by Jordan Beckley and Sean Szymczak
Since when did we start calling Bye Weeks as teams being “idle?”
This week I really noticed how the broadcasts were saying teams on bye like Ohio State were “idle this week.” Do we really need another term for bye week?
I get that week 0 teams like Notre Dame will have two bye weeks and some teams will only have one but was anyone getting confused by a 2nd bye week that we had to call it being idle?
Anyways, Sean and I were idle this week as we had personal matters to attend to. Between the two of us, we had a family wedding, a family funeral, a couple’s vacation, a car crash, and a birthday party this weekend so we didn’t get to post any props this week.
Ok, not all of those things happened to us. Go ahead and guess which ones actually did though in the comments.
Still, it was perhaps for the better that we were idle and didn’t put in any props. It was a frustrating weekend as Jordan went 2-4 and Sean went 3-3 in our Big Ten picks. Razor thin covers for Louisiana, Penn State and Michigan State while every single over hit busted up our picks.
Seriously, when was the last time every Big Ten game went over?
We aren’t going to discuss our 0-4 week in the non-conference. Like Bill Belichik with Mac Jones, we are onto next week. So, let’s make sure we aren’t idle this week and make some money.
Picking Every Big Ten Game – Week 6
We have Penn State going idle this week after starting 3-0 in conference, while Indiana and Michigan State get a much needed breather after a tough couple weeks.
So, we have 6 games to pick and 5 of them are conference games. The only non-conference game is Howard at Northwestern. Unsurprisingly, that game doesn’t have a line.
Sean will have to put a lock pick on all of his picks this week. Let’s pick wisely.
Nebraska (+3.5) at Illinois O/U: 43.5
- This will be a litmus test game for both teams.
- Nebraska has been better since benching Sims, but maybe they could’ve won their two previous games with him starting too. After being embarrassed in Lincoln by Michigan, Matt Rhule and co. will look to bounce back.
- We were both convinced that Illinois was going to beat up Purdue last week and uh well that didn’t happen.
- Now, both the Illini and the Huskers are the only teams without a Big Ten win in the West.
- At first glance, is it a little surprising that Illinois is favored?
- I get it Illinois is at home. Nebraska lost by a million at home to Michigan and lost to a bad Minnesota team so far. But, are we sure Illinois doesn’t suck?
- Illinois has talent to have a good defense but the Kansas and Purdue game make you question the legitimacy to the ability on paper.
- Going back to last year Illinois and Bielema are 1-7 against Power 5 opponents
- Ok but what about the Colorado and Michigan game for Nebraska? Well, do you believe in Nebraska’s Defense or Illinois defense more? And do you believe in Kansas/Purdue’s offense more or Michigan/Colorado’s offense more.
- Before you get excited about betting an under for two bad teams, 6/10 games these teams have played would have hit the over and a few more are less than a FG from being overs.
- Illinois has been good not great against the run. Heinrich Haarberg will have to make some plays for Nebraska, but I believe in him more than Luke Altmyer.
Maryland (+19.5) at Ohio State O/U: 58.5
- Here are the margins of victory for Ohio State the four times the Terps have come to the Shoe: 49, 59, 48 & 21.
- Is this the best Maryland team that has played in Columbus? Probably.
- Is this a terrible matchup for Maryland? Yes.
- I like Ohio State to cover. I think Ohio State’s backfield will be the first to really open up the Maryland defense. Once they do Kyle McCord will have opportunities for Emeka Egbuka and MHJ to make backbreaking plays.
- The over seems easy, but are we sure even Taulia Tagovailoa can score points against this Ohio State defense?
- Maryland might be the 4th best team in the Big Ten this year. The upset isn’t this week. Keep an eye on Penn State (the week before the Michigan game) and Michigan (the week before the Ohio State game) as the upset pick.
Rutgers (+14) at Wisconsin O/U: 44.5
- Wisconsin were big winners after being “idle” this past week. Iowa and Minnesota looked beatable, Illinois, Northwestern and Nebraska got crushed, and the Big Ten team they beat in Purdue looked a lot better.
- Now Wisconsin is the obvious favorite in the West. Or are they?
- Tanner Mordecai has only thrown for 876 yards, 2 TDs and 3 INTs. Chez Mellusi is out for the season. Can Braelon Allen completely carry this offense?
- A potentially Big Ten West deciding matchup is looming with Iowa next week. Could they be looking ahead?
- All that to say if this moves to above two touchdowns take Rutgers. Right now, I like the over.
- All 4 of Wisconsin’s games would hit the over and half of Rutgers have.
- This Scarlet Knights team should score enough to make the over hit.
Purdue (+1.5) at Iowa O/U: 39.5
- Iowa escaped Michigan State this past week. A late Cooper DeJean punt return TD made it seem more Iowa-friendly than the standoff it really was.
- Purdue looked awesome against Illinois last week and now the Boilers are only FG dogs to the Hawkeyes who might have lost Cade McNamara for the season.
- Does it matter that McNamara is gone though?
- Long term: of course yes. For Iowa to cover in this game: no probably not
- Deacon Hill stepped in for McNamara and went 11-27 for 115 yds / 1TD / 1 INT.
- You can run on Purdue and expect Iowa to lean heavily on that.
- This final score could be really weird. Base instinct is to bet the under with Iowa and a backup might make it a lock for many people, but Purdue has been a points team most of the season.
- I’m taking Iowa to cover, but if Coach Walters escapes Kinnick with a win it will once again be time to recalibrate expectations for Purdue.
Michigan (-19.5) at Minnesota O/U: 46.5
- This points line is all about how much you think Michigan will score.
- I don’t see Minnesota scoring more than two field goals.
- Will Michigan’s offense keep it rolling after scoring 45 against Nebraska?
- I’m not sure. I am sure that Minnesota is not a good team.
- Michigan by 21 is a get it now line.
| Game | Spread | O/U | Jordan’s Pick | Sean’s Pick |
| Nebraska at Illinois | ILL -3.5 | 43.5 | NEB +3.5 | NEB +3.5** |
| Maryland at OSU | OSU -18.5 | 57.5 | OSU -18.5 | U57.5** |
| Rutgers at Wisconsin | WISC -14 | 44.5 | O44.5 | U44.5** |
| Purdue at Iowa | IOWA -2.5 | 39.5 | IOWA -2.5 | PURD +2.5** |
| Michigan at Minnesota | MICH -18.5 | 45.5 | MICH -18.5 | MICH -18.5** |
Records to Date:
Jordan: 26-24 (2-4 last week)
Sean: 28-22 (3-3)
Consensus Picks: 8-7
Sean’s Locks: 14-11
Out of Conference Games to Watch
Jordan: Oklahoma (+6.5) vs Texas O/U 59.5 // Washington St (+3.5) at UCLA O/U: 58.5
I am trying to get some money back here. My Out-of-Conference record has been abysmal. I think I have two slam-dunks here.
I think Texas is a wagon and that OU is a fraud. Simple as that. I’ll take Quinn Ewers, Jonathon Brooks, Adonai Mitchell and the Longhorns to cover by a touchdown. With these offenses that over is oh so enticing, but no let’s focus.
Pick 2 is a Washington State team that should be favored at UCLA. I get it, the Cougars are on the road. Ask Georgia how tough road games can be. Still, Cameron Ward is too good for this to be a trap. If you believe in transitive explanations Wazzu beat Oregon State who beat Utah who beat UCLA.
My tiers in the Pac12 are:
- Tier 1 Washington, USC, Oregon
- Tier 2 Washington State, Utah, Oregon State
- Tier 3 UCLA, Colorado
- Tier 4 Everyone else
Anyways, Washington State Money line is my official pick. Thanks for coming to my TED talk.
Sean: Alabama (-1.5) vs Texas A&M O/U: 46.5 // Fresno St (-6.5) vs Wyoming O/U: 43.5
The Aggies have had the Tide’s number under Jimbo Fisher, knocking them off in 2021 and coming within a play of another upset last year. A&M will lean on a pass-rush that has emerged as the strength of the football team. Even though Alabama’s offensive line isn’t quite as dominant as in year’s past, Millroe has all the tools to escape pressure and extend plays. He’s been much more efficient since re-earning the starting role and I trust him to take care of the football in this matchup. Besides, Texas A&M is 110th nationally with a -4 turnover margin while Alabama is 18th at +4. This should be an ugly, tight game much like last year. That’s the type of game that favors the Crimson Tide. I like the under in this game, but my official pick is for Alabama to win and cover by the skin of their teeth.
And how about some love for the G5 schools? No one is talking about this matchup, but it might be the most impactful G5 matchup of the year. Fresno State is the early favorite to grab the NY6 bid after impressive victories over Purdue and Arizona State. But they go up against a scrappy Wyoming (4-1) squad that likes to churn out yards on the ground and control the clock – unlike the opponents Fresno has faced to date. The line opened up around a field goal but has ballooned to nearly a touchdown. Over 80% of bets and 90% of money are on the Bulldogs to cover, and I usually like to fade the public. Wyoming can be a difficult place to play and I expect the Cowboys to throw off the rhythm of a Fresno offense that has been clicking so far this season. Fresno State squeaks out the win to stay undefeated, but Wyoming covers +6.5
Jordan’s Hail Mary Parlay
I am changing up my formula here. I am going to do a Hail Mary Parlay with TD props that I will release the day of the games. Stay tuned.
Ok. Update time. I found my Same Game Parlay for this week.
After weeding through Rutgers Wisconsin and OSU Maryland and not loving the odds, I stumbled upon Notre Dame Louisville.
A couple things jumped out at me. The Over at 53.5 seemed high. Notre Dame has had totals of 31 and 35 the past two weeks. It has been a tough two weeks and Notre Dame likely won’t be looking to get in a track race game.
Louisville has point totals of 35 (IU) and 23 (NC State) recently. Ignore the Georgia Tech and Boston College game for now.
I like the under is what I am saying. Especially since Vegas thinks it will be close with Notre Dame being 6.5 favorites. I’ll take that too.
Oh and throw on Audric Estime and Jawhar Jordan anytime TDs too. Estime seems like a layup and that is why his odds are south of -300. But, Jawhar Jordan has had 6 rush TDs and 1 receiving TD and has scored in every game but NC State. His score pushes this parlay to +1285.
- Under 53.5
- ND -6.5
- Estime ATTS
- Jordan ATTS
Fanduel odds: +1285
Sean’s Hail Mary Parlay
- Alabama ML (-120) vs Texas A&M
- Purdue ML (+112) vs Iowa
- Nebraska ML (+136) vs Illinois
- Washington State ML (+138) vs UCLA
Fanduel Odds: +2083
Maybe one day I’ll learn that parlays with odds over +2000 don’t usually hit. But today is not that day. A&M has a good chance at pulling off the upset this weekend. But I’ve learned my lesson about betting against Saban when people are doubting his team. At -120, Alabama ML feels like a steal.
Check out our podcast below for more insights into the Purdue vs Iowa & Nebraska vs Illinois matchups. I love the road teams to get the upset win in both cases.
As for Washington State, I am a huge Cam Ward fan. He is playing as well as anyone in the country right now and UCLA hasn’t seen anything close to this level of talent at the position. Utah, San Diego State, and Coastal Carolina simply weren’t able to test the Bruins’ defense. But on the other hand, this UCLA offense can also score. Utah smothered them, but that’s one of the best defenses in the country. Washington State isn’t exactly that, as Oregon State was able to rip through the middle of that defense. But in a high-scoring affair, I lean on the side with the better QB. Washington State wins in an instant classic.
Prop Picks
- Heinrich Haarberg Anytime TD Scorer (+175)
- Illinois’ defense has not been good against the run or pass this year. They’re giving up 180 rush yards per game and allowed a combined 7 rush TDs against Purdue, Penn State, & Kansas. The Huskers will try to pound the rock and Haarberg’s legs have proven to be the centerpiece of their offense. If Nebraska scores 2 TDs on the ground (which seems like a good bet), Heinrich Haarberg will almost certainly be one of them. He had a rush TD in each of his first two starts.
- Luke Altmyer O186.5 Pass Yards (-114)
- The Husker’s secondary is famously susceptible. And for all the struggles the Illini have gone through this year, Altmyer has at least proven to be able to push the ball downfield and make a few impressive throws every game. I don’t anticipate Illinois sitting on a lead for the majority of the game and I also don’t think they will be able to run the ball very effectively. Altmyer should have plenty of volume to get to 200 pass yards.
- Deacon Hill U0.5 Pass TDs (+194)
- Yeah, I’m gonna fade the Iowa QB who’s completed 43% of his passes so far this season. The 3-3-5 defense won’t be an easy defense to dissect in his first start. Even though Purdue’s pass defense is susceptible, they are able to get after the QB. And Iowa’s offensive line is a major problem. I foresee an uncomfortable day for Deacon Hill on Saturday.
- Jonathan Brooks 2+ TDs (+220)
- Texas’ Brooks has been averaging 163 rush yards per game at over 8 ypc over the past three contests. I believe in Dillon Gabriel and this Sooner offense, but I still have serious doubts about the defenses’ ability to slow down the Longhorns’ balanced attack. Brooks has scored 2 TDs in each of the past two games and should have plenty of opportunities in what should be a high-scoring affair.
- Sam Hartman O249.5 Pass Yards (-114)
- The last time Hartman re-matched against an old ACC foe, he put up 286 pass yards against NC State – a comparable pass defense. Louisville’s defense may be able to slow down Audric Estime and the Irish rushing attack. I think this is a Hartman game.
Props for Saturday’s games are released within 24 hours of kickoff
The Floor Slap Podcast
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