by Sean Szymczak
Four new head coaches arrived in the Big Ten in 2023. As we turn the page on week 7 and gear up for the back half of the college football season, we take a moment to assess how each coach has performed this year, project their future, and outline their biggest road blocks to success.
Matt Rhule, Nebraska
It’s been a tale of two sides of the ball so far for Matt Rhule’s tenure in Nebraska. With the help of Tony White and the 3-3-5 defense, the Husker defense has turned it around faster than anyone anticipated.
Nebraska is 27th nationally in total defense, 22nd in yards per play allowed, and 8th in yards per carry allowed. Although they haven’t been forcing many turnovers this year (they have one of the worst turnover margins in the country at -7), it’s safe to say the Blackshirt defense is returning.
Although the offense is still a work-in-progress, it’s improved significantly since Matt Rhule made the switch the Heinrich Haarberg. The Huskers have averaged 10 more points per game since the switch and have a more respectable turnover margin of -1 in that span.
Matt Rhule putting in a redshirt sophomore at QB in place of a three-year veteran who transferred to Nebraska to start speaks volumes to how Rhule is handling this program. He’s not here to play favorites or favor veterans over young talent. Matt Rhule is here to win games and will play the best players in order to achieve that.
Another I thing I love about Rhule’s impact is he has established and identity for the Nebraska Cornhuskers – something that was woefully absent under Scott Frost. Unless you consider “finding ways to lose” an identity.
The current brand of Nebraska football isn’t a pretty one. Defensively, they are swarming the line of scrimmage, rallying to the football, and trying to limit explosive plays. Offensively, they are hammering the rock and trying to not lose the game by putting their defense in difficult situations.
With games against Northwestern, Purdue, and Michigan State coming up after their bye, the Huskers should be 6-3 heading into a difficult stretch to end the season which includes games against Wisconsin and Iowa. Believe it or not, the Huskers would find themselves in a “control your own destiny” to win the West if they win these next three games.
I’m not sure even the most optimistic Husker fans would have expected to be in the thick of the Big Ten West race entering November. But that very well may come to fruition thanks to the identity Matt Rhule has provided for them.
Recruiting has stepped up as well. Nebraska currently ranks 6th in the Big Ten and 25th nationally in the 2024 class with 26 commitments, including seven 4-star prospects.
If there’s one concern I have for this team moving forward, it’s easily their offense. Although I didn’t love the Marcus Satterfield hire as OC, I thought it matched what Nebraska needed to do in the short-term: control the line of scrimmage and run the ball. They’ve more or less been doing that, rankings 21st nationally in rushing offense and 28th in yards per carry.
But if Nebraska eventually wants to become a Big Ten and CFP contender, it’s no secret that they will have to learn to throw the ball. The Satterfield offense is one that relies on a physical run game and a mobile QB that can set up play action and deep shots down the field. It isn’t necessarily a QB-friendly offense that gives them easy throws. That’s part of the reason South Carolina fans were so infuriated with Satterfeild before that magical stretch to end the 2022 season. And even then, many Gamecock fans were happy to see him go.
So I am concerned about how this pass offense will develop if Marcus Satterfield sticks around as their OC and primary play-caller for the foreseeable future. In order for this passing attack to embody Satterfield’s vision, they need an NFL-caliber QB. Whether that be from the transfer portal or a blue-chip prospect they develop in-house, the Huskers will need a program-changing QB in order to take the next step.
You saw it at Michigan. As great as their defense and offensive line was for so many years, it took the arrival of a 5-star QB prospect to push them over the hump.
Until Nebraska gets that quarterback, it’s hard to see them becoming legitimate conference title contenders. And that’s the goal every Husker fan has for Matt Rhule’s tenure. That being said, everyone understood this was going to be a multi-year rebuild.
At the end of the day, this has been a succesful first season for Matt Rhule so far. They are on track to reach a bowl game for the first time since 2016, their defense has done a complete 180 from where it was under Frost, and Rhule has showed a willingness to play the best players rather than favor veterans.
At the very least, Nebraska should return to being an 8 or 9-win program like they were under Bo Pelini in no time. But in order to reach their ultimate goal, Matt Rhule will have to find a program-defining QB. If he can’t do that, I’m not sure how long Satterfield will be able to stick around as OC. Because without a quarterback with an NFL arm, the Huskers will need someone more capabale of crafting a QB-friendly offense.
Ryan Walters, Purdue
A 2-5 start has some Purdue fans wavering on Ryan Walters. But the Boilermakers have had to endure one of the toughest schedules in all of college football through 6 games. As I outlined a couple weeks ago on The Floor Slap Podcast, Ryan Walters deserves some more patience.
First off, we have to recognize the mass exodus of talent Purdue saw from last year’s Big Ten West Champions, particularly on offense. Their best offensive lineman transferred to Louisville to follow Jeff Brohm and Aidan O’Connell went to the NFL along with their top two receivers in Charlie Jones (Big Ten WR of the Year) and TE Payne Durham. The defense also returned only four starters, mainly from a secondary that was middle-of-the-road last year.
Combine that with a complete overhaul of the coaching staff and you get the disjointed team (both offensively and defensively) that we’ve seen through half of the 2023 seasons. Regardless of who the coach was, this season always looked like a rebuilding one in West Lafayette.
So, where are the signs that Walters has the program heading in the right direction despite the on-field struggles so far in 2023?
First, their defense is showing promise despite being 97th nationally in scoring defense and 93rd in total defense. Walters brought the 3-4/3-3-5 hybrid that was so successful at Illinois to Purdue. There have been some bumps in the road so far, but Purdue is 19th in the country in sacks and has been beginning to force more turnovers. That’s great news for a defense that hinges on big plays. It’ll take some time to fill out this defense with Walters’ kind of players. But LB Kydran Jenkins – who’s having an All-American type season – has another year of eligibility and will be a key veteran to help the new, younger talent. Ryan Walters definitely has the defense heading in the right direction.
Speaking of talent, that’s another thing Walters is exceling at. Purdue’s 2024 class is ranked 8th in the Big Ten and 28th in the country. They already have four 4-star prospects after Brohm brought in six combined over his final three seasons (and a 5th has been crystal-balled to Purdue this past week). Walters also brought in 15 players in the 2023 transfer class and is already getting an impact from guys like CBs Markevious Brown & Marquis Wilson, DL Jeffrey M’Ba, and G Preston Nichols. Ryan Walters is a player’s coach and should continue to attract talent to West Lafayette.
Similarly to Nebraska, my concern for the Walters regime lies in their offense. Graham Harrell was a splash hire because of his history with the air-raid as a coaching descendent of the late Mike Leach. But it’s become evident that Purdue doesn’t have the weapons on the outside to effectively throw the ball 40+ times. Deion Burks is a firecracker, but there just aren’t the players that can go win 50-50 balls consistently. The air-raid attack is an execution-based offense that hinges on the QB letting it rip and allowing guys to go make plays. Purdue doesn’t have those guys yet and Harrell – still a relatively inexperienced play-caller – can’t out-scheme teams.
Because of an inconsistent downfield passing attack, Graham Harrell has struggled to incorporate the run game. Their runs have become predictable and the rotation between Mockobee, Tracy, & Downing has looked disjointed. The offense just hasn’t been able to get into a consistent rhythm yet this season and I put a lot of the blame on Harrell’s play-calling.
When you have a talent deficit like Purdue does right now, you can’t force players into a scheme. You have to tailor your scheme to your team’s strengths. It might be a couple years until the Boilermakers are able to really stock up their skill position players after losing a lot over the past couple seasons. Can Graham Harrell give this offense an identity and keep them afloat until then? I have my doubts.
It’s not like Ryan Walters didn’t do his part to help this offense after landing QB Hudson Card in the transfer portal from Texas. Card has demonstrated great arm talent and – at some points – poise throughout the season, but has also been impacted the play-calling. There has been no flow to the Purdue offense.
I could definitely be jumping the gun here. But if I’m not, there’s still no shame in Ryan Walters making an error with one of his first hires as a head coach. Not every assistant hire is a slam-dunk. What matters is how he responds to the situation. Clinging to Graham Harrell or making a second bad hire could debilitate Walters’ chances of building a power at Purdue.
I believe whole-heartedly in Ryan Walters as a leader, recruiter, and defensive mastermind. But offense is not his specialty. How he handles the offense if it continues to sputter will define his future with Purdue.
Luke Fickell, Wisconsin
A season that started with Big Ten title aspirations is suddenly at a cross roads thanks to inconsistent play on both sides of the football. Needless to say, Luke Fickell’s tenure at Wisconsin has not gotten off to the quick start many fans expected.
First, let’s start out on the positive side. Fickell and his staff have been on a tear in recruiting since they arrived in Madison. They are currently 25th in the country and 6th in the Big Ten in the 2024 class. That includes one of the top RB prospects in the country in Dilin Jones and tons of beef along the offensive and defensive lines. The Badgers also brought in one of the better transfer classes this past off-season, totaling 15 commitments.
On the flip side, Wisconsin hasn’t gotten a commitment in the 2024 class since July and there don’t appear to be any hot recruits trending in their direction. And they haven’t gotten a ton of production out of their 2023 transfer class outside of Tanner Mordecai, who might be out for the season. Oklahoma State transfer Bryson Greene has been the most impactful of the three receivers they brought in, but he has only 15 receptions on the year. Cincinnati transfer Joe Huber was supposed to be an All-American addition on the offensive line, but he has struggled with his transition from tackle to guard.
The product on the field in 2023 has also been a mixed bag. Wisconsin is outside the top 30 nationally in every major defensive statistic except yards per play, in which they rank 24th. And second best offense they’ve faced after Washington State is, let me check, Purdue. But Fickell’s defenses at Cincinnati were known for their secondary and big plays. Wisconsin’s definitely improved there, right? Well, they are actually on pace for about the same exact amount of sacks and turnovers forced as they had last year. And they are giving up more pass yards per game than they did in 2022 when their secondary was the team’s most glaring weakness.
But Luke Fickell was brought in to make up for Paul Chrysts’ deficiency in recruiting and player development. He’s clearly getting the Badgers back on the right track. I and many other Wisconsin fans may have been to ambitious expecting Luke Fickell to immediately flip the switch with a defense that clearly lacks the athleticism they usually have along the defensive front. And for that, I think Luke Fickell and his staff deserve patience.
But for the third straight time, I’m going to talk about my concerns with the offense. It’s almost like there’s something in the water in the Big Ten.
Fickell brought Phil Longo in as OC to help modernize the Badger offense. While the tradition of a powerful run game and dominant offensive line is sure to maintained, Fickell wanted to bring in an aerial attack that is equally as effective. When anyone thinks of Wisconsin, they probably think of dynamic linebackers like Chris Borland & JJ Watt and punishing running backs like Ron Dayne & Jonathan Taylor. Adding more tempo and downfield shots to that paints a picture of a national championship contender.
But it appears Fickell and Longo may have turned the switch a little to early. While Wisconsin’s offensive line is not quite as dominant as I expected, the run game has still been the determining factor for the offense’s success. In their four wins, they are averaging over 230 yards per game. In their two losses, they’re averaging 97.
A lot of those struggles have been on their accord though. Against Washington State, they threw 40 passes compared to only 29 rushes. That can be forgiven to an extent, as the Badgers faced an early 21-point deficit. But against Iowa, that trend worsened. They threw 50 passes to only 28 runs against Iowa. That borderline lunacy considering Wisconsin was within 6 points of Iowa for all but two minutes of that game. On top of that, Braelon Allen was averaging nearly 5 yards per carry but received only 18 touches. Even after Tanner Mordecai went down, they continued their pass-first approach with an inexperienced Braedyn Locke.
Listen, I’m not arguing against Fickell’s effort to modernize Wisconsin’s offense. It’s what I’ve been screaming for Kirk Ferentz to do at Iowa. What is upsetting to see is the staunch effort to force this change too early. Braelon Allen is the strength of this team and someone needs to remind this coaching staff.
Luke Fickell is making a fundamental change to what has been the Badgers’ offensive identity for the past 30 years. That is not an easy thing to do, nor is it something that should be taken lightly. See Rich Rodriguez at Michigan circa 2008. He stripped everything down and reconstructed the roster to run a spread offense. That process set Michigan back nearly a decade until Jim Harbaugh came in to salvage the program. I’m not comparing Luke Fickell to Rich Rod, but it is a similar undertaking he is trying to do at Wisconsin.
Mabrey Mettauer is the Badgers’ 2024 QB commit. He is a 4-star prospect and stands at 6’5″. He has all the physical tools to run this offense like Phil Longo wants. Wisconsin has to pick up the pace a bit as far as increasing the talent level at wide receiver, but this offense should develop the assets they need to run a modern spread offense.
But even when that time comes, it is paramount that Luke Fickell not forget the roots of this football team. A strong offensive line and powerful run game should always be integral to Wisconsin’s success. If Luke Fickell loses sight of that, he could lose his grip on the program.
David Braun, Northwestern
Northwestern stands at 3-3 entering the back half of their schedule, already surpassing the win total most people expected from them. And it is all thanks to David Braun.
This Northwestern team hasn’t really had any gems appear to make a huge impact on the field. Bryce Gallagher, Xander Mueller, and Coco Azema are the leaders on defense as expected. Offensively, their offensive line has been handled by virtually every opponent and they’ve struggled to move the ball consistently, especially on the ground. Their ‘big’ offensive skill position addition, AJ Henning, hasn’t quite had the impact on this offense that I had hoped.
Despite that, Northwestern gutted out tough wins against Howard and Minnesota. They managed to hang around with Penn State into the 2nd half. And even in blowout losses to Duke and Rutgers, you never saw any quit in this football team.
Northwestern doesn’t need a ‘splash’ hire as their new head coach. That is simply something they are incapable of unless they want to take a swing on a young, inexperienced coaching prospect. That’s a dangerous line to walk in the middle of the greatest transformation the sport has ever seen.
If Northwestern wants to survive these next few years and emerge on the other end of this conference realignment as a consistent bowl-caliber team, they need a leader. They need a motivator. A player’s coach. A guiding light through what is sure to be a lot of turbulation. That is exactly what Ryan Braun has been.
From his very first appearance at Big Ten Media Days, to an ugly season-opening win, to their upset over Minnesota, Braun has been poised and said nothing but the right thing.
There’s a long way to go in the season. A 3-9 record is still very much on the table. Even if that happens, I cannot envision Northwestern bringing in a coach who is better-suited to lead these young men. I think it’s about time Northwestern removes the interim tag from David Braun’s title and gives him the reigns to the program full-time.