by Sean Szymczak
Championship Contenders
Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan
For the majority of the past couple decades, Ohio State has been the only team that could legitimately call themselves a national title contender. Michigan joined OSU at the top of the conference a couple years ago. Now, for the first time since the Joe Paterno era, Penn State enters 2023 with justifiable hopes of a Big Ten and National Championship.
Ohio State has reached the CFP in 3 of the past 4 years and Michigan in each of the past 2. Anything short of a playoff appearance would be an utter failure for both of these ultra-talented teams.
The closest Penn State has gotten to reaching the playoff was in 2016 when they finished 5th in the final CFP rankings. This season, they may only have to beat one of Ohio State and Michigan. Depending on how the rest of the conferences shake out, an 11-1 season might be enough for Penn State to get into the playoff even without making the Big Ten Championship.
Ohio State plays at Notre Dame – a likely preseason top-10 team – at the end of September. If they win, they will likely earn a “freebee” and stay in the top four even with a blemish on their record.
Michigan’s non-conference schedule and Big Ten West cross-overs are so weak that one loss is likely to eliminate them from the playoff. That is, unless they go 12-0 and then lose in the Big Ten Championship.
The Challengers
Wisconsin, Iowa, Maryland
Wisconsin, Iowa, and Maryland should all improve drastically in 2023. Each of them could pose a legitimate threat to any team in college football. If Ohio State, Penn State, or Michigan lose a B1G game that’s not against each other, it’ll be against one of these teams.
Wisconsin is the closest to reaching the top tier. With Luke Fickell at the helm and a litany of returners on defense, they are sure to be one of the conference’s best on that side of the ball. They also boast one of college football’s best offensive lines and tailbacks in Braelon Allen. In what will likely be a pass-happier offense than we are used to from the Badgers, quarterback play holds the key to their ceiling. If Tanner Mordecai plays at an All-Big Ten level, Wisconsin could be a legitimate playoff contender.
Although Iowa’s defense won’t be quite as dominant as last year, they return nearly every starter on offense and get a massive upgrade with QB Cade McNamara. He has gotten rave reviews about his leadership and talent throughout the spring and so far this fall. Kirk Ferentz tends to perform best when expectations are low, and no one is expecting much out of this offense in 2023.
Maryland is flying under everyone’s radar this year. The reality is they were an 8-win team in 2022 that gave Ohio State and Michigan all they could handle in their matchups. The Terps still need to show tremendous improvement in the trenches. But they have an embarrassment of riches at the offensive skill positions as well as All-Big Ten talents in the backend of their defense with S Beau Brade and LB Jaishawn Barham. Not to mention an incredibly talented QB by the name of Taulia Tagovailoa.
Definite Bowl Teams
Illinois, Minnesota
The floor for both Illinois and Minnesota in 2023 is 6-6. Brett Bielema and PJ Fleck are proven winners in the Big Ten and carry esteemed, winning cultures.
Illinois is closer to jumping a tier. New QB Luke Altmyer has a plethora of receiving options and a strong offensive line at his disposal. Despite one of the best defensive fronts in all of college football, their defense is sure to take a step back thanks to massive losses in the secondary. The loss of RB Chase Brown looms large, so I’m not sure their offense will improve enough to top last year’s 8-win total. But a bowl berth should be an easy accomplishment for such an experienced team.
I have plenty of reservations about QB Athan Kaliakmanis and how the Gophers are able to reload after several key losses on both sides of the ball. But PJ Fleck has proven over the past four seasons that he has his program is healthy and capable of filling in losses. It also helps that Kaliakmanis will have loads of weapons to distribute the ball to. The Big Ten West is still not the sexiest division, but Minnesota is more than capable of picking up a few wins even in a down year.
Promising New Regimes
Purdue, Nebraska
Purdue and Nebraska both went through complete overhauls of their coaching staffs. It’s too early to tell what the result of such massive personnel and scheme changes will be, but there have been some promising signs.
Ryan Walters and Matt Rhule have both gotten off to hot starts on the recruiting trail with a couple of top-25 classes early in the 2024 cycle.
Walters is bringing over the 3-4 defense that made Illinois into one of college football’s best defenses in 2022 to West Lafayette. It is a linebacker-heavy scheme, which plays into Purdue’s strengths for 2023. Walters is coupling his defense with an air-raid offensive attack led by Graham Harrell – a legacy of the late, great Mike Leach. That could be a lethal pairing once Walters fills out the roster with his players.
Matt Rhule is bringing a similar defensive shakeup with his 3-3-5 led by Tony White – the architect of Syracuse’s great defenses over the past few seasons. I have my doubts about the 3-3-5’s success in a run-heavy, offensive line-dominant conference like the Big Ten. But Rhule’s and White’s track records speak for themselves. With the help of OC Marcus Satterfield, Rhule is implementing a pro-style offense that will center around the ground game, options, and RPOs. But as Scatterfield loves to do, they are sure to take their shots downfield.
Walters and Rhule offer loads of optimism for the future. But I still have to see it before I can believe it. A ton cannot be expected in these coaches’ first years, but a bowl appearance by each would be a great sign that these programs are heading in the right direction.
Put Up or Shut Up
Michigan State, Rutgers, Indiana
The luster of Indiana’s magical run in the covid season seems to have finally wore off of Tom Allen. The Hoosiers have only won two conference games since – six wins in total. The Hoosiers lost a lot on the defensive side of the ball but attacked the transfer portal hard. They also have a nice group of offensive skill position players and (hopefully) improved QB play with the additions of Traevon Jackson and Brendan Sorsby. It seems like Tom Allen might have to get Indiana to a bowl game if he wants to get off the hot seat and return for 2024.
Greg Schiano’s second attempt at a Rutgers rebuild is not going as nicely as the first time. But Schiano sounded more confident than ever over Big Ten Media Days. The Scarlet Knights return a solid and very underrated defensive core that could cause problems for a lot of teams.
But the entire season rests on the soldiers of QB Gavin Wymsat. A former 4-star recruit, Wymsat hasn’t shown many signs of promise through his first two season. Now named the full-time starter, he has to breathe some life into an offense that was utterly incompetent in 2023.
Schiano has a far longer than leash than Tom Allen. Frankly, it’s because Rutgers doesn’t have many options if they were to let him go. But there has to be some indication that Rutgers is heading in the right direction this season. If not, adding talent to this roster will only get harder.
Michigan State is just a season removed from an 11-win campaigns. But that 2021 team had one of the worst defenses in the country and was carried on the back of an outstanding season by Kenneth Walker. Maligned by offensive line injuries in 2022, the Spartans’ offense took a major step back while their defense didn’t improve much.
There is some quiet optimism in East Lansing heading into 2023. I could see a major defensive turnaround happening this year. But despite the great reviews new QB Noah Kim has gotten, I have major doubts about this offense. If Michigan State fails to at least get to a bowl game again in 2023, Mel Tucker’s seat will heat up like a skillet.
Rock Bottom
Northwestern
I think the title of this tier nails it honestly.
After a couple down seasons – on fact, the worst two-season stretch Pat Fitzgerald had in twenty years – the greatest figure on Northwestern sports history was booted from the school thanks to a scandal involving the Wildcats’ culture and locker room activities.
David Braun – Northwestern’s new DC who has been with the school only since January – was tasked with taking over. Although he has handled the situation with grace and answered every question hurled at him perfectly, there is no indication that Braun is capable of salvaging this program.
Obtaining enough talent to stay competitive in major college football was already difficult enough for Northwestern thanks to it’s rigorous academic standards and location. Now with it’s reputation smeared, Northwestern is easily the most unappealing job out of the major conferences.
I have no idea what the future holds for Northwestern. But I have a hard time them being competitive again any time soon.