Previewing the 2023-24 Illinois Basketball Season
In the month of October, The Floor Slap will be launching our College Basketball Preview. We will be previewing all 14 Big Ten Teams, making predictions, covering the biggest storylines across the country and more! Follow @thefloorslap to stay up to date on all our Basketball coverage before the season tips off on November 5th.
by Jordan Beckley
Missing the Mark
Last year was a letdown in Champaign.
After winning 68 games and finishing in the Top 4 in the Big Ten the past three years, Illinois lost 13 games, tied for 5th in the conference with four other teams, and lost in the 8/9 matchup to Arkansas in the first round of the tournament.
The play on the court was unrefined and inconsistent. Illinois turned the ball over the most in the Big Ten at 12.9 times a game. The Illini averaged more TO’s than assists at 12.4 a game, good for 10th in the conference. The shooting wasn’t great either. Illinois was 310th in the country at .649 FT and 340th at 30.8% from beyond the arc. Despite the terrible shooting numbers, the Orange still shot the 2nd most threes in the conference last season.
The dysfunction extended beyond the court too.
Rumors swirled all season about divisions in the locker room. Illinois had the 11th ranked recruiting class in the country. Skyy Clark was the 4-star top recruit of the class. He left the team midseason and now plays for Louisville. Jayden Epps was the 2nd highest rated recruit and took over the starting job for Clark. Epps transferred to Georgetown this offseason. RJ Melendez was a breakout candidate last season and started 18 games for the Illini. He transferred to Georgia. Zacharrie Perrin is a top international player who redshirted last season. Perrin left the team for undisclosed reasons. Oh by the way, Perrin just finished on the All-tournament team in the U19 FIBA World Cup for France.
It wasn’t the top recruiting class that was so great for Illinois but the transfer class that performed the best. The Portal brought the Illini Terrence Shannon Jr, Matthew Mayer and Dain Dainja. Those three players were the leading scorers for the team on a per 40 minute basis.
Inefficient shooting. Young Backcourt. Locker room issues. Can Brad Underwood learn from the mistakes that held them back last season?
For all the doom and gloom of this intro, Illinois still won 20 games last year, were a 0.5 game from finishing in the Top 4 again, and were close to beating Arkansas who went on to upset Kansas in the next game and made the Sweet 16.
With Terrence Shannon Jr and Coleman Hawkins delaying their pro careers for one more round in Champaign, Underwood and Illinois will have everything they need to challenge for the top tier of the Big Ten again.
Roster Breakdown
Guards: Terrence Shannon Jr, Ty Rodgers, Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn, Niccolo Moretti
The big question mark for Illinois will be the point guard position. Rodgers, Gibbs-Lawhorn and Moretti are the potential answers. Rodgers is a sophomore with a ton of talent who is naturally more of a 2 than a point. Gibbs-Lawhorn is a score-first guard who outscored both lottery picks Amen and Ausar Thompson in Overtime Elite league last season, but playmaking is a question for him. Moretti is a redshirt freshman and the younger brother of Davide Moretti on the Final Four Texas Tech team. Niccolo likely is the best playmaker, but his questions are more related to size, shooting, defense, etc.
One of these guys is going to win the job. Will their flaws hold Illinois back? The day one starter will almost certainly be Rodgers. We will see if he keeps it.
Illinois has one of the best guards in the country in TSJ. I think he is one of the few candidates that could beat out Edey for Big Ten Player of the Year. TSJ will score 17+ points again easily and be an All-Big Ten player. The questions for him will be how good of a playmaker he can be and if he can be a first team All-Big Ten player. None of the Point guard options will be perfect. Part of the playmaking responsibility will fall on TSJ.
Wings: Sencire Harris, Justin Harmon, Marcus Domask
Wings are harder to define on Illinois than most Big Ten teams. Illinois and Underwood like to stock up on a bunch of fours who play the 3. Here are the guys I think will eat up the minutes at the 3.
Southern Illinois transfer Marcus Domask fits that bill. Domask is 6’6” shooter who will grab a rebound or two. He will likely play a lot more at the 3 than the 4.
Harmon is a Utah Valley transfer who is more of a third guard build who will bring defense and shooting in a complimentary way.
Sencire Harris is a sophomore that Illini fans can make a leap offensively. Harris is a good defender but didn’t offer much on the other end as a Freshman.
Other players like Luke Goode, Quincy Guerrier and even Coleman Hawkins could play some 3 at times in bigger lineups.
Bigs: Dain Dainja, Coleman Hawkins, Quincy Guerrier, Luke Goode, Amani Hansberry
Perhaps Illinois’ most talented group is their frontcourt.
Coleman Hawkins is a borderline All-Big Ten type of player and certainly a top-tier glue guy.
Dainja played limited minutes last year, but showed real ability to be a commanding Big Ten center. Dainja is the only true center, but I imagine those backup 5 minutes will go to freshman Amani Hansberry. Illinois will often play small with Hawkins at 5, but Hansberry is a 4-star forward that they really like and will want to find minutes for. Those minutes will probably have to come at the 5.
Guerrier is a grad-transfer who has over 80 starts at Syracuse and Oregon that will hopefully be a stretch 4 for the Illini. Finally, Luke Goode was a breakout candidate last season who was stunted by injuries. Could he make a leap and fight for more minutes?
The minutes distribution will be tough to figure out. I thought that the Illini sorely missed an inside presence last season. I would like to see Illinois play a little more inside out through Dain Dainja. However, Dainja having a larger role would squeeze out some of the minutes at 4 for guys like Guerrier and Goode who definitely expect them.
A big takeaway is that Illinois has 12 talented players on scholarship. The Orange have one of the more unpredictable rotations in the conference.
Will anyone emerge as the guy to run the offense and set up TSJ, Dainja and the shooters? Will playing small or playing bigger be more effective? Will any of the Illinois players make a jump or will the transfer players be more effective again this year?
Expect Underwood to experiment with lineups in non-conference to figure it all out.
Will Illinois return to the top?
So what failed for the Illini last year?
The freshmen point guards didn’t make the impact that they needed to make. The Illini went from strong leading guards like Ayo Dosunmu, Alfonso Plummer and Trent Frazier to Skyy Clark. The other high profile freshmen showed more flashes and potential than they were ready-made impact performers. Did Underwood learn from his mistake?
I mentioned how the Illini’s best performers were transfers last season. Coach Underwood brought in three starting level transfers this portal season in Domask, Harmon & Guerrier. Even if they don’t start they will add some been-there done-that college basketball experience. All that knowledge and reps will help if Rodgers, Harris or Gibbs-Lawhorn aren’t big time this year.
Still, Illinois struck out on all their point guard targets in the portal. Now, one of Rodgers, Gibbs-Lawhorn or Moretti is going to have to be ready to be the starting point guard. Rodgers will be the starter come game 1. Is the hype for Rodgers as a lead guard off-season coach speak or is it real?
What about the inefficient three point shooting? You have to be careful with foreign tours, but one of the most terrifying observations was the Illini’s shooting tendencies on their trip overseas. Coach Underwood did not change the shot selection strategy as Illinois shot over 26 threes a game and made only 20.5% of them. That pace would be the most 3PA per game in conference while also being the worst team at making them in the Big Ten.
Part of what made previous Illinois teams so dangerous on the perimeter was the giant in the middle. Kofi Cockburn opened up so much for the rest of the team. Last year, Illinois played a lot of Mayer and Hawkins frontcourts. Dainja was the only true center and he was averaging 20 minutes per game. Illinois needs a center to make the flex offense work. Having a presence inside will help these less than stellar shooters be more open and increase the shooting percentage. Plus, Dainja is just flat out good and should get more minutes.
I’m being hard on Illinois because I think so highly of them. Brad Underwood is one of the 4 best coaches in the conference and the Illini will be competing towards the top of the Big Ten almost every year under him. I just think they can do better than what they did last year.
The middle of the Big Ten is always a little bit of a crapshoot. Adding to the volatility of the standings is Illini’s three point gamble. Shooting a million threes is an experiment that brings volatility to results. If Illinois shoots a little better from three, they can steal a couple extra games and be at the top. But the volatility could swing the other way and they can drop games they shouldn’t.
At its best, Illinois will be a team capable of competing with Michigan State and Purdue for the Big Ten title. Bringing back Terrence Shannon Jr and Coleman Hawkins gives them that championship ceiling.
The inexperience at the point, the volume of threes at an inefficient clip and how much Illinois can score inside-out are areas of concern that could bring the Illini closer to their floor.
I will be carefully watching to see how Underwood reacts when shots aren’t falling, when his point guard isn’t running the offense and when they aren’t scoring anything on the inside.
Will he learn from his mistakes from last year? The Illini’s season could depend on it.