Big Ten 2022 Football Predictions

Posted on by thefloorslap

Welcome to The Floor Slap’s inaugural Big Ten Football Season Preview! EVERYTHING you need to prepare for the 2022 Big Ten Football season can be found here: projected standings, All-Big Ten teams, Heisman contenders, and more.

2022 Projected Standings

Be sure to click each team’s name below to see their individual team preview! These team pages, posted throughout August, contain position-by-position breakdowns, game predictions, and a complete preview for their 2022 season.

Big Ten East Predictions

The Big Ten East is going to be the deepest division in college football in 2022. In almost every other division in football, Rutgers would probably be bowl-eligible. The Scarlet Knights have taken significant steps forward as a program, but I have them winning only one Big Ten game because of how good the Big Ten East will be. The depth of teams with Penn State, Michigan State, and an emerging Maryland will make the Big Ten East the toughest division (outside of the SEC) to win a game each week. Yet, Ohio State and Michigan are significantly more talented than the rest of the division (and conference). I believe it will be evident early in the season that the division once again will come down to The Game on November 26th.

  1. Ohio State (12-0, 9-0 BIG)
    • Heisman favorite CJ Stroud’s connection with Jaxon Smith-Ngijba steals all the headlines – and rightfully so. But the RB duo of Treveyon Henderson & Miyan Williams coupled with a vastly improved offensive line will make this offense almost unstoppable. The Silver Bullet defense should be back to being one of the conference’s best with a brand new coaching staff and a new scheme. While Denzel Burke looks like Ohio State’s next lockdown corner, DEs Jack Sawyer, Zach Harrison and JT Tuimoloau will wreak havoc on opposing quarterbacks. I think the feeling of failure from the 2021 season will drive this team to an undefeated season and a National Championship appearance.
  2. Michigan (11-1, 8-1 BIG)
    • The 2022 Wolverine offense has the potential to be the best in their school’s history. The Wolverines return 9 starters and should have the nation’s best offensive line for the second consecutive year. Incumbent starter Cade McNamara should start the season at QB and have plenty of options with Blake Corum at RB and the conference’s deepest WR core. Keep an eye out for fan-favorite and a more athletic quarterback option in JJ McCarthy to potentially take over if McNamara falters. The defense, though, will have to replace key pieces on all three levels. Given the high-powered offense, their vulnerable back-7 shouldn’t be a problem until the winner-take-all game against Ohio State. I don’t see them beating their rival again.
  3. Penn State (9-3, 7-2 BIG)
    • Sean Clifford returns at QB after an up-and-down four years but should have his best year yet. They lose their star receiver Jahan Dotson but add Mitchell Tinsley from Western Kentucky, who had 87 receptions for 1,402 yards and 14 TDs last year. With a combined 118 receptions between Parker Washington, KeAndre Lambert-Smith, and TE Brenton Strange in 2021, the Nittany Lions have elite talent at receiver. Although their offensive line should remain one of the Big Ten’s worst, Penn State should have one of the best defenses in the conference led by All-Big Ten candidates PJ Mustipher at DT, Curtis Jacobs at LB, Ji’Ayir Brown at S, and Joey Porter Jr at CB. 
  4. Maryland (8-4, 5-4 BIG)
    • The Terp offense should be one of the Big Ten’s most exciting to watch with QB Taulia Tagovailoa returning after throwing for 3,860 yards and 26 TDs in 2021. Maryland returns everyone on the offensive line which should give Taulia time to find the plethora of talent at WR. That includes last year’s leader Rakim Jarrett, Dontay Demus (who had over 500 yards in the first 4 games before a season-ending injury), and Florida transfer Jacob Copeland. Their defense should be improved with their leader Ruben Hyppolite at LB, lockdown CB Jakorian Bennett, and Mosiah-Nasil Kite at DT. But a lack of pass rush and experience at safety will force lots of shoot-outs in a grueling schedule.
  5. Michigan State (8-4, 5-4 BIG) 
    • In 2021 the Spartans rode a fantastic offensive line and a magical season from Kenneth Walker to a surprising 11-2 record. Kenneth Walker is gone, but the Spartans return one of the best QBs in the conference in Payton Thorne and one of the country’s best receivers in Jayden Reed. Running behind another solid line, 2020 Pac-12 OPY Jarek Broussard looks to step up in place of Walker at RB. MSU should have one of the Big Ten’s best front-7’s led by DT Jacob Slade and their top two LBs from last year: Cal Haladay and Darius Snow. However, their weak secondary figures to struggle again in 2022. With a tougher schedule in combination to the weak secondary, Mel Tucker and the Spartans figure to take a step back from last year.
  6. Rutgers (4-8, 1-8 BIG)
    • Although Rutgers tends to remain the BIG’s laughing stock, Schiano has them heading in the right direction entering his 3rd year. Noah Vedral enters his 6th year and offers experience at QB, but fans should hope exciting 2021 4-star dual-threat Gavin Wimsatt sees the field. Syracuse transfer Taj Harris and veteran Aaron Cruickshank lead a solid group of receivers while CBs Kessawn Abraham and Max Melton hope to lead a talented secondary. However, there are still too many holes here – notably a lack of run game and a linebacker unit that lost their top three guys. Without a consistent run or pass game, the Scarlet Knights are still a year away from bowl-eligibility.
  7. Indiana (3-9, 0-9 BIG)
    • Hoosier fans are wishing to forget the ‘21 season after a disastrous 2-10 campaign that came on the weight of high expectations. Although they won’t get much help from their offensive line, they add Auburn transfer and former 4star RB Shaun Shivers. Shivers could be incredibly dynamic with his speed and pass-catching ability. Former 4star QBs Jack Tuttle and Connor Bazelak should provide more consistency behind center. Even though CB Tiawan Mullen returns from injury to lead a vastly improved secondary, Indiana will be too outmatched along the offensive & defensive lines to stay with most of the Big Ten teams. It should be another rough season for the Hoosiers.

Big Ten West

Unlike the Big Ten East, the West is a legitimate toss-up between 5 teams. Every team in contention – Wisconsin, Iowa, Purdue, Minnesota and Nebraska – have glaring weaknesses in addition to great strengths. With so many evenly-matched teams, this will be a bloodbath of a division with a revolving door at the top of the standings. The winner likely won’t be determined until the last week of the season. Wisconsin usually saves its best football for November and I have them winning the division based on H2H wins.

  1. Wisconsin (8-4, 5-4 BIG)
    • Graham Mertz hopes to live up to his 4star ranking, as the 4th-year QB has a pedestrian 7:8 TD:INT since his first start back in 2020. He won’t have a lot of help at WR with Chimere Dike being the only player with any real experience. But he will have one of the best OLs in the country as well as one of the best RB tandems in Braelon Allen and Chez Mellusi. The back-7 loses a lot from last year but the Badgers always reload defensively. DT Keeanu Benton and LB Nick Herbig should anchor another solid defense – but far from the conference’s best. The Badgers match up reasonably well against Iowa, Minnesota, and Purdue which should propel them to Indianapolis.  
  2. Iowa (8-4, 5-4 BIG)
    • Led by LBs Jack Campbell & Seth Benson (who combined for 248 tackles last year), CB Riley Moss, and DE Joe Evans, the Hawkeye defense will be amongst the nation’s best in 2022. The offense, however, will be another story. Spencer Petras has started 19 games across the past two seasons and has been serviceable, completing 57% of his passes for 3,449yds 19TDs and 14INTs. All-Big Ten TE Sam LaPorta leads an otherwise lackluster receiving core, while an offensive line that struggled in 2021 has to replace three starters. With Petras unable to stretch the defense and the run game likely to struggle, Iowa is going to have a tough time when their defense gets tired.
  3. Purdue (8-4, 5-4 BIG)
    • The Boilermakers return 7 starters from an explosive offense, highlighted by QB Aidan O’Connell who completed 72% of his passes for 3,712 yards and 28 TDs last year. Despite the loss of their top three WRs, Purdue still returns Broc Thompson and stud TE Payne Durham in addition to transfers from Iowa and Auburn. The secondary will remain one of the Big Ten’s strongest with CB Cory Trice. The front-7 needs to overcome a few losses, but LB Jalen Graham, DT Branson Deen, and DE Kydran Jenkins are good pieces. The Boilers will be in the thick of the Big West race, but with questions on the offensive line, lack of a run game, and a tougher schedule makes it hard to see them winning.
  4. Minnesota (8-4, 5-4 BIG)
    • If healthy, Mohamad Ibrahim and Trey Potts rival OSU and Wisconsin for the best RB duo in the conference. Minnesota’s all-time winningest QB Tanner Morgan also returns but behind a depleted offensive line (with the exception of Rimington-contender John Michael Schmitz). Nonetheless, a solid WR core, led by breakout-candidate Dylan Wright and veteran Chris Autman-Bell, should make this a dangerous offense. Unfortunately, the Gophers have one of the Big Ten’s weakest defensive lines and lose last year’s leading tackler Jack Gibbens at LB. Their weakened front seven likely will diminish what should be great secondary. Finishing the season vs Iowa and Wisconsin, the Gophers will stumble at the finish line.  
  5. Nebraska (7-5, 5-4 BIG)
    • Decimated by close games and poor late-game decision-making, the Cornhuskers are a lock to reach a bowl for the first time under Scott Frost. They lose dynamic QB Adrian Martinez, but should have more consistent play with the addition of Casey Thompson from Texas and Chubba Purdy from FSU. DE Garrett Nelson and LB Luke Reimer might be the Big Ten’s best at their respective positions, but question marks in the secondary loom large. Nebraska should be playing with a lot of confidence heading into their final 4-game stretch, but a weak secondary and lack of top talent at QB, WR, or RB will hold them back. They’re at least a year away from getting to Indy.
  6. Illinois (5-7, 3-6 BIG)
    • Chase Brown is an All-Big Ten caliber RB for the Illini. With the help of an improved offensive line, Brown should thrive in Brett Bielema’s run-heavy offense. TE Luke Ford and QB-turned-WR Isaiah Williams each have breakout potential, but neither Syracuse-transfer Tommy DeVito nor returner Artur Sitkowski look like the answer at QB. DE Jer’Zhan Newton, LB Tarique Barnes, and S Sydney Brown are a few names to watch on defense, but the Illini should be middle-of-the-pack on that side of the ball given key losses at DT, LB, and CB. Bielema has Illinois heading in the right direction, but it’s hard to see them going bowling in this competitive division.
  7. Northwestern (3-9, 0-9 BIG)
    • Offensively, Northwestern figures to take huge strides from last year’s dreadful performance with the return of former 4-star QB Ryan Hilinski and All-Big Ten candidate Evan Hull at RB. Malik Washington leads a deep but unspectacular WR room. The offensive line struggled last year but should be improved with 4 starters back and 110 career starts in total. However, the Wildcats have one of the conference’s weakest front-7’s with five starters gone between the two groups. Even though Northwestern will be able to put up some points this year, most opponents will have no problem putting up points of their own and tearing their defense up on the ground.

2022 All-BIG Teams

**Insert a brief paragraph saying here are my predictions* Have like one sentence about the toughest position groups and then a sentence or two on key cuts from 1st team or whatever. Mention any big jump for a player that you have that others don’t (I’m super high on Rakim Jarrett or whatever) if you have any big swings***

Position Unit Rankings

The goal here is to show each Big Ten team’s relative strengths and weaknesses for 2022.

The first chart shows each team’s grade (from D- to A+) for every position group. However, multiple teams share the same grade for a few of the position groups. So the second chart breaks those ties and ranks every team’s position group from 1-14.

The rankings can be a bit misleading, though. For example, Indiana’s 8th-ranked DB group is not indicative of the talent they have at that position (graded B-). The Big Ten just has some particularly strong secondaries heading into 2022.

Top 10 Heisman Contenders

  1. QB CJ Stroud – Ohio State
    • The betting favorite to take home the trophy and The Floorslap’s projected winner, CJ Stroud looks to build on a season which saw him lead the country in QBR. Even with the loss of Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson at receiver, Stroud has ridiculous talent surrounding him on the line, at running back, and at receiver. The nation’s best offense will run through Stroud who should put up some of the gaudiest numbers in Ohio State’s history.
  2. WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba – Ohio State
    • Only three WRs have won The Heisman trophy in it’s history, but DeVonta Smith’s 2020 victory gives Njigba some hope. He had 95 receptions for 1,606 yards and 9 TDs last year despite sharing looks with a couple first round picks. If the Rose Bowl (where he put up 15-347-3) was any indication, JSN will be Stroud’s first look on just about every play. He has a chance to have one of – maybe the – greatest season by a WR ever.
  3. QB Aidan O’Connell – Purdue
    • Entering his 4th year, O’Connell is going to be leading one of the nation’s premier pass attacks. He was 5th nationally in QBR and threw for almost 4,000 yards and 28 TDs last year. Although he loses his top three targets, he finished 2021 on a high note throwing for 534 yards and 5 TDs in their bowl victory over Tennessee. If Purdue makes a run to the Big Ten Championship, O’Connell might find himself in NYC.
  4. RB Braelon Allen – Wisconsin
    • As a true freshman last year, Allen ran for 1,268 yards and 12 TDs on 6.8 ypc. He got better as the year went on, rushing for 100+ yards in 8 of his final 9 games and averaging 152 ypg in his final 4. Allen figures to only improve entering his second season and will run behind one of the nation’s best offensive lines in a run-heavy scheme. However, Chez Mellusi’s role in the backfield puts a ceiling on Allen’s production.
  5. RB Blake Corum – Michigan
    • Corum had 962 yards and 11 TDs on 6.7ypc despite taking a back seat to Hassan Haskins. Haskins is gone and Michigan’s offensive line might be better than last year’s group that won the Joe Moore Award for the nation’s best line. Corum should be the focal point in what might be the best offense in Michigan’s history. However, they’ll likely pass more and talented sophomore RB Donovan Edwards will get more touches.
  6. RB TreVeyon Henderson – Ohio State
    • Henderson is probably the Big Ten’s most talented RB, rushing for 1,248 yards and 15 TDs on 6.8 ypc as a true freshman. He’s also a receiving threat, adding 27 receptions and 4 receiving TDs. Although the former 5-star will only improve going into 2022, he’ll be in a pass-first offense and backup RB Miyan Williams is too talented to keep off the field. Henderson’s opportunity to put up Heisman-like numbers is fairly small.
  7. QB Taulia Tagovailoa – Maryland
    • Finally healthy last year, Tua’s younger brother threw for 3,860 yards and 26 TDs. With another year of experience under his belt, his entire offensive line returning, and one of the country’s best receiving rooms, Taulia has a great chance to put up gaudy numbers. Maryland will be much improved, but the toughest division in college football won’t allow them to win enough games for Taulia to stay in the Heisman watch.
  8. RB Mohamad Ibrahim – Minnesota
    • Ibrahim absolutely dismantled Ohio State’s defense in last year’s opener, racking up 164 yards on 30 carries. He was lost for the year in that game, but he had 1,076 yards and 15 TDs in just 7 games in 2020. Entering his 5th year, the stud running back will be a focal point of Minnesota’s offense. But Ibrahim will have to share the backfield with Trey Potts and his offensive line loses 4 starters.
  9. QB Payton Thorne – Michigan State
    • Thorne’s breakthrough 2021 season was largely overshadowed by Kenneth Walker, but he managed to throw for 3,240 yards and accounted for 31 total TDs. He played his best in their final two games when Walker went down with an injury – victories over Penn State and Pitt – and returns one of the best receivers in the Big Ten in Jayden Reed. Thorne’s numbers should improve, but a Heisman campaign is still unlikely.
  10.  LB Jack Campbell or CB Riley Moss – Iowa
    • Iowa is going to ride what is perhaps the country’s best defense in 2022, so it is not unimaginable that one of their defensive studs could appear in the Heisman discussion if the Hawkeyes contend for the College Football Playoff. Campbell had 140 tackles, 2 INTs, and 5 PBUs last year. Moss, on the other hand, has 10 INTs and 3 pick-6’s in his career. He had 4 INTs and 5 PBUs in 2021 before an injury derailed his season.

Under-the-Radar Player to Know From Each Team

  • Illinois: Jer’Zhan Newton, DE
    • The Illini’s pass rush should take another step forward in 2022, with Newton leading a deep group of DEs. He received Big Ten Honorable Mention last year, putting up 50 tackles and 3.5 sacks. He’s made an impact on this defense since his freshman year in 2020 and figures to take yet another step forward this year.
  • Iowa: Keagan Johnson, WR
    • The 2021 4-star emerged as a big-play threat for Iowa last year, hauling in 352 yards and a couple TDs on almost 20 yards-per-catch. This offense is unspectacular at best, but will need to find receiving production from someone other than TE Sam LaPorta. Keagan Johnson could be the playmaker Iowa needs.
  • Indiana: Shaun Shivers, RB
    • The Hoosiers lose their top 3 rushers from an ugly offense in 2022, but add a couple transfers headlined by Auburn’s Shaun Shivers. The 5’7″ rocket was a key 3rd down option for the Tigers, amassing over 1,000 rushing yards and 38 receptions in his career. He offers the game-changing speed this backfield needs.
  • Maryland: Jakorian Bennett, CB 
    • Bennett was Honorable Mention last year with 11 PBUs and 3 INTs and forewent the NFL Draft to return as a leader on this Maryland defense. The #11CB in the 2018 class and has overcome injuries early in his career. With elite speed, Bennett looks like one of the Big Ten’s best – and most overlooked – cornerbacks.
  • Michigan: Junior Colson, LB 
    • Michigan’s defense loses loads of talent at all three levels, so much of the focus is on their electric offense. Although they lose their top two LBs from last year, Colson should emerge as the front-7’s leader after making an impact as a true freshman. The 2021 4-star had 61 tackles in 2021 and has great physical tools.
  • Minnesota: Beanie Bishop, CB 
    • Although the Gophers lose their top CB from the Big Ten’s 2nd-best secondary, they add 1st-team C-USA Beanie Bishop from WKU. He had 4 PBUs and 3 INTs as one of the defense’s few bright spots. Entering his 5th year, Bishop should be a leader for another solid pass defense and contend for an All-BIG spot.
  • Michigan State: Khris Bogle, DE 
    • MSU desperately needs some pass rushers to step up after losing their top two guys. They might’ve found what they need in Florida transfer Bogle. The 2019 top-100 player made an immediate impact and has 8 career sacks. Now as an every-down player, Bogle should emerge as an elite pass rusher for the Spartans.
  • Nebraska: Ochuan Mathis, DE 
    • Garrett Nelson is the undoubted leader, but the Huskers could have one of the Big Ten’s best pass-rushing duos with the addition of Mathis from TCU. He has 131 tackles and 15.5 sacks over the past three seasons and achieved 2nd-team All-Big in each of the past two. At 6’5″ 260lbs, Mathis could be special.
  • Northwestern: AJ Hampton, CB 
    • The Wildcats’ secondary takes a big blow with safety Brandon Joseph’s transfer to Notre Dame, but AJ Hampton looks poised to breakout as a one of the Big Ten’s top cornerbacks. Hampton showcased his playmaking ability with 13 PBUs last year and figures to improve even more entering his 5th year.
  • Ohio State: Steel Chambers, LB 
    • The former 4-star spent his first two seasons at running back but showed flashes of greatness playing linebacker last year for the first time since high school. With elite athleticism, great speed, and the trust of the new coaching staff, Chambers will make more big plays and be one of OSU’s leading tacklers.
  • Penn State: Curtis Jacobs, LB 
    • Following the losses of their top two LBs, Jacobs is the only player with ample experience at the position. But the #3OLB in the 2020 class made the most of his time on the field, totaling 61 tackles and 3 sacks last year. Not being talked about much so far, Jacobs should emerge as the defense’s leader and top tackler.
  • Purdue: Jalen Graham, LB
    • Originally a safety, Graham showed off his vastly improved coverage skills with 7 PBUs and a couple picks in 2021. At 6’3″ 220lbs, he also has the size to be impactful on the line of scrimmage. The Boilermakers lose their top guy at all three levels of the defense, but Graham’s special skillset will make him their centerpiece.
  • Rutgers: Taj Harris, WR 
    • Rutgers loses their top receiver from the past 4 seasons in Bo Melton, but the reliable Syracuse transfer should step up. Harris had 135 receptions for over 1,800 yards and 10 TDs from 2018-20 with the Orange. He had 14 receptions in the first 2 games of 2021, but a injury took him out for the rest of the year.
  • Wisconsin: Chimere Dike, WR 
    • With the losses of their top three WRs and First Team All-Big Ten TE Ferguson, the Badgers are desperate for playmakers to emerge on the outside. Dike figures to be the top guy after hauling in 31 receptions over his first two seasons. His experience and combination of size & speed call for a big 3rd season.