Las Vegas has released their 2023 college football win totals – so of course we predicted the over/under for all 14 Big Ten teams’ total win projections. Here are our picks, analysis, and confidence level for each pick.
Indiana
Wins: +/- 3.5
Prediction: UNDER
Confidence Level: 3/5
After a 3-0 start in 2022, Indiana stumbled across the finish line while offering little optimism for the future. They finished the year 4-8, scoring less than 20 points in five of their final seven games and surrendering at least 30 points in nine of their final ten games.
With essentially every position group needing to make major strides in order for the Hoosiers to contend for bowl eligibility in 2023, I have a hard time seeing Tom Allen and this coaching staff making it to the end of the season.
Brendan Sorsby offered some optimism at the QB position with his play throughout the spring. He – or whoever wins the starting QB job – should have some good weapons to distribute the ball to with receiver Cam Camper returning and the addition of EJ Williams and DeQuece Carter from the transfer portal. They also have swiss army knife and freshman All-American Jaylin Lucas in the backfield.
But the main problem with this Indiana team is they are likely to be outmatched along both lines of scrimmage yet again – a problem that has plagued them the past couple years.
They brought in a ton of help on the defensive front via the transfer portal, but the Hoosiers are still undersized along the defensive line which is bad news in a conference that features some of the nation’s best offensive lines. On the offensive line, they have to worry about replacing their top two tackles.
Their schedule doesn’t do them much help, as they draw Wisconsin and Illinois out of the West in addition to their annual matchup against Purdue. Both the Illini and Badgers pride themselves on excelling along the line of scrimmage.
Outside of non-conference foes Akron and Indiana State, it’s tough to find two more wins on this schedule. Whether or not they can surpass three wins will likely come down to their final two games against Michigan State and Purdue. It might depend on how much the Spartans and Boilermakers have to play for by that time of year. But if I had to guess, the Hoosiers’ season will already be down the drain by that point.
There are far more question marks than reason for optimism on this team. It’s tough to go below such a low win total, but I am banking on a tough start to the season which will see Tom Allen and some of his staff let go early.
Illinois
Wins: +/- 4.5
Prediction: OVER
Confidence Level: 5/5
The public seems to think last year’s 8-5 season was a pleasant aberration for the Fighting Illini. But under Brett Bielema, I can assure you Illinois is here to stay as a perennial bowl team and Big Ten West contender.
Although it may be difficult for Illinois to top or even match last year’s eight-win total with the loss of their offensive heartbeat in RB Chase Brown, there is plenty of reason for optimism in 2023. I’d be willing to wager a lot that Illinois makes another bowl game this season.
First of all, the return of running backs Reggie Love III and Josh McCray should help cushion the loss of Brown. Illinois also returns their top four receivers in Isaiah Williams, Pat Bryant, Brian Hightower, and Casey Washington. The Illini passing attack has almost nowhere to go but up after averaging just 212 pass yards per game last year.
Although the defense may take a step back after fielding the best in the conference and one of the best in the entire nation in 2022, the Illinois defense should still be one of the Big Ten’s best this season. They have to replace a lot in the secondary, but should have one of the best defensive fronts in the country led by linemen Jer’Zhan Newton & Keith Randolph Jr and linebackers Calvin Hart Jr., Alec Bryant, Tarique Barnes, and Gabe Jacas. Under Brett Bielema and new DC Aaron Henry, you can count on Illinois reloading on defense.
Not to mention, Illinois gets a favorable schedule this season. Their non-conference games are Toledo, Kansas, and FAU – all of which the Illini should be favored in. They get a couple tough cross-over games in Penn State and Maryland, but they do get Indiana at home in November.
I think 5-7 is the floor for 2023 Illinois Fighting Illini, with a 6-6 or 7-5 season much more realistic. Take the over at 4.5 wins with absolute confidence before the line goes up any more.
Iowa
Wins: +/- 7.5
Prediction: OVER
Confidence Level: 4/5
Despite fielding one of the worst offenses of the 21st century, Iowa still finished the regular season 7-5 last year. Expectations should be higher in 2023 with what should be a vastly improved offense.
The upgrade they got from ex-Michigan QB Cade McNamara replacing Spencer Petras cannot be understated. It was just over a year ago when McNamara started every game for Michigan and led them to a Big Ten Title and CFP birth. He may not have an NFL arm, but McNamara avoids mistakes and completes a high percentage of his passes. He’ll be able to move the chains and make opposing defenses respect the pass game unlike last year.
Iowa also got a huge addition in Ohio State transfer receiver Kaleb Brown. Although he didn’t play as a true freshman last year, the top-100 prospect gained some valuable experience by competing in the nation’s best wide receiver room. His game-breaking speed and reliable hands will give this Iowa offense another dimension that they did not have last year.
The run game should also improve with the return of running back Kaleb Johnson who came on strong towards the end of the season, averaging better than five yards per carry in four of his final five regular season games.
Defensively, it’s going to be difficult to replicate the juggernaut that was the 2022 Hawkeye defense. Nonetheless, Iowa should still field one of the Big Ten’s best defenses in 2023. Led by cornerbacks Cooper DeJean & Jermari Harris and safeties Sebastian Castro & Quinn Schulte, the secondary should be the strength of this team.
Iowa’s defensive line should be among the deepest in the entire country. They do lose a lot at linebacker – Jack Campbell is simply irreplaceable. But Iowa has proven year in and year out that they reload on defense – not rebuild.
Iowa gets an unlucky draw by having to travel to Happy Valley. But their other two East cross-over games are Michigan State and Indiana – two games the Hawkeyes should be comfortably favored in.
Not to mention, Kirk Ferentz has won fewer than eight games just twice in the past ten seasons. With perhaps the best offense Iowa’s had in that stretch and another great defense, hitting eight wins seems like a shoe-in to me.
Maryland
Wins: +/- 6
Prediction: OVER
Confidence Level: 4/5
Perhaps overshadowed by Ohio State, Maryland has some of the best set of skill position players in the Big Ten. They lose some of their top receivers from last year in Dontay Demus, Rakim Jarrett, and Jacob Copeland, but Maryland has proven to reload at wide receiver as well as anyone in recent years.
They return their leading receiver in Jeshaun Jones as well as Tai Felton, Octavion Smith, and transfers Kaden Prather from WVU & Tyrese Chambers from FIU. They also have perhaps the best pass-catching TE in all of college football in Cory Dychess. And Roman Hemby returns at running back after accumulating over 1,200 total yards last season.
Returning QB Taulia Tagovailoa (perhaps the favorite to be 1st-team All Big Ten next season) will have plenty of weapons at his disposal to make the lives of opposing defenses miserable. And in the likely event that Tagovailoa misses a game or two due to injury, backup Billy Edwards has proven to be reliable when called upon. His mobility, big frame, and good decision making is perfect to plug into the lineup when needed.
Their offensive line poses some question marks, though. They lost three starters from their line to graduation and lost the other two returning starters to the transfer portal. Maryland also lost sophomore Coltin Deery who was expected to step up at center. But 2021 JUCO transfer Aric Harris should be able to step up at center while key transfers Corey Bullock, Gottlieb Ayedze, and Marcus Dumervil should slide into the other starting roles.
It’s hard to envision this being a dominant offensive line. But given how Maryland struggled along the front until the tail end of the season last year, I don’t see this unit taking a big step back either. It’s safe to say the Maryland offense will be dynamic and difficult to defend in 2023.
Defensively, Maryland has a lot to replace – particularly at cornerback and defensive tackle. But the linebacker and safety positions offer a good foundation for the Terps to build their defense around. They return perhaps their best defensive player in LB Jaishawn Barham and both starting safeties in Beau Brade and Dante Trader Jr.
The fact of the matter is Maryland does not need to field an elite defense in order to get a winning record. Last year, they finished 8th in the Big Ten in points allowed and 9th in yards allowed. With an offense that should be even more lethal than last year, I expect the Terps to see similar production out of their defense.
Maryland opens next year with Towson, Charlotte, Virginia, Michigan State, and Indiana – 4 of which are at home. It is very possible (maybe even likely) that Maryland is 5-0 heading into their road trip to Columbus. Their West cross-over games are also very manageable, drawing Northwestern, Nebraska, and Illinois.
Taulia Tagovailoa is maybe the most underrated QB in the entire country. With his return, I think it is a shoe-in that Maryland at least reaches a bowl game. They have the potential to knock off Penn State, Ohio State, or Michigan this year (reminder they played Ohio State and Michigan well into the 4th quarter last year), making seven or eight wins even likelier.
Feel confident in betting over six wins for the Terrapins, knowing you’re almost guaranteed to get your money back with a 6-6 finish.
Michigan
Wins: +/- 9.5
Prediction: OVER
Confidence Level: 5/5
This should be the most bet-on over out of any of the Big Ten teams. I had to do a double take when I saw this – the line really should be at 10 or 10.5
There is an argument to be had as to whether or not Michigan is ready to take the next step and win a College Football Playoff game – that will likely be determined by how JJ McCarthy and this passing attack develops given their thin receiver room. But even with that in mind, 10-2 seems to be the floor for Michigan this year.
They will once again field one of – if not the – best offensive line in the all of college football next year. They will pave the way for one of the country’s deadliest backfield duos in Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards. QB JJ McCarthy – although not quite a polished quarterback – can extend plays like few can in college football.
With such a dominant offensive line and so many different guys who can effectively run the ball, I truly think Michigan could win nine games this season without throwing more than 10 passes in a single game. That’s how good Michigan’s run game and defense has been the past two seasons and will be again in 2023.
Speaking of defense, the Wolverines do need to replace a couple key pieces – namely their top two pass rushers in linemen Mike Morris and Eyabi Anoma and their top cornerback in CJ Turner.
CBs Mike Mainstrill and Will Johnson should effectively step up to replace Turner. And although their safety room lacks the depth it had last year due to some spring transfers, it does help that Michigan returns starters Makari Paige and Rod Moore. Junior Colson and Michael Barrett also return to support what should be another great Michigan linebacker room.
My biggest concern, though, is the defensive line. In a conference with some great offensive lines and some insanely talented backfields, this is a big red flag. Jaylen Harrell figures to be the leader at DE and Coast Carolina transfer Josaiah Stewart should compete for a starting job after racking up 16 sacks over the past two seasons. But this defensive line does not appear to have the “alpha” pass rusher they’ve had in years past, nor the depth.
That defensive line and downfield pass attack might be the reason Michigan can’t three-peat the Big Ten and compete for a national championship. But the rest of the roster is certainly good enough to breeze to another double digit win regular season. It also helps that their non-conference opponents Eastern Carolina, UNLV, and Bowling Green. They also avoid Iowa and Wisconsin out of the Big Ten West.
We can debate all day whether or not Michigan is capable of defeating both Penn State and Ohio State for the third straight year. But one thing is for sure – the 2023 Michigan Wolverines are talented and experienced enough to go 10-2 at minimum. Bet over 9.5 wins confidently.
Michigan State
Wins: +/- 7.5
Prediction: UNDER
Confidence Level: 4/5
Just as their arch rival Michigan figured everything out and is a perennial Big Ten and CFP contender, it appears the wheels have fallen off of Mel Tucker’s Michigan State squad.
Although it was tough to evaluate a ton from Michigan State’s spring scrimmage because of how informal it was run, the offensive line that struggled mightily last year did not show a ton of signs of improvement. The Spartans need to get back to their roots and run the ball effectively if they hope to get back to a bowl game – let alone become Big Ten contenders again.
Jalen Berger returns after leading Sparty with 683 rush yards and 6 TDs. But Michigan State fans hope they see some production out of incoming transfers Jaren Mangham from USF and Nathan Carter from UConn. Based on the spring, it appears Berger and Mangham are the two leading running backs. This is Mangham’s third college team and he is averaging less than 340 rush yards per season. There’s a chance the change of scenery will spark something in Mangham, but I wouldn’t bet on it.
To make matters worse, the pass attack took a huge hit with the departure of QB Payton Thorne and WR Keon Coleman. Thorne has been the starter the past two seasons but found himself in a battle with Noah Kim to be the 2023 starter. The competition appeared to be neck-and-neck coming out of the spring, but Thorne elected to bow out.
Kim made the most impressive throws in Michigan State’s spring game and can very well operate this offense effectively. But the loss of their star receiver is going to be a tough one to overcome. Coleman burst onto the scene last year and led the Spartans with 58 receptions for 798 yards and 7 TDs. He appeared to be in line for an even bigger role this season with the loss of Jayden Reed to the NFL.
But the loss of Coleman makes an already-thin receiver room even thinner. Senior Tre Mosely now figures to be WR1. He’s a reliable receiver, accumulating almost 1,200 yards over the past four seasons. But he’s hardly a go-to receiver.
Michigan State’s offense should still be competent, but they need to be much more than competent in order to be a winning football team in 2023. The Spartans were 13th in the Big Ten in yards allowed and 9th in points allowed last year.
MSU should be able to get after the QB a little better this year with the likes of Jacoby Windom, Cal Haladay, and Kris Bogle. But the interior of their defensive line and their secondary offer massive question marks.
The secondary is the biggest concern, as Michigan State has been amongst the worst in the entire country in defending the pass. To make matters worse, they lose both starting safeties and their top cornerback. When a unit has been as bad as this for multiple years, sometimes an exodus of players is actually a good thing. But with Mel Tucker not making any changes to the defensive coaching staff, it’s hard to believe things are going to change.
The Spartans also face Washington, Maryland, and Iowa (on the road) in the first month of the season. That is not an easy start for a team that will be breaking in a new quarterback and several new receivers. It’s very possible Michigan State could already be below .500 entering October.
That’s not to say some improvement and a bowl appearance is out of the conversation for Michigan State. But with their win total set at 7.5, I am far more confident in Sparty finishing with somewhere between five and seven wins than I am in them going 8-4 and being a marginal top 25 team. There are simply too many question marks in too many places to inspire faith in the 2023 Spartans.
Minnesota
Wins: +/- 7
Prediction: UNDER
Confidence Level: 4/5
Everyone saw that graphic shortly after the college football season ended that listed the teams that have won 9+ games in each of the past three full seasons (excluding 2020). The usual suspects were on that list like Ohio State, Michigan, Alabama, Georgia, and Clemson. But there sat Minnesota – up there with some of the best college football programs of the modern era.
I swear that graphic is still in the back of everyone’s minds. That’s the only reason I can think of why Minnesota is the most bet-on Big Ten team to go over their win total. But is PJ Fleck’s 2023 Minnesota team really capable of continuing that streak? I have my doubts.
The loss of one of the best running backs in Minnesota history in Mohamed Ibrahim – but at least it was expected. Backup Trey Potts spurned the Gophers for the Nittany Lions this spring, leaving WMU transfer Sean Tyler left to shoulder the load. Tyler is coming off back-to-back 1,000+ yard seasons with the Broncos. But at 5’8″ 185lbs, Minnesota will need someone else to step up and lighten the burden for Tyler.
Minnesota has Bryce Willias, Zach Evans, and a couple freshmen left in the backfield. Bryce Williams is a 6th-year with 974 career rushing yards but averaging just 4.3 yards per carry. Zach Evans is a 3-star prospect from the 2022 class that didn’t see the field much last year. Hard to see tremendous production coming from behind Sean Tyler.
To make matters worse, Minnesota has to replace the entirety of the interior of the offensive line. To support the pulse of this offense, former Notre Dame transfer Quinn Carroll seems to be moving from tackle to guard. Nathan Boe, Karter Shaw, and Tyler Cooper are competing for the other two interior spots.
My problem with the offensive line is that they have to replace a four year starter in John Michael Schmitz. Center is a very unique position and not knowing who plays center and who plays guard coming out of the spring could cause continuity issues during the season.
Minnesota must replace QB Tanner Morgan – who had 47 career starts under his belt – with former 4-star Athan Kaliakmanis. In five starts and eight appearances last year, Kaliakmanis completed 54% of his passes for 946 yards, 3 TDs, 4 INTs, and added 140 yards & a touchdown on the ground. His mobility will give this offense another dimension but he still needs to be polished and developed as a passer. Luckily, he should have some good weapons to throw to.
Wide receivers Dylan Wright and Mike Brown-Stephens both hit the portal this spring, but 6th-year Chris Autman-Bell and former A&M transfer Dylan Wright return. The duo combined for 496 yards and 2 TDs last year. They also added Corey Crooms from WMU and Elijah Spence from Charlotte. Crooms piled up 1,582 yards and 11 TDs over the past two seasons, while Spencer burst onto the scene last year with 943 yards and 9 TDs.
Despite those weapons, I think Kaliakmanis will take a bit to develop and the offensive line won’t be good enough to carry this offense through some of the tough defenses on their schedule. I think Minnesota will take a drastic step back in yards and point – in which they ranked 6th and 5th, respectively, in the Big Ten last year.
Pivoting to the defense, Minnesota seems to have the safety position more than figured out with Tyler Nubin’s return and plenty of depth – thanks in part to Auburn transfer Craig McDonald. However, the situation is much different at cornerback. The reality of the situation is the Gophers will have to find help in the transfer portal or face a harsh reality in the fall.
Cody Lindenberg – who was second on the team with 71 tackles and has All-Big Ten potential – returns at linebacker. The Gophers also return a lot of experience at DT, but are otherwise very short on experience in the defensive front. This just does not have the makings of another top-five defense in the conference.
Their schedule does not do them any favors, as they have to travel to Chapel Hill to face UNC in the non-conference and draw both Ohio State & Michigan out of the East. On top of that, I don’t think Minnesota will be able to move the ball against defenses like Iowa, Wisconsin, and Illinois in their own division given their offensive line. All things considered, Gopher fans should consider a winning season a success. I foresee a 6-6 record in 2023 for Minnesota.
Nebraska
Wins: +/- 7.5
Prediction: UNDER
Confidence Level: 4/5
Seems like the public is drinking a bit of the Kool-Aid, no? I’m all for the Matt Rhule hire and believe in his ability to turn the Nebraska program around. But expecting eight wins in his first season seems a little lofty to me.
Last year’s porous offensive line has already shown signs of improvement according to Rhule. They are also bringing in reinforcements with Arizona State transfer Ben Scott filling in at center. Tackle Bryce Benhart has been noted as a good piece to build around and there appears to be plenty of depth at all positions. However, five guys need to step up and lead this unit as starters. It does not appear that is close to happening. I’m sure there will be improvement in 2023, but the offensive line is likely a multi-year fix.
Anthony Grant returns after rushing for 915 yards last year – 725 more than anyone else on the team. But redshirt sophomore Gabe Ervin has apparently been impressing Matt Rhule. In a regime change, you can’t count on everyone to keep their starting job. There are a lot of guys competing for carries at running back, so it’s nearly impossible to tell how this backfield will shake out.
The Huskers lose stud Trey Palmer at receiver, but return their 2nd-leading receiver in Marcus Washington and bring in Virginia transfer Billy Kemp. Kemp is a reliable receiver best-suited in the slot, as he’s accumulated 192 catches and 1,774 yards in his five-year career. Although he did see limited action last season. But outside of those two, the Huskers are going to have to mainly rely on inexperienced players for production at wide receiver and tight end.
The Nebraska QB competition seems to have figured itself out with the departures of Casey Thompson, Logan Smothers, and Richard Torres. Former Georgia Tech transfer Jeff Simms seems slated to be the new starter. Simms started 28 games over the past three seasons and displayed a lot of great physical tools, throwing for nearly 4,500 yards and rushing almost 1,200. His size and athleticism should fit Rhule’s & Satterfield’s offense very nicely. But with just a 57% career completion percentage and a 30:23 TD:INT, Simms still needs polishing as a QB.
All in all, I can expect the Nebraska to take some steps forward from last year when they finished 11th in the Big Ten in points and 10th in yards. But it’s the defense that is in desperate need of an overhaul.
Similar to the offensive line, the defensive line seems to have plenty of depth but not any proven, dynamic, playmakers. Rhule’s plan is to two or three “hockey lines” to sub out the defensive front and keep them fresh. Keeping the line fresh should certainly help productivity in 2023 and it’s great to hear Rhule and new DC Tony White have faith in so many guys seeing the field. But with the transfer of assumed starter Stephone Wynn, I’m not sure Nebraska as any lineman that can challenge the best OL’s in the Big Ten. Revamping the front of White’s 3-3-5 defense is definitely going to be a multi-year process.
On the bright side, Nebraska returns virtually everyone in their secondary. However, it is a secondary that was 12th in pass yards allowed, 12th in opponent completion percentage, and 10th in interceptions. It’s safe to assume the secondary should take a step forward, but my concern is mainly with running a 3-3-5 in the Big Ten.
A successful 3-3-5 requires a big, dominant offensive line, versatile linebackers, and a secondary that knows their assignments perfectly & can match up with receivers, backs, and tight ends. It’ll likely take some time for the Huskers to get used to this new defense and truly excel in it. Until they figure that out, they could be left susceptible to getting punched in the mouth from big offensive lines and taken advantage of in the play action game. Their questionable defensive line does not do them any favors, either.
The presence of Tony White and Matt Rhule should certainly help with some of the flaws in fundamentals that were on display in 2022 (if you don’t know what I’m talking about, just go watch last year’s Georgia Southern game). But making this an average to above-average defense is going to take more than a season.
It’s safe to assume both the offense and defense should take a step forward from last year. But Nebraska went 4-8 last year while being thoroughly dominated by many of their opponents. There is a lot to fix up at pretty much every position group.
Nebraska opens up the season with back-to-back road games against Minnesota and Colorado. They also draw Michigan, Maryland, & Michigan State from the East and finish the season against Wisconsin and Iowa.
I believe Matt Rhule is the right person for the job and will get the program headed in the right direction with a bowl appearance this season. But for a team that has tons of areas of improvement and a lot of player turnover, eight wins seems out of reach. I’d be stumped with a 6.5 line , but the line of 7.5 makes this an easy under pick.
Northwestern
Wins: +/- 3.5
Prediction: OVER
Confidence Level: 2/5
After accumulating a record of 4-20 over the past two seasons (the worst two records since Pat Fitzgerald took over) being the lowest-scoring power five team last year, the state of Northwestern football is as uneasy as it’s been in the past 20 years.
Let’s start out positive. The Wildcats picked up a huge commitment in Cincinnati transfer QB Ben Bryant. A career 65% passer with a 37:17 TD:INT, Bryant is a far cry from anything Northwestern had at the position last year. Although they lose dynamic running back Evan Hull, Cam Porter returns to take his place. The battering-ram back had 336 total yards last year and has the confidence of his coaches heading into 2023.
Unfortunately, that’s about as much as we know about this offense. Northwestern once again didn’t see a lot of action in the transfer portal, so their top two receivers appear to be Bryce Kirtz and Ray Niro III – they combined for 278 yards and 2 TDs last year. Outside of them, I am really not sure who they can rely on in the pass game. The upgrade of Ben Bryant at QB is nice, but the weapons he has to throw to is genuinely concerning.
Not to mention the offensive line – which was among the worst in the power five last year – loses LT Peter Skoronski to the NFL. Northwestern has seen a lot of success over the past decade when they get consistent QB play – something that was completely absent last year. For that reason, I see this offense making some improvements. But outside of that, there are not many reasons to believe this can become even a league-average offense.
Defensively, Northwestern might have another problem on their hands. The Wildcats have traditionally been a developmental program like Wisconsin and Iowa. They depended – usually successfully – on players sticking around for four or five years and improving each off-season.
The problem with the past two seasons is that the development has not been evident. Last year, Northwestern finished 12th in the Big Ten in points allowed, 11th in yards allowed, and 13th in turnovers forced.
They return a couple nice pieces in the secondary in cornerback Rod Heard II and safety Coco Azema. But outside of that, the defense is left with question marks. Without any key additions or replenishment of talent, I don’t see a reason why Northwestern won’t finish in the bottom five of the Big Ten in most defensive categories.
Despite all the negative things I have to say about the 2023 Northwestern Wildcats, I am still picking the over. Mainly because their schedule is relatively favorable.
They open the season at Rutgers and play UTEP, Duke, and Howard in the non-conference. They unfortunately also draw Penn St and Maryland from the East, but they get Maryland at home. They also have a key winnable game at home in November when they play Purdue. The Big Ten West certainly isn’t a gauntlet, making a 6-6 season somewhat plausible for Northwestern.
Although I am not overtly confident in this pick, it’s almost a case of “nowhere to go but up.” And as I mentioned before, Northwestern has been very solid in recent years when they get consistent QB play. Ben Bryant should be able to pick up a couple wins for the Wildcats.
It may not be pretty, but I’m betting on Northwestern to win a minimum of four games this year. However, it might be the pick I have the least confidence in.
Ohio State
Wins: +/- 11
Prediction: PUSH
Confidence Level: 2/5
Ohio State is one of the tougher teams to get a read on in the Big Ten. With question marks at quarterback and offensive line, it’s hard to envision the Buckeyes having the same high-octane offense that they’ve fielded every season under Ryan Day. But with NFL-esque skill position players and what should be a top-10 defense nationally, does the rest even matter?
Public opinion seems to be that Kyle McCord will win the starting QB job. But Devin Brown seems to have the higher ceiling and McCord still hasn’t been named the starter despite Brown being out until the summer with thumb surgery. I wouldn’t be surprised if the redshirt freshman Brown beats out McCord for the job. Either way, you can expect a step back from the QB play Ohio State has had over the past five seasons. But with Day still at the helm, they should easily have a top-five QB in the conference.
The running back room is probably the deepest in the entire country. TreVeyon Henderson hopes to regain his freshman-year form after battling through injuries throughout 2022. Miyan Williams – who has over 1,300 yards at 6.7 ypc over the past two seasons – also returns. The room also has former 4-star Dallan Hayden (who carried the offense with 146 yards and 3 TDs against Maryland), former ASU transfer Chip Trayanum (who had a team-high 14 carries against Michigan), and former top-100 recruit Evan Pryor (who was supposed to be RB3 last year before a knee injury cost him his season). No other team in college football has five running backs they can reliably hand the ball off to.
The Buckeyes’ elite receiving options are well-documented with the return of Marvin Harrison Jr, Emeka Egbuka, Julian Flemming, & Xavier Johnson and the arrival of elite freshman Carnell Tate. Cade Stover also spurned the NFL to return as one of the Big Ten’s best tight ends. Whoever wins the starting QB job will have an embarrassment of riches at his disposal.
However, the Buckeye offensive line figures to take a step back next season with the loss of their two tackles and center. Matthew Jones and Donovan Jackson are two of the best guards in the conference and offer good structure on the interior of the line. Josh Fryar – Ohio State’s 6th offensive lineman last year – has good experience under his belt and figures to fill in the LT position. And the Buckeyes picked up a big commitment in SDSU transfer Josh Simmons who will compete for the RT spot.
Ohio State has recruited the offensive line pretty well in recent years and has a good mix of seniors and highly-rated underclassmen to compete for C, RT, and backup roles. It’s hard to envision this offensive line replicating last year’s success and it will likely take a little bit for the unit to gain continuity. But Ohio State should once again have one of the better lines in the Big Ten.
Surprisingly, there are far fewer questions on the defensive side of the ball. The Buckeyes will have one of the best defensive fronts in all of college football with the only key loss being DE Zach Harrison. But with Jack Sawyer and a healthy JT Tuimoloau, OSU shouldn’t have much trouble replacing his production. Tommy Eichenberg and Steele Chambers also return to lead one of the best linebacker units in the country.
The question on every Buckeye fan’s mind is how this secondary will improve in year two under Jim Knowles. It had appeared that they made major strides last season until laying major eggs against Michigan and Georgia. Although they lose CB Cam Brown to the NFL, the secondary looked like they made major improvements in the spring.
Denzel Burke and Ole Miss transfer Davison Igbinosun are the favorites to start at corner after impressive spring showings. The Buckeye safety room is about as deep as their running back room with the likes of Lathan Ransom, Josh Proctor, Cam Martinez, Syracuse transfer Ja’Had Carter, and 2022 top-50 recruit Sonny Styles.
Ryan Day has proven himself capable of developing elite quarterbacks and deserves the benefit of the doubt as far as the offense goes. Pairing another great offense with what should be an elite defense means Ohio State is going to find itself in the thick of the Big Ten and CFP race in 2023.
But I don’t see them running the table in the regular season. With road games against Notre Dame, Wisconsin, and Michigan and home tests against Penn State and Maryland, I don’t see a new QB being able to win all those tough games. But I also think this team is too talented and has too big of a chip on its shoulder to finish 10-2. Thus, I am picking OSU to push their 11-win mark.
If I had to pick over or under 11 wins, I’d lean under. But I’m not confident enough to pull the trigger. I’d monitor the line and go under if it goes up to 11.5, and go over if it drops to 10.5. I’d be extremely confident with either of those picks.
Penn State
Wins: +/- 8.5
Prediction: OVER
Confidence Level: 5/5
This one gives me a sense of “what does Vegas know.” Penn State finished 11-2 last year and was a consensus top-10 team. I think it’s safe to assume they will only improve in 2023.
Starting on the defensive side of the ball, Penn State should have one of the best defenses in the country (if you haven’t picked up on it yet, there are once again a lot of really great defenses in the Big Ten this year). Although they lose a couple of elite pieces from the secondary in corner Joey Porter Jr and safety Ji’Ayir Brown, they also return a few elite players in corners Kalen King and Johnny Dixon.
The Nittany Lions also boast a linebacker room that competes with Ohio State for best in the conference. They return all three starters in Abdul Carter, Curtis Jacobs, and Kobe King. But if there’s a question on this defense, it’s the defensive line.
They have an All-Big Ten sized hole at DT with the loss of PJ Mustipher. Although Penn State has decent depth at that position, it is yet to be determined if anyone can step up to fill his shoes. In fact, James Franklin specifically called out the need for the interior line to improve after the spring game.
But Penn State does return Adisa Isaac and Chop Robinson on the edge. The duo combined for 21 TFLs and 9.5 sacks last year. They also have 2020 4-star Dani Dennis-Sutton (who was nearly un-blockable in the spring game) and an edge-heavy 2023 recruiting class. Even though questions remain on the interior defensive line, it’s safe to assume this Penn State defense will be a problem for opposing offenses.
Penn State’s offense boasts another elite running back room with Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen. The freshman phenoms combined for 1,928 yards and 22 TDs last season. They also picked up Minnesota transfer Trey Potts to serve as their RB3. Even if the injury bug hits this room, the Nittany Lions should have no problem running the ball. The offensive line should also continue to improve after making major strides in 2022. Their only loss is center Juice Scruggs.
Although PSU loses three of its top targets in TE Brenton Strange and receivers Parker Washington & Mitchell Tinsley, there won’t be a lack of talent on the outside. Home-run threat KeAndre Lambert-Smith returns after putting up 124 yards and a TD in the Rose Bow. They also bring in Malik McClain from FSU and Dante Sephas from Kent St. McClain is a big-sized target, while Sephas is a speedy deep threat who accumulated 1,984 yards, 12TDs over last two seasons. Theo Johnson and Tyler Warren – who combined for 452 yards and 7 TDs last year – will also be able to fill in for Strange at tight end.
The offenses shows signs of improving even more this season, but it will all depend on how QB Drew Allar develops. A top-five QB prospect in last year’s class, Allar is getting plenty of hype from Penn State fans. But I think expectations need to be tempered for the second-year player. Allar doesn’t offer the mobility that Sean Clifford had and he will likely need time to settle into the offense. But the rest of the roster is so damn talented, Drew Allar just needs to worry about avoiding mistakes in order to start 6-0 heading into their road trip to Columbus.
However, whether or not Penn State is ready to knock off Ohio State and/or Michigan will depend on how much Allar develops by mid-October. But this is all about whether or not Penn State can reach nine wins. Frankly, I think 9-3 is the floor for this Penn State team.
They do draw Illinois and Iowa from the West. To make it tougher, they have to play each of them in September. It’ll certainly be a test for new QB Drew Allar, but Penn State can afford to drop one of those games and still hit the over on their win total.
There is a debate to be had as to whether or not Penn State is a true CFP contender. But I think an 8-4 season is out of the question for this supremely talented team. If they do fall below nine wins, James Franklin might find his seat getting a little warm. But don’t worry – take the over with absolute confidence.
Purdue
Wins: +/- 7
Prediction: UNDER
Confidence Level: 2/5
Let me start by saying I love the Ryan Walters hire as head coach and firmly believe he will keep Purdue relevant and have them in Big Ten contention soon. But as far as 2023 goes, Boilermaker fans should temper their expectations.
Starting on the offensive side of the ball, Purdue loses starting QB Aidan O’Connell. The likely replacement will be Texas transfer Hudson Card. The 2020 4-star prospect was impressive when given the chance last year, completing 69% of his passes for 928 yards with 6 TDs and an INT. However, he is not incredibly mobile and has a pretty small frame. That’s not great news, as he will be behind an offensive line that was statistically one of the worst in the Big Ten last season. They do return a lot of experience and get help with the addition of former Bowling Green starter Jalen Grant. But it’s a lot to expect Purdue’s line to have the kind of improvement they need in order to keep Card upright.
It also does not help that Purdue loses it’s top two targets in WR Charlie Jones and TE Payne Durham. Broc Thompson – who was expected to be one of their top targets this year after missing almost all of 2022 with injury – also announced his retirement from football earlier this month. With TJ Sheffield the only experienced receiver left, Purdue all of a sudden has one of the thinnest receiver rooms in the conference.
The Boilermakers do return former walk-on running back Devin Mockobee who ran for 968 yards and 9 TDs last season. But there is not much production at all behind Mockobee. If he goes down at all this season, Purdue would be forced to become painfully one-dimensional.
Defensively, Ryan Walters brought a lot of his staff from Illinois over and will be implementing an entirely new defense. Like I mentioned with Nebraska’s defensive overhaul, this will likely take more than one season in order to see the results fans hope for.
Although Purdue should have a solid secondary (which is also Ryan Walter’s specialty) with the return of Sanoussi Kane and Cam Allen in back end, you really need a strong defensive front in the Big Ten West. There are not a whole lot of teams in that division that will beat you through the air. Unfortunately, Purdue does not look equipped to defend some of the run games they will be forced to face this season.
Senior Kydran Jenkins is the only proven pass-rusher returning with nine sacks over the past two seasons. And OC Brothers is their top returning linebacker after getting 30 tackles, 2.5 TFLs, and an INT last season. For the most part, there will be a lot of new faces in 2023.
Purdue’s defense will likely go through some growing pains next season while their offense should take a step back from last year’s success. That combined with a brutal schedule makes it hard to believe this team will finish over .500.
After opening up with Fresno State, Purdue has the following games: at Virginia Tech, vs Syracuse (to whom they lost last season), vs Wisconsin, vs Illinois, at Iowa, vs Ohio State. Then they finally get their bye week.
I don’t think the Boilermakers make it through their non-conference schedule unscathed. I also do not think they match up particularly well against Wisconsin, Illinois, or Iowa. Furthermore, I don’t see a way they pull off a 2018-esque upset of Ohio State. I really have a hard time seeing Purdue heading into their bye week with a record better than 3-4.
But the reason I am not 100% confident in my under pick is because their schedule after their bye is actually very reasonable with games against Nebraska, Minnesota, Northwestern, and Indiana. They do face Michigan on the road, but if they win the other four games they are likely looking at a 7-5 finish.
But there are just too many changes and too many things to fix on this team for me to be confident in them finishing that strong. As I mentioned before, I am sold on Ryan Walters as Purdue’s head coach and believe he will have a successful career there. But as far as his first season goes, I am more confident in Purdue finishing 6-6 than I am in them finishing with a winning record.
Rutgers
Wins: +/- 4
Prediction: OVER
Confidence Level: 3/5
Ah, Rutgers. The ol’ punching bag of the Big Ten. As much as Big Ten fan bases enjoy piling on Rutgers, I actually see some reason for optimism this season.
To start, Rutgers returns eight starters on offense – albeit an offense that was in the bottom two of the Big Ten in scoring, total yards, and turnovers. But running backs Kyle Monangai and Samuel Brown – who combined for 814 yards in 2022 – both return and should make a solid duo for a rushing offense that was actually league-average. Although the offensive line struggled last year, a lot of that can be blamed on facing eight-man fronts due to the lack of an effective pass game. The unit returns three starters and brings in five freshmen in the 2023 class.
Speaking of the passing game, how the aerial attack develops will dictate how far Rutgers can go this season. The Scarlet Knights rotated three quarterbacks last season and return all three in Gavin Wimsatt, Evan Simon, and Noah Vedral. Wimsatt is a former 4-star dual threat QB and the fan favorite. However, he needs to make major strides in his development after completing less than half of his passes last year and throwing more interceptions than touchdowns. It’s very likely we see all three quarterbacks get significant play time again in 2023.
I’m of the opinion that this passing game has nowhere to go but up, especially considering they return just about all of their receivers with the exception of Aron Cruickshank. On top of that, they bring in four freshmen and transfer Naseim Brantley from Western Illinois. Brantley had over 1,000 career yards at Sacred Heart before moving to WIU last year and racking up 903 yards and 9 TDs. At the very least, the Rutgers quarterbacks will have more weapons at their disposal.
Although the Rutgers offense will be far from an elite unit next season, I do see major signs of improvement. That’s a great sign for the Scarlet Knights, considering they actually have a solid defense.
The numbers paint Rutgers to be a worse defense than they actually were – they were 13th in the Big Ten in points allowed but 8th in yards allowed. That’s mainly because they were forced to be on the field for 40 minutes a game due to their inept offense.
But the good news is that Rutgers nearly everyone returns along their defensive front, with their only loss being DT Ifeanyi Maijeh. They do lose two starters in the secondary in addition to NB Christian Izien, but return one of the Big Ten’s most underrated corners in Max Melton.
Listen, Rutgers is still Rutgers. They won’t be competing for a Big Ten title any time soon – maybe not in any of our lifetimes. But I think Greg Schiano has his second rebuild of Rutgers on the right path. I expect both the offense and defense to improve from last year. Remember that Rutgers finished 4-8 last season which would push this year’s projected win total.
It also helps that Rutgers’ schedule isn’t too bad. They open the season at home against Northwestern and have Temple, Virginia Tech, and Wagner in the non-conference. Although they also draw Iowa and Wisconsin out of the West, it’s not out of the question that Rutgers could have four wins heading into October.
I like this pick because I am confident Rutgers will win at least four games and get me my money back. Whether or not they can find that fifth win is up in the air, but I am cautiously optimistic that they can given their team should all-in-all improve from last season.
Wisconsin
Wins: +/- 9
Prediction: PUSH
Confidence Level: 3/5
Wisconsin fans have a lot of optimism with the arrival of Luke Fickell, but there are certainly a lot of things this team needs to fix in order to contend in 2023.
Their average offensive line play led to the departure of offensive line coach Bob Bostad mid-season. With two interior linemen gone to the NFL and a projected starter transferring, the outlook looked even dimmer for a second. But Fickell bringing in Joe Huber and Jake Renfro from Cincinnati to replace their losses on the inside, Badger fans have reason for optimism. Renfro was an All-AAC center for the Bearcats on their way to the CFP before missing last year due to injury. Huber started every game at RT for Cincy last season, but could be used at multiple positions.
Paired with reliable tackler Jack Nelson and the versatile Tanor Bortolini, Wisconsin has a solid foundation to build their line around. Depth may be a concern for this group depending how many of the less-experienced linemen step up, but the Badgers should get back to it’s bread and butter and have a solid offensive line in 2023.
The improved line play means running back Barelon Allen could be in for a special season. Allen – who’s compiled over 2,500 rush yards and 23 TDs over the past two seasons – has proven to handle a heavy workload and hold up over the course of the season. He might be the best in a conference loaded with elite running backs.
On the other hand, the pass game could be more of an issue. The arrival of OC Phil Longo offers some excitement, but that won’t matter if the QB position isn’t figured out. Former Oklahoma and SMU quarterback Tanner Mordecai has been the hands-down favorite to win the starting job. But he didn’t separate himself in the spring and capped it off with a four-interception spring game. Mordecai was thoroughly outplayed by Braedyn Locke in that game.
Based off what I’ve seen, Locke seems like the Badger’s best option at QB this season. But the staff might feel pressured to start Mordecai because he is a 6th-year transfer and Locke is a redshirt freshman. Either way, it doesn’t seem like Wisconsin can rely on vastly improved quarterback play just yet. With a deep tight-end room, the return of the Badgers’ top three receivers, and one of the conference’s strongest run games, neither QB has any excuses.
Defensively, Wisconsin desperately needs to improve it’s pass defense after finishing last year 7th in the Big Ten in pass yards allowed and 10th in opponent completion percentage. Thanks to a deep safety room led by Kamo’i Latu, Hunter Wholen, and BC transfer Jason Maitre, the Badgers appear to have the back-end on lock.
But it’s hard to say the same about the cornerbacks though. Wisconsin was very thin at CB all spring and failed to bring in any transfers. Fickell brought in the majority of the Cincinnati coaching staff that developed Sauce Gardner and coached one of the best secondaries in the country in 2021, so returners like cornerback Ricardo Hallman could develop into something special. Wisconsin doesn’t have a schedule featuring a ton of game-breaking receivers, so they may be able to get buy without excellent play at this position.
With the arrival of former Cincinnati and Michigan State defensive coordinator, the Badgers should once again have a strong defensive front. Wisconsin projects to only have two or three down linemen on the field at a time and instead use a variety of linebackers to bring pressure from different places. Wisconsin has the big, experienced linemen needed to eat up blocks and make room for the talented linebacker room.
Maema Njongmeta and Jordan Turner – last year’s top two tacklers – return to anchor the middle, while CJ Goetz returns on the outside after starting every game last season. Wisconsin also added Michigan State transfer Jeff Pietrowski who missed the majority of the season last year due to injury but impressed in the spring. Wisconsin has proven that they reload at linebacker and can almost always rely on strong play.
Although the passing game remains a concern, and improved offensive line and defense should bring back the Wisconsin that Big Ten fans remember. However, I see five games Wisconsin can lose this season: at Washington State, vs Iowa, at Illinois, vs Ohio State, and at Minnesota. With the schematic overhaul of both the offense & defense and a new quarterback who has yet to prove himself, I have a really hard time seeing the Badgers come out of those games with only two losses. But at the same time, I think they have a really good shot at knocking off Ohio State this year.
This team has 9-3 written all over them – a record that will likely land them in a tie with Iowa for 1st in the West. That tiebreaker would probably be determined by the winner of their October 14th matchup in Madison. I would bet on nine wins and wait for the line to move to choose over or under.