoosiers are now 2-10 in Quad 1 games after a couple depressingly close losses to Purdue and Michigan. Indiana once again will find themselves with a new head coach next season for the fourth time in the past decade. The Hoosiers have seemingly endless resources and support, while also an inability to effectively use them.

Rutgers is defined by their top two players like no other team in the country. The Scarlet Knights no longer have a center with Emmanuel Ogbole out for the year, and they dropped plenty of games with Dylan Harper out. Rutgers isn’t a tournament team, but have a winnable path down the stretch. In other years where the committee unfairly left them out, maybe they put Rutgers in this year to get Ace Bailey and Harper on National TV.

After starting 0-6 in Big Ten play, Minnesota has turned their season around a little bit going 4-3 in their past 7. Ben Johnson’s plucky Gophers team from last year was gutted by the transfer portal and Cam Christie leaving early. This late season turnaround that is partially overcoming a significant talent gap is commendable and I think he’s earned more time to try and build something in Minneapolis.

Tier VI: We’ve taken ourselves out of the running

Iowa (4-8)

Northwestern (4-9)

In a different version of this season Iowa and Northwestern could have gone to the NCAA Tournament, but injuries have officially taken both of them out of the running.

It’s disappointing to see two of the Big Ten’s best in Iowa’s Owen Freeman and Northwestern’s Brooks Barnhizer have season ending injuries. It makes the day-to-day competition not as high and in Barnhizer’s case it is totally unfair that his decorated Wildcat career will end prematurely without him playing on a Senior Night.

There are bright spots for each of these teams (Josh Dix, the Sandforts, Nick Martinelli, etc.) and there’s ways to feel positive, shrug your shoulders and say, “Eh, not our year” and move on. Still, I also can see why Hawkeye fans might wonder this offseason if Fran has lost his fastball.

Tier VII: We’re already onto next season

Penn State (3-10)

Washington (3-9)

I don’t know what happened to the Penn State team that started 12-2 and 2-1 in Big Ten play (with a win over Purdue!) but that team is gone now.

The Nittany Lions have completely melted away as a March Madness team going 1-9 in their past 10 games. Ace Baldwin at one point looked like he could be Big Ten POY and now his career will seemingly go out in a whimper instead of a bang. Nobody can shoot, Konan Niederhauser and Baldwin have dealt with injuries, and their defense has opened up completely giving up 75+ points in all but two of the ten games in their losing streak.

This was always a Year 0 for Washington and Danny Sprinkle. The Huskies have played most of their hardest games already and I see 4.5 games left that Washington could win to potentially move themselves up a tier here but that’s all optics.

Washington has 3 Four-Star recruits committed for the 2025 class, Zoom Diallo and Tyler Harris are super young and talented players who are starting to breakout and Sprinkle will just be getting started. Great Osobor was a swing for relevancy this season, but the real promise is that Sprinkle can build this team to be a Big Ten contender for the long haul.

So, there’s all seven of my Big Ten Tiers as we enter the last four weeks of Big Ten play.

Purdue, Michigan and Michigan State as Big Ten Title Favorites. Maryland, Wisconsin and UCLA within striking distance of those teams. Oregon and Illinois had the regular season get away from them, but can make noise in March. Ohio State, Nebraska, and USC are jockeying for March Madness bids. Indiana, Rutgers and Minnesota are probably looking at the NIT. Finally, there’s the season is over tiers of Northwestern, Iowa, Penn State and Washington.

Thanks for reading! As a a reward for making it to the end here are my “still-too-early” All-Big Ten teams:

1st Team – Braden Smith, John Blackwell, Ace Bailey, Danny Wolf, Trey Kaufman-Renn

2nd Team – John Tonje, Brice Williams, Dylan Harper, Vlad Goldin, Kasparas Jakucionis

No questions at this time but I am sorry to Nick Martinelli and Derik Queen who should be on 2nd team. I don’t feel great putting both Rutgers guys on an All-Conference team with them tied for 11th-place as a team, but also I have to? Remember with how dumb the voting process is perhaps all 12 of those guys will somehow be on 1st Team.

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