The Floor Slap’s Big Ten Betting Guide – Week 1

by Jordan Beckley and Sean Szymczak

Congratulations!!! We made it through the offseason.

Week 0 has come and went and – despite the less than stellar slate – we were reminded of two things. One, how great it is to be spending Saturday watching a game on a couch or a barstool. The second lesson learned is that it’s easy to lose your bets.

90% of both the public money and the shark money was on New Mexico State Moneyline against UMass. Well, the Minutemen won and the Week 0 Hail Mary Parlay went incomplete.

Here on The Floor Slap, we aren’t betting experts. We are two guys who have barely bet at all. We don’t have a calculated algorithm or intensively researched and sourced edges.

We just want a reason to care more about the Toledo Illinois game, and FanDuel can give us one in the form of a spread, a moneyline, an over etc.

So, let us introduce our weekly Big Ten Betting Guide.

The Bones of the Betting Guide

Let’s break down what’s covered in the guide.

First, Sean (our football expert) and Jordan (our basketball expert) will each pick either the Over/Under or Against the Spread of every game in the Big Ten that week.

We are going to keep track of the results and post the leaderboard each week. It will be a fun way to follow all 14 Big Ten teams. The picks will also be an experiment. Does being as informed as Sean is about all these teams make you a better bettor? Or does it bias you too much, and you are better off being more of a layman like Jordan.

We are positive this experiment will prove that Vegas always wins. Professional bettors aim to get somewhere between 55-60% of their bets correct. It will be fascinating and possibly depressing to see what percentage we get right by the end of the season.

You always remember the bets you hit. You don’t usually remember all the ones you missed along the way. This guide (along with our account balance) will remind us how many we get wrong.

So just a disclaimer, this isn’t necessarily a betting advice column as much as it is an opportunity for you at home to follow along. Watch our picks fail spectacularly as a bystander, or join in on our joy if any of our picks/arguments carry enough weight for you to hop on the over in the Maryland game too.

Beyond the Big Ten, Sean and Jordan are each going to pick a couple out of conference game they are excited to watch that week and a bet to make it more exciting.

This is pretty loose. We might pick a prop or a 1st quarter bet or whatever we really want. We just want to highlight fun out of conference games, not necessarily nail the spread. These games are ones that you are probably going to watch no matter what. We are just adding some investment to the game.

Next, we are going to highlight some random prop bets for the week. Prop bets are fun. We are going to be searching for fun props each week. It might be one big one or five random ones. It will all depend on the week.

Props are released later in the week so make sure to follow us @thefloorslap on Twitter/X to see them. Once we do pick our spots, we will update the article before the Saturday noon games with the props we threw cash at.

Finally, we will end with our Hail Mary Parlays of the Week. Betting individual games is fun, but nothing gets you as jacked up and nervous like a parlay.

Parlays are inherently stupid. If each bet is a coinflip, a four leg parlay has a 6.25% chance of hitting. Yet, there is something about filling out your bet slip and seeing 4 minus odd bets turning into +750 and knowing they’re all going to hit. Of course they’re all going to hit! On Saturday mornings all of your bets are perfect.

Anyways, that’s what we will be doing each week on our Big Ten Betting Guide… let’s get into Week 1!

Picking Every Big Ten Game – Week 1 Slate

See the Chart at the bottom for Sean and Jordan’s picks for each game. First we are going to write out each game, with the spread, the over/under, and some thoughts on each game.

All lines via FanDuel (pls sponsor us!) and public betting info is from ActionNetwork or SportsBettingDime.

Nebraska at Minnesota (-7) O/U: 42.5

• New starting QBs for each team and Matt Rhule’s debut for Nebraska
• Matt Rhule has lost his debut game at Temple, Baylor and at Carolina in the NFL. Rhule went 2-10 and 1-11 in year one at Temple and Baylor.
• All the new aspects of this team make the under seem tasty. The Under has moved from 47.5 to 42.5, so there’s been action on it. However, Minnesota would’ve hit the over on 47.5 three of the past four Week 1 games.
• Public money is all about Nebraska right now… but Minnesota being -295 favorites might be swaying the bets.

Central Michigan at Michigan State (-14.5) O/U: 45.5

• The action has been on the under as it has gone down from 49.5 to 45.5
• New QB Noah Kim will make his debut for the Spartans
• Here is MSU’s nonconference games point totals last season: 48, 52 and 67
• Here is CSU’s nonconference games point totals last season: 102 (OK St.), 62 (South Bama), 41 (Bucknell), 47 (Penn State)

Fresno State at Purdue (-4.5) O/U: 47.5

• Debut for head coach Ryan Walters at Purdue, who led Illinois to have one of the best Defenses in the country last season.
• Illinois would have hit the over on 48.5 one time last season. Different QB, RB and OC on Purdue but still… The under has moved from 50.5 to 47.5 so just saying.
• Fresno State went 10-4 last year with a Bowl win over Washington State and a Mountain West Championship but will have a new starting QB
• This one seems to be a pick’em but the public favors Purdue slightly

East Carolina at Michigan (-35.5) O/U: 51.5

• Michigan scored 51, 56 and 59 in their competitive nonconference slate of Colorado State, Hawaii, and UConn last year.
• The Over is a testament to whether or not you think Michigan will score 52 by themselves.
• With Blake Corum, Donovan Edwards, and JJ McCarthy as mouths to feed and boost their stats… we like the over.
• The action has been on Michigan to cover as well with that going from 34.5 to 35.5
• Michigan won the nonconference games by 44, 46, and 59 last year. They should be better and East Carolina isn’t better.
• A Michigan cover and the over go hand in hand here.

Utah State at Iowa (-24.5) O/U: 44.5

• We just don’t think Iowa will give up any points in this game. The Hawkeyes gave up 13 points in their three nonconference games last year.
• Brian Ferentz has to get 25 ppg to keep his job this season.
• Iowa should run up the score and give up nothing. Iowa to cover.

Buffalo at Wisconsin (-27.5) O/U: 53.5

• This line moved from -23 at open to -27.5 for Wisconsin. There is a lot of optimism for Luke Fickell and the Badgers.
• This will be week 1 of Phil Longo, Tanner Mordecai and the Air raid offense.
• Their could be an edge here if you think Wisconsin offense is going to take off and Vegas doesn’t know it yet
• Current head coach Maurice Linguist has played Nebraska and Maryland the past two seasons and the point totals were 31 and 41.

Ohio State (-29.5) at Indiana O/U: 59.5

• The Buckeyes don’t know who will start at QB and have gone from 27.5 point favorites to 29.5 favorites.
• Here are the scores of IU vs OSU since Tom Allen took over

• IU also doesn’t have a ton of confidence in their starting QB
• Don’t let the points scare you here.

West Virginia at Penn State (-20.5) O/U: 50.5

• West Virginia will be starting a new QB in Garrett Greene who um didn’t look great as a backup last year.
• Penn State will be starting Drew Allar and be pinning all of their hopes on him being awesome.
• They won’t need him to be awesome to cover a three touchdown spread
• The Under has had action going down from 52.5 to 50.5 last week.

Toledo at Illinois (-9.5) O/U: 45.5

• People like the under with it going from 49.5 last week to 45.5 now
• New QB in Champaign and one of the best defensive fronts in the conference make it tempting
• DeQuan Finn is a talented QB and the Rockets can score
• This is a tight pick in either direction

Northwestern at Rutgers (-6.5) O/U: 39.5

• Northwestern is probably the worst team in the Big Ten
• Rutgers isn’t too far in front of them.
• Are the Scarlet Knights a touchdown better than the Wildcats? Yeah. Right?
• I don’t know for sure how much Rutgers should win but the under is likely safe unless Northwestern’s defense is just putrid.

Check out all our Picks for Week 1 in the Big Ten:

THERE ARE NO ODDS FOR MARYLAND VS TOWSON*** We didn’t forget about you Terp fans.

Out of Conference Games to Watch:

Jordan: South Carolina ML (+116) vs UNC // LSU (-2.5) vs Florida State

Nothing beats summer optimism. There’s plenty of it in Baton Rouge and Tallahassee. The Seminoles ended the season hot and have carried that momentum in the offseason. LSU fans are eagerly awaiting Year 2 of Brian Kelly. The two QBs in this game are currently the 2nd and 3rd favorites for the Heisman with Jayden Daniels at +1000 and Jordan Travis at +1200. The fans of these programs enter week 1 with CFP aspirations and maybe secretly even higher hopes of a Title. One fanbase is guaranteed to be deeply disappointed. I think it will be the Noles fans wondering why they bought all the hype. LSU to cover -2.5 at -114.

I can’t quit the Spencer Rattler Story. The embattled quarterback has a huge opportunity in Week 1 against no. 2 overall prospect Drake Maye and North Carolina. It is a Carolina Border War at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte. I like Rattler and the Cocks over Maye and the Tarheels in a statement game. USC ML is +116.

Sean: Clemson (-12.5) vs Duke // Florida (+6.5) vs Utah

Clemson has been put on upset watch by some, but I have a hard time seeing why. Duke could have a sneaky good offense this year led by QB Riley Leonard but they’ll be smothered by one of the best defenses in college football. The Blue Devil’s defense went from atrocious to semi-respectable last year but should have a hard time slowing down a renewed offense with OC Garrett Riley. Of Duke’s three ACC losses, the only opponent in common with Clemson was UNC. Clemson beat them by 29 on the road while Duke lost by 3 at home. Clemson is better than last year. Duke should be about the same. Don’t over think it. Clemson covers -12.5 easily.

There are two factors that make me think the Florida vs Utah game will be a tight one just like last year. First, Utah’s situation at QB. Cam Rising returns but he tore his ACL only nine months ago. He’s listed as the starter, but will he really play? If he will, is he really the same player? It doesn’t help that their primary backup Brandon Rose suffered a season-ending injury earlier this month. Second, weather looks like it might be a factor Thursday night. And weather is the great equalizer. Utah wins, but Florida keeps it close and covers +6.5.

Jordan’s Hail Mary Parlay – Week 1

I am keeping it simple this week. I feel pretty strongly about Iowa and Michigan covering. I actually think Michigan hits the over by themselves. Iowa shouldn’t give up any points and scoring over 45 would be quite the jump for the 123rd offense out of 131 from last season.

Four legs:

• Michigan to cover 35.5 points
• Michigan ECU over 51.5 points
• Iowa to cover 25.5 points
• Iowa Utah State under 45 points

Payout: + 940 on FanDuel

Sean’s Hail Mary Parlay – Week 1

I call this one “teams I think will win.” UCLA finished 3-4 in the back half of last season and has to replace a ton of starters on both sides of the ball, most notably DTR. Coastal Carolina returns their leader Grayson McCall and should get out to a faster start than the Bruins.

In the two battles highlighted by the quarterback matchups (Jayden Daniels vs Jordan Travis & Drake Maye vs Spencer Rattler), I’ll take the teams with the better overall rosters.

I added Minnesota as the 4th leg to boost the odds above +3000. The line is hovering around 10 right now and that’s a little much for my liking. But I am confident in the Gophers getting the win at home. After all, Matt Rhule has not been known for fast starts at his previous two rebuilds.

• Coastal Carolina ML (+530) vs UCLA
• South Carolina ML (+110) vs UNC
• LSU ML (-130) vs Florida State
• Minnesota ML (-295) vs Nebraska

Payout: +3034 on FanDuel

Props of the week

Follow @TheFloorSlap to see our prop picks closer to kickoff.

Big Ten Player Props for Saturday’s Slate:

• Donovan Edwards (Michigan) OVER 72.5 rush yards
• Braelon Allen (Wisconsin) OVER 88.5 rush yards
• Devin Mockobee (Purdue) OVER 61.5 rush yards
• Drew Allar (Penn State) OVER 1.5 pass TDs

Props for Nebraska at Minnesota

• Athan Kaliakmanis pass yards over 177.5
• Jeff Sims over 37.5 rush yards
• Jeff Sims over .5 passing touchdown

Sean’s 5 Locks

Listen to The Floor Slap’s weekly football podcast to hear Sean’s 5 Locks for every week of the college football season (releases every Wednesday).

Rivalry Weekend Recap – Big Ten Blitz

Breaking down what went wrong with Ohio State against Michigan and why Ryan Day needs to be fired NOW. And what this win means for Michigan's program moving forwardPLUS:Minnesota dominates the border battle, program remains steady under FleckFickell has a mess on his hands at WisconsinWas 2024 a success for Nebraska?Iowa is who we thought they wereRyan Walters firedAND breaking down the CFP field and the debate for the 12th spot

1. Rivalry Weekend Recap 46:21
2. Week 11 Reaction 46:40
3. CFP Rankings Reaction, Big Ten News, Heisman Update 32:05
4. Week 10 Big Ten Recap 37:15
5. College Football Witching Hour 36:31

We will catch up with you next Tuesday to tally our wins (and losses). No matter what we made it to week one! We have months of football ahead of us. Enjoy the first official Saturday of the fall fellas!

Read More on The Floor Slap:

• College Basketball Super Sixteen: December Edition
• Midweek Madness: Feast Week Leftovers
• Big Ten Betting Guide: Rivalry Week
• Big Ten Betting Guide: Week 13
• Big Ten Football Preview: Week 13