Simple concept. Four 5-12 seeds I Love. Four top 16 seeds I hate. One from Each Bracket. Games start Thursday at noon. Pick wisely.
South
Love: 6) Creighton
I fell in love with Creighton in Maui. It was a holiday weekend. I had a few drinks. I looked at Ryan Nembhard and Ryan Kalkbrenner and I fell in love. They left Maui but I never did. The Bluejays were the team that got away.
In all seriousness, I love their starting 5 more than almost anyone else’s in the country. Nembhard is a fantastic lead guard, Kalkbrenner an amazing 5, and Baylor Scheierman is a great heat check. McDermott is a solid head coach and Creighton has started to play defense recently.
They have been up and down but I like them to make the Sweet 16 even over…
Hate: 3) Baylor
Not much to say here but Baylor will go cold in a game and lose because of it. That game could be round one against Santa Barbara or it could be in the National Title game.
The vision of this was the Kansas game where they dominate the first half, but then go cold and lose the second half by like 30+ points. So, if every half is a coin flip it is statistically improbable that the Bears make the final four by calling heads 8 straight times. Even making it 4 straight times isn’t likely.
I would pick them to be upset before the Sweet 16 because it just is more likely than other teams. I like Keyonte George, LJ Cryer, Adam Flagler, etc. I just don’t think this Baylor team has enough to overcome a poor shooting stretch in one of these games.
East
Love: 7) Michigan State
I really like most of the top seeds in this bracket so this is my weakest Love team. I am in on Michigan State and Tom Izzo. Sue me.
I watched all of the Iowa Michigan State game and saw the blueprint for Michigan State. Tyson Walker as the guy, AJ Hoggard driving and kicking to Malik Hall and Joey Hauser for three or their own drives, and Sissoko, Akins and Kohler doing enough in support. The Spartans lost that game by a miracle from Iowa but it stuck with me.
The Spartans have shown flashes all season of all their B+ talent adding up to be more than the sum of their parts. Throughout the second half of the loss to Ohio State in the Big Ten Tourney, Izzo was trying to coax something out of Hoggard. I believe in Izzo being able to squeeze out the best version of this team.
Hate: 2) Marquette
It is too easy to pick Tennessee as my East Bracket Hate team with Zakai Zeigler injured. This pick more than anything is a zag. If I was being honest with myself I would say I hate Purdue and love Memphis in this bracket, but everyone is doing that. Once people have picked that, they look around and they stumble into picking Marquette for their Final Four. I think Lee Corso might say, “Not so fast!”
Marquette is a fun team. They score a lot, force a lot of turnovers, and have spunky players like Tyler Kolek and Oso Ighodaro powering their team. Shaka Smart is a Coach of the Year candidate and a great story for finding himself in Milwaukee.
They also suck at defense besides forcing turnovers. Shaka Smart hasn’t made a Sweet 16 since making the Final Four in 2011 in 8 tournament appearances. There is an element of did the top of the Big East only look so good because the bottom sucked so bad.
People before this season looked at this roster and said yes they obviously don’t have enough. I get results should prove that they do have enough, I am just cautioning from blindly pushing them through over teams with more talented rosters who might have underachieved. Again I am zagging while everyone is zigging on the Golden Eagles.
Midwest
Love: 5) Miami
I am contradicting my Baylor and Marquette takes about all offense no defense teams, but dammit I like Miami.
Miami has an unbelievable offense with a stacked group of guards in Isaiah Wong, Nijel Pack and Jordan Miller. Norchad Omier if healthy is an X Factor forward that the Hurricanes usually don’t have. The U has one of the best head coaches in Jim Larranaga, and this team made the Elite 8 last year.
I don’t think Miami necessarily has Elite 8 in them if they play Houston… but I like them being able to outscore an IU team or Iowa/Auburn if they upset the Cougars. It seems like most people have dismissed the Canes and I am just saying don’t count out the ACC regular season champion.
Hate: 6) Iowa State
Ok I cheated with this pick, but I didn’t want to say I hated another 3 seed in Xavier, and I love Houston, Texas and IU… so yeah give me a layup in the Cyclones.
Iowa State has team drama with Caleb Grill being kicked off, the Cyclones on-court success has tumbled (losing 7 of the last 10), and if you want to fade the Big 12 (like I do) for potentially not being as deep as they make it out to be the Cyclones are just an easy 6-11 seed upset pick.
I believe in the future of Iowa State and TJ Otzelberger, but I think everyone just wants this season to end.
West
Love: 9) Arkansas
I love the potential of this Arkansas team. Similar to Creighton, I fell in love with them in Maui. They have so much NBA type talent and just never were healthy.
I like them to make a run here. I think they matchup extremely well against Kansas. Jordan Walsh guarding Jalen Wilson is fantastic. Anthony Black trying to beat out Gradey Dick in the draft in real time could happen. Nick Smith Jr. could ascend back up draft boards with a Carsen Edwards type of run. Oh and Musselman and Arkansas have gone to 3 straight Elite Eights.
Yes they can still lose to Illinois in Round 1. Anyone can lose to anyone guys. Keep that in mind with Razorbacks vs Kansas.
Hate: 3) Gonzaga
I think Gonzaga pulled a Gonzaga on everyone this year. Gonzaga were 50/50 against out of conference opponents and sometimes looked outmatched. The Zags then dominated and came on strong against the WAC down the stretch and now everyone loves them and their guards. This reminds me of what Gonzaga did 5 years ago.
Granted Gonzaga beat Alabama this year. Yes, the WCC is better than it used to be. Still, its the WCC. Gonzaga was worse than Michigan State, and won because the game was on a boat so jumpers didn’t go in. Edey dominated Timme. They got throttled by Texas. I am not saying Gonzaga sucks. I am saying maybe relax a bit and don’t put them in your Final Four.