by Jordan Beckley and Sean Szymczak
We had another amazing week of College Football. Crazy how every weekend delivers.
If you were a Big Ten fan watching a night game on Saturday, you probably were confident that you watched the best game of the night.
Between Indiana’s ridiculous 4OT win over Akron ending on the 2PT Conversion rules, Minnesota’s epic 21-point lead collapse and Ben Bryant’s coming out party in an overtime win for Northwestern, Penn State blanking Iowa in the Whiteout, and Chip Trayanum’s literal last second Touchdown for the Buckeyes win in South Bend, it was a great night of television.
It was not a great night for the bank account as everyone of those games caused us to miss some bets. I started at 4-1 and ended 5-4 on the week after Iowa was incapable of scoring points, Minnesota falling apart and Indiana not putting away Akron. Sean had it a little rougher as all those decisions went the wrong way too and he wasn’t 4-1 heading in. Sean’s picks ended at 3-6 bringing his Big Ten picks to 56.82% for the season.
Here’s a look at where our picks stand 1 month in:
Sean and I both are hanging right around our goal of 55% correct for all our Big Ten picks. If we keep it up we will be profitable.
Sean’s Locks are sitting right at 55% at 11/20. Our consensus picks are 57% at 8/14 again over the 55% threshold. So far, we know Big Ten better than out of conference going 5/16 (31.25%). Finally, our Prop picks are doing well at 57%. We have hit 12-21 and probably reached on a few along the way.
Overall, we have been hitting the benchmarks needed to grow our FanDuel wallet. Let’s keep it up!
Picking Every Big Ten Game – Week 5
We are officially into Bye Weeks! Wisconsin and Ohio State are both on bye after big road wins. So, we only have seven Big Ten games to pick this week. With five of those being conference games, we will start to suss out who sucks and who is actually good.
**RUTGERS DOESN”T HAVE A LINE YET**
Louisiana (+12.5) at Minnesota O/U: 47.5
- One week after being 11.5 point favorites to Northwestern, Minnesota is 12.5 favorites over the Ragin’ Cajuns.
- Louisiana is on it’s backup QB in Zeon Chriss after an injury to starter Ben Wooldridge. Chriss is 2-0 so far showing a good bit of skill as a dual threat.
- Can any of the Ragin’ Cajun running options cause this Minnesota Defense trouble?
- Ben Bryant threw for 396 yards and 4 TDs last week. He had a total of 408 yards and 2 TDs in the three games before Minnesota.
- Minnesota’s defense has been inconsistent so far between good performances against Nebraska and Eastern Michigan and bad ones against UNC and Northwestern.
- I don’t trust Minnesota anymore.
- The safe pick is Minnesota to cover. Louisiana can put up points and if Minnesota and Athan Kaliakmanis aren’t careful this game could be closer than it should be.
- I’ll go with an over.
Penn State (-25.5) at Northwestern O/U: 46.5
- Not going to waste time here
- Between Penn State (5th in Oppg), Ohio State (2nd in Oppg) and Michigan (1st in Oppg), the Big Ten has some of the scariest defenses in football.
- Minnesota crumbled to Northwestern. Penn State won’t.
- Give me a hard under 46.5 here. Penn State has scored 30, 31, and 38 in their three Power-5 games so far. I don’t think Northwestern gets more than one touchdown. If the over hits it will be because of Penn State.
Michigan (-17.5) at Nebraska O/U: 41
- I’m leaning away from the spreads so far.
- After the past two weeks some of the big spreads are scaring me away.
- I want to pick the under, but Heinrich Haarberg has brought a competence to the Nebraska offense.
- Nebraska’s rush defense has allowed less than 200 total yards through 4 games. Enter Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards.
- If this line were below 17, I would feel better picking Michigan. If it were 21 points I would feel better picking Nebraska.
- 41 seems just about right on the total. Is it going to be a Michigan 27-14 game? Or will it be 31-10 like all their other games so far?
- Let’s go with Michigan covering.
Illinois (+1.5) at Purdue O/U: 53.5
- This is a game of “who feels worse about their QB?”
- Luke Altmyer and Hudson Card have shown their abilities this year, but their mistakes have been costly and memorable. Can either of them get on track in this game?
- New Purdue coach Ryan Walters gets to compete against his former boss in Bret Bielema.
- Purdue is 0-3 at home this year, so don’t be afraid of the home team advantage.
- Both teams really need a win if they want to make a bowl game.
- I like Illinois here. Their defense seems to be coming together again. I kind of think Purdue might suck too.
- ***If you’re scared to pick the winner, the total seems high to me. I like Illinois defense to keep Purdue quiet.***
Indiana (+14.5) at Maryland O/U: 50.5
- Maryland is 4-0 and has won all of them by 18+ points.
- Indiana kept it competitive with Louisville and Ohio State, but they haven’t had a true road game yet.
- Taulia Tagovailoa and Maryland’s offense should be a real challenge for an IU pass defense that has done pretty well so far
- Roman Hemby couldn’t do anything against MSU. Can he get himself right this game?
- Tayven Jackson struggled against Akron after a couple solid weeks. Maryland has done well against inexpereinced QBs the past two weeks. Could this be 3?
- Indiana has had one game end regulation time above 35 points and that was against Indiana State.
- Maryland has been above 50.5 two of their four games. One Over was UVA who has a much worse defense than IU. One Under was Towson where they benched Taulia after taking a big lead.
- Maryland to cover and the under are our picks.
Michigan State (+11.5) at Iowa O/U: 36.5
- Iowa had a very disappointing showing against Penn State. Michigan State is coming off two disappointing showings.
- Here’s the difference, Iowa is a good team and Michigan State isn’t one.
- I don’t know if the Spartans have it. Noah Kim could be good but it doesn’t seem like it will be this year. Interim HC Harlon Barnett announced Kim would still be the starter. I’m not sure Nathan Carter is enough for Michigan State to beat good teams.
- I don’t think there is enough fight in the Spartans to be able to keep it close against Iowa.
- I expect Iowa’s defense to shut down an inconsistent MSU offense and the offense to want to bounce back from being shut out.
| Game | Spread | O/U | Jordan’s Picks | Sean’s Picks |
| Louisiana at Minnesota | MINN -11.5 | 48.5 | O48.5 | ULL +11.5** |
| Penn State at Northwestern | PSU -27.5 | 46.5 | U46.5 | NW +27.5 |
| Michigan at Nebraska | MICH -17.5 | 39.5 | MICH -17.5 | NEB +17.5** |
| Illinois at Purdue | PURD -1.5 | 53.5 | ILL +1.5 | ILL +1.5** |
| Indiana at Maryland | MD -14 | 50.5 | U50.5 | MD -14** |
| Michigan State at Iowa | IOWA -12.5 | 36.5 | IOWA -12.5 | MSU +12.5** |
| Wagner at Rutgers | N/A | N/A |
Out-of-Conference Games to Watch
Jordan: Florida (+2.5) at Kentucky O/U: 45.5 // LSU (-3) at Ole Miss O/U: 65.5
This week neither of us is picking the Colorado game! Probably deserved after that first half in Eugene. Still +920 moneyline at home against USC??? No, stop it. There are other teams to discuss.
Let’s take a trip down south. We have two games between four likely fake contenders in Florida at Kentucky and LSU at Ole Miss. The South promises that these games mean more than games like Iowa at Minnesota and Wisconsin at Maryland. I don’t see much difference.
Florida is 2.5 dogs against a Kentucky team with NC-State transfer Devin Leary taking over for Will Levis. This has all the makings of Kentucky winning and jumping up too high in the rankings. Yet, Florida +118 Money Line is calling my name. Being a Big Ten fan I should know better than betting on Graham Mertz, but he isn’t the guy who will win this game. UK’s run defense hasn’t given up 100 yards in a game yet. Florida has a group of RBs who should make that happen. It came down to do I hate Mertz or Kentucky’s schedule more? I think Mertz can do enough and Leary has made some mistakes against bad competition already.
In Game 2, I just think that Ole Miss ain’t it. I think that they’re a mid team that has been propped up a bit. LSU might be propped up in the same way but I believe in Jayden Daniels more than Jaxson Dart. I think Ole Miss is a 7-5 team that just started off ranked. LSU might only be a 9-3 team after how much they’ve struggled at home to Arkansas and being blown out by Florida State, but I have them winning this game. Let’s get weird here and do an alternate spread of LSU -5.5 at +146. If you are even more confident than me -6.5 is +176 and -7.5 is +220 if you believe LSU can win by more than a Touchdown.
Sean: Notre Dame (-5.5) at Duke O/U: 51.5 // Kansas (+17.5) at Texas O/U: 61.5
There are two ways this Notre Dame game can play out: the Irish can be deflated and come out flat in a tough environment and lose. OR Marcus Freeman will have them ready to play. Notre Dame is the better team, plain and simple. I believe in Coach Freeman as a recruiter, strategist, and most importantly as a motivator. I don’t think Duke’s defensive front is good enough to challenge Notre Dame’s offensive line (who found their rhythm in the 2nd half against Ohio State). After all, Duke gave up over 200 rush yards at over 5 ypc in their one test of the season vs Clemson. Riley Leonard is for real and the Blue Devils should be able to keep this one close for a while. But Notre Dame should dominate the line of scrimmage and end up winning by at least a touchdown. Notre Dame covers -5.5 on the road and gets back on track to a potential CFP appearance.
Jalon Daniels is as exciting of a QB as there is in college football and Kansas is a legitimate top-25 caliber team this season. That being said, they haven’t faced a team like Texas yet. Like Notre Dame, Texas should be able to dominate this game along the line of scrimmage. The Longhorns are shutting down the opposing run game, but they are a little susceptible through the air. I like Jalon Daniels’ ability to extend plays with his legs in this game. I think Kansas will be able to put up points. But I just don’t think they have what it takes to slow down an explosive Texas offense that is also taking care of the football. The line at 16.5 is too tough to call. I think this game will be decided somewhere between 14-21 points. But I like the over at 61.5. This should be a fun game to watch.
bc
Jordan’s Hail Mary Parlay
- Louisville -3.5 at NC State
- Under 44.5 in Utah Oregon State game
- Syracuse ML over Clemson at home
Fanduel Odds: +1092
I don’t get how this is +1092.
Louisville is 4-0 with wins over Georgia Tech, Indiana and Boston College. NC State barely beat UVA last week who is quite bad if you didn’t know.
Utah is 4-0 and has given up less than 10 ppg with games against Florida, UCLA, and Baylor. No word on if Cam Rising will be back yet. I like the no. 6 defense in the country to keep it going against a Oregon State team who could be tired after a short week and a barn burner with Washington State.
Syracuse is 4-0 and Garrett Shrader is probably the best QB nobody knows by name. Clemson looked impressive against Florida State. So did Boston College. I’m going with the home team with the better QB and potentially the better defense too.
Sean’s Hail Mary Parlay
- Syracuse ML (+210) vs Clemson
- LSU ML (-144) vs Ole Miss
- Colorado (+21.5) vs USC
- Illinois ML (-110) vs Purdue
Fanduel Odds: +1782
I’m riding with Jordan on the Cuse moneyline. I thought they deserved to be favorites coming into this week. I knew they wouldn’t be, but I was shocked to see the spread all the way up near 7. Last week was such a demoralizing loss for the Tigers and they will be walking into a raucous environment to play a team that has given them some trouble in recent years. I’m rolling with the better QB, the more balanced offense, the team playing with momentum, at home.
Since Lane Kiffin came to Ole Miss, he is king of beating the bad teams he is supposed to beat and sleep-walking through games against quality opponents. I can forgive LSU for a tight win against Arkansas – those teams always play entertaining games. I expect to see the team that tore Mississippi State apart a couple weeks ago. LSU is simply the more talented and better coached team.
Oregon was built perfectly to beat the brakes off of Colorado. But USC doesn’t play defense like the Ducks do. Colorado should be able to hang with the Trojans in a game that should be an absolute track meet.
Check out The Floor Slap podcast on more of my thoughts on this game and the other Big Ten action. But this game essentially boils down to scheduling. Illinois had their “get right” game last week. Purdue hasn’t had the opportunity to get that yet. I trust Luke Altmyer to avoid mistakes more than Hudson Card, and I trust Brett Beilema as a coach in 2023 more than Ryan Walters. Illini win.
Prop Picks – Week 5
Prop Picks are released closer to kickoff of the games. Bookmark this page and follow us on twitter and we will circle back.
Sean’s 5 Locks
The locks are going to be tighter fits with only 6 games to bet this week. You can hear all of Sean’s locks on the Floor Slap Podcast released every Wednesday. Follow it where ever you listen to your podcasts!