by Sean Szymczak
An arms race in college football is impending. The two biggest powers in the sport – the Big Ten and SEC – will be at 16 teams in 2024. With the Big Ten already sniffing around the Pac-12 and ACC for potential new members to take their member count up to as much as 20, the SEC is sure to follow suit.
A titanic battle between the Big Ten and SEC to assemble the best conference possible is underway. It seems inevitable at this point that, at minimum, the Pac-12 will dissolve. With Florida State starting to vocalize their dissatisfaction with the ACC, more teams could follow them and lead to the dismantling of that conference too.
Everyone is talking about the potential of having two “super conference”, but the Big 12 appears to be more than happy collecting the schools that don’t quite make the cut for the Big Ten or SEC.
Either way, one thing is for sure: major change is coming for college football.
It is nearly impossible to predict what college football will look like in the next 10-15 years. But The Floor Slap attempts to do just that.
The Floor Slap predicts what conferences will look like in 2035. In a new division of college football completely isolated from the NCAA, we also look at what a potential playoff and scheduling format would look like.
The Story
The year is 2035.
Major college football is now broken up into three super conferences. It is also completely separated from the NCAA.
It started about ten years ago when cracks in the ACC and Pac-12 started to falter. Powers from those two conferences flocked to the Big Ten and SEC.
As the conferences grew, so did the revenue. The Big Ten and SEC were becoming quasi-professional leagues while still being babysat by the NCAA the same as Conference USA or the Sun Belt.
Complications across a litany of issues made one thing clear: in order maximize their potential, the Big Ten and SEC would have to form their own division of college football.
But just as power programs like USC, Oregon, Clemson, Florida State, and many others found new homes in the Big Ten and SEC, the Big 12 became the safe-haven for all the programs left out. The logistics of becoming a 30+ team conference was too much for the Big Ten and SEC. This left some great football programs to be scooped by college football’s newest power conference.
The Big Ten, SEC, and “Big America”, as we’ll call it (or rather, a hodge-podge of the surviving Big 12, Pac-12, and ACC schools plus a few G5 schools), formed the new division of college football.
In a brand new league with endless possibilities, 72 schools introduce a new era of college football – the most exciting version of the sport we’ve ever witnessed.
The Conferences
With such large conferences, it became apparent quickly that divisions would need to be reintroduced. Otherwise, fairly determining the top teams in each conference to compete for the conference championship would be near impossible. There would be a litany of teams with the same record who did not play head-to-head.
With conferences stretching across the country, it became increasingly difficult to maintain both geographical and competitive integrity. But the divisions that emerged are fair, maintain some of college football’s best rivalries, and allow for minimal travel between the six schools.
The Conference Championships
Now the first big twist of the new era of college football… conference championships are now a four-team tournament.
The winners of each division will compete over two weeks to be crowned the Big Ten, SEC, and Big America champions.
The standings are determined as they’ve always been – by conference record with head-to-head the primary tiebreaker. In the case of a 3 or 4-team tie in which every team beat each other, the tie-breaker would be the highest ranked team. We will cover how rankings are determined later on.
In the semifinals of the conference championships, the top ranked division champ from each conference play the lowest ranked division champ. The second and third-ranked division champs would also face off.
The winners of the semifinals then compete for the conference championship.
With six games across the three super conferences, the conference semifinals have emerged as one of the more popular days on the football calendar.
The Big Ten hosts their conference semi-finals at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena, CA, while their conference championship continued to be played in Indianapolis.
The SEC hosts their conference semis at AT&T Stadium in Dallas, Texas. Just as the Big Ten, the SEC kept their conference championship at it’s original location in Atlanta, Georgia.
The Big America Conference hosts their conference semis at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, NC (where the former ACC used to host their conference championships). Their conference championship is played at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas.
The Playoff
This is where things get really interesting. It doesn’t take a genius to realize that the new Big Ten and SEC are head-and-shoulders more talented than the Big America Conference.
As the new division of college football was formed, the Big America was happy to just be included. Recognizing that every single college football blueblood resided in the other two conferences, the Big America had no issue taking fewer bids to the new playoff format.
A 14-team playoff was instituted.
The Big Ten and SEC champions earn the top two seeds and a first-round bye. Meanwhile, teams 3-14 compete in six playoff games played on college campuses.
The process of determining the bids and seeding is outlined by conference below:
Big Ten & SEC:
- The Big Ten and SEC champions earn the #1 and #2 seed, have a first-round bye
- The two winners of the conference semi-finals earn automatic bids to the playoff. So the four teams competing in the Big Ten & SEC Championship will have already secured their spot in the playoff
- The Big Ten and SEC are also guaranteed at least two at-large bids each. They are the highest-ranked teams from each conference that did not make it to the conference championships
- At minimum, the Big Ten and SEC will have four teams each in the playoff. At maximum, the Big Ten or SEC can have eight teams in the playoff
Big America
- The Big America champion receives an automatic bid to the playoff. Although they don’t receive a bye-week, they are guaranteed a top-8 seed which gives them a home playoff game
- The Big America is guaranteed at least one at-large bid. They are the highest ranked team from the Big America, regardless of whether they were a division champion
- At minimum, the Big America will have two teams in the playoff. At maximum, they can have six
With the Big Ten and SEC guaranteed four teams in the playoff each and the Big America Conference guaranteed two teams, that leaves four at-large bids remaining. These bids are the highest ranked remaining teams regardless of conference.
After the first round of campus-based playoff games, the remaining eight teams are reseeded so the #1 seed plays the lowest remaining seed, the #2 seed plays the second-lowest remaining seed, and so on.
The quarterfinals and semifinals make up six total games. Those six playoff games are played as a part of college football’s major bowl games: the Rose Bowl, Sugar Bowl, Orange Bowl, Cotton Bowl, Peach Bowl, and Fiesta Bowl.
The quarterfinals and semifinals are done tournament-style – meaning teams will not be reseeded. The winner of the 1 vs 8 seed plays the winner of 4 vs 5 seed and the winner of the 2 vs 7 seed plays the winner of the 3 vs 6 seed.
The national championship is not affiliated with a bowl. This game is rotated every year to different stadiums across the country.
As you may have realized, the rankings play a big part in determining the seeding and bids for the playoff. The objectivity of the rankings in the CFP era was a big issue.
Let’s dig into how the new era of college football tackled the ranking system.
The Rankings
The official college football rankings system is an average of two separate rankings: the coach’s poll and a computer-generated ranking.
One representative from each of the 72 schools submits their rankings. All 72 rankings are averaged to determine the coach’s poll ranking. In order to eliminate pre-season bias, these rankings are not done until the first week in November.
The idea of utilizing the coach’s poll is that any bias demonstrated by one coach’s poll will be offset by another coach with completely different interests. With each conference having the same weight, we don’t have to worry about something like SEC favoritism. There is something to be said about the “eye test” which is why it is important to incorporate a human element into the rankings.
But they eye test can only take you so far and leaves plenty of room for personal biases. That is why it is equally important to have a non-biased, computer-based aspect to the rankings.
Starting in November, the coach’s poll and computer rankings are released and averaged to determine the official college football rankings.
The Schedule
The 14-week regular season is maintained but all 72 teams play a 10-game conference schedule: five games against your division, three cross-divisional games (one game against a school in each of the other three divisions), and two ‘free’ conference games. The ‘free’ conference games could be a protected rivalry game (like Auburn vs Alabama, who are not in the same division) or they could just be more rotating conference games.
Each team is also required to schedule a game against a team in one of the other two major conferences. Non-conference games are still a very important aspect to college football. They drive viewership with more high-quality matchups. They also offer a measuring stick for the quality of each conference in any given season. These matchups help build the most accurate rankings possible.
Each team is also given a “free week.” Schools can utilize this week any way they wish. They can schedule another game against one of the power conferences, a team in a division below them (so the SEC can keep their precious FCS matchups), or they can give themselves an additional bye week. It is entirely up the individual schools how to utilize this week. Non-conference games do not have an impact on your conference standing which motivates teams to utilize this 12th game.
To accommodate player’s time with family around the holidays, the start of the season had to be moved up. The final week of the regular season is now the weekend before Thanksgiving. The conference semifinals and conference championships are played over the next two weekends.
The first round of the playoffs (the games played on-campus) continues the following week – the first or second weekend in December. The six games are played over two days, each with their own broadcasting window.
The quarterfinals continue over New Year’s – the period when the CFP used to occur. The semifinals continue one week later.
Finally, the national championship is played two weeks after the conclusion of the semifinals. The natty is played on either the third or fourth weekend in January, depending on how the calendar plays out.
The maximum amount of games a team can play in this format is 18. This would occur if you reach your conference championship (but don’t earn a first-round bye) and then reach the national championship.
Why This Format Works
Equitable Scheduling & the Continuation of Key Rivalries
It first must be recognized that the quality of each conference division will vary greatly year to year. It is impossible to format divisions so there is even competitiveness every single season. With that being said, the divisions within each conference are relatively even. I don’t think there is a single division in any of the three conferences that you can point to and say it is unfairly loaded.
With a 10-game conference schedule, five or so of which rotate every single year, every team should have a fairly even schedule. And with at least one non-conference game against the other two conferences, you still get exciting new matchups every year.
The best thing about this format is the schedule allows for every single key rivalry to be maintained. A lot of the best rivalries are kept within the divisions. But for rivalries that are broken up by divisions (like Auburn vs Alabama and FSU vs Florida), there are two conference-game slots that can be saved for protected rivalries. And with two non-conference game slots, rivalries that are separated by conferences (like Oregon vs Oregon State and Washington vs Washington State) can still be scheduled on an annual basis.
In a five-year span, each school should be able to play at least one game against every other team in their conference – a great feat considering the size of these conferences. Schedules are equitable across college football. Rivalries are protected. We still get exciting non-conference matchups. And there is still a game slot to face lower-level college football teams should schools desire that. There are very few, if any, downsides to this format from a scheduling perspective.
A Fair Chance to Reach the Playoff, Compete for Championships
Teams only have to compete with the other five teams in their division for a legitimate chance to reach the playoff and compete for a national championship. The conference semifinals is really an extension of the playoff. You win your division and reach the conference semis, you now control your own destiny to win a national championship.
But even if you don’t win your division, there is still ample opportunity to reach the playoff. If you are one of the top eight ranked teams in the Big Ten or SEC or the top six ranked teams in the Big America, you have a legitimate chance to receive an at-large playoff bid.
Let’s take a look back at the Northwestern teams who won the Big Ten West in 2018 and 2020. Even if they were to beat Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship, Northwestern never had a chance to reach the playoff. But under this format, Northwestern would have been a shoe-in to reach the playoff.
How about those exciting Manziel-led Texas A&M teams? Stuck in a stacked SEC West, A&M had a nearly impossible path to play for a national championship. But under this format, they would have definitely earned an at-large bid.
With about one fifth of the new division of college football reaching the playoff, every team can enter the season with legitimate dreams of competing for a national championship.
More Meaningful Football Games
With 14 of the 72 major college football teams earning a playoff bid, one might argue that the regular season loses it meaning under this format. Quite the contrary.
Every single game still matters to a degree. There are just multiple levels for what you are competing for.
The competition to win your division will be as fierce as ever. In the Big Ten and SEC, you are then one win away from securing your spot in the playoff. You are also two wins away from securing one of the prized bye-weeks. In the Big America, division winners are two wins away from securing a from securing a playoff spot.
Even if you don’t win your division, you are still competing to be as highly ranked as possible. One win could be the difference between hosting a playoff game or having to travel to someone else’s campus. In December when many of these schools are experiencing bitter temperatures and severe weather, where you play that initial playoff game could make all the difference in the world. One game could also be the difference between grabbing the 14th and final seed or missing the playoff entirely.
There are simply more games being played that directly impact the race for the playoff and national championship than there ever has been in the history of college football.
In Conclusion
Listen, I can’t sit here and tell you this is exactly how the conferences will turn out. In fact, there are current rumors of Cal joining the Big Ten. I have Cal in the “Big America” here.
But there are a few aspects that I am very confident will come to fruition:
- There will be 3 super conferences, totaling somewhere in the range of 64-90 schools
- The Big Ten and SEC will maintain their names and branding
- These three super conferences will separate from the NCAA and form a new division of college football
- A new playoff format – exclusive for the three super conferences – will be instituted
How TV deals work out and how these conferences form a new governing body of college football is an entirely different conversation. These two aspects are likely to delay such a change from occurring for a long time. In fact, this drastic might be a more realistic scenario for 2050.
The future of college football is as uncertain as it is exciting.
No matter how the future of the sport shakes out, Big Ten fans can find solace in the fact that while so many schools and conferences are floundering amid uncertainty, the Big Ten is continuing to grow and will emerge from this round of realignment stronger than ever.