It was a wild week in the Big Ten Tournament with big runs from Penn State and Ohio State both cut short by the Champion, Purdue. Selection Sunday has come and gone. Wisconsin, Michigan and Rutgers didn’t make the cut. In this post, we will look at the expectations and matchus for all the Big Ten teams that did make the cut. Plus thoughts on Purdue’s Big Ten Championship and Rutgers being snubbed.
Purdue wins the Big Ten Tournament
Coach Matt Painter and the Purdue Boilermakers won the Big Ten Title this week with wins over Rutgers, Ohio State and Penn State. They join 2015 Wisconsin and 2019 Michigan State as the only teams to win the regular season and tournament title in the past decade. Both of those teams advanced to the Final Four.
One year after falling short in the regular season to Wisconsin and Illinois, and falling short in the championship to Iowa, Purdue completes the double. For Purdue, there really is just one more Mountain to climb.
Purdue needs to make the Final Four.
The Boilers haven’t done so since 1980 and have so many teams capable of making it since then. Purdue is the 1 seed in their bracket, they have the National Player of the Year and Painter has never been better as a Coach. The time is now.
There isn’t much to break down for Purdue as they will play the winner of the 16 seed matchup in the First Four in Dayton. A game with 8th-seeded Memphis and Kendric Davis who just beat Houston looms in round 2. I will be in attendance for the first round game on Sunday.
The Bracket is overall favorable to Purdue as they have beaten 2 seed Marquette and 5 seed Duke already this year, Tennessee lost Zakai Zeigler for the year, and nobody is super afraid of Providence or Kentucky. However, the bracket was never more favorable than last year when a 15 seed and an 8 seed (UNC) they had already beaten was all that was in the way of the Boilers making the Final Four last year.
The Expectation is to make the Final Four. Purdue fans will be disappointed if the team doesn’t get there. The past week of results and players stepping up shows their capability. Time for it to payoff.
Maryland Terrapins
vs. 9) West Virginia (Thursday 12:15)
Expectations: Win one and give Alabama a fight
Maryland earned an 8 seed and will take on West Virginia (Kenpom overall 17/ 15th Adj O/ 52nd Adj D) as the first game of the first round on Thursday. The Mountaineers are by no means a terrifying team. They finished below .500 in the Big 12, they don’t do anything extremely well, and they don’t have any super star players or athletes.
Erik Stevenson is a guy you might worry about getting hot in March. He strikes me more of a guy who scores 18 points in a loss and walks into the locker room thinking, “I didn’t lose, you guys did.” Stevenson is also a swaggering, over-confident white guy with a bad haircut. So, he falls into the Matt Haarms/Hunter Dickinson mold where just watching him play your team once, you hate him instantly. For the Big Ten fans out there Joe Toussaint from Iowa is on West Virginia too so yeah.
West Virginia gets to the line really well but doesn’t rebound, pass, or score well from 2 or 3. It will be important for Maryland not to foul the Mountaineers and give them easy points.
Jahmir Young will be the best player in this game. That is a distinct advantage for Maryland. Julian Reese and Tre Mitchell are similar centers so there won’t be a major stylistic difference there for either team to compensate for.
The Gameplan for Maryland will be to slow it down, play good defense without fouling, and force them to drive instead of hitting threes. This is a game Maryland should win if West Virginia isn’t able to do some combination of speed up the game, get to the line or rain threes.
The Expectations for Maryland should be to win this game and at least put up a fight against Alabama. This will set the bar for Kevin Willard since it is his first tournament appearance with Maryland on what the narrative might be going forward.
Illinois Fightin’ Illini
vs. 8) Arkansas (Thursday 4:30)
Expectation: Make the Sweet 16
Illinois faces off against Arkansas (20/51/16) in a game of unrealized potential. Both teams entered the year with high expectations and highly rated recruits. For Arkansas, youth and injuries derailed them. For Illinois, it’s been… um well… it’s been a lot of things.
Ricky Council IV, Nick Smith and Anthony Black are the trio of ballhandlers of various sizes who can make things happen for the razorbacks. Could Nick Smith Jr. have a huge tourney and pump his draft stock back up? Illinois will try to stop that and they themselves have athletes and length to throw at Arkansas. The Illini will need good wing defense from Sencire Harris, RJ Melendez, Coleman Hawkins, and Matthew Mayer. It might not be a good matchup for Luke Goode or Jayden Epps (also will Epps be playing?). It could be a huge matchup for Dain Dainja. The Mitchell brothers on Arkansas will want nothing to do with Dainja and he could be the biggest mismatch for either team.
Both these teams are awful three point shooting teams, like in the 300s rank for the country awful. Yet, Illinois takes the 47th most threes in the nation. Conversely, Arkansas is 349th in 3 point attempts in the country. It should be a focus of Illinois to make Arkansas a jump shooting team.
The Gameplan for Illinois is to cut off driving lanes and make Arkansas shoot from distance, limit turnovers, stay in front of their guys (potentially by switching everything), keep them in halfcourt, and don’t foul. All of that is easier said than done. If you do that every game the Illini would have won more quad one games.
Fair or unfair, Brad Underwood needs to make the Sweet 16. This Illinois team isn’t as good as the past few years of Illinois Basketball but the fans are expecting more from this program. Beat Arkansas and you have a date with reigning national champions Kansas. Just beat them too and the fans will be happy Brad. Simple.
Iowa Hawkeyes
vs. 9) Auburn (Thursday 6:50)
Expectation: Win a game
Iowa will play Auburn (29/48/29) on Thursday in a game where nobody likes either team. I have been out on Auburn most of the year. I just don’t think they’re good and I have no real reason as to why.
Auburn is certifiably good at defense. The Tigers have held opponents to the 56th best 2% and 5th(!!!) best 3% in the country. Iowa will need to make threes to win this game. You can put that in writing.
This will be a game of a very good offense in Iowa vs. a pretty good Auburn defense. Auburn fouls a lot and gives up a ton of free throws so it will be important for Iowa to look for that and put Auburn’s players in foul trouble.
Critical matchups for Iowa will be Filip Rebraca guarding Johni Broome and Tony Perkins on (probably) Wendell Green Jr. It will be imperative for Perkins to try and speed up Auburn guards and force them into turnovers and other mistakes. The Hawkeyes also need to focus on rebounding as Auburn is a good offensive rebounding team and you can’t give up second chance points in March.
The Gameplan for Iowa will be to (unlike every other Big Ten team) speed up the game, try and get open 3s in transition, speed up the guards of Auburn and let them beat themselves. I like the matchup for Iowa as long as they don’t go 6/27 from 3 like last year.
The Expectaion for Fran McCaffery is simple: win one game. If they give Houston a run for its money great but I don’t think Iowa fans expect that. Please after last year just win one game Fran. That is all the people want. The Hawkeyes can make the Sweet 16 another year, but please not another first round exit where the offense falls apart.
Northwestern Wildcats
vs. 10) Boise State (Thursday 7:35)
Expectation: Win one game, keep it close with UCLA, and pray for more magic
I have not watched a second of Boise State (31/78/14) and I am not going to pretend like I have. The opponent for Northwestern does not matter. The Wildcats are only going to win one way and that is their way.
Northwestern is going to play great defense, isolate Boo Buie and Chase Audige, and have a backcut once or twice and hope that the 64 points they put up is more than their opponents total.
Boise State is a fine team who is pretty good defensively and rebounding. Great. That plays into Northwestern’s strengths. I don’t have much insight beyond that and to bet the under.
The Expectation for Northwestern is just to keep this dream season going. Give the national audience more of a reason to remember Boo Buie and this Northwestern team. The Big Ten will remember them but now it is time for the Nation to learn their name. The media will be insufferable for this team no matter what but just play teams close and hope a bunch of people watch your game. That’s a win for Northwestern.
Penn State Nittany Lions
vs. 7) Texas A&M (Thursday 9:55)
Expectation: Give Jalen Pickett, the other seniors, and PSU fans their March moment
Not going to lie, Texas A&M (25/30/37) is a bad matchup for Penn State.
The Aggies have capable, experienced guards in Boots Radford and Wade Taylor. They play great defense and still have a good to great offense. Texas A&M seems grossly miss-seeded as a 7 seed after finishing 2nd in the SEC regular season and tournament. So, congrats on the Big Ten Tourney run Penn State you get the Aggies.
A&M suffocates you on defense and gives up the 12th lowest amount of 2pt attempts in the country. The saving grace for Penn State is that the Aggies are 340th in the country in opponent 3pt attempts, and that is exactly what Penn State wants to do. This game could just come down to are Andrew Funk, Seth Lundy, and Myles Dread hot. When Pickett kicks the ball out is the guy going to make the three?
Gameplan for Penn State is to launch threes, don’t foul (Texas A&M takes the most FTs in the country), force A&M to make shots, and speed up the game if needed to free up some shots. It really will be a, “did we make our shots?” game for Penn State.
The Expectation for Penn State is just to win this one and try to give Penn State a defining March moment before Pickett, Lundy, Wynter, Funk, and possibly Micah Shrewsbury move on.
Michigan State Spartans
Vs. 10) USC Trojans (Friday 12:15)
Expectation: Make another run in March
USC (36/43/48) and Michigan State (32/41/40) is a true pickem game.
Drew Peterson and Boogie Ellis vs. Tyson Walker and AJ Hoggard. USC has shot blockers in Joshua Morgan and Vincent Iwuchuckwu that could bother Hoggard at the rim. Really this more comes down to if the Spartans execute they are a good to great team. If they don’t, they lose to Ohio State in their first game of the Big Ten tournament.
The Gameplan for Michigan State is to drive and create shots for Hauser, Hall, Walker, etc. USC should try and force the drives into shot blockers and stay home on shooters. In a pickem game between Andy Enfield and Tom Izzo… I am taking Izzo.
The Expectation for Michigan State is just to make another run. You have Izzo. You have guards who are coming into their own in Hoggard and Walker. The wing players shoot well enough and defend well enough in Akins, Hauser and Hall. You have a somewhat favorable draw with USC and Marquette. Why not us? If this year doesn’t happen… oh well, the Spartans have Jeremy Fears and Xavier Booker on their way and will certainly make March Madness for the 26th time in a row with Izzo.
Indiana Hoosiers
Vs. 13) Kent State (Friday 9:55)
Expectation: Sweet 16 minimum, Elite 8 or farther than Purdue
Indiana did not get an easy draw with Kent State (71/110/38).
Kent State has some dudes. Sincere Carry and Malique Jacobs sound like names I can hear the TV announcer screaming as a double digit seed pulls off an upset. The Flashes play good defense, gamble on steals (and get a lot of them), and foul a lot. Malique Jacobs harassing Jalen Hood-Schifino all game will be interesting.
That being said IU should take care of business. The Hoosiers have an All-American center that Kent State should have no answer for. Play thru TJD and drive and kick for other open shots and IU should be good. On defense, stay home on Jalen Sullinger and let everyone else jack threes.
IU fans will have high expectations. Indiana needs to win this game and then take care of business against Miami or Drake. Purdue is a one seed. I will repeat that. Arch Rival Purdue is a one seed and just won the Big Ten regular season and tournament. IU fans won’t think sweeping them is enough. They need to see the Hoosiers be nationally relevant too. Woodson has done great so far but if they fall short of the Sweet 16 or even get trounced by Kelvin Sampson and Houston in a revenge game… Local radio will have some segments.
Rutgers snubbed from the Madness
Perhaps no team had a tougher Selection Sunday than the Rutgers Scarlet Knights and their fans. Most people thought with a win over Michigan that Rutgers was going dancing. The committee didn’t agree.
Instead, Steve Pikiell will lead Rutgers as a 1 seed in the NIT. This sucks for Rutgers on so many levels. The Seniors on this team deserved a shot in March.
Quad 1 and 2 wins, Kenpom Rating, BPI, and all the other made up metrics showed that Rutgers should have been in the tournament. If you told me after Rutgers won in Mackey that they would miss March Madness, I wouldn’t have believed you.
I feel for 2x DPOY Caleb McConnell, transfer of the year in the Big Ten Cam Spencer, all the fans, and even flopping Paul Mulcahy.
The future is bright with Derek Simpson, Ace Bailey and Steve Pikiell but no one wants to hear about the future in a moment like this. Only thing Rutgers can do is to go and win the NIT and prove the committee wrong.
Anyways, I cannot wait to break down all 8 of the Big Ten teams as we go forward into March Madness. I have no idea who will win the Championship this year and that’s awesome. College Basketball is great. March Madness here we come.