by Sean Szymczak
Illinois: RB Production
Chase Brown the driving force behind Illinois’ offense last season. He accounted for 62% of the team’s carries and 72% of the team’s total rush yards. His replacements – Reggie Love III and Josh McCray – had a combined 372 yards on 4.2 yards per carry.
The Illini can’t rely on the same defensive dominance as last year with the immense losses in the secondary. If Illinois wants to contend for the Big Ten West, this offense will need to take a step forward and improve in 2023.
New QB Luke Altmyer has plenty of weapons at his disposal and the offensive line should continue to develop. This this offense will likely hinge on Love & McCray’s play-making abilities. Can they make up for Chase Brown’s production after accounting for over 1,800 total yards in 2022?
Indiana: Transfer Impact
Indiana has a litany of impact transfer additions across both sides of the ball. The defensive line added Andre Carter from WMU, Trey Laing from USF, and Anthony Jones from Oregon. The new trio will likely be relied upon as the Hoosiers’ top pass-rushers.
Jacob Mangum-Farrar after arrives to Bloomington after five years at Stanford. He will likely be Indiana’s starting middle linebacker.
Indiana’s secondary is made up almost entirely of transfers – many of which have little to no experience in their careers. Texas transfer Jamier Johnson might end up being their best defensive back.
Two of the most promising new arrivals are on offense in receivers Dequece Carter from Fordham and EJ Williams from Clemson. The duo, alongside Cam Camper, could elevate this offense to the next level.
Indiana’s entire season will depend on how quickly these transfers can adjust and become leaders of this football team. This will also be a testament to the culture Tom Allen has at Indiana. Anyone can fill losses with some more bodies via the portal nowadays. But is Allen bringing in guys who will buy into the program, find a role on the team, and excel in that role? We will see.
Iowa: Offensive Creativity
Iowa’s defense will be great once again. Will it be as good as last year? Probably not. But the Hawkeyes will certainly be able to lean on their defense once again in 2023.
There is also no question that Iowa’s personnel is more dynamic and experienced on the offensive side on the ball compared to last year. Virtually everyone returns and they add Cade McNamara at QB and Kaleb Brown at WR.
But talent hasn’t necessarily been the problem in past seasons. The Hawkeyes have finished in the bottom half of the Big Ten in total yards in each of the past seven full seasons. They have also been in the bottom five of the conference in both points and yards in each of the past two.
Iowa has a chance to be really good in 2023. In fact, they have a legitimate shot at the playoff if they knock off Penn State on September 23rd in the white out. But Iowa will only meet that potential if Brian Ferentz and his staff show some more creativity on offense.
They have an experienced offensive line, a dynamic duo of tight ends, a workhorse running back, and a proven winner at QB. It’s time for Iowa to figure out ways to get their athletes the ball in space. Jet sweeps, RPOs, wildcat formations, more diverse route trees… anything.
The Hawkeyes are coming off two of the worst offensive seasons they have had under Kirk Ferentz. They can skate by with 7 or 8 wins every year should they never choose to deviate from their run dominant, full fledged pro-style scheme. If they ever want to contend with the big boys in college football, their offense needs to adapt a little bit.
Maryland: OL Play
Maryland’s QB and offensive skill positions are as good as anyone’s in the Big Tne. They have the potential to give Ohio State, Penn State, and Michigan some real problems in the Big Ten East. Their defense has some promising pieces. But if they are going to pull off upsets like that then it is going to come from putting up points.
The only thing that might keep this offense from being truly elite is their offensive line. They return one of the conference’s best in tackle DJ Glaze but virtually everyone other starter will be new.
There are some xcitign new additions like Gottlieb Ayedze (1st-team All America in D2 each of the past three seasons), Marcus Dumervil (former 4-star prospect from LSU), and Corey Bullock (all-conference in the past two seasons at North Carolina Central). But with a trip to Columbus at the end of September, this unit will have to gain cohesion quickly if they want to hang with the Buckeyes.
If everyone on this offensive line meets their potential, this will be an incredibly difficult offense to stop. But if a couple of the positions fall through the cracks and become liabilities, a promising season for the Terps could fall by the waistside.
Michigan: Downfield Pass Attack
Make no mistake – Michigan can lean on their run game and defense and cruise to a 10-win season pretty easily. That’s how good they are.
But 2023 is no longer about beating Ohio State or winning the Big Ten for Michigan. It’s about getting back to the CFP, winning a game, and competing for a national championship. The CFP continuously demonstrates the importance of having elite quarterback play and a dynamic offense that can beat you multiple ways. If Michigan wants to win a natty, this passing attack needs to develop.
JJ McCarthy was outside the top-25 nationally in yards, touchdowns, completion percentage, rating, and yards per attempt. He also loses his best receiving option in Ronnie Bell. Cornelius Johnson and Roman Wilson – the only two Wolverine receivers with any experience – are both great after the catch but have yet to prove they be true WR1s. Is Michigan’s tight end room really deep and dynamic enough to make this an elite pass game?
Michigan will be great again in 2023 and be in the thick of the Big Ten and CFP race until the very end of the seasons. But how JJ McCarthy and these receivers develop will be the key to the Wolverines getting over the hump. But remember – Michigan also lost their top offensive coach in Matt Weiss.
Michigan State: Secondary
Michigan State has been in the bottom two of the Big Ten in pass yards allowed, pass touchdowns allowed, and opponent completion percentage in each of the past two seasons. The Spartan pass defense needs to step up in 2023.
Michigan State actually boasts a formidable defensive front. Cal Haladay is one of the best middle linebackers in the country and he is surrounded by guys like Jacoby Windom, Khris Bogle, and Avery Dun who can get after the quarterback.
But none of that will matter if they can’t keep the top on this defense. Michigan State plays Washington, Ohio State, Penn State and Maryland this year – all of those teams are very capable of going deep and attack mismatches in the secondary. Not to mention Indiana, Minnesota, and Michigan too who are also very capable of giving corners fits.
Michigan State has a brand new quarterback in Noah Kim and a very thin room of receivers for him to throw to. If the Spartans want to become a Big Ten East contender again then they will need to lean on their defense. And that won’t be a recipe for success unless their pass defense can at least finish in the top 10 of the Big Ten.
Minnesota: Athan Kaliakmanis
There are 3 things I know for sure about Minnesota in 2023: their defense won’t be as good as it was in 2022, Mo Ibrahim will be extremely difficult to replace at running back, and the Gophers have a ton of talent & depth at receiver.
With the defense and run game not likely to be as consistent as it was last year, Minnesota will need to have improved quarterback play if they want to contend in the Big Ten West. That falls squarely on the shoulders of Athan Kaliakmanis.
There aren’t too many excuses for Kaliakmanis this season. The Floor Slap rates Minnesota’s running back unit, receiver unit, and offensive line unit all in the top six of the Big Ten. He has six legitimate receivers to throw to and a dynamic new running back in WMU transfer Sean Tyler.
Kaliakmanis earned a 4-star grade from 247 and ESPN. After redshirting 2021, he gained valuable experience last season by appearing in 11 games. The 6’4″ QB showed off flashes of an impressive arm but struggled with this decision-making. He completed 54% of his passes for 946 yards, 3 TDs, and 4 INTs. He also ran for 140 yards and a TD on over 4 yards per rush.
Athan Kaliakmanis’ ceiling is higher than Tanner Morgan. He has the physical tools to elevate this offense into one of the Big Ten’s best. But that’s also a lot to expect out of a first year starter.
Nebraska: How Quickly Defense Can Grasp the 3-3-5
The Cornhuskers are going through massive amounts of change with the addition of Matt Rhule, OC Marcus Satterfield, and DC Tony White.
I am confident Nebraska’s offense will take a step forward and cut down on mistakes. Jeff Simms is a veteran with plenty of experience running option & RPO schemes at Georgia Tech – we’ll likely see similar stuff out of Nebraska in 2023. He also has a big arm capable of taking the downfield shots Satterfield loves so much. Nebraska has a solid group of skill position players to support Simms.
I am more concerned about this defense when it comes to 2023 performance. There is no doubt Rhule & White are capable of turning around this side of the ball and helping the Huskers resemble the blackshirts of old. But with a dramatic scheme change like this, things could get worse before they get better.
Nebraska was bottom three in the Big Ten, in total yards allowed, rush yards allowed, pass yards allowed, yards per rush allowed, opponent coompletion percentage, and turnovers forced. There is a lot to clean up.
To make matters worse, Nebraska is going to rely on major production from freshmen on the defensive line. They also lost one off their most experienced defensive backs in safety Myles Farmer who hit the portal after bieng suspended indefinitely.
If the players buy in early and learn their assignments to a tee in this new defense, Nebraska just might be contending for a spot in the Big Ten Championship come November. But if this defense takes a while to kick in, it could be another long season for Husker fans in 2023 before Rhule gets the ship steered around.
Northwestern: Intangibles
I won’t sugarcoat things here – Northwestern has a tough road ahead for 2023 and beyond.
Interim head coach David Braun has only been with the program since January and isdealing with the massive fallout from Pat Fitzgerald’s firing. He takes over a team that has won four games combined over the past two seasons and lost a few young, talented pieces to the portal after Fitzgerald left.
UTEP and Howard are likely to be the only two games Northwestern is favored in all season. I don’t think there is a single position group or player that will determine how succesful Northwestern can be this season.
If the Wildcats are to do the unthinkable and get to six wins in 2023, it will be because of unbelievable resolve by the players. The leadership of Braun, his assistants, and players like Bryce Gallagher, Ben Bryant, Coco Azema, & Cam Porter will be of the utmost importance.
Ohio State: Defensive Development in Knowles’ 2nd Year
Ohio State’s two biggest question marks heading into the season is quarterback and offensive line. Kyle McCord and Devin Brown are still in a dead heat for the starting job. The interior offensive line seems to be sured up but there is still the massive task of replacing Dawand Jones and Paris Johnson at tackle.
But Ryan Day’s track record at quarterback speaks for itself. McCord and Brown were each 5-star prospects and should be able to manage this offense fine after a few weeks. After all, they have the best collection of skill position players in the country. Even in a down year, Ohio State should be among the nation’s best in scoring.
To put it plainly: if Ohio State wants to win a national championship this year, their defense will have to make massive strides. Not the offense.
The Buckeye defense definitely improved in 2023, but their inability to stop big plays ultimately caused their last two losses. The big plays were often due to blown coverages in the secondary, but even Ohio State’s veteran linebackers missed a few assignments that they shouldn’t have.
Ohio State has the talent to be a truly elite defense. But that depends on how much guys like Jack Sawyer, Denzel Burke, and Lathan Ransom improve, how budding stars CJ Hicks and Sonny Styles are introduced to the rotation, and how much better they understadn Jim Knowles’ scheme.
Jim Knowles did not perform magical one-year turn arounds before he came to Columbus. It was often a multi-year fix that culminated in a great third season. But if Ohio State wants to knock off teams like Michigan and Georgia this year, that big jump may have to come a year early.
Penn State: Rate of Drew Allar’s Maturation
There is no question Penn State has one of the best rosters in all of college football. They did last year too. But getting over the hump and competing with Ohio State & Michigan will fall on Drew Allar.
I think this is pretty simple. If he can’t elevate his game above what Sean Clifford was last year, Penn State will likely go 10-2 again and be forced to settle for a non-playoff NY6 bowl game.
If Drew Allar matures quickly and plays like a top-10 quarterback in the country, Penn State has every chance to win the East and earn their first ever CFP birth.
The key note there is how quickly he matures. There is little doubt in my mind that Drew Allar will finish 2024 as a 1st-round draft prospect. I also think he’ll have at least one win over either Ohio State or Michigan by then. But I’m not sure he’ll be able to accomplish that all this season.
Drew Allar is still a 1st-year starting QB. He has all the physical tools you could want, but nothing makes up for experience. CJ Stroud entered 2021 as a second-year player and 1st-year starting QB too. His struggles in the first month of that season seem far away now, but the growing pains were real. With a tough Iowa defense coming to town at the end of September, Drew Allar maturing quickly is vital to Penn State’s 2023 success.
Purdue: Performance of Defensive Front
Purdue’s offense should be fine in 2023. Led by Hudson Card, Devin Mockobee, and Graham Harrell as OC, the Boilermakers should be able to put up points.
Turning around the defense is the bigger task. New head coach Ryan Walters specializes at coaching up defensive backfields. That happens to be Purdue’s strength with guys like Cam Allen & Sanoussi Kane as well as a couple transfer portal additions.
But a lot is asked of the linebackers in the 3-4 defense Walters is bringing over from Wisconsin. Depth is a bit of a concern there for the Boilers outside of OC Brothers and Kydran Jenkins.
The defense also requires a lot of size along the defensive line to eat up blocks and get after the passer. Purdue doesn’t seem to have quite the size that Illinois boasted over the past couple seasons.
I think Walters will be able to turn Purdue’s defense around and make it close to a top-five unit in the conference. In time, that is. As for 2023, Purdue should have solid play from their defensive backs. But how quickly this defense can begin to turn it around will depend on the defensive front.
Rutgers: Gavin Wimsatt
Rutgers’ anemic offense was somehow overshadowed by Iowa in 2022. But don’t be mistaken – Rutgers was horrific on the offensive side of the ball last year.
Schiano & company return a solid core on the defensive side of the ball with guys like Aaron Lewis, Max Melton, and Deion Jennings. The stats may not reflect it because of how often they are on the field, but I think Rutgers’ defense is in the top half of the Big Ten this season.
Nonetheless, their defense alone won’t be enough to get this program heading back in the right direction with a bowl appearance. The offense needs to make major improvements and it all starts with QB Gavin Wimsatt.
A 4-star prospect in the 2021 class, Wimsatt has appeared in 12 games over his first couple seasons but hasn’t impressed. He’s completed 45% of his passes for 802 yards, 5 TDs, and 9 INTs. Wimsatt hasn’t been totally healthy and has the benefit of getting all the 1st-team reps this off-season. He’s also the most athletic quarterback Rutgers has had in their history.
Gavin Wimsatt is still a long way off from being a competent starting quarterback in major college football. If he stays healthy, can consistently hit open receivers within 15 yards of the line of scrimmage, completes over 50% of his passes, and throws more TDs than INTs, then Rutgers could surprise a lot of people this year. But that’s asking a lot out of a guy with less than 50 career pass attempts.
Wisconsin: QB Production
Wisconsin doesn’t appear to have a whole lot of weaknesses heading into 2023. Braelon Allen is a stud at running back, they havbe one of the Big Ten’s best offensive lines, a deep group of experienced receivers, and a ton of talent back on defense.
With Luke Fickell, Mike Tressel, and a few other key coordinators coming over from Cincinnati, I think Wisconsin’s defense will get back on track and be one of the conference’s best.
What will determine if Wisconsin is a legitimate Big Ten Title & CFP contender or just a Big Ten West contender is the play of theier quarterback.
Tanner Mordecai bringshigh expectations to Madison after accumulating over 7,100 yards and 72 TDs over the past two seasons at SMU. The 6th-year quarterback brings tons of experience running similar offensive schemes but struggled in the spring. His struggles culminated in a 4-INT performance in the spring game.
Fickell is changing a lot about Wisconsin’s identity. We will see a lot more passing and even some tempo from the Badgers. This change may not take just one year to successfully implement – especially if Mordecai fails to adapt and can’t provide consistent play against the superior defenses he’s about to face.