The Floor Slap's Big Ten Betting Guide - Week 3 - Hard-Hitting Big Ten Coverage

by Jordan Beckley and Sean Szymczak

It was another great weekend for Football. Welcome to the fold NFL! College has been playing for 2.5 weeks now.

Now that we have 2 weeks of games for every Big Ten team we have more data and therefore more clarity. For instance, we can see clearer that Illinois’ defense is certainly not as good without Ryan Walters. Michigan’s defense and Penn State’s offense is clearly great. We got clarity that Kyle McCord and Tayven Jackson are the QBs for OSU and IU. The game film clears up that Nebraska’s defense is awesome and that Jeff Sims is definitely not awesome.

Now, that we have more data we can start to bet smarter on teams with unknowns. Unfortunately, the books are getting smarter too. So make sure you follow our betting guide and we will make money together.

Week 2 was another profitable weekend. Jordan went 7-5 on his Big Ten picks and 7-10 on the lines that were released by Monday. He missed on both the late picks of the Indiana Under and the Ohio State cover. Sean went 8-4 on his Big Ten picks and is up to 72.73% on his picks through 2 weeks. Remember our goal is to hit at least 55-60%, which Jordan is toeing the line at 54.55%.

The money didn’t stop in conference either. We went 3 for 4 on our Out of Conference picks with Oregon, Ole Miss and Notre Dame covering. All of our prop picks cashed bringing our hit rate to 80% on props so far. Finally, both of our Hail Mary Parlays fell just out of reach nailing 2 of 3 legs and somehow both being ruined by an Auburn win but not covering against Cal.

Another profitable weekend has me feeling good. Let’s make some more picks and more money!

Picking Every Big Ten Game – Week 3

It is a huge week for the Big Ten conference with 7 Games against Power 5 opponents as well as Penn State going to Champaign to kick off their Big Ten schedules.

Before we break down the games, I wanted to give a bit of advice. When you read our column and you say, “Wow, that’s a good point. I’ll bet just that game.” Don’t.

Bet all the games. If you pick and choose, you risk picking all the losers in our guide.

I bet 5 of my picks week 1 and went 1-4. The 5 picks I didn’t bet I went 4-1. If I bet all of them I would’ve been (almost) even. So when I bet all 12 games this week I actually made good profits.

If you want to make money long term with our guide over the season, bet all the games. Even the ones you and I don’t feel great about.

Virginia (+13.5) at Maryland O/U: 50.5

To quote a friend who is a UVA grad “… We are going to be a bottom 2 or 3 team from Power 5 Schools”
UVA is bad bad losing to Tennessee 49-13 WK1 and 36-35 to James Madison WK2
Maryland is -580 ML already
Maryland burned me last week and looked less than stellar against Charlotte.
You have to have a short memory sometimes. Get the Maryland cover before it is over two Touchdowns.

Penn State (-15.5) at Illinois O/U: 48.5

I am not going to overexplain this one.
Kansas beat up Illinois on the ground and through the air and were up 28-7 at half.
Illinois defense isn’t good and Penn State’s offense is very good.
The only thing holding back the over is if Penn State’s defense shuts down Illinois.
Still, 48.5 is too low. My official pick is over but I love Penn State to cover too if you like to occasionally put in Same Game Parlays on FanDuel

Georgia Southern (+16.5) at Wisconsin O/U: 62.5

First impression was “Man that is a large over”
Then you see that Georgia Southern is 2-0 with a 34-0 win over Citadel and a 49-35 win over UAB
FanDuel is projecting a 39-23 game basically. I’m not sure I can see Wisconsin scoring that much.
Wisco is 1-1 after their 31-22 loss at Washington State. Badger point totals so far are 55 and 53.
Tanner Mordecai has thrown for 467 yards with 2 TDs and 2 INTs on 69% completion. The air raid hasn’t taken over yet.
Following my own advice and not letting last weeks burn get me. Badgers should be able to run this week. Wisco to cover.

Louisville (-10.5) at Indiana O/U: 53.5

Louisville is 2-0 with a 39-34 win at Georgia Tech and 56-0 against Murray State.
Fun Fact: Louisville played 9 QBs against Murray State with 5 completing passes.
Former Purdue QB Jack Plummer has reunited with Jeff Brohm at Louisville as the real starter.
Indiana played OSU closer than expected Week 1 and then blew out Indiana State week 2.
Tayven Jackson (younger brother of Trayce Jackson-Davis) separated himself as the guy
IU ran for 200+ yards and 5 touchdowns week 2. Louisville seems to have an okay to good rush defense.
We will learn a lot about Indiana’s offense this weekend. They scored 3 against OSU and 41 against ISU. Louisville is somewhere in between those two.
For me, the over under might be too volatile. I can talk myself into a shootout or a lower scoring game.
I like Louisville to win, but I hate the spread though because 31-21 makes a ton of sense and that isn’t a cover.
I’m going with Indiana’s defense being better than Murray State or Georgia Tech and the under.

Minnesota (+7) at North Carolina O/U: 49.5

One of the things I took away from week 2 is that the Under is the move for Minnesota.
49.5 is steep for the Gopher offense, but they play Drake Maye and the Tar Heels’ offense.
UNC looked great shutting down USC week 1 31-17 and then escaped against App State 40-34 in Double OT.
Another lesson of week 2 is to take the home team. +7 seems low for #20 North Carolina against Minnesota.
I’m sticking with a clock rule game and Minnesota milking away game time with a healthy dose of Darius Taylor. Third straight Under for the Gophers.

Northwestern (+19.5) at Duke O/U: 46.5

Northwestern showed signs of life in Week 2 with a statement victory over UTEP 38-7 in the first win in the post-Pat Fitzgerald era.
Don’t look for signs of life this week.
The Wildcats are on the road for the Nerd Bowl, and I love Duke.
Rutgers beat NU by 17.
Duke beat Clemson by 21.
Duke is good. Northwestern isn’t.

Western Michigan (+28.5) at Iowa O/U: 42.5

Iowa’s offense has improved this year but it is still an under machine with 38 and 33 total points in their two wins so far.
The Broncos have had totals of 55 points and 52 points in their two games so far. They were crushed by Syracuse 48-7.
Syracuse has a much better offense than Iowa.
I should do the under but I think that Western Michigan covering four touchdowns is actually safer.

Virginia Tech (+6.5) at Rutgers O/U: 39.5

There’s already been serious movement on this one as Rutgers opened as -4.5 favorites and now are up to -6.5.
The under seems low but Rutgers has given up 14 points in two competitions.
The Hokies scored 17 points in a horribly disjointed weather delay game at home to Purdue last week. They had 36 in a 19 point victory over ODU in week 1.
Following the money here can be dangerous. I wanted to take Rutgers, but there are just more permutations with Virginia Tech winning and Rutgers winning by less than a Touchdown.

Western Kentucky (+27.5) at Ohio State O/U: 63.5

I’ve mentioned I am not going to let my previous burns affect me, but with OSU I am.
I have missed on OSU covering two straight weeks. Fool me one time. Shame on you. Fool me twice. Shame on me.
To quote George Bush on J Cole’s No Role Modelz, “Fool me, we can’t get fooled again.”
WKU can score points winning 41-24 against USF and 52-22 against Houston Baptist.
I think Day saves some ammo for Notre Dame and this game ends in the 41-20 range.

Washington (-16) at Michigan State O/U: 57.5

This is tough. I want to make a case for Michigan State. Nathan Carter and Noah Kim seem to be an underrated 1-2 punch.
But with the Mel Tucker suspension, I just don’t see enough wind in their sails to pull it off.
Washington is awesome. The Huskies beat the brakes off Tulsa and Boise State so far.
Former Hoosier QB Michael Penix Jr has thrown for 859 yards and 8 TDs in those games.
If you want to be nice to the Big Ten, the over is a good play. I also think Washington cruises.

Northern Illinois (+11.5) at Nebraska O/U: 45.5

Remember the intro… Nebraska defense good. Jeff Sims bad.
Northern Illinois is 1-1 with a 27-24 win against Boston College and a 14-11 loss to Southern Illinois.
There is no reason to think about an over unless this line shrinks dramatically.

Bowling Green (+40.5) at Michigan O/U: 50.5

Bowling Green is capable of putting up points with a 34-24 loss to Liberty and 38-15 win over Eastern Illinois.
BGSU is only an hour away from Ann Arbor. I think the Green Falcons get up for this game and the fans travel and former Hoosier and Mizzou QB Connor Bazelak has the game of his life and …. just kidding.
Michigan will cruise once again. Michigan hasn’t covered or hit the over yet.
Take your pick. I think its slightly more likely that the over hits than the cover so I will pick BGSU to not lose by 6 (6!) Touchdowns.

Syracuse (-2.5) at Purdue O/U: 58.5

This will likely be the game of the week in the Big Ten. It is the only game with a spread of less than a TD.
Syracuse looks great at 2-0 with 65-0 win over Colgate and a 48-7 win over Western Michigan.
Syracuse has balance passing and running with 5+ TDs from each.
Purdue gave up 39 to Fresno State at home two weeks ago. This game could have some points.
Their game last year was a classic ending in a game winning TD for Syracuse with 7 seconds left.
The fun pick is the over.
I’m going with the homer pick and taking Purdue to get revenge at home.

Game	Spread	O/U	Jordan’s Pick	Sean’s Pick
Virginia vs Maryland	MD -14.5	48.5	MD -14.5	O48.5
Penn State vs Illinois	PSU -14.5	48.5	O48.5	PSU -14.5
Georgia Southern vs Wisconsin	WISC -19.5	64.5	WISC -19.5	GAS+19.5
Louisville vs Indiana	LOU -10.5	50.5	U50.5	U50.5**
Minnesota vs North Carolina	UNC -7.5	49.5	U49.5	MINN +7.5
Western Kentucky vs Ohio State	OSU -29.5	64.5	WKU +29.5	U64.5**
Northwestern vs Duke	DUKE -18.5	48.5	Duke -18.5	O48.5
Western Michigan vs Iowa	IOWA -28.5	42.5	WMU +28.5	U42.5**
Virginia Tech vs Rutgers	RUTG -7	39.5	VT +7	VT +7
Washington vs Michigan State	WASH -16.5	55.5	WASH -16.5	MSU +16.5**
Northern Illinois vs Nebraska	NEB -10.5	43.5	U43.5	NEB -10.5
Bowling Green vs Michigan	MICH -40.5	52.5	BGSU +40.5	U52.5
Syracuse vs Purdue	SYR -2.5	58.5	PURD +2.5	PURD +2.5**

** Indicates Sean’s 5 Locks, featured on The Floor Slap Podcast

Season Records to Date

Jordan: 12-10 (7-5 last week)

Sean: 16-6 (8-4 last week)

Consensus Picks: 6-2 (3-1 last week)

Sean’s 5 Locks: 8-2 (4-1 last week)

Out of Conference Games to Watch

Jordan: New Mexico State (+0.5) at New Mexico O/U: 51.5 // Colorado State (+22.5) at Colorado O/U 59.5

It is a lousy week for ranked matchups. So, lets do a rivalry special!!

New Mexico State (1-2) will visit New Mexico (1-1) in the 113th edition of the Rio Grande Rivalry. The Lobos lead the all time series at 73-34-5. The Aggies won last year. New Mexico won the previous three. They have split the last six. No team has won just one in a row since 2002. Thanks for joining me on this New Mexico history lesson. Lobos to cover.

Gameday will be there for the Rocky Mountain Showdown. What an awesome rivalry name. Colorado leads the series 67-22-2. Colorado has won the last 5, but the last game was in 2019. The Rams are 0-2 with losses to Sacramento State by 31 and Washington State by 26. The spread is hefty, but I must pick Colorado to cover. Say one nice thing about Colorado State. Their colors and Ram style helmets are awesome and have always been better than the St. Louis or LA Rams versions. Oh, read my piece on Colorado too!

Sean: Tennessee (-6.5) vs Florida O/U: 57.5 // BYU (+8.5) vs Arkansas O/U: 47.5

Everyone seems to be riding with the Vols in this rivalry matchup, but I’m not sure what about wins over Virginia and Austin Peay (by 17 points) have done to inspire such confidence. Sure Joe Milton has a big arm, but he’s averaging barely over 6 yards an attempt. The Tennessee defense has looked good so far, suffocating opponents’ run games. Led by Garham Mertz and a strong run game, Florida’s offense has been strong since halftime of the Utah game. I could see this game turning into a shootout or a defensive showdown. Either way, it should be a good one. I think the Swamp will have an affect on Tennessee and Florida will keep it close down to the wire, covering +6.5. After all, they only lost 38-33 on the road last year.

Remember Kedon Slovis? The freshman that started for USC in 2019? He’s the starter at BYU now. I didn’t know that. There’s been a lot of movement with this game, with the opening spread at 10.5 and over/under at 52. Arkansas has been a tough place for non-SEC opponents to play and Vegas seems to be favoring them. I’ll lean with the Razorbacks to cover -8.5.

Jordan’s Hail Mary Parlay

Minnesota UNC U/48.5
VT Rutgers O/39.5
BGSU Michigan U/50.5
NIU Nebraska U/43.5

FanDuel Odds: +1248

Trying something different here. I’m going with an all Points Total Parlay. I’ve been going with a lot of Moneylines and Covers in the Hail Mary Parlay and I want to try something else. I feel good about these 4 points picks. Will I still feel good 7 minutes into the first quarter of each game? Almost certainly not. But for a low stake this will be a fun bet that could payout in a big way.

Sean’s Hail Mary Parlay of the Week

Purdue ML (+112) vs Syracuse
Indiana ML (+300) vs Louisville
Minnesota ML (+220) vs North Carolina

FanDuel Odds: +2614

Having blind faith in the Big Ten has NEVER backfired!

Honestly, I could see all three of these happening. Purdue is battle-tested already and hosts Virginia under the lights. I thought that would be a pick ’em. We don’t know for sure exactly how good Minnesota’s defense is, but it will surely be the best UNC has faced so far. With the emergence of freshman Darius Taylor alongside Sean Tyler at running back, the Gopher offense might be able to keep up with Drake Maye if Kaliakmanis steps up. Indiana is the longest best by far, but their defense might be for real. If this turns into a good old fashioned Big Ten dog fight, Indiana will be more well equipped to win than Louisville.

Prop Picks – Week 3

Taulia Tagovailoa: O1.5 Passing TDs (-192) vs Virginia
- I think Taulia will come strong out of the gate in an effort to make up for last week’s sloppy performance. The Cavaliers have given up two passing TDs in each of their first two games and Tagovailoa has four TD passes so far. I think Virginia is able to put up some points on the Terps, keeping it a game into the 2nd half. So Taulia should continue his average of 35 pass attempts per game. If that’s the case, he should be able to throw for a couple TDs.
Drew Allar: O247.5 Passing Yards (-114) vs Illinois
- Illinois’ pass defense has been amongst the nation’s worst so far this season. Drew Allar already looks like a veteran and I’m sure James Franklin won’t put on any training wheels for his first road start. This one just comes down to simple math: Allar is averaging 265 yards per game and the Illini is giving up 254 pass yards per game. I am confident Drew Allar gets above 250.
Chez Mellusi: O64.5 Rushing Yards (-114) vs Georgia Southern
- Mellusi is leading the Badgers in carries and yards through two games. This is clearly more of a committee than I had thought, and Georgia Southern has given up 150 yards per game on the ground to The Citadel and UAB. Wisconsin should top that easily. Mellusi and Braelon Allen might both get 100 yards.
Drake Maye: U265.5 Passing Yards (-114) vs Minnesota
- Minnesota’s pass defense might be among the nation’s best. The Gophers are going to try to run the ball and limit possessions for Drake Maye. He’s averaging less than 250 yards per game so far, so I don’t see him going above that this weekend. Especially when the Tar Heels can lean on RB Omarion Hampton.
Marvin Harrison Jr: O99.5 Receiving Yards (-114) vs Western Kentucky
- He put up over 150 yards in last week’s first half. McCord has shown incredible chemistry with him and the Buckeyes are sure to air it out more as the season progresses. WKU has their own aerial attack that can put up points, so I don’t see Ohio State cruising to a big halftime lead and then putting in their second string. Marvin Harrison should play at least three quarters and should put up over 100 yards while doing so.
Noah Kim: O235.5 Passing Yards (-114) vs Washington
- Michigan State is going to have to pass the ball and put up some points in order to stay with the Huskies. He’s the Big Ten’s leader in passing yards through 2 weeks. Don’t overthink this

Sean’s 5 Locks

Sean releases his 5 locks every Wednesday on The Floor Slap Podcast. Check out, subscribe and rate The Floor Slap podcast on all major platforms.

The Floor Slap’s Big Ten Betting Guide – Week 3