The 2023 Final Four in Houston is set. UConn, Miami, San Diego State and Florida Atlantic? Yes! An unprecedented tournament has given us the weirdest grab bag of Final Four teams maybe ever. In this article, we break down matchups, game plans, advantages, title odds, etc. to get you ready for the biggest weekend in College Basketball.
A wild weekend of action lead us to have one of the most unorthodox Final Fours ever.
Houston and Alabama lost on Friday eliminating all the one seeds. Next, Texas and Kansas State lost eliminating all the 2 and 3 seeds.
Now, we have 4 seed UConn, 5 seeds San Diego State and Miami, and 9 seed Florida Atlantic. Although these teams may not have been expected to be here, all of them have proven they are great college basketball teams.
All four teams have spent time ranked during the regular season, UConn even was ranked as high as number 2 in the country, and everyone (but UConn) won their conference during the regular season.
Despite the seedings, no one here is a cinderella and anyone can win the whole thing.
Here are the odds to win it from FanDuel Sportsbook as of writing this on Tuesday:
- Uconn -125
- SDSU +390
- Miami +450
- Florida Atlantic +550
UConn is the obvious favorite. UConn is the highest seed who has been ranked higher than the other teams all year, they are the only program who has won a title before, and finally the Huskies have been dominant in their run so far.
Not so fast!!! Every one of these other teams have been picked against and doubted in every round before this one. So, I caution you from continuing to make the same mistake.
Before breaking down the matchups lets discuss what it means for each team to make it here.
San Diego State
San Diego State advances to the Final Four by avenging last year’s first round exit loss to Creighton.
Dayton is the team that everyone brings up as a team cheated out of a Title chance from the cancelled 2020 tournament, but San Diego State also had an amazing team that year. Covid-19 took away the tournament from SDSU as they were in a program year. The Aztecs were 30-2 and would’ve been a 1 or 2 seed. Aztec fans don’t have to ask ‘What if?’ as much.
Now, Brian Dutcher and Co. have made their first Final Four in program history and are honoring Steve Fisher’s legacy.
Florida Atlantic
In the first round, FAU needed a favorable call in order to advance past Memphis. Each round they’ve played a little better and beaten better and better opponents.
That shows you the thin margins of success in NCAA tourney.
The Owls could’ve lost to Memphis and been a forgotten first round exit team, but now they are 35 win Conference Champion who made the Final Four. Not many teams have done that.
People keep doubting and people can continue to be wrong.
Miami
Miami lost to eventual National Champion Kansas in the Elite Eight last year. It was their first Elite Eight in program history.
That wasn’t enough for them.
The Hurricanes return this season and beat the 4 seed, 2 seed, and 1 seed in their region to advance to the program’s first Final Four.
Nijel Pack is proving the impact of the Transfer portal and NIL.
Pack was paid a pretty penny to come down to Miami. His contract was well publicized and often critiqued. Isaiah Wong may or may not have held out to get his NIL to match Pack’s amount. Every penny has been proven worth it. We will see how Miami and Pack’s success effects NIL spending going forward.
Finally, Larrañaga joins elite company as a coach taking two different teams to the Final Four with George Mason and Miami. A real journalist would know if he is the only coach where it was both program’s first. Too bad I am just a blog boy.
UConn
At one point this season UConn probably should have been ranked number 1. At another point the Huskies also lost six straight Big East games. UConn is back to playing like number 1 again.
Last season, Dan Hurley and UConn lost in the first round to New Mexico State in the Teddy Allen game (we missed out on a revenge game against Timmy Allen and Texas).
Now, Hurley has made the first Final Four since the 2014 title under Kevin Ollie. UConn was lost for a bit after leaving the Big East. Now, the Huskies are emphatically back on the National Stage with a chance to win their 5th National Title.
San Diego State Aztecs vs. Florida Atlantic Owls Breakdown
Dusty May will likely follow the same formula the Owls had against Tennessee. Which is to drive and kick, fast ball movement and jacking threes from all those guards. FAU just has guards for days.
FAU will desperately want to speed it up and SDSU will want to limit the number of possessions. Watch out for FAU running the floor and trying to find threes and Vlad Goldin in transition off of turnovers and rebounds.
Speaking of Vlad, Goldin vs Nathan Mensah will be fascinating.
Mensah’s presence at the rim has been a huge factor for the Aztecs. Goldin had an amazing game against Kansas State. Can he repeat it? Can Goldin guard Mensah without fouling? Could Mensah erase everything at the rim for FAU? Will Goldin punish Mensah for helping off him?
Who on FAU guards Darrion Trammell? Trammell has evolved into the go to guy in the tourney for the Aztecs.
Can Matt Bradley get going? Bradley should be much bigger than whoever guards him from FAU. Bradley has taken a backseat recently, but he is supposed to be the Aztecs best player.
I like FAU to keep dancing. I can’t shake that there is something here with them. I love how different guys continue to step up for them. Johnell Davis is entering my guy territory for me.
At the same time, you could say the same thing about the Aztecs. They also have great depth and it is a new guy with a big time performance each game too.
Both teams have options and are playing up to their potential while playing together. That makes for a great game.
Miami Hurricanes vs. Connecticut Huskies Breakdown
UConn has blown everybody out so far. Miami has made double digit comebacks against Houston and Texas in the past two games. Don’t be surprised if the script continues and UConn jumps out early and Miami fights back.
The matchup that jumps off the page is Adama Sanogo and Donovan Clingan vs Norchad Omier. Sanogo & Clingan are big and physical but can get up and down the court. Sanogo punished double teams as a willing passer against Gonzaga. With how good Clingan has been off the bench, it’s not like Omier can just get Sanogo in foul trouble.
In fact the opposite is more likely as Omier almost (and maybe should’ve) fouled out against Texas. Omier is kind of the only big on Miami. Can he handle defending the versatile and dominant UConn bigs? What does this game look like if he is in foul trouble?
The counter argument for worrying about the defense on UConn’s big men is that Miami is aiming to outscore you not defend better than you. They didn’t try to shut down Trayce Jackson-Davis or Jarace Walker and won those games kind of easily.
Miami showed they can outscore you by launching 3s against Houston and showed in the Texas game they can also do it from isos and no 3s.
Speaking of Iso plays, out of Miami’s guards Wong, Pack, Jordan Miller, & Poplar who can exploit a mismatch in iso this game?
Does UConn have a defender they can target? Is it Hawkins?
The other big matchup will be who does Andre Jackson guard? Could he just erase Wong or Miller for Miami?
Jackson has been amazing the past few games as a connector and defender who makes the right plays and grabs every loose ball. Can Miami force him to make plays with his jump shot?
At some point, a game might come down to an open Andre Jackson jumper. If it does, I like the other team’s chances.
Does Miami think they have a better chance in a track meet or by slowing it down with isolation basketball? I think Miami will be the one who needs to select the pace. If they let UConn dictate the flow, UConn will win.
At this point in the tournament every team has shown you over four games why to believe in them. Now you have to remember why not to believe in them.
All indications point to UConn running away with it in the next two games, but UConn hasn’t had their bad game yet. Miami kind of has. I’m talking myself into both underdog picks which is good for betting which usually is not right, but in this tournament maybe it is.
But that’s why we play the games and why it’s so thrilling for us fans to watch them! My official pick is Miami and FAU in a Florida State Title for the National Championship. I’m sure I will be wrong. Can’t wait to break down the Championship weekend next week with you guys!