by Sean Szymczak
The race for the 2023 Big Ten Championship should be one of the most competitive conference races in all of college football.
The Big Ten East is the best division in the country with Ohio State, Michigan, and Penn State all thinking CFP. Maryland looks to take another step under Mike Locksley and finally contend with the heavy hitters in the Big Ten. Michigan State should bounce back from a disappointing season and make a bowl game at least.
The Big Ten West is much improved from 2022 – thanks in part to new regimes at Purdue, Nebraska, and Wisconsin. Brett Bielema should have Illinois back in the thick of the race. Minnesota could have a dangerous offense if Athan Kaliakmanis develops.
I think Penn State, Michigan, and Ohio State will all enter the final week of the regular season with a legitimate path to the CFP. Iowa and Wisconsin each have the potential to hit double-digit wins and reach the Big Ten title an upset away from a potential playoff appearance.
Ultimately, I predict an unconventional matchup of Penn State vs Iowa in the 2023 Big Ten Championship.
Big Ten East
1) Penn State (11-1, 8-1 B1G)
The gap between Michigan, Ohio State, & Penn State at a talent level is razor thin – why the hell can’t this happen? I think it will take some time for Drew Allar to develop and perform at a truly elite level (or at least better than Sean Clifford last year). Until that happens, the rest of the team is talented enough to win games.
Penn State’s offensive line should continue to improve thanks in part to the treurn of future 2st-rounder Olumuyiwa Fashanu. Nick Singleton & Kaytron Allen are every bit as talented as any other running back in the country. They got two huge additions at receiver in transfers Dante Sephas & Malik McClain to pair with returners KeAndre Lambert-Smith & Harrison Wallace. This will be a tough offense for anyone in the country to stop.
Defensively, they are almost flawless with All-American talent at all three levels. Their biggest weakness last year was the lack of size and depth along the interior defensive line. Despite the loss of PJ Mustipher, James Franklin feels confident in the improvement of the unit.
Penn State has to be careful not to slip up against Iowa at the end of September. But that is the white out game, so I think Penn State will be 6-0 heading into their matchup at Ohio State. I’m not sure if Allar will be ready for his first hostile environment against an elite defense. But the Nittany Lions match up against Michigan much better this year and I think they will be playing their best football late in the season. I like them to pull off the upset.
Their spot in the Big Ten Championship would come down to the result of The Game on November 25th.
2) Michigan (11-1, 8-1 B1G)
Michigan is the emerging favorite to win the Big Ten and a popular pick to win it all – and for good reason. Thanks to more additions in the transfer portal, the Wolverine offensive line is gunning for a third straight Joe Moore Award. Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards are well documented as the nation’s best running back duo. JJ McCarthy is being disussed as a potential 1st-round pick on the 2024 NFL Draft.
Led by Will Johnson, Mike Sainristil, Makari Paige, & Rod Moore, Michigan might have the best secondary in the country. Their defensive front is also amongst the best in the Big Ten with Junior Colson, Kris Jenkins, & Jaylen Harrell.
But their schedule really concerns me. Michigan’s faces virtually no true challengers in the first nine games. There is a real chance JJ McCarthy doesn’t attempt a 4th-quarter pass in any of them. Then they play at Penn State, at Maryland, and vs Ohio State in successive weeks to close the season. Penn State will be more than battle tested heading into that game and will be looking for revenge after last year’s embarrassment. In all honestly, I could see Michigan losing any three of these games.
If the Wolverines emerge 12-0 in the regular season, I think they’ll win the national championship. But I’m concerned about Cornelius Johnson and Roman Wilson’s ability to test the Big Ten’s best cornerbacks and make contested catches. Michigan’s pass rush also took a step back last year and I think it will again in 2023. I just don’t see them winning all three games to finish the season.
3) Ohio State (10-2, 7-2 B1G)
Every position group will be definitively better than last year except for two: offensive line and quarterback. Unfortunately, those are the two position groups needed to win championships in modern college football.
Given Ryan Day’s reputation at Ohio State and the embarrassment of riches at running back, wide receiver, & tight end, I think it’s safe to give Kyle McCord/Devin Brown the benefit of the doubt. This offense will put up points. The interior of the Buckeye offensive line might actually be better thanks to the return of Matthew Jones & Donovan Jackson. But Ohio State must replace a couple of NFL tackles without much experience to lean on. Whoever ends up starting at QB better be willing to use his les.
I think Ohio State has the best defensive front in the entire country. Defensive ends JT Tuimoloau & Jack Sawyer and an incredibly deep group of defensive line tackles will be nightmarish to block. Tommy Eichenberg is the best middle linebacker in the country.
The potential of this defense rests in the secondary. The emergence of Sonny Styles this off-season is a game-changer at safety. But Ohio State still needs better play by Denzel Burke & company at corner.
Ohio State has a midseason stretch of: at Notre Dame, vs Maryland, at Purdue, vs Penn State, at Wisconsin. That’s a brutal stretch – one I don’t think the Buckeyes make it out of unscathed. Despite that, I think Ohio State will go into their season finale at Michigan with a chance to make their first Big Ten Championship since 2020.
At this point of the off-season, we simply know more about Michigan than Ohio State. The Buckeyes need to see vastly improved play along the offensive line and in the secondary in order for them to beat their arch rival again. There is plenty of time for Ohio State to see their full potential, but Michigan doesn’t give any reason to think they can’t win once again.
4) Maryland (9-3, 6-3 B1G)
The return of Taulia Tagovailoa has Mike Locksley thinking Big Ten Championship in 2023. The veteran QB will once again have a plethora of receiving options. The Terps should also be able to lean on the run game more with Freshman All- American Roman Hemby.
Maryland’s back seven have some premier playmakers in Beau Brade, Ja’Quan Sheppard, and Jaishawn Barham. They should be able to help improve a unit than finished last year 8th in the Big Ten on points allowed, 9th in yards allowed, and 10th in turnovers forced.
Maryland’s ceiling will depend almost solely on the performance along the line of scrimmage. Their offensive line has only returner – albeit an All-Big Ten tackle in DJ Glaze. The rest of the line is likely to be made up of underclassmen and new arrivals. The Terps added four transfers and some of them are very promising prospects. But cohesion is likely to be a problem early in the season.
The defensive line is my biggest concern and the main reason why I’m not sure Maryland is ready to actually knock off one of the big boys this season. Quashon Fuller looks to be their top pass-rushing lineman and he only had two sacks and five TFLs in his four-year career.
I think Maryland will be 5-0 and ranked heading into a trip to Columbus, OH. It gets much harder from there, with Illinois, Penn State, and Michigan still to go (though all of them at home). The Terrapins could have a big upset in them this year and should be in the thick of the Big Ten East battle heading into November.
5) Michigan State (6-6, 4-5 B1G)
Fans in East Lansing are hoping for a big turnaround in 2023, but I still have some doubts. The loss of Jayden Reed ot the NFL and Keon Coleman to the transfer portal leaves an awfully thin receiver room for new QB Noah Kim. That is, whenever he is named the starter. Although he was Payton Thorne’s biggest competition in the spring game and the assumed starter, he has yet to be named so. Maybe I’m reading too far into it, but that might be a red flag.
Thanks to two additions in the portal the Spartans have a trio at running back in Jalen Berger, Jaren Mangham, and Nathan Carter. But none of them have been terribly productive so far in their career. The offensive line should improve after a disastrous, injury-riddled 2022. But I’m not sure how much this offense as a hole will improve.
The Spartans can at least lean on an incredibly strong defensive front. Led by guys like Cal Haladay, Jacoby Windom, and Simeon Barrow, Michigan State should be a force to be reckoned with up front.
But the Spartan pass defense is still the biggest question mark of this team. They have finished in the bottom two of the Big Ten in each of the past two years in pass yards allowed, pass touchdowns allowed, opponent completion percentage, and interceptions. Pending a miraculous turnaround, the secondary won’t allow this defense to be as good as it needs to be to make up for a lackluster offense.
6) Rutgers (5-7, 2-7 B1G)
Greg Schiano is doing so many things right in his second rebuild of Rutgers. Led by Aaron Lewis, Deion Jennings, and Max Melton, the Scarlet Knights should have a formidable defense.
Running back Samuel Brown had an impressive start to his freshman season before going down with injury and should help boost their run game alongside Kyle Monangai. But question marks still swirl around this offensive line and their quarterback.
Hollin Pierce and Curtis Dunlap are potential NFL players on the offensive line and should help this unit improve. But there is a severe lack of depth and experience behind them. Gavin Wimsatt finally earned the starting QB position and gets the benefit of a full fall of 1st-team reps. His athleticism is exciting, but he’s completed under 45% of passes on his career. He’ll need to make this pass attack at least semi-competent if Rutgers wants to return to a bowl game.
I feel like Rutgers is heading down the right path, but I just can’t see this offense putting up enough points against so many great Big Ten defenses.
7) Indiana (4-8, 2-7 B1G)
Indiana is probably the hardest team to gauge due to the arrival of so many new faces via the transfer portal. QB is a showdown between Taevyn Jackson & Brendan Sorsby – both have showed promise so far and should elevate the passing game from last year.
WR Camp Camper is healthy and ready for an All-Big Ten caliber season. He will be joined by new arrivals Dequece Carter and EJ Williams – both of whom should make a big impact on this offense. Running back Jailyn Lucas is one of the most exciting athletes in the entire conference and forms a good running back duo with Josh Henderson.
The Hoosiers have a couple big-time playmakers in the defensive front with Andre Carter and Aaron Casey and get a ton of new additions in support. But a secondary that struggled mightily last year looks razor thin.
Indiana is more capable of pulling off an upset in 2023 than they have been in each of the past two. But I ultimately think they are overmatched on both sides of the line of scrimmage by every team in the Big Ten not named Northwestern (a team they don’t get the benefit of playing).
Big Ten West
1) Iowa (9-3, 6-3 B1G)
The battle for the Big Ten West will be fascinating this season, as the division is much improved from last season. But I’m going with Iowa as the champion because they have the highest floor of any team.
Iowa’s offense was the laughing stock of college football last year, but they return virtually every starter and have a massive upgrade at QB. The only question mark on the defensive side of the ball is the linebacker core, but they added Nick Jackson who was the ACC’s leading tackler in each of the past three seasons at Virginia.
They get a tough break having to travel to Madison to face Wisconsin in a game that may end up deciding this division race. But I think their experience will catapult them to wins when they need it most.
2) Wisconsin (9-3, 6-3 B1G)
This is a tough Wisconsin team to gauge. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them win 10 or 11 games and potentially sneak into the CFP with an upset in the Big Ten Championship.
But I am a little concerned about the fundamental cultural changes Fickell and his staff are making on the offensive side of the ball. Transitioning from a ball control, ground & pound offense to an up-tempo, pass-happy scheme might take more than a year to successfully implement. QB Tanner Mordecai struggled mightily in the spring and I think he may be getting a bit too much hype heading into 2023.
Wisconsin’s defense will return to a top five unit in the conference this season. If the passing game follows suit, this will be a tremendously difficult team to beat. But I’m skeptical about how quickly everything will click on the offensive side of the ball – especially against an elite defense like Iowa.
3) Illinois (7-5, 4-5 B1G)
Illinois’ defensive front will be amongst the nation’s best in 2023. But the unfathomable amount of talent the Illini lost in the secondary means their offense will need to improve in order to match or exceed last year’s 8-win total.
Illinois returns a load of talent at receiver, should have improved offensive line play, and there is hope that Ole Miss transfer QB Luke Altmyer can elevate the pass attack. But I’m concerned about their ability to replace RB Chase Brown – he was the heart and soul of this team in 2022.
Illinois should be in every game they play this season. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if they end up winning the division. I just don’t think they’ll be able to score consistently enough to take the Big Ten West crown.
4) Minnesota (6-6, 4-5 B1G)
The Gophers have some of the most talented skill position players in the entire Big Ten with the return of Brevyn Spann-Ford, Chris Autman Bell, Daniel Jackson, and the addition of transfers Sean Tyler, Corey Crooms, and Elijah Spencer. But new QB Athan Kaliakmanis still has a ton to prove – I have some reservations about how he can lead this offense.
Minnesota was top four in the conference in points and yards allowed last year – they simply won’t be able to replicate that production with significant losses across the board. Not to mention they have one of the toughest schedules in all of college football, playing at UNC in the non-conference and drawing Ohio State, Michigan, and Michigan State out of the East.
If Minnesota couldn’t win one of college fotball’s worst divisions last year with a 6th-year QB, one of the best RBs in school history, and a top-10 defense nationally, I have a hard time seeing them competing in a much improved division in 2023. But even in a down year, a bowl appearance seems like a shoe-in for PJ Fleck and the Gophers.
5) Purdue (6-6, 3-6 B1G)
Purdue has plenty of reason for optimism in the future. Hudson Card is one of the most exciting young QBs in the Big Ten and is paired in the backfield with the electric Devon Mockobee at running back. New head coach Ryan Walters is sure to shape this defense into an elite unit soon and he is maintaining Purdue’s air-raid style with the help of OC Graham Harrell. But I think they are a year or two away from pushing for a Big Ten title appearance.
With the loss of WR Jahmal Edrine for the season due to injury, the situation for an already thin receiver room is now dire. Despite a strong interior offensive line, major question marks at the two tackle position make me have some doubt in the offense’s ability to put up a lot of points. Despite some of my concerns, I believe in Hudson Card will play at an All-Big Ten caliber to keep the passing offense’s head above water. The Boiler’s run game should also be more effective than last year.
Purdue has some playmakers on defense highlighted by Cam Allen & Kydran Jenkins, but they appear to lack the size required on the defensive line to operate their new 3-4 scheme. Nonetheless, I trust what Ryan Walters is building too much to think they miss out on a bowl game.
6) Nebraska (5-7, 2-7 B1G)
The Cornhuskers have a lot to fix in 2023 and not a lot of time to do so with road trips to Minnesota and Colorado to start the season. I firmly believe Matt Rhule will have Nebraska as bona fide Big Ten contenders within the next five years – probably even sooner. I also think Jeff Sims is the perfect QB to manage this transition period as Rhule fills Nebraska’s roster with his players.
But I think Nebraska is still too thin along the line of scrimmage to contend in the Big Ten this season. Their offensive line was atrocious last year and they are hoping a lot of those same guys take big strides in their development this season. On the defensive line, Nebraska will likely have to lean on the performance of several true & redshirt freshmen. Until these two units improve, I have a hard time seeing Nebraska hanging with the best teams in the conference.
Husker fans are just hoping to reach the post season for the first time since 2016. Even though I’m not predicting that to happen, it’s certainly in the cards for 2023. Nonetheless, I think this year will be a step in the right direction for Rhule’s rebuild.
7) Northwestern (2-10, 0-9 B1G)
Nobody in major college football enters 2023 with more question marks than Northwestern. The addition of Duke transfer QB Ben Bryant offers a source of hope, but it’s hard to envision him finding much success behind the conference’s worst offensive line and collection of skill position players.
Defensively, the Wildcats boast a few talented players like Coco Azema, Rod Heard, and Sean McLaughlin. But I don’t think there’s enough depth here to make this a formidable defense considering how much they’ll likely be on the field.
I hope for nothing but good fortune for interim HC David Braun who has handled this entire situation with grace. But even reaching six wins would be a monumental feat for this team.