by Sean Szymczak
Two weeks remain in the college football regular season. As sad of a fact as that is, it means it’s time for teams to reassess their coaching staffs.
While I’d be shocked if there is more than a couple head-coaching changes in the Big Ten this off-season, there are plenty of coordinators who are under fire. As one might imagine, a lot of offensive coordinators are under fire after a lackluster year on that side of the ball throughout the conference.
Let’s explore the coaches with the hottest seats as the end of the 2023 season approaches.
Hot Seat Level: Scorching
Indiana HC Tom Allen
The Hoosiers find themselves in a precarious position with HC Tom Allen. They signed him to a 7-year contract back in 2019 which seemed like a slam-dunk after he won B1G COTY in the COVID season. Even though players and even fans still love Tom Allen the man, Tom Allen the coach has not met expectations in the past three seasons.
Indiana has won only 9 games combined since that magical 2020 season. Things seemed like they might be turning around after they gave Penn State everything they could handle on the road and then upset Wisconsin. But they are once again going to miss out on the post-season after falling 48-45 in OT against Illinois. And there lies part of the problem. Tom Allen was hired as a defensive mastermind, but his defense has been inconsistent at best. I mean, they let John Paddock throw for over 500 yards after shutting down a Penn State offense littered with future NFL players.
On paper, it looks like it is time to let Tom Allen go. But the problem is his contract. The school will owe Tom Allen $20.8m if fired before December 1st of this year. They could wait until December 2nd, but the buyout will still be $8m. I’m not sure Indiana is looking to shell out that much money to make a coach that many people still like go away. Besides, who can they hire that would be better? Indiana is one of the hardest Power 5 schools to build a winning program at, after all.
Tom Allen’s seat is scorching – make no mistake about it. Whether or not Indiana decides to pull the trigger this year will likely depend on how the season closes out. There is a big difference between 3-9 and 5-7. Even so, I think his contract will give him another year to prove he has things moving in the right direction. But if Indiana fails to make a bowl game again in 2024, I’d say it’s all but certain the Hoosiers will move on.
Penn State OC Mike Yurcich
Sunday Edit: Penn State has fired Penn State OC Mike Yurcich following their 24-15 loss to Michigan
I didn’t even have Mike Yurcich on this list until witnessing the fiasco that was the Penn State offense against Michigan on Saturday. Say what you want about Drew Allar – he certainly hasn’t met expectations this season. But I think the Nittany Lions’ anemic offense falls squarely on the shoulders of Yurcich and James Franklin.
Penn State mustered less than 50% completion and 3.2 yards per passing attempt. Drew Allar wasn’t very accurate, but the plays they drew up for him didn’t help much. I mean, they had a play designed for Allar to roll out to the short side of the field on a 2nd & long. On that play, they had one receiver run a route on that side of the field that went past the line of scrimmage. They also had a Michigan defensive lineman intentionally unblocked. That’s the kind of play-calling Allar has to put up with.
Not to mention Yurcich’s inability to bring in elite receivers. Penn State used to be as good as any program at developing NFL receivers with guys like Allen Robinson, Chris Godwin, and Jahan Dotson. Yurcich didn’t recruit any of those guys. WVU transfer Dante Cephas was his splash addition to compliment Keandre Lambert-Smith this past off-season. He has 199 receiving yards in 10 games.
I think the Nittany Lions actually have a better defense than Michigan and Ohio State this season. Even if that’s not true, there isn’t a doubt they have a top-10 unit in the country. They have allowed Penn State to stay in games against UM & OSU into the 4th quarter. The offense has let this team down in unimaginable ways.
It might be a little too early to get rid of James Franklin, who is eyeing down his 5th 11-win season at Penn State. But change needs to happen. And that change is finding a new offensive coordinator.
Nebraska OC Marcus Satterfield
The defensive turnaround in Lincoln has been one of the biggest stories in the Big Ten this season. In 2022, they were 100th nationally in total defense and 77th in scoring defense. This season, they are top-25 in both. All credit in the world goes to Matt Rhule, former Syracuse DC Tony White, and the players’ ability to understand and execute the 3-3-5 defense.
The Husker offense has been a completely different story. A year after being outside the top-100 in scoring and total offense, they have actually gotten worse. Nebraska is also leading the country in turnovers committed. QB play has been less than optimal to say the least. But I think people are starting to understand why South Carolina fans were so happy to get rid of OC Marcus Satterfield last season.
A season that has been littered with questionable decisions and play calls came to a head against Maryland. Nebraska had no business being in that game. Even so, Chubba Purdy helped drive the Huskers to inside the 10-yard line late in the 4th quarter. Nebraska ran the ball on 8 of the 10 plays on that drive and Satterfeild had seemingly already showed that he did not trust Purdy throwing the ball – and rightfully so. Facing a 3rd & goal from the 7, all Nebraska had to do was run the ball, set up a chip-shot field goal to take a 13-10 lead, and trust their defense with 3:30 left in the game. Instead, Satterfield called a pass. Want to know how that turned out?
Purdy threw a bad interception, Maryland drove 75 yards, and the Terps won on a walk-off field goal. 13-10. That decision to throw encompasses everything that has gone wrong with this offense this season.
This isn’t the same case as Indiana where you have to wonder if they can go out and get someone better. Although they may no longer be considered a blueblood, Nebraska is still a premier program in college football. The fans deserve better. This defense deserves better. Nebraska football is better than what they put on display Saturday at home.
It’s time for Nebraska to part ways with Marcus Satterfield and find an offensive coordinator that can just not lose games for this team.
Michigan State Interim HC Harlon Barnett
Michigan State is ready to throw one of the largest coach contracts in CFB history, the deed to the university, and maybe even the President’s wife in order to get Urban Meyer to be their head coach. That’s not to say it’s a guarantee – Meyer could very well be content with his position at FOX and want to leave his coaching days behind him after his debacle in Jacksonville.
The problem for Harlon Barnett is he hasn’t really given Michigan State a reason to remove the interim tag and make him their full-time head coach. Yes, it appears the players love him. Their reaction after Barnett picked up his first win last week against Nebraska said it all. But as an interim coach, you need to have some tangible on-field impact to point to if you want to keep your job.
Michigan State lost their first 6 games under Barnett by an average margin of over 20 points. He’s been responsible for one of the worst pass defenses in college football as DB Coach since 2020. The Spartan secondary has made some strides this season, but still ranks in the bottom 5 of the Big Ten in pass yards allowed, opponent completion percentage, and passing TDs allowed.
Even if Michigan State doesn’t land Urban Meyer, I fully expect them to go in a different direction. Barnett’s only hope is that the new coach will keep him on their defensive staff.
Michigan State OC Jay Johnson
With a new head coach likely on the way, it’s safe to say every coach on the Spartan staff is sitting on a hot seat. But Jay Johnson’s seat has to be hotter than anyone else’s on the staff.
To put it lightly, Michigan State’s offense has been abysmal this season. Whether it be route concepts that end up with two or three receivers in the same spot, Johnson’s refusal to attempt QB sneaks, or his adoration for tempo and unsuccessful flee-flickers, Spartan fans have been vocal all season long about their disdain for their offensive coordinator.
It’ll be fascinating to see how Michigan State pieces together a new coaching staff in an attempt to restore their football program ahead of the Big Ten expansion. But one thing is for sure: Jay Johnson won’t be a part of that new staff.
Hot Seat Level: Warm
Penn State HC James Franklin
It seems almost silly to be talking about firing a coach who had taken over a program that was 31-19 in the four seasons before his arrival and has since won a Big Ten title, three NY6 bowl games, and is staring down his fifth 11+ win season.
But the fact of the matter is James Franklin is incapable of winning the big games. That’s not a “take” anymore. It’s just a fact. The high of the dramatic 2016 win against Ohio State has more than worn off. Franklin is now 12-26 against ranked teams, 3-17 vs top-10 teams, 3-7 vs Michigan, and 1-9 vs Ohio State.
What makes Saturday’s loss even harder for Penn State fans to swallow is some of the decisions James Franklin made. Going for two in the 2nd quarter was questionable to say the least in the moment. And that decision hung over Penn State the entire game. Then he went for two again in the final minutes when a PAT would have made it a one-score game. Penn State probably wasn’t getting the ball back either way, but that failed two-point attempt ended the game right then and there.
But the worst decision was to go for it on 4th & 6 from their own 30-yard line with 4:53 left in the game. Their defense had forced three punts and two 3-and-outs on Michigan’s last three possessions. Punting it back to the Wolverines would be far from the end of the game. Allar was 8-18 passing at that point and Franklin thought it was a good idea to put the ball in his hands, game on the line, in an obvious passing situation? With their defense playing lights out? That decision could be fireable in and of itself.
Penn State is not Michigan State. Or Nebraska. Or Wisconsin. They are not just looking to be competitive in the Big Ten. A NY6 bowl birth is not a great season for them. This is a team and program that expects to compete for national championships. And James Franklin doesn’t even have a CFP birth under his belt. You could point to 2016 as a controversial year where they should have made it. But don’t forget – they lost to Michigan 49-10 that year. Another flop in a big game.
This was supposed to be the season. Two of the best running backs in the country. One of the highest-rated QBs in program history. A future top-10 OT returned specifically for this season. A senior-laden defense – one of the best in the entire country. This was supposed to be the year Penn State could finally get over the hump. Instead, they are looking at an identical record to last season.
Penn State isn’t a program where you have to ask yourself “can we get anyone better?”. They are easily a top-10 job in college football. The question is, has James Franklin done enough to earn another season? That is not an easy question to answer. After all, he is the one that brought this program back to life after the Sandusky fiasco.
I don’t think James Franklin gets fired this year. But 2024 is certainly a do-or-die year for him.
Illinois OC Barry Lunney Jr.
Illinois’ play over the past two weeks has helped Lunney’s job security a lot. They have risen to the occasion. The Illini’s 48-45 OT win over Indiana on Saturday brought Lunney’s hot seat level from scorching to warm.
Even so, this Illinois offense has been littered with problems all season long. They have struggled to convert on 3rd down. They utilize a lot of tempo which doesn’t make sense given how much their defense has struggled with the mass exodus of talent to the NFL. They played two bad defenses earlier this season in FAU & Purdue but mustered 42 points combined in those games. There really hasn’t been any improvement at all in this offense since Illinois fired OC Tony Peterson at the conclusion of 2021 in favor of Lunney.
It has become abundantly clear that Chase Brown was the only reason this offense saw any success last season. Without him, the run game has been nonexistent and they have had to rely solely on the play of their QB to win games.
I’ve seen enough. Barry Lunney Jr is hurting this offense more than he is helping it. Despite their recent success with John Paddock, I think it’s time for Illinois to move on.
Hot Seat Level: Mild
Minnesota HC PJ Fleck
Minnesota’s program seemed as stable as any in the Big Ten after going 29-10 in three seasons, excluding the COVID year. But the 2023 season went south fast. Reeling after a beatdown at the hands of the lowly Boilermakers, the Gophers will have to beat their rival at the end of the season just to make a bowl game.
Nothing has worked this season. The departure of OC Kirk Ciaracca has been felt throughout the season, as the offense has been a complete mess. Athan Kaliakmanis has been erratic and uncomfortable. They have failed to get their deep group of pass-catchers involved. The offensive line has failed to replace the production they lost along the interior offensive line. The running back position has been a revolving door. Tyler Nubin has been one of the only bright spots of a defense that has been picked apart on a weekly basis.
But this is more than an overreaction to one year. In their successful three-year stretch preceding this season, Fleck still only went 2-6 against ranked teams and failed to reach the Big Ten title. That division has been as wide open and mediocre as any in college football, yet the Gophers have never won it.
The losses of veterans like Mohamad Ibrahim, John Michael Schmitz, and Tanner Morgan have deeply impacted this team and the young players have not stepped up in their place like some expected. There isn’t much evidence of Fleck recruiting and developing quality talent over the past couple seasons.
The Gophers seem to have lost their hard-nosed demeanor which had been synonymous with PJ Fleck teams for so long. There is no doubt he will return as Minnesota’s head coach next season. But how many seasons of six-win football will this university and fanbase tolerate until action is taken? The noise around Fleck will certainly get a lot louder if they replicate this type of season next year.
Purdue OC Graham Harrell
Purdue’s 49-point outburst gave a peak into what this offense could potentially be with Walters’ & Harrell’s players on the roster. But before this weekend, the Boilermaker offense had been a hot mess.
Hudson Card came into this season with some high expectations as a 5-star prospect in the 2020 class. Although he’s showed some flashes, he has largely looked uncomfortable in an offense that has lacked any sort of rhythm. Harrell’s biggest struggle was incorporating the run game and leaning too much on an aerial attack that nowhere near where it needed to be. The air-raid has fallen flat on its face for the majority of the season.
Ryan Walters is a defensive coach and is trying to install an entirely new scheme. Although there is sure to be growing pains, I believe Walters will get that side of the ball where it needs to be. But he can’t afford to have an offense that continues to put the defense in bad situations with quick three & outs, constant turnovers, and an inability to run the ball and eat some clock.
Graham Harrell is still regarded as a bright young coach. But installing a new offense from the ground up in a rebuilding program is totally different than anything Harrell has done in his career. He will need to show signs of improvement in 2024. Ryan Walters can’t afford to wait around for 3-5 years for this offense to finally click.