All the big media websites will be waiting to post their Way Too Early Power rankings the second after the National title ends. Here at the Floor Slap, we finished early… So here are the Premature Power Rankings for the 2023-24 College Basketball season. Make sure to check out the Premature Power Rankings for the Big Ten too coming Tuesday!
Nothing is better than the second your season ends, immediately coping by figuring out how good next year’s team will be. Trust me, I’m a Purdue fan.
So, this is a list ranking of all the top 16 teams in College Basketball for the next season. Why 16? I think that the top 16 teams usually are a bit better than the teams right after them.
I think it’s easier to see a top 16 or so develop above the rest. Teams 20-40 are usually so tight together that it really is just bias or recent performance separating them in people’s rankings. It is easier to try and pick that next tier up than the ones at the bottom of the top 25.
Why release them early? Besides the stellar title, I want to release mine before the major publications release theirs. By then opinions are anchored and groupthink takes over.
I want this list to be mine and my thoughts and not based off of what all the other talking heads say. I don’t need to read about how awesome this Kentucky class is to know where I want to put them.
Obviously, this will change as different players stay, go pro, or transfer. For now, this is my Super 16 and 8 teams who are on the Waiting List.
1. Tennessee Volunteers
Losing: Santiago Vescovi, Josiah Jordan-James, Julian Phillips, Olivier Nkamouah Uros Plavsic, Tyreke Key
Keeping: Zakai Zeigler, Tobe Awaka, Jahmai Mashack, Jonas Aidoo, BJ Edwards
Coming: JP Estrella (47th on Rivals ranking), Cameron Carr (65), Cade Phillips (140)
Tennessee has been one of the consistently great programs of the past few seasons (ignore the March record!). The Vols could cement themselves at one in my book if some of their stay or go decisions stay.
Julian Phillips is a borderline first rounder who might want to come back to guarantee it. Jordan-James missed a lot of games and might want to run his senior season back. I can’t imagine Pro teams are dying to get Vescovi and Plavsic. If even a combination of any of those four are back, Tennessee is my number one. If everybody leaves they probably fall lower.
Zeigler’s rehab will be critical for the Vols success, too. He is the exact type of guard you want leading your team. Aidoo, Mashack, Awaka, etc. will have another year under Rick Barnes to improve. If Julian Phillips does come back and makes a leap, the Vols could really be a problem. Four-stars JP Estrella and Cameron Carr are coming in as well to replace any lost production. Expect Barnes to add some experience from the portal as well.
2. Michigan State
Losing: Pierre Brooks, Joey Hauser, Tyson Walker?, Malik Hall?
Keeping: AJ Hoggard, Mady Sissoko, Jaden Akins, Tre Holloman, Jaxon Kohler
Coming: Jeremy Fears Jr. (24), Xavier Booker (8), Coen Carr (53), Gehrig Normand (104)
Michigan State made it the farthest in March Madness of any Big Ten team and they also could bring back the most in the conference while adding it’s best class.
Tyson Walker and Malik Hall have decisions to make on whether they’ll be super seniors. Hauser seems to be gone. Guys lower on the beach like Pierre Brooks might transfer, but that won’t hurt.
Jeremy Fears and Xavier Booker will be impact guys right away. Booker will almost certainly start at 4 for this team. Add in any leaps from Hoggard, Jaden Akins, Tre Holloman, Mady Sissoko, etc. and Final Four is a fair expectation for Sparty.
3. Marquette
Losing: Nothing!
Keeping: Everything and Everyone
Coming: Tre Norman (75), Al Amadou (135), Zaide Lowery (141)
Theoretically every single player in their rotation will be back. Tyler Kolek, Kam Jones, Prosper, and Ighodoro rolling it back with a chip on their shoulder after an early exit in March? Count me in. Plus add in 3 top 150 recruits coming in, and Marquette won’t even need to dip into the portal to be a final four contender.
Note that preseason rankings aren’t predicting who will win in March. Would I have Tennessee (Rick Barnes) and Marquette (Shaka Smart) this high for Title odds? No. But I do think they will win a bunch of games in the regular season to earn a high ranking.
4. Kansas
Losing: Gradey Dick, Dajuan Harris, Kevin McCullar, Jalen Wilson, MJ Rice, Bobby Pettiford Jr., Joesph Yesufu
Keeping: KJ Adams, Ernest Udeh, Zuby Ejiofor
Coming: Elmarko Jackson (21), Chris Johnson (31), Marcus Adams Jr. (57), Jamari McDowell (101), Unidentified Portal players
This Jayhawks team will expect big years from guys like Ernest Udeh or Zuby Ejiofor as they return to the traditional Kansas center. KJ Adams will have a chance to step into the spotlight. God, I love him.
Sure they lose Dick, McCullar, Harris, Wilson and more players like Pettiford, Yesufu, and MJ Rice are in the portal but it’s Bill Self and Kansas.
Four more 4-stars are coming in and I’m 100% sure Kansas will grab some studs in the portal. Bill Self is the safest bet to keep his team consistently in the top 5 of College Basketball.
5. UConn
Losing: Tristen Newton, Jordan Hawkins, Adama Sanogo?, Andre Jackson?
Keeping: Alex Karaban, Dononvan Clingan, Hassan Diarra
Coming: Stephon Castle (10), Solomon Ball (45), Jaylin Stewart (66), Jayden Ross (126), Youssouf Singare (139)
Huskies could lose Sanogo, Newton, Hawkins, and even Jackson. Guess what? The Huskies have a stud class coming in including Stephon Castle, who is the highest rated guard to ever come to UConn. Think about that.
Karaban and Clingan are awesome and should thrive as sophomores. UConn will also emerge as a top destination in the transfer portal. No. 5 might be too low if Sanogo and Jackson do come back.
Dan Hurley has UConn in a great place as a program. UConn will be back to being a power and with a win Monday night can cement their Blue Blood status.
6. Creighton
Losing: Trey Alexander?, Arthur Kalmua?
Keeping: Ryan Kalkbrenner, Ryan Nembhard, Baylor Sheierman
Coming: Isaac Traudt
Creighton once again will be right in the thick of things next season. The Bluejays might lose one of their 5 starters and could lose a couple bench players to the portal, but the core should stay the same.
Ryan Kalkbrenner, Ryan Nembhard, and Baylor Scheierman should all be back. It is pretty likely Arthur Kaluma and Trey Alexander will come back too even though they have outside chances of being drafted. Creighton is crazy talented, and added a key piece in UVA transfer and four-star recruit Isaac Traudt this week. Add in a year of development for Fredrick King and Mason Miller and Creighton could actually have a good bench next year too.
This team has unfinished business. Greg McDermott’s team fell just short of the Final Four in an up and down season. Expect them to come back motivated in the 2023-24 season.
7. Arizona
Losing: Kerr Kriisa, Courtney Ramey, Azuolas Tubelis?
Keeping: Oumar Ballo, Pelle Larson, Kylan Boswell, Henri Veesar
Coming: KJ Lewis (106)
At this point you cannot have Tommy Lloyd and Arizona outside of the Top 10. This past season, the Wildcats lost 4 guys to the NBA and still won 28 games and earned a 2 seed (ignore March!).
Yeah they lose a lot, but Arizona keeps a lot and will be a factor in the portal. Could they upgrade at guard over Kriisa? If so, this could be too low. Expect big things from Kylan Boswell, Oumar Ballo, and Pelle Larson next year. Azuolas Tubelis coming back could move them up even more.
8. Purdue
Losing: David Jenkins Jr., Zach Edey?
Keeping: Braden Smith, Fletcher Loyer, Caleb Furst, Mason Gillis, Brandon Newman, Trey Kaufman-Renn
Coming: Myles Colvin (100)
Similar to Arizona and Lloyd, Purdue and Painter deserve to be here (again ignore March!). Purdue has won 29 games the past two seasons, and have stayed in the top 10 all season for two straight years.
NPOY Zach Edey likely is back, and if he isn’t who’s to say Painter won’t turn Trey Kaufman-Renn or Caleb Furst into All-Big ten centers. It’s likely Purdue keeps the same roster that earned a 1 seed this season, and adds a stud in Myles Colvin to the mix for some variety.
At some point Purdue could be ranked number one and be upset by Rutgers for the third straight year!
9. Baylor
Losing: Keyonte George, Adam Flagler, LJ Cryer?, Flo Thamba
Keeping: Jalen Bridges, Langston Love, Josh Ojianwuna, Caleb Lohner
Coming:Ja’Kobe Walter (22), Miro Little(28)
Again we are going for consistently excellent programs and coaches. So, Scott Drew and Baylor fit the bill.
The Bears were a 3 seed this season and probably will do better next year. Out goes Keynote George and Adam Flagler; in comes Miro Little and Ja’Kobe Walter. Baylor is always going to have good guards. If Ojianwuna can make a leap in the middle that’s where Baylor could be national title good.
Baylor should be in every preseason top 10 until they prove they shouldn’t be.
10. Houston
Losing: Jarace Walker, Marcus Sasser, Tramon Mark?
Keeping: Jamal Shead, Terrence Arceneaux, J’Wan Roberts, Emanuel Sharp, Ja”Vier Francis
Coming: Joseph Tugler (61), Jacob McFarland (82), Kordelius Jefferson (138), Cedric Lath (NR)
Once again Houston deserves to stay in the Top 10. Jarace Walker is lottery bound and Sasser is declaring as well, but Kelvin Sampson will have this team humming along, attacking the boards and playing stellar defense.
The guards are in good hands with Tramon Mark, Terrence Arceneaux and Emanuel Sharp. The Cougars reload on bigs with four-stars Joseph Tugler and Jacob McFarland coming in. Houston will be great once again.
Get ready Big 12, the Cougars are coming!
11. Texas
Losing: Marcus Carr, Sir’Jabari Rice, Timmy Allen, Dylan Disu, Christian Bishop
Keeping: Tyrese Hunter, Dillon Mitchell, Arterio Morris
Coming: Ron Holland (6), AJ Johnson (18)
Rodney Terry is officially the guy and Longhorns fans should be thrilled.
There were a lot of seniors on this roster but moving forward with Tyrese Hunter, Dillon Mitchell (his nba stock should be low enough that he returns), Arterio Morris, and with two Five-stars in Ron Holland and AJ Johnson coming in, Texas will be in great shape. The Portal also should be a big hit for a team with some of the best NIL money in the country. The Longhorns could easily be way too low.
12. Miami
Losing: ???
Keeping: Nijel Pack, Norchad Omier, Isaiah Wong, Wooga Poplar
Coming: Michael Nwoko (143)
Miami was outmatched in the Final Four against UConn. That loss increases the likelihood of the band coming back for another ride. Regardless, Miami and Larrañaga have proven they belong in this list.
Miami’s post season success might lead to some weird NBA decisions, but I think Norchad Omier, Nijel Pack and Isaiah Wong will all be back. Miami’s boosters have shown the ability to bankroll awesome transfer reinforcements too. Nwoko will add some needed depth to the center position.
This might be too low for Miami, but this carries on the tradition of media praising Miami while simultaneously not ranking them higher ever.
13. Alabama
Losing: Brandon Miller, Jahvon Quinerly?, Noah Gurley, Noah Clowney?
Keeping: Mark Sears, Charles Bediako, Jaden Bradley, Rylen Griffen
Coming: Sam Walters (83), Kris Parker (92), Mouhamed Dioubate (108), RJ Johnson (178)
Alabama and Nate Oats’ play style will be keeping the Crimson Tide in the discussion year after year, even without Brandon Miller. Next year’s team won’t have an obvious lottery pick, but it will have a ton of depth.
Sears will be a leader. I expect a big jump from Jaden Bradley. If they keep both Rylen Griffen and Noah Clowney, Alabama will be ridiculously long again. Quinerly could still return too. Top transfers will want to go to Tuscaloosa. Add in the 13th ranked recruiting class with 3 four-star wings/forwards and Bama should be right back in the thick of it. Their shooting will decide whether this ranking is too high or too low.
14. Xavier
Losing: Colby Jones, Souley Boum?, Jack Nunge?, Adam Kunkel?, Zach Freemantle?
Keeping:Desmond Claude, Kam Craft, Cesare Edwards
Coming: Trey Green (64), Dailyn Swain (86), Reid Ducharme (111), Kachi Nzeh (198)
With Sean Miller still in Cincy, the Musketeers will be rolling again this year. I don’t think it matters too much what they bring back and even before seeing what kind of haul Miller gets in the portal, we know enough to say Xavier will be a top 15 team for most of the year.
Xavier will have 4 freshmen coming in, including 3 four-star recruits. If Jack Nunge, Souley Boum, or Freemantle return this team could be higher than 14.
15. Kentucky
Losing: Cason Wallace, Jacob Toppin, Sahvir Wheeler, Chris Livingston?, Antonio Reeves
Keeping: Oscar Tshiebwe?
Coming: Justin Edwards (2), DJ Wagner (3), Aaron Bradshaw (4), Robert Dilligham (9), Reed Sheppard (30)
Now we transition to the teams who get all the talent, but are too inconsistent to be above some of the better coaches with worse talent.
When ESPN posts their Way-Too-Early rankings, Kentucky and Duke will surely be in their top 5. I’m punishing them for not consistently getting the most out of their overload of 5-star talent. To say Calipari and Kentucky have been inconsistent in recent years is putting it nicely.
Kentucky might not return anything from last year, but their recruiting class and the portal will give them all the talent in the world. I love this Kentucky class, but I’m not putting them higher than this until the 18 year old kids or Calipari prove worthy of it.
16. Duke
Losing: Kyle Filipowski, Dereck Lively, Dariq Whitehead?, Jeremy Roach
Keeping: Tyrese Proctor, Mark Mitchell
Coming: Mackenzie Mgbako (7), Sean Stewart (13), Jared McCain (15), Caleb Foster (17), Will Power (20)
Same goes with Duke here. Scheyer started to figure stuff out near the end of the season, but still lost to Tennessee without Zeigler.
The Blue Devils lose a lot of talent and will certainly replace it with a lot of talent. This team might have too many forwards and no true center, but eh they’ll still be able to beat most teams.
Jared McCain could be seriously awesome. Tyrese Proctor is returning and figures to make a huge jump (since he was supposed to be a senior in High School this season but reclassified). If Whitehead returns and lives up to his recruiting ranking, that’s where Duke can shoot up this list.
Again go and prove you belong above the pedigree coaches and experienced teams first.
Super 16 – Waiting List
Here are the eight teams who didn’t make the cut. They are sitting on the Waiting List to be invited to the Super 16. I included quick hits on each of them.
17. UCLA (Easily the hardest cut. Amari Bailey should come back and Mick Cronin should still have an awesome team. MJ Rice destination?)
18. Arkansas (The Muss Buss will keep chugging)
19. Gonzaga (Could be ranked higher if we get year 7 of Drew Timme)
20. Florida Atlantic (Would be in the top 16 if I knew nobody was transferring but kind of have to expect some to leave for better NIL)
21. Memphis (Memphis could repeat the 2021-22 season if the 7th ranked class flops. I think other rankings will have the Tigers higher than me.)
22. St. Mary’s (At this point they belong in the preseason top 25)
23. Maryland (Terps are due to rise if Willard nails the portal)
24. Oregon (Could be way too low if their recruiting class is awesome)
Remember, if your favorite team didn’t make the list, it’s because I hate them and I am an idiot.
Stay tuned for the Premature Power Rankings for the Big Ten coming Tuesday!!!