What comes next for Northwestern after a program year?

Previewing the 2023-24 Northwestern Basketball Season

In the month of October, The Floor Slap will be launching our College Basketball Preview. We will be previewing all 14 Big Ten Teams, making predictions, covering the biggest storylines across the country and more! Follow @thefloorslap to stay up to date on all our Basketball coverage before the season tips off on November 5th.

by Jordan Beckley

So, What Now?

Chris Collins guided Northwestern to it’s best ever season last year.

The Wildcats won the 2nd most games in program history at 22 (2 shy of 2016-17) and won the most Big Ten games in program history (2 more than 2016-17). They made the tournament for just the 2nd time ever and as their highest seed ever (no.7) they won their 2nd game ever over Boise State.

I’m too lazy to look up a list of all the teams who have never lost in the first round of the NCAA Tournament, but Northwestern is on it and I can’t imagine many other teams are. Post that graphic for the #BigTenStatoftheDay !

Along with winning games accolades followed for the Wildcats. Chase Audige and Boo Buie both made 2nd-Team All-Big Ten. Plus, Audige was co-Defensive Player of the Year in the Big Ten. Even Chris Collins won Big Ten Coach of the Year as well as the Jim Phelan National Coach of the Year award.

People loved the surprise that was Northwestern Basketball last year.

But, all of that was last year. Now, everyone has to start fresh.

Northwestern’s players and staff received attention and applause that they have never really had before. As the page turns to this year, how will they react when that applause turns into expectation?

People are picking Northwestern to be a tournament team and be at the top of the Big Ten again. Boo Buie is garnering All-American hype from many pundits. Those are real expectations that the Wildcats were not burdened with last season.

Yeah, Northwestern finished 2nd in the conference last year, but they only won 12 games. Most years that is good for about the 5 seed. If they had one less game, the Wildcats would have tied for the 4 seed and maybe been as low as the 9 seed in the Big Ten Tournament. Sure, the defense was awesome at 22nd overall on Kenpom, but they are losing their best defender in Audige. The offense was 88th in the country and is losing one of their two double digit scorers in Audige.

Northwestern went 6-3 in games decided by 6 points or less. Were they lucky or were they good? In a conference won in the margins, is Northwestern due for a major regression this year?

The central question for Northwestern basketball this season is what happens the year after you do everything that you could have hoped for?

Chris Collins, Boo Buie and the rest of Northwestern hope the answer to that question is to repeat it. But, that is much easier said than done.

Roster Breakdown

Guards: Boo Buie, Ty Berry, Parker Strauss, Jordan Clayton

Northwestern will have one of the best backcourts in the Big Ten again this season mainly because of Boo Buie. He and Zach Edey are the only two players of the top five in scoring to return this season. As previously mentioned, Buie has been picked to be an All-American by most publications, but how much better can he get. Most of the best scorers in the conference sit right around that 14 shots a game mark he was at last year. Does Collins want him taking more of those? Given his size it will be difficult for him to improve his 46.7% 2pt FG percentage and he is already a fair three point shooter at 32% with good volume of 5.9 a game.

Basically, Buie is the exact right player he needs to be already. Which makes sense since he is a four year player who has 84 starts to his name. Buie’s numbers will stay at a similar level or be worse. If he’s going to make an All-American team it will have to be from the win column improving not the counting stats. No, Northwestern’s improvement needs to come elsewhere.

That’s where Ty Berry comes into the fold. Last year, Berry made strides as a complimentary player next to Chase Audige and Buie. Known as a shooter, Berry actually had his worst 3% of his career despite averaging a career high. He finished better inside the arc, and improved as a defender and rebounder. Coach Collins will need him to step up and be a stud perimeter defender and more of a go-to scorer.

The other two guards left, Strauss and Clayton, are freshmen who like most Northwestern first-years will have very few minutes. Clayton is a Buie-archetype in waiting. The point guard from Massachusetts is a crafty finisher who is confident with both hands in the lane and keeps his head up for teammates at all times. Strauss might earn his way onto the court at times with his strong shooting, hard-working hustle plays, and defensive traits.

Wings: Brooks Barnhizer, Ryan Langborg, Blake Barkley, Justin Mullins

The biggest boom or bust breakout for Northwestern is Barnhizer. After playing sparingly as a freshman (7mpg in 11 appearances), Barnhizer broke out with 7.6 ppg in 24 mpg. The sophomore leap saw him jump to be a 32% 3pt shooter, score more efficiently overall, and become a better defender and rebounder. He wasn’t technically a starter but by the end of the year Barnhizer was closing every game for the Cats. This year he is guaranteed to start at the 3 and will be asked to take more than 6.4 shots a game. If he can make another leap from beyond the arc while upping his attempts, the lane will really clear up for Buie’s drives. If he doesn’t make a jump offensively, Northwestern’s offense will really struggle.

Princeton transfer Ryan Langborg adds another intelligent player who will stretch the floor. A career 36% 3 point shooter, Langborg made 12 threes from beyond 25 feet last season which will force defenders further out of the lane. Langborg also is a confident secondary ball handler who finished above 50% at the rim on nearly a third of his shots overall. He should play heavy minutes for the Cats and should be close to a double digit scorer after doing so the past two seasons in the Ivy league.

Blake Barkley is 6’8″ forward who could see some reserve minutes at the four. Barkley isn’t much of a shooter, but he has a refined handle for a guy his size and is aggressive driving to the basket. Again, most freshmen don’t get many minutes ever, so don’t expect to see him much outside of nonconference blowouts.

Finally, Justin Mullins knows one direction and that is downhill. The Denver transfer shoots half his shots at the rim at a fantastic 67%. Mullins has long active arms and averaged 1.5 steals a game. Given his explosive slashing skill and his bothersome defensive habits, the rising sophomore has plenty of potential and could fill into a similar role Chase Audige had last season.

Bigs: Matthew Nicholson, Luke Hunger, Nick Martinelli, Blake Preston

The X factor for Northwestern is Nicholson. The 7-footer is entering his senior season, but he is really entering his second season of any real minutes. A sophomore leap could be coming for Nicholson after recording 6 points, 5 boards and a 1.2 blocks a game last year in 21 minutes. Nicholson has a realistic shot to be a 1st team All-Defense guy and potentially just erase opponents ability to score near the rim. On the offensive end, can he improve and be more of a threat? What does year 2 of the two man game between him and Buie look like? His ability to be felt in the post on both ends could elevate Northwestern from a middle of the pack team to more of a force.

Luke Hunger and Nick Martinelli are sophomores who will be vying for backup big minutes. However, grad transfer Blake Preston will likely be the guy with most of the backup 5 minutes. Preston is a quick cutting, highly efficient big with good vision. Preston like Nicholson offers no perimeter shooting and shoots an abysmal 39% from the charity stripe. He will eat probably ten minutes a game and never take a shot more than 2 feet from the rim.

Coach Collins has reasons to be excited for this roster. Boo Buie offers a baseline as an All-conference level player. There is breakout potential with the in-house development of guys like Ty Berry, Brooks Barnhizer and Matthew Nicholson. The transfers bring in new skills and bolster the depth for the Wildcats.

There is a version of this where they are better than last year, but that would require everything to work out. In the preseason, every player is going to have a huge leap and all of the transfers are going to fit in perfect on a new team in a new conference.

But what happens if things don’t work out? What if Barnhizer doesn’t take a jump from behind the arc? What if Berry isn’t more than just a 3&D guy? What if Nicholson is a great defender but below average on offense? What happens if one, two or all three of the transfers don’t work in a power conference?

Moving Forward

Northwestern accomplished everything they could have hoped for last season. But the past is the past. What are they going to do this season?

Boo Buie got national recognition all of last year, is a preseason darling, and will be the guy fans remember from last year’s team. Complacency after a 12 month span like he has had would be understandable. How motivated will he be this season? Another breakout is predicted for him but is just unlikely given his numbers might be at their ceiling.

How motivated is Coach Collins coming into this season? Collins may not have been on the hot seat last year but he certainly earned a few more years of leeway by making the tournament again. Does he take a deep breath or does he see more opportunity this season?

Did the taste of success last season set a standard for guys like Barnhizer and Berry or are they happy to make history just the one time?

One thing Northwestern has never done is go to back to back tournaments.

This year’s team is absolutely capable of doing that. Last year’s team benefitted from the ball bouncing the right way and a clustered middle-tier of the Big Ten. This year’s team can prove it wasn’t luck but that they are a genuinely tough and competitive squad.

The path forward for Northwestern has potential to be a shutdown defense with Berry, Mullins, Barnhizer, and all anchored by Nicholson in the center. If things really go right on the offensive end this team could be a team that rains threes around a deadly two man game of Buie and Nicholson.

A lot has to go right for that to happen. This preview has mainly tried to show that regression is more likely than stasis, but Northwestern wants you to doubt them. After all the praise, they need people like me to say, “yeah, but…” so they can prove us wrong.

Coach Collins, Buie and Northwestern found a way last year. Now, it is up to them to prove that it wasn’t a fluke.

What comes after a program year can be disappointment or it can be a new standard. Wildcat fans hope that Collins and company filter out the acclaim and come motivated to repeat last year’s triumphs.