The season-opening showdown in Dublin, Ireland offered great insight into how the Big Ten West will shake out in 2022.
Player of the Game: QB Ryan Hilinski
There was a lot to like from Northwestern, who seems to have put their disastrous 2021 season completely behind them. But nothing was more surprising than the play of Ryan Hilinski.
For the first time in his career, the #2 Pro QB from the ’19 class is playing under the same offensive system with the same coaching staff for the second consecutive year. After failing to meet expectations through his first three collegiate seasons, that familiarity seems to have done wonders for his development.
Hilinski was nearly perfect in the first half, going 20-23 for 216 yards and a couple TDs. Although he cooled off in the second half (7-15 for 98 yards), he did the one thing that Casey Thompson was unable to do for Nebraska: take care of the football. Hilinski and the Wildcat offense committed zero turnovers and gave up only one sack and two TFLs.
Credit is also due to a tremendous performance by Northwestern’s offensive line. After not being able to muster much on the ground in the 1st half, Northwestern finished with 214 rushing yards and gave up virtually no pressure on Hilinski.
Although you can’t expect Hilinski to have a clean pocket on virtually every drop-back this season, this could be one of the best offensive lines Pat Fitzgerald has had in his entire tenure. And if Ryan Hilinski can play with the poise and accuracy he displayed on Saturday, Northwestern could be a legitimate threat to win the West.
Play of the Game: Nebraska’s Onside Kick
With 9 minutes remaining in the 3rd quarter, Nebraska held a 28-17 lead and had all the momentum on their side. Thanks to an incredible 3rd down scramble by Casey Thompson, a long TD run by JUCO-transfer RB Anthony Grant, and a fumble by Northwestern RB Cam Porter, Nebraska seemed poised to cruise to a season-opening win.
Scott Frost, seemingly disgusted at the idea of getting an easy victory, decided to change that with an inexplicable onside kick call. As he so eloquently put it after the game: “In hindsight, it didn’t work.” Northwestern scored 5 plays later, secured the momentum, and never looked back. Nebraska was outscored 14-0 after that kick.
There were a lot of things that went wrong in the last quarter and a half that led to Nebraska’s blown 11-point lead. They were getting dominated in the trenches, Casey Thompson seemed to have been replaced by his less-talented doppelganger at half time, and their receivers weren’t making the plays they were in the first half.
But momentum is everything in football. Nebraska fans can’t help but wonder what would have happened if they didn’t hand Northwestern the momentum in the 3rd quarter.
Nebraska: 3 takeaways
The Offense Still Has a Chance to Be Great
Despite what we saw from Casey Thompson in the second half (8/18, 127 yards, 2 INT), there was still a lot to like from this offense. Considering how many new faces from the transfer portal Nebraska had to rely on, their first two and a half quarters of play were impressive.
In a crowded running back room, Anthony Grant (the #1 JUCO transfer from this past season) seems to have emerged as the leader. He had 101 yards and a couple TDs on 19 carries and added a 16-yard reception. Although unspectacular outside of his 46-yard TD scamper, Grant should get more comfortable in this offense as the year goes on. He has the potential to be the most productive running back Nebraska has had under Scott Frost.
Nebraska also seems to have a solid trio of receivers in Isaiah Garcia-Castaneda, Trey Palmer, and TE Travis Vokolek. Vokolek put up 5 catches for 63 yards before exiting the game late in the first half – a loss that surely impacted the Huskers’ second-half performance. He said after the game that it was a minor ankle injury and that “he’d be fine” moving forward. Castaneda and Palmer also combined for 12 catches for 188 yards and a TD.
With so many new faces on this offense, they should only improve as the season goes on. If Casey Thompson can be the QB he was in the first half (17/24, 228 yards, 1 TD) and the offensive line can continue to develop, Nebraska shouldn’t struggle to put up points moving forward.
There’s a Lot to Worry About on Defense
The only sure things about this Husker defense in 2022 were linebackers Luke Reimer and Nick Henrich. After 1 game, the questions along the defensive line and in the secondary are only larger.
Early on, the front-seven looked stout. They were swarming Northwestern at the point of attack and were not giving up chunks of yardage. However, they continued to get worn down as the game went on. Northwestern went on a drive of 13 plays to finish the first half with a TD. They also had 11-play and 9-play drives to help close out Nebraska in the second half.
The biggest concern was on Northwestern’s final drive of the game. It was 9 plays, and all 9 plays were runs. They did not disguise anything, either. Everyone and their mother knew they were running the ball, and they were still able to make it 53 yards.
Not only did Nebraska’s defensive line get dominated in the run game, but they failed to get any pressure of Ryan Hilinski. Credit to Northwestern’s offensive line, but this was still a unit that gave up 29 sacks in 2021. The fact that Nebraska was so thoroughly dominated is deeply concerning.
Finally, the secondary inspired just as little hope as the defensive line. While it didn’t help that Hilinski had a clean pocket every time he dropped back, he was rarely fitting the ball into tight windows. Again, credit to Northwestern for an efficient and disciplined performance. But Nebraska did give up over 500 yards of offense to a team that averaged 322 last year.
While I still have hope that the Nebraska offense can become great, there was very little to like about their defensive performance on Saturday.
Scott Frost Has One More Chance to Keep His Job
To be honest, I’m surprised Scott Frost wasn’t left in Ireland. Everyone is calling for his job and rightfully so. It appears Nebraska hasn’t fixed any of the problems that led to a disastrous 3-9 record in 2021.
But let’s not forget: this was the first game of the season for a team with a lot of turnover and a lot of new coaches. As much as this game stings, Nebraska actually has the perfect opportunity to turn this around.
Nebraska should be able to get back on track with easy wins against North Dakota and Georgia Southern. Then, Oklahoma comes to Lincoln.
The Sooners are dealing with their own mass-exodus of players and coaches from the 2021 season. They are opening with UTEP and Kent State, so they won’t be as tested as Nebraska.
I certainly wouldn’t bet on Nebraska pulling off the upset after what they showed on Saturday. But they have two weeks to improve and work out their offensive and defensive issues. If they are able to upset a top-10 Oklahoma team at home, everyone will forget about this heartbreaking loss. But if they fall, Scott Frost might not make it to October as the Nebraska head coach.
Northwestern: 3 Takeaways
They Have a Trio of Game-Breaking Skill Players
Evan Hull was the name to know entering the season after putting up 1,273 total yards and 9 TDs in 2021. He seems to have only gotten better, putting up 119 yards and a TD on 5.4 ypc while also adding 5 receptions for 55 yards. However, the do-it-all back was far from the only star on offense.
Cam Porter stepped up into a complimentary role and thrived, racking up 94 yards and a TD on 4.9 ypc. He did have a costly fumble in the 3rd quarter that led to 7 points for Nebraska, but Northwestern showed confidence in the youngster by giving him the ball on the ensuing drive. Together, Porter and Hull might be one of the Big Ten’s best running back duos in 2022.
What the Wildcat offense was really missing was a true number one receiver for Hilinski to rely on. They seem to have that in senior Malik Washington. He had a solid 2021 season with 578 yards and a couple TDs, but he seems to have taken a step forward this year. Washington was Hilinski’s security blanket, hauling in 8 catches for 97 yards.
Northwestern’s offensive improvement was inevitable after a horrendous 2021 season. But with these three players and a vastly improved Ryan Hilinski at QB, the Wildcat offense looks better than anyone could have hoped for.
Northwestern Looks Impressive in the Trenches
As mentioned earlier, this was an offensive line that struggled mightily in 2021. They gave up 29 sacks and paved the way for less than 150 rush yards per game. They only lost one starter from last year and Pat Fitzgerald said in the off-season this might be the best offensive line he’s had at Northwestern.
I was certainly skeptical, but who am I to doubt Fitzgerald. Their offensive line looked great, as Ryan Hilinski consistently threw from clean pockets and Hull & Robinson gashed the Nebraska defensive front as the game went on.
Defensively, it was much of the same. Nebraska was only able to gain 110 yards on 31 carries. Much of that came on Anthony Grant’s 46 yard TD run in the 3rd quarter. If you remove that run, Northwestern only allowed 2.1 yards per carry. Nebraska simply could not gain any traction on the ground.
Northwestern will certainly face teams with more talent on the offensive and defensive lines. But the sheer dominance they displayed over a team that was picked by some to win the West bodes well for a Northwestern team that hopes to at least double their win total from last year.
Northwestern is a Legitimate BIG West Contender
It is no secret that the Big Ten West is going to be an extremely close race that likely stretches to the final week of the season. As well-coached and fundamentally-sound as any team in the conference, the Wildcats officially threw their hat in the race.
Outside of Purdue’s Aidan O’Connell, many of the Big Ten West teams lack a truly reliable QB. If Saturday’s performance was any indication, Hilinski could have jumped Casey Thompson, Graham Mertz, and Tanner Morgan as the West’s second-best QB.
With so many teams contending for the division title, anywhere from 7-9 wins could be good enough to get to Indianapolis. a 7-5 or 8-4 season certainly looks within reach for Northwestern.
However, I am still not close to putting Northwestern in with Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota, and Purdue as a “favorite” to win the West. Mainly because Northwestern draws Ohio State, Penn State, and Maryland from the East. They have a seven-game stretch of Penn State, Wisconsin, Maryland, Iowa, Ohio State, Minnesota, and Purdue from October to November. Only two of those seven games are at home.
Although Northwestern looks the part of a Big Ten West contender, their schedule is going to make that hard to become reality.