by Jordan Beckley and Sean Szymczak
WE ARE SO BACK!!!!!
I mean how great is it to have Football on again? Even before the Noon games finished we had awesome games like Shedeur Sanders, Travis Hunter and Colorado escaping with a win at TCU while Purdue and Hudson Card were barely outgunned in West Lafayette by Mikey Keene and Fresno State.
The later games saw the dawning of the Drew Allar era in Happy Valley in a win over West Virginia, Tanner Mordecai taking control in Madison, a disappointing debut for Kyle McCord and Ohio State, and many more Big Ten moments.
Sean will breakdown all the week 1 action on our podcast, but how did our picks do in Week 1?
We mentioned last week that professional bettors aim to be just above .500 to be profitable. Jordan toed that line, finishing 5-5 in his Big Ten picks. Sean blew that out of the water going 8-2.
Sean also went 4 for 5 on his locks. Our prop picks went 5-2 and we were a Devin Mockobee yard away from going 6-1. Together we went 3 for 4 on the games that we both had the same pick – only missing on Ohio State covering.
It was a profitable weekend if you followed the Floor Slap’s guide. Let’s make it two weeks in a row!
Picking Every Big Ten Game – Week 2
This is the busiest week of the Big Ten Season. All 14 teams are in action. No team plays another Big Ten team so there are 14 games to watch, but there are only lines for 10 of them. Indiana, Ohio State, Penn State, and Michigan State don’t have lines on any major book.
Illinois (+3) at Kansas O/U: 56.5
- Kansas won 48-17 against Missouri State in Week 1
- Jalon Daniels didn’t start but is expected to against Illinois
- The Jayhawks averaged 37 ppg in 9 games with Jalon Daniels
- Kansas averaged 32.63 against P5 opponents
- Illinois just gave up 28 to Toledo
- Jalon Daniels was 3-4 against P5 teams last season
- Illinois went 3-1 against nonconference opponents last year
- Lance Leipold vs Bret Bielema is a matchup I don’t have a strong conviction for. I’ll stick to the points.
Nebraska(+2.5) at Colorado O/U: 59.5
- Colorado just lit up TCU for 45 points and 565 yards from scrimmage (5
- Shedeur Sanders threw the ball 47 times for 500+ yards. Athan Kaliakmanis threw 44 times and Nebraska gave up 196 passing yards in week 1.
- TCU’s defense could be awful and inflated Colorado’s offense, but the Buffs looked strong in week 1
- Nebraska’s defense would’ve given up even less points if it weren’t for Jeff Sims’ turnovers.
- The O/U might be a stayaway unless you feel confident in Nebraska being able to score this week
- At 2.5 it is basically a pick’em. I see more ways that it goes in favor of Colorado than it does for Big Red.
Purdue (+3) at Virginia Tech O/U: 49.5
- VT beat Old Dominion 36-17 in week 1. Grant Wells had a more confident start to his second season at Blacksburg with 4 total TDs.
- Purdue and Fresno State put up some points in week one. Will that repeat? Or will Ryan Walters have more tape to improve the scheme?
- VT was bad last year in Brent Pry’s first season, but still only gave up 24 points per game
- If you take two TD off Fresno’s total (VT having a bad offense) and convert two of Purdue’s to FGs (VTs defense being better) that would be 52 points.
- The O/U is a stay away for me. I need more data on Purdue under Ryan Walters.
- I think Fresno State is flat out a better team than the Hokies. Lane Stadium is a hard place to play but it’s not as hard at noon.
- Purdue to cover.
UNLV (+36.5) at Michigan O/U: 57.5
- Will I learn from Week 1’s burn of Michigan not covering or hitting the over?
- Michigan covering and the over is the fun pick.
- Jim Harbaugh is still suspended, UNLV barely could pass against Bryant, and I don’t think they’ll run like they did against a nonmajor school against the Wolverine D.
- Michigan could cover and not hit 40 points total in this game. The over seems high.
Iowa (-3.5) at Iowa State O/U: 36.5
- By far the best game of the week and also the toughest game to pick.
- Iowa State won 30-9 against Northern Iowa in Week 1.
- The total line seems like a joke but Iowa State ran 45 offensive plays against UNI… There could be less than 10 total possessions in this game who knows?!
- Iowa would’ve hit the over 36.5 in their 24-14 win against Utah State.
- The fun pick is the under. If you want to make an ugly game fun do that.
- The better pick is Iowa to cover. Matt Campbell is a great head coach who until last year couldn’t beat Iowa.
- Campbell is 1-5 in 6 games against Iowa.
- Three of those five Iowa wins would cover the 3.5 spread.
- I think Iowa is just a better team. Whether the final is 9-2 or 22-16, I think Iowa wins it.
UTEP (+1.5) at Northwestern O/U: 38.5
- UTEP has already played two games, losing to Jacksonville State 14-17 and to Incarnate Word 28-14
- UTEP has thrown for 302 yards against those opponents in two games…
- The Miners have gained a total of 787 yards from scrimmage
- Northwestern went 47 minutes and 41 seconds before scoring against Rutgers
- Northwestern had 201 yards from scrimmage
- I have no idea how bad or good either of these teams are but I know neither offense is awesome
- 38.5 could be a lot of points for this matchup
Wisconsin (-6.5) at Washington State O/U: 58.5
- I’m not going to overexplain this one
- I think Luke Fickell, Tanner Mordecai, Braelon Allen, Chez Mellusi, and Wisconsin are going to be awesome this year.
- I don’t think Washington State will be awesome.
- Last year the Cougs won every game they should and lost everyone that they should have. Save maybe the 17-14 win in Madison in week 2.
- That was a very different Badger team. The line already moved from -4.5 to -6.5. Get Wisconsin before the line is above a touchdown.
Charlotte (+24.5) at Maryland O/U: 50.5
- Charlotte won week 1 against SC State 24-3. It’s a new QB in Jalon Jones and a new head coach in Biff Poggi
- Jones had 125 yards on 19 attempts with 1 TD and 2 INT. The 49ers ran for 220 yards.
- Maryland won 38-6 against Towson and pulled Taulia Tagovailoa in the 3rd quarter once they went up 35-3
- Maryland has experience and trust in their QB and offense. Mike Locksley doesn’t want Taulia to get hurt so they might not run up the score.
- The under looks appetizing if the game follows the same script. The cover looks questionable but it depends on what you think of Charlotte’s scoring ability.
Eastern Michigan (+20.5) at Minnesota O/U: 47.5
- There are two ways to look at these lines.
- Minnesota gave up 10 points to Nebraska week 1, but that might’ve been a little lucky. Still, even if they gave up 20 points, can you see the Gopher offense putting up 28?
- Is EMU’s offense that put up 33 points against Howard better than Nebraska?
- This line of thinking makes me think the Under.
- The other line is can Minnesota win a game by three touchdowns? Kaliakmanis has won one game by more than a touchdown in 6 chances.
- Minnesota hit over 47.5 only three times last year. I like the under slightly more than the EMU cover.
Temple (+9.5) at Rutgers O/U: 45.5
- This line was added late and their has already been action pushing the Total points lower
- Do I need to bore you with why Rutgers and Temple might not have 20 points each?
- Side note Temple Moneyline at +310 is very interesting if you are of the opinion that the Rutgers win over Northwestern might not be as impressive as some people think.
Check out all our picks for Week 2
| Game | Spread | O/U | Jordan’s Pick | Sean’s Pick |
| Illinois vs Kansas | KU -3.5 | 56.5 | O56.5 | ILL +3.5 |
| Indiana St vs Indiana | IND -31.5 | 44.5 | U44.5 | U44.5 |
| Nebraska vs Colorado | COLO -2.5 | 58.5 | COLO -2.5 | U58.5** |
| Purdue vs Virginia Tech | VT -3 | 48.5 | PURD +3 | O48.5** |
| Youngstown St vs Ohio St | OSU -41.5 | 56.5 | OSU -41.5 | U56.5 |
| UNLV vs Michigan | MICH -37.5 | 57.5 | U57.5 | U57.5 |
| Iowa vs Iowa State | IOWA -3.5 | 36.5 | IOWA -3.5 | U36.5** |
| UTEP vs Northwestern | UTEP -1.5 | 39.5 | U39.5 | NW +1.5 |
| Wisconsin vs Washington St | WISC -6.5 | 58.5 | WISC -6.5 | WSU +6.5** |
| Charlotte vs Maryland | MD -24.5 | 51.5 | MD -24.5 | U51.5 |
| Eastern Michigan vs Minnesota | MINN -20.5 | 48.5 | U48.5 | U48.5 |
| Temple vs Rutgers | RUTG -9 | 45.5 | U45.5 | U45.5** |
** indicates Sean’s 5 Locks, featured weekly on The Floor Slap podcast
Season Records to date
Jordan: 5-5
Sean: 8-2
Consensus Picks: 3-1
Sean’s 5 Locks: 4-1
Out of Conference Games to Watch
Jordan: Texas Tech at Oregon (-6.5) O/U: 66.5 // Ole Miss (-7.5) at Tulane O/U: 63.5
Ole Miss and Tulane is such a fun game that will almost certainly mean nothing by the end of the CFB season. At 63.5 it is the one of the highest over/unders (USC Stanford at 68.5 is #1). Ole Miss might’ve earned it running up the score 73-7 against Mercer week 1. The Over is a fun bet to place if you don’t care about either team and want to cheer on an offensive barrage. I like Ole Miss to win by a couple Touchdowns.
Speaking of over/unders, Oregon and Texas Tech have a total of 66.5 on FanDuel. The Ducks and the Red Raiders had games of 88 and 68 points respectively last week. I would chill with the over as TTU needed double OT to reach that number and Oregon was playing Portland State. I know I am falling victim to the hype train and a terrible week 1 opponent, but I like Oregon to win in Lubbock by more than one TD. Our out of conference picks are meant to highlight good games to watch. This should be one. I would keep it on a second screen if I were you.
Sean: Texas vs Alabama (-7) O/U: 53.5 // Notre Dame (-7.5) vs NC State O/U: 50.5
I simply refuse to believe Texas is a legitimate threat until they prove to me otherwise. They almost pulled off the upset last year, but that was at home. I also think Alabama being less QB-centric makes them a more dangerous team. Not only that, but Bama’s defense matches up well against the now Bijan-less Longhorns. Kool-Aid McKinstry and Malachi Moore lead a very talented secondary that should give Quinn Ewers more trouble than he had last year before he went down with injury. Everyone is hoping so badly that the Saban dynasty is over that they are ignoring the facts. Ball security, Millroe’s legs, and a suffocating Bama defense will be the keys to a statement win. Alabama wins by two or three possessions, covers -7 at home.
I’m a firm believer in this Notre Dame team. They’ve been thoroughly dominant on both sides of the ball and already have two games under their belt. They haven’t experience crowd noise like they will on Saturday, but Sam Hartman has familiarity with this team and environment. NC State doesn’t have the offensive firepower to hang with Sam Hartman and a punishing run game. And as a fun little tidbit, Notre Dame has won 28 straight regular season games against the ACC. The Wolfpack keep it close, but Notre Dame pulls away at the end to cover -7.5.
Jordan’s Hail Mary Parlay -Week 2
- Auburn -6.5 (-115) at Cal
- Oklahoma State ML (-152) at Arizona State
- Texas ML (+220) at Alabama
FanDuel odds: +892
This Parlay is simple. I believe that Oklahoma State will bounce back and that Mike Gundy will win in Tempe. I think Hugh Freeze and Auburn will steam roll Cal. The final pick of this parlay is just what boosts the odds.
I get it. It’s asking a lot of Quinn Ewers and Texas to win in Birmingham and yeah the Crimson Tide looked awesome week 1. It’s not that I fully believe in Texas… it’s that they are +225 and they boost this parlay to winning nearly $9 for every $1. I definitely will be rooting for Texas to win anyways and make it another “rebuilding year” for Nick Saban. So, might as well fire up this parlay and maybe win some money too.
The Hail Mary Parlay is meant to be “low stake big payout”. This one seems perfect. Make it your smallest bet of the weekend and hope it pays out.
Sean’s Hail Mary Parlay – Week 2
- Cincinnati ML (+220) vs Pitt
- Cal ML (+168) vs Auburn
- Northwestern ML (+100) vs UTEP
FanDuel odds: +1530
The River City Rivalry is renewed when Cincy travels to Pittsburgh. Neither faced much of a challenge in week 1, but QB Emory Jones looks like one of the splash lands of the 2023 portal cycle for Cincinnati. With Jones, RB Corey Kiner, and WR Xavier Henderson, the Bearcat offense will be tough to stop. I’m not sure Pitt QB Phil Jurkovec will be able to keep up. The Cincy ML being up over +200 is way too good of value to pass up.
Taking Cal over Auburn is purely about having faith in the better conference. Based on what we saw in week 1, taking an SEC on the road could get messy. Payton Thorne isn’t a great QB and he has to keep up with a Cal offense that put up nearly 700 yards of offense against North Texas. The game also kicks off at 10:30pm Auburn-time. I’d expect Auburn to be closer to a field goal favorite, making Cal ML extra valuable. And for what it’s worth, the Auburn line has dropped by 1.5 points and Cal’s ML odds have dropped from above +200 to +168. If you read this article earlier in the week, you would’ve gotten even better value. And maybe this trend means I’m onto something?
For my final leg, I can’t fathom that Northwestern is a home underdog against UTEP. Surely they can’t be this bad right? At even odds, it’s worth the risk.
Prop Picks – Week 2
- Chez Mellusi any time TD scorer (+125)
- Kaleb Johnson UNDER 66.5 rush yards (-114)
- Devin Mockobee OVER 64.5 rush yards (-114)
Mellusi ran for 157 yards and 2 TDs last week. The competition is stiffer as the Badgers travel to face the Washington State Cougars. But Wisconsin will continue to lean on the run as Tanner Mordecai gets more comfortable in this offense. Braelon Allen had 17 carries last week to Mellusi’s 13. This is Allen’s backfield, but Fickell made it clear in week 1 that he is limiting his usually heavy workload – at least early in the season. Wisconsin has a dominant offensive line that should pave the way for at least two rushing TDs. Based on last week, getting plus odds for Mellusi to get one of those TDs seems like incredible value.
Kaleb Johnson had 63 yards on 19 carries against Utah State last weekend. Iowa State has a strong defense that will make life for Iowa’s offense even tougher than it was last week. Leshon Williams is also still a fairly big part of this offense and will take opportunities away from Johnson. I just have a tough time seeing him have a better day than he did on Saturday.
Last week, Devin Mockobee’s rushing total missed by just two measly yards. Against Old Dominion last week, the Hokies gave up over 200 rush yards at nearly 5 yards per carry. Life should be a little easier for the Boiler run game this week. After last week’s poor performance, you know Ryan Walters will want to emphasize the run early in the game. There should be plenty of opportunities for Mockobee to top 65 rush yards this week.
Sean’s 5 Locks
Sean’s 5 Locks are published with his podcast every Wednesday. Follow wherever you listen to things!