by Sean Szymczak
Conference Championships
Big Ten Championship: Penn State (11-1) vs Iowa (9-3)
I’m picking Penn State to come out of the Big Ten East for two main reasons. I can’t trust Ohio State to beat Michigan this year, and I don’t like that Michigan’s three hardest games of the year are stacked at the tail end of their schedule. I also don’t love that Michigan has to travel to Happy Valley this year. Penn State’s roster appears to be every bit as complete as Ohio State and Michigan’s. Regardless of what happens, the Big Ten East race will be must-see TV in 2023.
Iowa has a chance to have a really special season, assuming Cade McNamara’s leg injury doesn’t end up being serious and spilling into the season. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Hawkeyes are 11-1 and vying for a CFP spot in this spot. But the Big Ten West is deeper than last year. Wisconsin and Illinois are fully capable of winning the West and having special seasons themselves.
Ultimately, I think Penn State will be playing it’s best football at the end of the season. They could potentially boast a top-ten offense and defense nationally. Iowa just won’t be able to score enough and the Nittany Lions will snag their first ever CFP appearance.
Champion: Penn State
SEC Championship: Georgia (12-0) vs Alabama (11-1)
Apart from a November trip to Knoxville, Georgia should have little to no trouble finishing the regular season 12-0. Their QB situation is to be determined, but their defense might be better this year.
Call it a hunch, but I hate the idea of a Nick Saban team flying under the radar. People think the dynasty is over, but I think the Tide will be better in 2023. They figure to be less QB-centric and rely more on a punishing run game – something that could be devastating with a freak athlete QB like Jalen Milroe. Whether it’ll be Texas, Texas A&M, Ole Miss, Tennessee, or LSU, I think Alabama drops a game during the regular season. But I’d be surprised if they fail to reach the SEC Championship again.
Alabama will be in a must-win situation to make the CFP when they reach the SEC Championship. Georgia, meanwhile, will know they are practically in no matter what. Saban will have had this matchup circled for almost two years at that point, and I think Alabama emerges victorious to reclaim the SEC and a spot in the playoff.
Champion: Alabama
ACC Championship: Clemson (11-1) vs Florida State (9-3)
Clemson will be really good this year. I think new OC Garrett Riley from TCU will make all the difference in the world for this offense. They get Florida State, Notre Dame, and UNC at home with their only true road test being at South Carolina to end the season. A 12-0 season is more than possible.
I’m a little lower on Florida State than most. Their win streak to end last season was over unimpressive opponents and it was also after they were virtually eliminated from ACC contention. I think the turnover they’ve experienced at offensive line might make for a slow start to the season – something they can’t really afford with matchups against LSU and Clemson in September.
This should be as exciting of a matchup as any over championship weekend. I wouldn’t be surprised at all in the Seminoles manage the upset and throw a massive wrench into the CFP picture. But I’ll lean towards the team and coach that have won in these situations more recently.
Champion: Clemson
Pac-12 Championship: USC (10-2) vs Washington (10-2)
The Pac-12 is undoubtedly the third best conference in the country behind the SEC and Big Ten in 2023. USC, Utah, Oregon, Washington, and Oregon State are all legitimate contenders to win the conference. Unfortunately, the conference is likely to cannibalize themselves once again.
USC just doesn’t have the defense to be a true national championship contender this year. I think they will have a lot of trouble against Notre Dame and Utah. Nonetheless, Caleb Williams should be good enough to secure their spot in the Pac-12 Championship. If Michael Penix Jr can stay healthy, Washington could make a real push to make their second ever CFP appearance. But at the end of the day, I don’t think they have the defense to keep up with the nation’s best offenses.
I’m picking USC to win the Pac-12 mainly because of Caleb Williams. But I have a hard time seeing any team emerge from this conference with fewer than two losses.
Champion: USC
Big 12 Championship: Texas (10-2) vs Oklahoma (9-3)
I don’t think the Big 12 will be quite as deep this year as it was in 2022. Texas has one of the most talented rosters in the country. Anything below a 10-win season would be a disappointment (assuming they don’t woefully mismanage their QB situation).
Oklahoma is in for a big turnaround in Brent Venables’ second season. The Sooners were a much more competitive team when Dillon Gabriel was healthy. They were also 0-4 in one-score games – something that doesn’t usually happen in back-to-back years. Another year under Venables’ season and a strong transfer class should carry Oklahoma back to the top of the Big 12.
I think Texas will knock off Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry. But rematches usually favor the loser and I just have a bad feeling about picking Texas to win their first Big 12 Championship since 2009. They gotta be letdown again, right?
Champion: Oklahoma
College Football Playoff
This is the season to have a 12-team playoff. It feels like in every season since 2015, here have been one or two teams that are head-and-shoulders above the rest of the country. I don’t get that sentiment this year. I think any of the six teams pictured above could lose to a team like Washington, Notre Dame, or Florida State.
I think Ohio State, Michigan, and Penn State are all top five teams this year – I have been vocal about that all summer. Unfortunately, the Big Ten doesn’t get the benefit of the doubt like the SEC does. I think the three schools will all beat each other, leaving two on the outs.
I ultimately think Nick Saban will turn back the clock and field an Alabama team reminiscent of 2008-12 Alabama. They will rely on a punishing defense, devastating run game, and a positive turnover margin. In a season where there isn’t an obvious best team, I think that is what will win a national championship. Unlike several of the past few years, you won’t need to score 50 points to win it all this year.