The Floor Slap's Big Ten Betting Guide - Week 4 - Hard-Hitting Big Ten Coverage

by Jordan Beckley and Sean Szymczak

Well, it was bound to happen at some point.

We had a “down” week this past weekend. We lost money but barely. Sean went 6 for 13 after his hot start in the first two weeks. Jordan went positive at 7 for 13 but ended negative after misses on the props and out of conference. Even our consensus picks struggled at 1 for 3 as we underestimated Rutgers and Hudson Card just fumbled again as I wrote this sentence.

We told you this past weekend’s slate was not the best and we were stuck picking large spreads and tight over unders. Scott Hanson has coined the witching hour on Redzone in reference to the last hour of NFL Football games and described it as, “when wins become losses and when losses become wins.”

We had our own witching hour for our bets as games with decided outcomes became bad beats. Iowa needlessly scored with 2 minutes left to cover the spread against Western Michigan 41-10. That was a loss. Northern Illinois scored a Touchdown and a two point conversion to make it 35-11 with 4 seconds left to make the over. Brutally bad beat. Beyond that it was a gutsy Saturday with late possessions that almost swung the Purdue cover, the Minnesota under, the Illini cover and more.

Let’s just take a breath, and move onto next week.

Picking Every Big Ten Game – Week 4

We are still batting at our goal of 55% or above on all major categories. Now, we get to focus on Big Ten games and less on huge spreads against nonconference opponents. We are entering more familiar territory, and we have by far the best slate of College Football yet.

We have nine games to pick, five of them being conference games. We have an undefeated Rutgers vs Michigan game, a new coaches game in Wisconsin vs Purdue on Friday, a ranked Iowa Penn State white out, and the game of the weekend in Ohio State at Notre Dame.

Go buy a case of your favorite beverage and the big bag (or two) of ice. It is going to be an awesome weekend of staring at the TV all day! Now, let’s pick some games.

Wisconsin (-5.5) at Purdue O/U: 53.5

This is a game of a new coaches and a game of ‘almosts’
Wisconsin almost has it put together and Tanner Mordecai is almost breaking through
Purdue is a shoulda coulda woulda or two away from winning against Fresno State and Syracuse and being 3-0
So, who puts it all together this game?
Purdue has been 9/43 on third down so far (37.2%) and 3/9 on 4th down (33%). Can they turn around their short yardage game against Wisconsin’s D?
Garrett Shrader and Mikey Keene have torn up Purdue’s defense in their losses. Tanner Mordecai and the Badger Backfield has to be able to do so too.
The Over under seems pretty fair if not a little high.
I like Wisconsin to put it together and dominate Purdue on the ground and cover.

Rutgers (+24.5) at Michigan O/U: 44.5

We are going to learn a lot about Rutgers on Saturday.
By no means do I think Rutgers will win at the Big House, but we will learn how competitive the Scarlet Knights are.
Rutgers is 3-0 with wins over Northwestern, Temple and VT. They have scored 24, 36, and 35 points while giving up 30 total points.
Michigan is 3-0 with wins over ECU, UNLV, and Bowling Green. They have scored 30, 35, and 31 points while giving up 16 total points.
This game could be an absolute punt fest if the run defenses hold.
Vegas is essentially predicting a 35-10 final score for Michigan.
I like Gavin Wimsatt and Kyle Monangai to score more in the 13-20 point range.
Can Michigan score 38-45 points against Rutgers to cover? I don’t think so.

Florida Atlantic (+15.5) at Illinois O/U: 45.5

This could be the toughest game to predict of the week
Luke Altmyer threw 4 picks and got benched against Penn State.
John Paddock at first looked awful then looked competent.
Who will be the starter?
Illinois should have a good defense but also has given up 28+ points every game so far
Former Nebraska and Texas QB and current FAU starter Casey Thompson has been not good the past two weeks in losses to Clemson and Ohio. He also could be playing hurt.
I don’t see FAU scoring 20+ points. I think Illinois’ defense gets right.
Illinois potential uncertainty at QB makes me unwilling to pick the spread. I will eagerly be eyeing Reggie Love’s over on rush yards as I think it will be a big day for him.
Lean on Running Game + Defense = I like the under.

Maryland (-7.5) at Michigan State O/: 52.5

I lied this might be the toughest game to predict
Maryland has played scrubs and dare I say struggled despite winning every game by multiple touchdowns
MSU looked awesome through two weeks and ran into a buzz saw in Washington right as they lost Mel Tucker
Will the Tucker hangover carryon another week for the Spartans?
Will Maryland and Taulia be able to pull away from Big Ten defenses?
Maryland’s defense has played two of the worst offenses in the D-1 and gave up an average of 17 points to them. What can Noah Kim and Nathan Carter do to them?
Vegas is projecting a 30-23 game. 53 seems like a lot of points, but is that too low?
I’m throwing out the Washington game and going with my gut and saying I’ve liked MSU against scrubs more than I’ve liked the Terps.
MSU to cover +7.5 at home.

Louisiana Tech (+19.5) at Nebraska O/U: 47.5

I think that Nebraska has one of the best defenses in the country and that they’re QB play compromised them week 1 and 2.
With Heinrich Haarberg behind center, the Cornhuskers rush attack was dominant and the defense gave up 3 points in the first 59:55 of game time.
No Jeff Sims means I like Nebraska to show their strength against an LA Tech team without much of a chance.
The real decision here is do you want to go with Nebraska to win by three TDs or for Under.
Vegas basically has it as 35-14. I am not going to let NIU’s last second touchdown get to me.
The Under is a safe play with Nebraska’s D.
Under has moved from 49.5 to 47.5 already. Get in on this quick!

Ohio State (-3.5) at Notre Dame O/U: 55.5

The best game of the week is the Buckeyes taking on the Fighting Irish in South Bend.
This could essentially be a CFP elimination game. I’m not sure Notre Dame will get in this year with wins over Duke, Clemson, and USC with a loss to OSU and not winning a Conference Championship. If OSU loses to ND it would be hard for them to run the table and win against Michigan, Penn State and the Big Ten West winner. If they do, could a 1-loss ND jump them?
Lost myself there. Too early for playoff debates. Betting the game. Right.
Notre Dame is a FG underdog at home.
The Public is split 46/54 in favor of Notre Dame.
Ohio State hasn’t given up 100 rushing yards in any of their three games. Audric Estime has had 95+ yards in all 4 games so far at 8.3 ypc.
The game could come down to 3rd down conversions. Ohio State has only converted 35.29% of it’s third downs with less than amazing competition. Notre Dame’s Defense has only allowed a 1st down on 31.67% of 3rd downs.
This will be the biggest game of Sam Hartman and Kyle McCord’s career. Who do you trust more, the super senior QB who has played against Clemson and Florida State or the first year starter who’s biggest game was at Indiana?
Ignore Notre Dame’s record against Top 10 opponents. They have the more experienced QB, they are better on 3rd down, and they’re at home.
I have been wrong about Ohio State every week on whether they cover. As a Buckeye alumnus I am picking Notre Dame to win. I hope I am wrong again!
The official pick will be ND to cover but if you are going to pick ND just go for the money line and get + odds.

Iowa (+14.5) at Penn State O/U: 40.5

The best game of the week that nobody outside of the Big Ten will watch.
This game will be a Penn State White out. Here are the last 6 totals from the White out games: 62, 48, 49, 53, 55, 45.
Penn State is 5-1 in those six games. The Nittany Lions are heavy favorites obviously. They would have covered 14 points twice of those 6 games.
Penn State’s going to score 20-30 points minimum. Iowa’s offense this year is…. fine? They have put up 20 points in every game this season. I expect them to have 13-20 points.
I get that two of the top 20 defenses in opponents ppg are playing each other. 40.5 is low for a Whiteout.
Even if Iowa scores 7 points and this is a blowout. Penn State could easily score 35 points. There are so many ways the over could hit. Don’t rule out some defensive touchdowns either! I like the points better than a large spread against a very good Iowa defense.

Akron (+17) at Indiana O/U: 46.5

The record might not show it but this IU team is much more competitive than you might think.
They were close to beating an undefeated Louisville. The Hoosiers played admirably in a terrible week 1 matchup against Ohio State. They beat up on an Indiana State team 41-7.
Akron should be another beatdown.
Akron lost to Kentucky 35-3 last week. The Zips lost to Temple 21-24 and the Owls lost to Rutgers by 29.
Indiana is 41st in OPPG despite already playing OSU.
Do you like the spread or the under better? IU ruined the under against ISU by themselves.
I don’t see enough offense from Akron to cover.

Minnesota (-11.5) at Northwestern O/U: 38.5

I’m not going to overthink this. Minnesota at -11.5 should be easy money.
Northwestern isn’t good!
I ran through all sorts of score combinations in my head and the under is tempting but surely it is too low right?
Minnesota’s offense sucks, but they are 12 points better than NW surely. The homefield advantage doesn’t matter to me as much at Ryan Field.
I happily will follow this game on my phone and not watch a down of it.

Game	Spread	O/U	Jordan’s Pick	Sean’s Pick
Wisconsin at Purdue	WISC -5.5	53.5	WISC -5.5	O53.5
Rutgers at Michigan	MICH -24.5	44.5	RUTG +24.5	RUTG +24.5**
Florida Atlantic at Illinois	ILL -15.5	45.5	U45.5	O45.5
Maryland at MSU	MD -7.5	52.5	MSU +7.5	U52.5**
LA Tech at Nebraska	NEB -19.5	47.5	U47.5	NEB -19.5
Ohio State at Notre Dame	OSU -3.5	55.5	ND +3.5	OSU -3.5
Iowa at Penn State	PSU -14.5	40.5	O40.5	IOWA +14.5**
Akron at Indiana	IU -17	45.5	IU -17	IU -17**
Minnesota at Northwestern	MINN -11.5	38.5	MINN -11.5	MINN -11.5**

**indicates Sean’s 5 Locks, featured weekly on The Floor Slap Podcast every Wednesday

Season Records to Date

Jordan: 19-16 (7-6 last week)

Sean: 22-13 (6-7 last week)

Consensus Picks: 7-4 (1-2 last week)

Sean’s Locks: 9-6 (1-4 last week)

Out of Conference Games to Watch

Jordan: Colorado (+21) at Oregon O/U: 70.5 // Oregon State (-2.5) at Washington St O/U: 56.5

The Colorado hype train is coming to Eugene this week. This game should be awesome as evidenced by the point total being 70.5. Colorado is overhyped 100%, but are they really three touchdowns worse than Oregon? I like Bo Nix and the Ducks to win but I expect the Buffs to cover. The best part about this game? The 3:30pm kickoff. A Pac-12 game before dark!

Oregon and Colorado isn’t the only primetime Pac-12 game this week either. Oregon State is heading to Pullman at 7pm on Saturday as another ranked matchup. This game will be the first true test for DJ Uiagalelei in the Beaver uniform. By the way, DJ won in the Klubnik/Dabo/Clemson divorce. I underestimated the Cougars against Wisconsin two weeks ago and that is scaring me away from the spread. I like over 56.5 points in this game. Washington State’s offense is capable, Oregon State’s is pretty sick, I don’t know if the Beaver defense can stop good teams, and overall I just think this game opens up. More on the Pac-12 in a second.

Sean: Florida State (-2.5) vs Clemson O/U: 55.5 // Ole Miss (+7) vs Alabama O/U: 55.5

Florida State has beaten Clemson in Death Valley only once since 2002. Clemson’s offensive ineptitude still scares me, but I believe in their defense. At the same time, the Seminoles will have the best player on the field when they have the ball with QB Jordan Travis. The Seminoles showed a lot of signs of a team that isn’t used to being hunted every single week. I don’t think they are ready to walk into this environment and cruise to a victory. I’m really interested to see how the Tiger offense has progressed and if Cade Klubnik is capable of going toe-to-toe with Travis if this turns into a track meet. I think this is a lower-scoring affair and Clemson cover +2.5 at home.

Alabama is switching back to Jalen Millroe at QB after a failed experiment against USF. Millroe was never the problem and can be a difference-maker if they turn to a run-oriented approach. But Ole Miss has been stout against the run. They give up some big plays in the pass game but hold opposing QBs to 54% completion. Jaxson Dart is the better quarterback but is going against a secondary that is much healthier than it was against Texas. But I just don’t feel confident in the Tide this year. Ole Miss has looked like the better team through three weeks and I’d pick them to win in a heartbeat if the helmets were switched. Ole Miss keeps it close, covers +7.5 at Alabama.

Jordan’s Hail Mary Parlay

Oregon State Washington State O/56.5
Colorado Oregon O/70.5
UCLA Utah U/51.5
USC cover -35.5 spread against Arizona State

Fanduel Odds: +1214

Last week’s Hail Mary Parlay hit the receiver in his hands he caught it and dropped it before entering the endzone Desean Jackson style. 3 of the 4 legs hit on the all points parlay and the 4th failed when Northern Illinois scored with 4 seconds left down a million.

Anyways, lets focus on the points again this week. We have an All Pac-12 parlay this week. The Pac-12 is the best conference in football this year and this a showcase week for them. I already mentioned I like the over in Pullman. I like Oregon to win in the 45-31 range of scores barely hitting the over. I like the under in Utah UCLA. Utah has been winning with defense and while Dante Moore and UCLA offense is gaining steam, Moore is still a Freshman in his biggest game ever. Finally, USC is awesome and Arizona State just lost to Fresno State 0-29. I’m not sure the Trojans can cover the 61.5 points by themselves but I like them to cruise by over 5 touchdowns to juice up this parlay.

Let’s complete this Hail Mary.

Sean’s Hail Mary Parlay

Auburn ML (+245) vs Texas A&M
Clemson ML (+112) vs Florida State
Washington State ML (+122) vs Oregon State

FanDuel Odds: +1524

There are few things I like to bet on more than whoever Texas A&M is playing. Perpetually the most overrated team in America, the Aggies aren’t a touchdown better than an Auburn team that already traveled to Cal and picked up a hard-earned victory. I’d usually pick Auburn to just cover but at nearly +250 odds, I can’t pass up a chance to profit off of A&M’s defeat.

I’m taking Clemson and Washington State for the same reason: they are home underdogs in games I both think are coin flips. Had I picked the favorites in those two games, the odds would drop to +900. Crazy things are bound to unfold in this loaded week 4 slate.

Prop Picks – Week 4

Prop Picks are released closer to kickoff of the games. Bookmark this page and follow us on twitter to stay up to date on the best props.

First Prop of the Week is Rushing over/unders for Purdue and Wisconsin.

One week after Syracuse QB Garrett Shrader ran for 195 yards on Purdue’s defense, Wisconsin and their mighty run attack visits West Lafayette. All three Wisconsin carriers have captured our attention. We have done Chez Mellusi the past two weeks and it’s been tight each time. We are going to pass on 59.5 yard line for Mellusi. Mordecai at 20.5 yards is tempting since he’s ran for 21 and 36 the past two weeks on 17 attempts, but we are locking in on Braelon Allen.

Allen is averaging a massive 7.1 yards per attempt with 12 attempts per game so far. I think Allen is going to get even more carries in a Big Ten game like this one. And if it’s working, I think the Badgers will stick to it. Allen’s line is sitting way too low at 74.5 and we are locking in the over for our first prop of the week.

Kyle Monangai Anytime Touchdown +260

We both like Rutgers to cover today so let’s pick a matching prop bet. Scarlet Knights RB Kyle Monangai already has 357 yards and 5 touchdowns. He has had one every game and had 3 last week against Virginia Tech. If Rutgers is going to score, it is very likely be Monangai. The odds being at +240 is too high not to take, especially when you see Michigan has four players ahead in the odds and Blake Corum is at -430.

Nathan Carter ALT Rush Yards O/90 +126

Maryland’s defense hasn’t seen a running back as good as Nathan Carter. The Spartan back has had 17,18 and 19 carries in his three games. After a disappointing showing against Washington, Michigan State might lean even more on Carter and the run game to get right at home today. He has all the opportunity to have a big day against an untested Maryland defense. Even one big play could make this an easy hit.

Sam Hartman U/244.5 (-114) and Kyle McCord O/1.5 Passing TDs (-144)

Hartman is averaging 265 yards a game so far against scrubs. Ohio State’s passing defense has been awesome and they’re pass rush hasn’t been playing to potential. In a big game like this I expect the Buckeyes to show up in a big way. I think Notre Dame will lean more on Audric Estime and the run game where they might be a little more effective and manage the clock. Under seems smart if Ohio State doesn’t give up any bombs.

After being hesitant week 1, McCord has thrown three touchdowns each of the pas two weeks. Marvin Harrison Jr. is basically guaranteed to get 1 touchdown as their connection is strong and because he is so just too good. In general, Notre Dame has not seen the talent that Ohio State has at WR and don’t forget about Cade Stover at TE (+240 anytime TD). McCord will need to throw in this game and he looks better and better each game. Parlay Hartman under and McCord’s over for +244.

Sean’s 5 Locks

Sean releases his 5 locks every Wednesday on The Floor Slap Podcast. The podcast recaps all the Big Ten games, gives out Helmet stickers to the best performers, previews the next weeks games and more. Follow The Floor Slap Podcast anywhere where you listen to podcasts!

The Floor Slap’s Big Ten Betting Guide – Week 4