Another installment where our Basketball Expert asks our Football expert three burning offseason questions. Today, Jordan (Basketball) asks Sean (Football) about if Penn State will potentially break through in the Big Ten East this year, what to expect out of Nebraska in year one of Matt Rhule, and whether or not we are underrating the hirings in West Lafayette.
Jordan: So we originally said we were going to do this every week, but then we did stupid things like travel, attend weddings, and work our full-time jobs.
Sean: I know. How stupid of us?!
Jordan: Anyways, enough about our personal lives and excuses. Let’s get into some burning questions.
Sean: I’m burning to answer them.
Jordan: Ok so, the past few seasons we have seen Michigan break through, beat Ohio State, win the Big Ten and make the CFP.
With questions at QB for OSU and an unproven defense for Michigan, is a breakthrough coming for Penn State and James Franklin?
Sean: It certainly seems like this could be the year for James Franklin. While Michigan fans are confident they’ll have another top-5 defense, I have some reservations about their defensive line. The depth at receiver behind Cornelius Johnson and Roman Wilson is also a big concern.
Ohio State fans are prepared to compete for a national title every single year. But for the first time since 2017, they won’t be able to rely on NFL-quality production from the QB position. Can their defense improve enough to offset that?
Penn State, meanwhile, has a roster as talented as any in college football. Their defense is my preseason favorite as the best in the Big Ten. Headlined by LT Olu Fashanu (who would’ve been a 1st-round pick this year if he entered the draft), the Nittany Lions return four starters from an offensive line group that improved drastically from 2021. They also have one of the best backfield duos in the country, a very deep tight end room, and a strong receiver room thanks to some transfer-portal additions. It’s hard to point out a clear weakness on this team.
But Penn State’s ability to surpass Ohio State and Michigan in 2023 will all depend on the performance of new starting QB Drew Allar. Last year proved again that you need elite quarterback play to compete at the highest level of college football.
A top-5 QB in last year’s class, Allar is already being talked about as a 2025 1st-rounder despite not starting a collegiate game yet. He’s got the size, mechanics, and release to be a a great college quarterback and a future NFL starter… but so did Christian Hackenberg.
James Franklin and his staff will have to develop and fine-tune Allar quickly if they want to compete with the big boys in college football. And that isn’t something this coaching staff has done well with their quarterbacks over the years. Neither Trace McSorley nor Sean Clifford showed a ton of improvement over their long tenures at Penn State.
In short, Penn State’s pass attack needs to be more dynamic and efficient if they want to win college football’s toughest division. I think it’s a lot to expect that of Allar in his first year as a starter. I could be proven wrong very quickly, but I think it’ll take until 2024 for Allar to get this offense where it needs to be. Remember, Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen are both entering only their second year of eligibility this season. So, Penn State might still be another year away from the breakthrough.
Jordan: Allar being unproven really is the Nittany Lions big question. But Michigan and OSU have questions two. I don’t want to sit here in December with Penn State in the Big Ten Title and be like, “I can’t believe we didn’t see this coming” because there are definitely signs this could be the breakthrough year.
One program and fanbase who has been waiting for several breakthroughs is Nebraska. It seems like they’ve got the right kind of guy in Matt Rhule, but ‘Rome wasn’t built in a day’… What are you looking to see out of Big Red in year one under Rhule?
Sean: Couldn’t have said it better myself. Rhule helped turn around Temple and Baylor quickly, hitting double-digit wins in his 3rd season at both schools. But he also won only 3 games combined in his first seasons with Temple and Baylor. So expectations should definitely be tempered in Lincoln for 2023.
There are 3 main things I am looking for out of Nebraska this season as an indication that this program is getting back on track.
On the defensive side of the ball, I hope to see an overall improvement in toughness and fundamentals. It’s not necessarily quantifiable, but you know it when you see it. Nebraska’s defense was an absolute train wreck last season – mainly because it was way too easy to push their defensive front around. In 2022, Nebraska was 99th nationally with only 21 sacks, 109th in rush defense, 94th in yards per carry allowed, and 100th in total defense.
Far too often last season were defensive backs caught on their heels, linebackers late to react, and defensive lineman knocked off the line of scrimmage in one-on-one matchups. If you need a reminder of how bad this defense was, go check out the Georgia Southern highlights.
Defensive turn-arounds aren’t accomplished in one season. Ohio State – who is far more talent-rich than Nebraska – proved that with their performance at the end of the season. But seeing fewer missed tackles, fewer blown assignments, and more pressure from the defensive line would be a great first indicator that this defense is taking the right steps to improve. Once they accomplish that, then we can have a separate discussion about whether or not the 3-3-5 defense they plan on running can be truly elite in the Big Ten.
Second, I’m looking to see if Nebraska can establish an offensive identity. The Huskers actually had some solid talent at quarterback and the skill positions last season. But ineffective play-calling, a nonexistent run game, and stupid mistakes made this a below-average offense in a conference that isn’t known for dynamic offenses.
Nebraska will have it’s hands full trying to turn this offense around in 2023 with a new quarterback, offensive coaching staff, the loss of their top receiver, and question marks around the line. But one thing they can control right away is establishing and sticking with an offensive identity.
It seems like this will be a run-oriented attack with lots of option plays and RPOs. If Nebraska wants to see more success this season, they need to stick to that formula and make sure Jeff Simms isn’t forced to throw the ball 30+ times – even if they find themselves in an early deficit. This season is about fixing mistakes and setting the program up to improve year-over-year – not trying to win every game.
Finally, I really hope to see Nebraska get back to a bowl game. I think a 6-6 finish in the regular season would be a terrific first year for Rhule and his staff. If they can win that game and finish above .500, that’ll be even more momentum they can take into next season.
Some people may think that’s a low bar for Nebraska. But did you realize the Huskers haven’t even made a bowl game since 2016? And the last time they hit 10 wins was in 2012? It’s been a miserable decade for one of college football’s blue-blood programs. A bowl appearance should be the minimum expectation every single season for a storied program like Nebraska. If Matt Rhule can reestablish that in 2023, they’ll already be ahead of schedule.
Jordan: I’m not sure what Big Red fans expect in year one of Matt Rhule. If he does make a bowl game year one it will be interesting to see what the fans think is possible in year 2.
So, Matt Rhule and Luke Fickell have dominated the headlines for the new hires in the Big Ten so much that some hirings in West Lafayette have flown under the radar.
Ryan Walters transformed Illinois’ defense to an elite level (did you realize they gave up the fewest ppg in the country last year?). He hired Graham Harrell as OC (who you may know from being QB at Texas Tech) and is a hot coach with stops at USC and West Virginia before Purdue. And the Boilers landed Hudson Card, a 4-Star QB out of high school, from Texas.
Are we underrating/overlooking what is happening at Purdue?
Sean: The combination of QB Hudson Card and OC Graham Harrell along side Ryan Walters – one of the best young defensive minds in the college football – definitely offers reason for excitement. Coming off the best two-season stretch they’ve since 1997-98, Purdue should not be left out of the Big Ten West conversation.
But I still have Wisconsin and Iowa as heavy favorites to come out of that division. There are just a few too many red flags for Purdue to think they can take down Iowa and Wisconsin this season – both of whom should be in everyone’s preseason top 25.
First of all, Graham Harrell is still largely unproven as a play-caller. West Virginia had one on of the worst offenses in the Big 12 with Harrell at the helm last season. He led a stellar passing attack as OC of USC from 2019-21. But in 2021 – his best offense with the Trojans – they were still in the bottom half of the Pac-12 in rushing and 5th in points per game.
The Big Ten West isn’t the division to be throwing the ball 40+ times every week. Having to face a lot of good defenses and offenses that will try to control the clock and grind out games, a one-dimensional pass attack could spell trouble for Purdue. The Boilers were able to win the West last season despite leading the conference in pass attempts. I don’t think they can manage that again, as the division is much tougher this year. Is Harrell capable of running a truly balanced attack? That remains to be seen.
Even if Harrell wanted to run a fast-paced air-raid attack like he ran with Mike Leach at Texas Tech, Purdue may not have the receiver room to support that in 2023. With TE Payne Durham and WR Charlie Jones gone, TJ Sheffield is the likely to be the go-to receiver. He put up 480 yards and 4 TDs last season.
5th-year seniors Mershawn Rice and Corey Gammage (who transferred from Marshall this season) offer good experience as the next-best options. But the room gets thin real quick. Without a clear alpha receiver or security blanket for new QB Hudson Card (and an incredibly thin running back room behind Devin Mockobee), I think offense might need some time to gel.
As I mentioned with Nebraska, a new defense takes more than a season to fully implement. Purdue finished 9th in points allowed & 10th in total defense last year and I have a hard time seeing them finish much better than that this year.
The arrival of Beliema and Walters to Illinois in 2021 did give the Illini an immediate jolt on defense. But that team had a lot more talent along the defensive front to work with than Purdue appears to. Outside of Kydran Jenkins, there doesn’t seem to be any reliable play-makers along the defensive line. The secondary looks strong, but this division isn’t necessarily full of teams who will burn you deep. You need to be able to stop the run in the West, and that is an area Purdue may struggle with this season.
Purdue also draws Ohio State & Michigan out of the East. With two conference losses almost guaranteed, it’s hard to see Purdue finishing with less than two losses against Iowa, Wisconsin, Illinois, Minnesota, & Nebraska – something they’ll need to accomplish if they want to win the West.
Even though I don’t love their chances to return to Indy this season, Purdue’s outlook as a program is as positive as it’s been this century. I think Ryan Walters will turn this defense into a top-5 unit in the Big Ten within the next three seasons. Graham Harrell still has to prove he can be an elite OC & play-caller, but I think he can continue to produce effective offenses like we’ve seen out of Purdue over the past few seasons. If he is able to recruit well and develop a more balanced attack, the Boilermakers could end up being a scary team to face in the not-so-distant future.
Be patient, Boiler fans. This may not be your year, but the future of the Purdue football program is among the brightest in the Big Ten.