In a week that should see a lot of non-conference blowouts in the Big Ten, there is plenty opportunity to win some money. Here are my top 5 betting picks for week 2 of the Big Ten season.
1) Duke (+10) at Northwestern
A lot of people are riding the Wildcats, who got a week off to rest from their upset victory over Nebraska in Dublin, Ireland. And while they did look like a surprisingly solid football team in that matchup, they are far from a finished product.
After a great first half, Ryan Hilinski went only 7-15 for 98 yards. Their defense is also shaky, giving up 355 passing yards against a Nebraska team that struggled to throw the ball consistently against an FCS team. And Northwestern would have given up many more yards had it not been for a few brutal drops.
Duke, meanwhile, beat Temple 30-0 on Friday. QB Riley Leonard had a great day, going 24-30 for 328 yards, 2 TDs, and no turnovers. He also completed passes to 8 different receivers while only being sacked once. I expect Leonard to be able to move the ball against a weak Wildcat defense.
1st year head coach Mike Elko also changed Duke’s philosophy. Instead of a fast-paced, high-flying offense, the former Texas A&M DC is focusing on ball control and hard-nosed defense. Duke has the ability to get pressure on Ryan Hilinski and force some mistakes – something Nebraska failed to do.
With an extra week of prep, a balanced offense, and the home crowd behind them for the first time this year, Northwestern should still come out on top. But Duke has a better defense (and maybe even a better QB) than Nebraska. So this should be a close one.
Pick Duke to cover +10 with confidence.
2) Washington State at Wisconsin; U49.5 points
Wisconsin breezed passed Illinois State, while Washington State had to overcome an early 10-0 deficit to Idaho to beat them 24-17. Wisconsin’s -17.5 point line is a little too on-the-nose for how I think this game will play out. Instead, I’ll take the under at 49.5 points.
Wisconsin’s game plan is the same it’s always been – run the ball, control the clock, play great defense. Braelon Allen is as good as any running back in the conference and should see 20 carries at least. Although Graham Mertz looked as efficient as ever last week, this is still an offense that will dink-and-dunk rather than stretch the field vertically.
The Cougar’s defense got 7 sacks and allowed only 212 total yards to Idaho. This will be a much bigger challenge for the Badger offense and I have trouble seeing them score much more than 30 points.
Washington State’s offense, on the other hand, is not the typical air-raid attack you may be used to; they mustered only 226 total yards against the Vandals. Although they ran the ball pretty effectively at 5.5 yards per rush, they averaged only 5.6 yards per pass attempt. To make matters worse, they fumbled the ball three times – the kind of mistakes you simply can’t make against Wisconsin.
Washington State will struggle to score against Wisconsin. I could see WSU getting a late TD to inflate the score, maybe pushing it to a 31-17 finish. Either way, under 49.5 points seems like a safe bet for two teams that will lean on their defense.
3) Iowa State (+3.5) at Iowa
The cat’s out of the bag – Iowa’s offense is bad. So bad that, barring a flurry of defensive scores, they may not win any game this year by more than a possession. After their performance against South Dakota State, I am genuinely surprised to see them still listed as the favorite.
Enter Iowa State. The Hawkeye’s rival put up 469 total yards and went 8-12 on 3rd down – albeit against a weak SE Missouri State team. New QB Hunter Dekkers looked good, going 25-31 for 293 yards, 4TDs, and a pick. They also seem to have Breece Hall’s replacement picked out, with Jirehl Brock rushing for 104 yards and a TD on 6.5 yards per carry.
Iowa’s defense is dominant and smothering – make no mistake about it. But they are sure to be on the field for long stretches at a time. And it’s hard to rely on dominance in the field position battle for a second straight week. Simply put: Iowa State will put up some points against Iowa.
I’m not confident enough in Iowa State’s defense – and a little too scared of Iowa’s defense – to pick the upset. But as rivalry games tend to be, this should be a close game likely decided by a field goal.
4) Iowa State at Iowa; U40.5 points
Maybe I’m overreacting from that absolutely disgusting performance by Iowa’s offense last week, but I’m shocked the over/under is above 40 points for this game.
As I mentioned before, Iowa State is bound to put up some points. But in what should be a close game without much separation on the scoreboard, I have a really hard time seeing both teams reach 20 points.
What is much more likely is a lot of settling for field goals. Unless Iowa’s defense is able to score more points by themselves or Iowa gifts the Cyclones with great field position via a turnover, this game will likely end in the 16-13 range.
Iowa’s offense is amongst the country’s worst, while their defense is amongst the country’s best. You can do the math yourself.
5) Virginia vs Illinois (-190 ML)
Illinois is coming off a heartbreaking loss where they essentially handed Indiana the victory with their fumbles and penalties. But with Brett Bielema as their head coach, I expect them to pick themselves up and play a much cleaner game.
Chase Brown is one of the best running backs in the country, already running for 350 yards through the first two games. QB Tommy DeVito also took a big step forward in game 2, going 21-35 for 232 yards, 2 TDs, and a pick. This is an underrated offense that can grind out yards and control the clock.
Virginia’s defense, on the other hand, allowed 164 yards on 5.5 yards per carry to Richmond’s top two running backs last week. Their defensive front also struggled to consistently get to the QB against what should have been an overmatched opponent. They sacked the quarterback twice and rushed him only twice.
While Illinois shouldn’t have too much trouble running the ball and protecting DeVito, Virginia has a solid offense themselves. QB Brennan Armstrong spread the ball around against Richmond, going 21-33 for 246 yards, 2 TDs, and an INT. He and running back Perris Jones were also a force on the ground, combining for 209 yards and 2 TDs on over 7 yards per carry.
I think both teams will have more trouble stopping the opponent than they’ve had so far this season. But Illinois has the better coach, the best play-maker on the field in Chase Brown, and has the home crowd.
Motivated from last week’s collapse, Illinois should come out on top. But these two teams are a little too evenly matched for me to pick Illinois to win by more than a field goal (currently -4.5 favorites). But -190 is still good enough value to take for the money line.