by Sean Szymczak
November is always a little different in college football. This is the month where championships contenders and legends are made. Rivalry games galore and conference championships set the stage for college football’s elite to have their “Heisman moment.”
With four weeks left in the regular season, the Heisman race is still wide open. There seem to be three clear favorites, but I see 12 players that can legitimately receive an invitation to New York City for the Heisman Ceremony. We break those 12 players down into tiers below.
Tier 1: The Favorites
Things can always go awry, but these players seem to have already punched their ticket to NYC for the Heisman Ceremony.
1) Washington QB Michael Pennix Jr
Team Record: 8-0
Stats: 2,945 pass yds, 24 TDs, 6 INTs, 69.0% comp, 10.0 y/a, -9 rush yds, 0 TDs
Michael Pennix should remain the favorite as long as Washington is undefeated. The Huskies have looked shaky over the past two weeks – and Pennix did not look good in a controversial 15-7 win over ASU. But he made up for it by passing for 369 yards and 4 TDs last week. Besides, every Heisman contender has at least one blemish on their resume so far. Pennix already had his “Heisman moment” against Oregon, but has plenty of opportunity to impress further with upcoming matchups against USC, Utah, Oregon State, and likely a Pac-12 Championship.
2) Oregon QB Bo Nix
Team Record: 7-1
Stats: 2,337 pass yds, 21 TDs, 1 INT, 78.3% comp, 10.3 y/a, 113 rush yds, 3 TDs
Oregon certainly didn’t lose to Washington because of Bo Nix, who had 337 yards and 2 TDs with 75% completion. He even set them up for a game-timing field goal as time expired which was missed. But his outing against Utah erased any doubt of Nix’s greatness. What jumps out about his stat line is the absurd 78% completion – illustrating the command he has of this offense. If Oregon rematches Washington in the Pac-12 title, that game could very well decide the Heisman winner.
3) LSU QB Jayden Daniels
Team Record: 6-2
Stats: 2,573 pass yds, 25 TDs, 3 INTs, 73.1% comp, 11.5 y/a, 521 rush yds, 5 TDs
Jayden Daniels definitely has the most impressive stats out of any of the contenders on this list but is 3rd on this list because his team is seemingly out of CFP contention. But that’s not Daniels’ fault. His heroics against Arkansas, Ole Miss, and Missouri kept LSU in those games. With the defense starting to play better, the Tigers have every chance to upset Alabama in Tuscaloosa this weekend. A win would stamp Daniels’ invitation to NYC – and likely LSU’s spot in the SEC title.
Tier 2: The Contenders
These players are currently on the outside looking in, but each has every opportunity to rise through the rankings, get invited to NYC, and even win the Heisman.
4) Ohio State WR Marvin Harrison Jr
Team Record: 8-0
Stats: 48 receptions, 889 yds, 8 TDs, 18.5 yds per reception
Masserati Marv not only is not only the greatest WR prospect since Calvin Johnson, but he means more to his offense than perhaps any skill position player in the country. Since his quiet outing against Notre Dame, Marvin Harrison Jr has been averaging 7.8 catches for 138 yards and 1.3 TDs over the past four games. But the bar is set higher for WRs contending for a Heisman. He’ll need to continue that pace and probably save his best game of the year for The Game at the end of the year if he wants any chance of actually winning.
5) Florida State QB Jordan Travis
Team Record: 8-0
Stats: 2,109 pass yds, 18 TDs, 2 INTs, 64.8% comp, 8.3 y/a, 205 rush yds, 6 TDs
Travis’ completion percentage and yards per attempt don’t outline the most efficient QB in the nation. But he’s on pace for 3,760 total yards and 39 total TDs through 13 games. Maintaining those numbers and going 13-0 should be good enough to get an invitation to NYC. But Florida State just doesn’t have the marquee matchups this season to give Travis that “Heisman moment.” They’ve played one team that is ranked the CFP Top 25 – a 19 point loss to LSU. If he wants any chance of winning, he’ll have to hope Louisville continues to win to set up a potential top-10 showdown in the ACC Championship.
6) Michigan QB JJ McCarthy
Team Record: 8-0
Stats: 1,799 pass yds, 18 TDs, 3 INTs, 78.1% comp, 10.6 y/a, 168 rush yds, 3 TDs
McCarthy’s completion percentage and yards per attempt really pop out – he’s been as efficient as any QB in the country. But he’s on pace for under 3,200 total yards through 13 games. Those aren’t necessarily Heisman numbers. Michigan is a complete team that is winning games with a smothering defense, strong run game, and efficient pass attack. I wouldn’t say McCarthy is carrying them to wins. But a big game against potentially #1 Ohio State to finish the regular season could change that script and launch him up the rankings.
7) Oklahoma QB Dillon Gabriel
Team Record: 7-1
Stats: 2,302 pass yds, 19 TDs, 4 INTs, 71.4% comp, 9.1 y/a, 294 rush yds, 8 TDs
Gabriel had 3 rushing TDs in their loss to Kansas last week. But the Sooners’ hesitancy to throw the ball was alarming. But as I mentioned earlier, every Heisman contender has at least one blemish on their resume. Although that loss was not a death sentence to his Heisman candidacy, Oklahoma will likely need to win out and beat Texas again in the Big 12 title for Gabriel to have a shot. But based on how the Sooners have played the past two weeks, I think it’s more likely that they fall out of the Big 12 title entirely.
Tier 3: The Longshots
These players are unlikely to actually win the Heisman, but an invitation to NYC is not off the table.
8) Colorado QB Shedeur Sanders
Team Record: 4-4
Stats: 2,637 pass yds, 22 pass TDs, 3 INTs, 71.1% comp, 7.6 y/a, -43 rush yds, 3 TDs
Over the past 15 seasons, only two Heisman winners were not in the national title conversation at the end of the season: Lamar Jackson in 2016 and RG3 in 2011. As impressive as his highlight reel is, Sanders isn’t quite having those types of seasons. But with games against Oregon State and Utah in their final four, Colorado still has a chance to finish a respectable 8-4 with a couple top-25 wins. Sanders will likely need some collapses from the rest of the contenders, but an invitation to NYC isn’t out of the question.
9) Georgia QB Carson Beck
Team Record: 8-0
Stats: 2,462 pass yds, 14 TDs, 4 INTs, 73.0% comp, 9.7 y/a, 61 rush yds, 3 TDs
Georgia has finally started to play like the team we’ve seen the past two seasons and a big reason is the play of QB Carson Beck, despite the absence of Brock Bowers. These aren’t Heisman numbers yet, but Georgia plays Missouri, Ole Miss, and Tennessee over the next three weeks. Beck has every opportunity to impress voters and move up these rankings.
10) Louisville RB Jawhar Jordan
Team Record: 7-1
Stats: 824 rush yds, 10 TDs, 7.5 ypc, 10 receptions, 174 yds, 1 TD
I said earlier that Marvin Harrison Jr means more to his offense than perhaps any skill position player in the country. Jawhar Jordan is right up there with him. If you need proof, just look at the Cardinal offense after Jordan went down against Pitt. In their two biggest games of the season – wins over Notre Dame and Duke – Jordan averaged 153 yards and 2 TDs on over 7 yards per carry. If Louisville wins the ACC, it’ll be on the back of Jawhar Jordan. And a big performance against an undefeated FSU in the ACC title could launch him right into the Heisman conversation.
11) Texas RB Jonathon Brooks
Team Record: 7-1
Stats: 923 rush yds, 7 TDs, 6.4 ypc, 22 receptions, 212 yds, TD
Jonathon Brooks should be the unquestioned focal point of the Longhorn offense with Quinn Ewers out. He got off to a slow start to the season, but has averaged 136 rush yards and a rush TD over the past six games. Texas plays Kansas State this weekend and should have another marquee matchup in the Big 12 title. He’ll need to up his play a bit, but Jonathon Brooks is not out of the Heisman conversation.
12) Michigan RB Blake Corum
Team Record: 8-0
Stats: 605 rush yds, 13 TDs, 5.5 ypa, 8 receptions, 60 yds, 0 TDs
This is purely speculative. Corum is having a quieter season, as he hasn’t topped 100 rush yards in Big Ten play yet. But that has a lot to do with how badly Michigan is beating teams. But if Corum regains his form from the past two seasons and Michigan runs the table, he could work his way into the Heisman conversation. I mean, a 200-yard performance against Ohio State would be as good of a Heisman moment as any, right? It feels like Michigan will have a Heisman representative if they go 13-0. Determining who will just depend on how they win games against Penn State, Ohio State, and in the Big Ten title. But again, this hinges on the Wolverines finishing undefeated.