by Jordan Beckley and Sean Szymczak
Blink and the regular season is finished.
13 weeks of College Football have come and gone and now we are left with 5 power conference Championships. Each of them with significant impact on the College Football Playoff.
Easily the biggest championship week in recent memory kicks off with the PAC-12 Championship where the Ducks of Oregon are nearly double digit favorites over undefeated Washington on Friday night.
Championship Saturday kicks off with Texas as two touchdown favorites against Oklahoma State on noon. After the game and some showers the Longhorns will be able to cheer on Louisville at 8 o’clock knowing that a Florida State loss is their best path into the CFP.
Oh and right in between those two is one of the biggest matchups possible with Alabama taking on Georgia in Atlanta. The last 5 times that Alabama and Georgia have met have resulted in two SEC Championships and two National Titles.
So, let’s pick some bets for an awesome weekend of football as Sean and I both try to forget that Ohio State isn’t apart of any of it!
Switch in format here. We are going to give out our picks ATS, then do a blurb on the over/under and finish with some props for all 5 of the Power 5 Championships. After that we will rip off some picks in the Group of 5 title games and each do a Hail Mary Parlay!
Oregon (-9.5) vs Washington, O/U: 65.5
Pac-12 Championship in Las Vegas, Nevada
Sean’s Pick ATS: I was shocked to see Oregon favored by two possessions in this matchup. I get it – the narrative around these teams have completely flipped since they matched up in October.
Following their win over the Ducks, Washington narrowly escaped Arizona State & Stanford (each finished 3-9). Meanwhile, Oregon has looked like one of the nation’s most dominant teams in resounding wins over Washington State, Utah, and Oregon State among others. Nonetheless, it seems all respect for Washington has unjustly been thrown out the window. Did you know they had the flu going through their locker room in those two ‘unimpressive’ wins?
Led by the versatile RB Dillon Johnson, the Huskies have discovered a reliable run game that was severely lacking in their previous matchup against Oregon. And although Oregon has looked great in their past six games, they also haven’t played much meaningful football in the 4th quarter. For the first time in over a month, things won’t come so easily to both sides of the ball.
Washington has been bashed for playing virtually every team into the 4th quarter. But that has also built a layer of grit around this football team. Both sides of the ball have come up with big plays when they’ve needed it most.
However, Oregon held Michael Pennix & Co to just 14 points in the second half of their last matchup. Pennix has also seemed to slow down in the final stretch of the season, completing no more than 57% of his passes in four of his final five games.
With the way Bo Nix has been playing and a defense that excels against the pass, Oregon is the logical pick to win this game. But the emotions of this game are sure to run high – and I trust Washington more in those situations. Oregon probably still wins, but Washington will certainly stay in this into the 4th quarter and cover +9.5.
Jordan’s Pick ATS: I am scared of Vegas.
Oregon has been heavily favored to a weird degree for most of their games this season. Vegas Oddsmakers are seeing something that the average fan must not see.
Oregon not only is almost double digit favorites, the Ducks have the third highest title odds at +500 and that is forcing Washington down to +2500. Do they know Washington already beat them?
Obviously they do and they are smarter than me. I am taking Oregon to cover -9.5 too. Weirdly, I like Washington ML at +265 because if it is going to be close nobody has more experience winning close games than the Cardiac Huskies this season.
Points Preview: These teams’ last matchup totaled 69 points.
That was with a missed game-tying FG as time expired and two turnover-on-downs from inside the opponent’s 10-yard line. Since that matchup, Washington game totals have averaged 57ppg and Oregon totals have averaged 58ppg. Needless to say, neither team has faced an offense close to as good as the one they are facing Friday night.
In a battle that very well may decide the Heisman Trophy, I would definitely lean with the points. I mean, you’ll be miserable if you are rooting for the under in a game like this. Take the over all the way up to 68.
Props:
Bucky Irving O90.5 Rush Yards (-114): He’s been quiet in the past couple games, combining for only 103 rush yards. But that was a blowout over Arizona State and against a very stout Oregon State front. Washington’s defensive strength is in the secondary – they give up 135 rush yards per game at over 4 yards per carry. Last time these teams met, Irving went for 127. I expect another performance like that.
Troy Franklin & Rome Udunze to each score 1+ TDs (+127): An easy little parlay with surprisingly great odds. Franklin has scored in all but two games this season (both blowouts) and has 6 TDs in his past 5 games. Udunze has scored 2 TDs in each of his past 3 games. In a battle of QBs, I expect them to go to their go-to guys often.
Both Teams to Score in Every Quarter (+390): In Oregon’s past 7 games, they have only two scoreless quarters out of 28. In Washington’s past 5 games, their only scoreless quarters came in the second half in that monsoon matchup against Oregon State. Last time these teams played, both scored at least 7 points in every quarter. Betting on these electric offenses to replicate their performances from the last time these teams played at nearly +400 odds seems like a valuable bet.
Oklahoma State (+14.5) vs Texas, O/U: 55.5
Big 12 Championship in Arlington, Texas
Sean’s Pick ATS: The Longhorns looked like a dominant team for the first time since September in a 57-7 win against Texas Tech in the finale last weekend. That game has a lot of people expecting them to cruise to a Big 12 Championship, but Oklahoma State has other plans
The Cowboys are one of the tougher teams to get a read on in college football. They give up an alarming amount of yards, but they also turnover opponents at a rapid rate. Their offense has overcome a slow start to the season and become one of the Big 12’s most balanced units. But can QB Allan Bowman avoid the big mistakes? He has 6 INTs in his past three games.
Mike Gundy’s teams have played up and down to their competition for years. Look no further to their 27-24 win against Oklahoma followed by a 45-3 drumming at the hands of UCF. Led by one of the nation’s most underrated & talented backs in Ollie Gordon II, I absolutely think Oklahoma State can control the clock and hang around against Texas. But actually pulling off the upset is another story. Quinn Ewers will have to make some critical mistakes in order for Texas to drop this one.
The Longhorns have a tendency to start strong, jumping out to a 14+ point lead in five of their past six games. Their problem has been closing teams out. In successive games against Kansas State & TCU, Texas was outscored 36-6 in the 4th quarter.
However, I don’t think Oklahoma State is built to overcome a large deficit. With the Big 12 Title and potential CFP birth on the line, I don’t expect Texas to cruise to the finish line like they’ve done so many times. The Longhorns win their first Big 12 Championship since 2009 in fashion, covering -14.5 vs Oklahoma State.
Jordan’s Pick ATS: Every weird CFP scenario starts with Texas losing this game.
Sean did a lovely explanation giving plenty of details behind his pick… I’ll keep it simple. Oklahoma State doesn’t have the dudes.
I think Texas wins and ruins long shot chances of Iowa, Ohio State, Louisville, or 1-loss Washington. Now, Texas fans better get ready to use their twitter fingers if Florida State wins, because the debates between 1-loss Texas, 0-loss FSU, 1-Loss Oregon, and/or a potentially 1-loss Georgia and SEC Champion Alabama (even if Texas beat them Head to Head) are more open than you think.
But, does Texas cover -14.5? The Longhorns have won by 15+ in four of the Big 12 games. With close games to Iowa State, Kansas State, Houston and TCU the cover is more of a coinflip than you might think. I am picking Texas to cover, but I don’t love it.
Points Preview: Texas has hit the over just 4 times this season. Oklahoma State started the year with 3 straight unders, but has hit the over in 6 of their final 9 games.
The Longhorns are without star RB Jonathon Brooks for the rest of the year, but Oklahoma State is one of the nation’s worst teams in the country in giving up explosive plays. I expect Quinn Ewers to hit on plenty of deep shots in this game.
On the flip side, Texas’ ferocious front should be able to neutralize the rushing attack Oklahoma State builds their offense around. Texas is giving up just 85 yards rushing at 2.9 yards per rush this season. Even so, receivers Brenna Presley & Rashod Owens pose a tall task to defend.
The over/under has gone up a couple points to 55.5 since it opened. I’m going with the under given the stout defense of Texas, but wouldn’t be surprised if a garbage-time TD pushes this to the over.
Props:
Quinn Ewers O270.5 Pass Yards (-114): Ewers has shown an ability to light it up throughout his career. He’s thrown for over 300 yards in four of his ten games this season and is facing the 113th-ranked pass defense in the country. I’d really consider taking an alternate passing total to get a little more bang for your buck.
Ollie Gordon Anytime TD Scorer (-135): Yes, Texas is elite against the run. But Ollie Gordon has 21 total TDs on the year and has scored in all but one game since September ended (it was in their anamonic 45-3 loss to UCF). He is the focal point on this offense and is sure to get enough touches to find the endzone at least once.
Alabama (+6.5) vs Georgia, O/U: 55.5
SEC Championship in Atlanta, Georgia
Sean’s Pick ATS: I’m a bit quicker than most to put that Auburn game behind me. Yes, Alabama didn’t look like the nation’s most improved team. But Auburn always plays up for Alabama. Or maybe it’s the Tide playing down to their instate rival. Either way, that game is always closer than it should be. Remember when Alabama lost to Auburn in 2017, only to go on to win the national championship?
Georgia’s defense is susceptible to teams that can punch them in the mouth and run the ball. Missouri was able to hang in there against them a month ago. Ole Miss saw their only success the entire game by doing that in their first few possessions. Alabama is better at doing it than anyone in the SEC.
A lot of this comes down to Carson Beck not needing to play great in tight, 4-quarter battles. You could count on Stetson Bennett to play his best football when it mattered most. We can’t be sure that is the case with Beck just yet.
Giving Nick Saban almost a full TD seems insane to me. I expect this one to drift closer to 5 as we approach game time, so I would absolutely jump on Alabama +6.5 while you still can. But if the line dips below 6, I’d avoid the spread and go with the O/U instead.
Jordan’s Pick ATS: For a long time this year I was a believer in the “We shouldn’t be rewarding this year’s Georgia team for the past two teams’ success.”
I have changed tune. I actually think Georgia has figured it all out and is a wagon now. I don’t think this year’s team is better than the past two, but I do think that they might have a better QB even if we haven’t seen him win it all yet.
Plus, Brock Bowers is still a thing.
I believe in Jalen Milroe, but maybe not this season.
The line being bet up to 6.5 does feel too high but I’m rolling with another favorite to cover. Georgia in the 9-13 point range.
Points Preview: My gut reaction is saying to take the over.
Georgia is 5-3 for overs against SEC teams.
Alabama is 9-2-1 on overs all year and only had one under in SEC play (Ole Miss).
All of this points to an over. But I’m hesitant to pull the trigger.
The Iron Bowl (27-24) and Georgia vs Mizzou (30-21) have me scared to bet the over. I feel this game will follow the scripts of those matchups much more closely than a shootout. Official pick is under.
Props:
Jalen Millroe U220.5 Pass Yards (-114): Millroe has surpassed this mark in just 2 of his previous 6 games. Against one of the nation’s best pass defenses, I expect this offense to revolve around Jase McClellan, Roydell Williams, and the legs of Jalen Millroe. This likely isn’t to be a shootout or a blowout by Georgia, either. So I’d be surprised if the game script mandates Alabama to throw the ball a lot.
Michigan (-21.5) vs Iowa O/U: 34.5
Big Ten Championship in Indianapolis, Indiana
Sean’s Pick ATS: There is a 10-win, top-15 team playing in a Power 5 conference championship, and Vegas isn’t even expecting them to score a full TD. That probably says more about Iowa than it does Michigan.
Iowa QB Deacon Hill was actually giving Iowa their best QB play of the season for a few games there before he went 11-28 last week against Nebraska. It’s just hard for me to imagine this offense getting much of anything done against one of the nation’s best run defenses. Hill won’t have much time to throw the ball either.
I have all the respect in the world for what Iowa has been able to accomplish this season given the injuries they’ve had to endure. But we’ve seen this movie before. Michigan’s offensive line, QB play, and skill position players are vastly better than anything the Hawkeyes have faced all season long. With the Iowa offense sure to deliver nothing but punts, the defense can only hold up for so long.
Iowa lost 31-0 against Penn State when they were far healthier than they are now. I don’t see much of a reason why Michigan can’t replicate a similar performance. The Wolverines cruise to the CFP, covering -21.5 with ease.
Jordan’s Pick ATS: 23 points is a lot. I hear you.
Like Sean said, a healthier Iowa team lost 31-0 to Penn State earlier this year. Both Michigan and Ohio State controlled a lesser Penn State this season. Playing the transitive property game isn’t always profitable, but I am going to this time.
The only Big Ten teams Michigan wouldn’t have covered 23 points against are Penn State, Maryland and Ohio State. The Wolverines even beat Purdue by 21 points in last year’s title game and Purdue could actually score unlike Iowa.
The Big Ten West is bad and this is the last time we see them represented in the Big Ten title. The Blue make a statement and Tony Petitti has a very awkward trophy handoff to Harbaugh. Michigan cover -21.5.
Points Preview: This is essentially a bet on Michigan’s team total. They managed 30 against Ohio State last week, and something tells me their offense will be put in even better situations this week. I wouldn’t even be surprised to see the Wolverines – who force nearly two turnovers per game – get a defensive score.
If Iowa is able to get a FG on the board early and avoid the shutout, it may incentivize Michigan to put in more of their backups in the likely event of a blowout. If that happens, Iowa could get a chance for some cheap points.
The only time this entire season I went on an Iowa under it burned me, but I’m going with my gut on this one. Michigan’s offense is simply superior to even an all-star team of the other opponents Iowa has played this year. Michigan hits O34.5 all by themselves.
Props:
Blake Corum to Score 2+ TDs (+115): It seems almost absurd that the odds for a player to score multiple TD is barely over even. But Corum has scored 22 TDs on the season, including two or more in each of his past four games. He is the best short-yardage back in the country but also has the vision & explosiveness to house one from 50-yards out. I think it’s likelier than not that Corum finds the endzone at least a couple times.
JJ McCarthy O1.5 Passing TDs (+130): If this game goes the way we think, one of these props has to hit. And with both of these props at plus odds, that’s all we need.
Louisville (+2.5) vs Florida State, O/U: 47.5
ACC Championship in Charlotte, NC
Sean’s Pick ATS: QB Tate Rodemaker didn’t inspire much confidence against what has been a porous Florida defense for much of the year, completing less than 50% of his passes. He is now 25 of 48 for 351 yards and 2 TDs in the past two games. He hasn’t thrown an INT, but he has been sacked 5 times.
With the run game still inconsistent and a pass game that doesn’t require much back-end help, the Seminole offense is a major liability without Jordan Travis. Luckily, their defense has been lights out since he went down. They’ll need to contain a two-headed monster of Jawhar Jordan and Isaac Guerendo in the opposing backfield, though. Both are lightning fast and can make defenders miss in the open field.
The determining factor in this game very well may might be turnovers. Jack Plummer has been a pleasant surprise this year, but he has 11 INTs in 8 different games this season. Rodemaker hasn’t made a critical mistake yet, but will be asked to do much more than he has in each of the past two games.
This is perhaps the most fascinating matchup of Championship Weekend. Louisville’s weakness all season has been in the back end of their defense, but Tate Rodemaker struggled against a sub-.500 FCS team and a Florida team that ranks 71st in total defense and 122nd in yards per play allowed. Something has to give, and it’s impossible to tell what.
My money is on the more proven QB and the team that has absolutely nothing to lose. Florida State is playing for a spot in the CFP. Win or lose, Louisville is going to a NY6 game. Jack Plummer has been playing his best football since their inexplicable loss to Pitt. The Cardinals ride a dynamic offense and ‘nothing to lose’ mindset to their first ever ACC Championship. Take the points if you want to be safe or the ML at +115.
Jordan’s Pick ATS: This is easily the tightest of the Power 5 titles and that’s partly because people want to fade both teams.
Louisville has lost to two pretty meh teams including the ultimate self sabotage in a loss to Kentucky last week.
FSU people probably would’ve wanted to fade even before Jordan Travis got hurt. His replacement, Tate Rodemaker, went 12/25 for 234 yards and no TDsin a close win against a not good Gators team.
The ACC is definitely a conference the average fan wants to see in the playoff. Partially because I went chalk with favorites in all the other games. Partially because I think FSU has been due for a letdown since the BC game. Louisville covers +2.5.
PS love adjusted line UL +3.5 just saying!
Points Preview: This is one of the tougher over/unders to predict.
Both Teams have been about .500 against the totals all season. Most of the lines have been in this same upper 40s range too.
There are two spinzones to make:
When these teams play good opponents it is usually higher scoring
or
Tate Rodemaker is the QB and Louisville will want to run the ball leading to an under.
If one of those sounds better to you than the other, go for it. Our official pick is an under 47.5.
Props:
Tate Rodemaker U191.5 Passing Yards (-114): This is just a bet on what we’ve seen to date. Rodemaker hasn’t shown great accuracy or an ability to extend plays and make throws on the run. Betting on the over here would be purely speculative. Yes, Louisville has struggled against the pass this year. But I expect Jeff Brohm to dial up the pressure and force Rodemaker to make quick decisions. We’ll see how he handles it, but I’m not very confident that he can take the top off the defense.
Isaac Guerendo Anytime TD Scorer (+210): Guerendo has come on strong late for Louisville, scoring 7 TDs in the past 6 games and racking up 100+ total yards in 3 of his past 4. I expect the Cardinals to pound the rock in this game. One of Guerendo or Jawhar Jordan should find the endzone, so I’m going to take the one with the better odds. If interested, Jawhar Jordan’s odds to score a TD is +100.
SMU (+3.5) vs Tulane, O/U: 47.5
AAC Championship in New Orleans, LA
Sean’s Pick: This spread has slipped from 4.5, making it a little less appealing on the Mustangs’ front. Even so, Tulane QB Michael Pratt hasn’t been playing his best football in November. Tulane has played only one team with a winning record this month (UTSA last week) and Pratt completed just 40% of his passes and posted a 37 QBR.
On the flip side, SMU QB Preston Stone was lost for the season last week. Backup Kevin Jennings has seen some action this year, but still has only 24 passing attempt on the year. SMU has been a well-balanced offense, though. They have three RBs that have combined for over 1,500 rush yards and 14 TDs at over 5.5 ypc.
It’s hard to set expectations for SMU after losing their starting QB, but Jennings’ scrambling ability is sure to come in handy in what is supposed to be a rainy game. Tulane hasn’t made a habit of dominating teams this season – especially against the small number of quality teams they’ve faced. This game can certainly go either way, but the safe choice is SMU +3.5. But I wouldn’t be as confident if that line slips below 3.
Jordan’s Pick: I can spin zone this matchup any way I really want.
Is Tulane’s coach going to be distracted by the coaching carousel or motivated? Is Tulane due to lose a tight game finally? Or are they really good at winning close games? Is the loss to TCU a big warning sign for SMU or just a distraction from September away from their great recent play? All of it just means, it should be a close game and that it is truly hard to predict.
Tulane has been awesome for two years in a row, but I think SMU is playing better football right now. There is too much value in SMU to cover.
Miami OH (+7.5) vs Toledo, O/U: 43.5
MAC Championship in Detroit, MI
Sean’s Pick: Toledo’s lone loss was in the opener at Illinois when a miraculous 4th-down conversion setup the game-winning FG for the Illini. Toledo played Miami earlier in the season – a 21-17 win on the road. The Rockets jumped out to a 21-3 halftime lead but mustered just 67 total yards in the 2nd half, punting on every single possession.
However, Miami’s starting QB Brett Gabbert was lost for the season towards the end of that Toledo game. Aveon Smith has not been nearly as productive, completing just 52% of his passes and a 1:1 TD:INT. But he is effective with his legs, running for more yards in 4 games as a starter than Gabbert did all year.
Miami OH is averaging just 22ppg with Smith as their starting QB and will be facing the MAC’s best defense. But this Redhawk defense contained Dequan Finn last time they faced. Miami is 9-3 ATS the spread this year, so I am a little nervous about this large number. Instead, I’m taking U43.5.
Jordan’s Pick: The two best Tuesday teams meet in the MAC title. Dequan Finn and Toledo are awesome. Still, -7.5 is too much. I like Miami to cover like they did in the regular season. I still like Toledo to win so pairing those bets together could add a complicated investment/rooting strategy when switching to this game during commercials.
New Mexico State (+10.5) vs Liberty, O/U: 55.5
C-USA Championship in Lynchburg, VA
Sean’s Pick: Liberty is my top-ranked G5 team and would be my pick for the NY6 bid if they finish undefeated. Led by a lethal trio of QB Jonathan Bennett, RB Quinton Cooley, and WR CJ Daniels, this offense can beat you any number of ways. But their defense has showed some cracks, allowing over 26ppg in the second half of the season.
New Mexico State is no slouch, winning their final 8 games of the regular season. When these teams squared off back in week 3, Liberty won 33-17. But Aggie QB Diego Pavia has saved his best football for November, utilizing his legs & a deep group of pass-catchers to light up the scoreboard in quality wins against Western Kentucky and Auburn.
On paper, I’m leaning towards Liberty to cover. But it’s rare that a team can dominate another quality opponent twice in the same season. Rematches tend to favor the loser of the first matchup, so I wouldn’t be surprised at all if this game goes down to the wire. Both offenses can be effective on the ground and through the air, so I’m taking O55.5.
Jordan’s Pick: Liberty is a wagon. They would’ve covered -10.5 in 9 (almost 10) of their games this season including the week 2 matchup with New Mexico State. My algorithm is telling me the spread is too high and should be closer to 7 points but I kind of just think Liberty rolls.
Sean’s Hail Mary Parlay
- Louisville ML (+118)
- Michigan -21.5 (-110)
- Bo Nix O300 Pass Yards (-180)
- Alabama +10.5 (-205)
- Blake Corum Anytime TD (-340)
FanDuel Odds: +1146
I outlined above why I’m rolling with the Cardinals over the Seminoles in the ACC Championship. In short, Tate Rodemaker’s performance over the past two weeks coupled with a run game that hasn’t found its footing all season long makes me question if they can keep up with Louisville’s well-rounded offensive attack.
I love Michigan to dominate Iowa. The Hawkeyes have been a good story this season, but the talent gap in every single position group will be noticeable in Indy on Saturday.
I took an alternate passing yardage total for Bo Nix against Washington to be safe. He’s topped 300 in 6 of his past 7 games (the one exception being against Utah which was over at halftime). In their last matchup, Nix put 337 on Washington.
I also took an alternate spread with Alabama. I think there is a really good chance they pull off this upset against Georgia. But with the Bulldogs not being tested much this year (I’ve been on record all season long saying how overrated Ole Miss & Tennessee are), I’m not positive what to expect out of them. A punishing run game is the strength of this Alabama offense. I also think it is the achilles heel of Georgia’s defense. That should be enough to keep this game tight into the 4th quarter at the very least.
I took Corum to score 2+ TDs in the prop earlier. Taking him to just score 1 boosted this parlay’s odds from +863 to well above +1100. I think that is well worth it, considering Corum is a shoe-in to find the endzone at least once. He’s done so in every single game this season.
Jordan’s Hail Mary Parlay
Check back for Jordan’s can’t-miss parlay!
I have a special Pick-your-adventure Parlay for you guys.
- Louisville ADJ line +3.5 (-128)
- Blake Corum to score 2+TD (+130)
- Georgia -5.5 (-112)
- Washington ML (+280) OR Oregon -9.5 (-115)
Here is the beauty of this pick your poison parlay. It can’t miss!
I feel very good about taking Louisville as field goal dogs. That gives you flexibility, in case the ending of that game goes just wrong enough.
Corum to score 2+ TDs is free money. Even if it is Iowa. I’m serious. All this dude does is score touchdowns. Montee Ball Wisconsin level nose for the endzone.
I think Georgia rolls Alabama. I also don’t think the Bulldogs make it if they don’t win so they will be play with a NEED to win.
So with those three squared away, we get to decision time for the Washington Oregon game. I talked about how I see this game going one of two ways. 1) Oregon is way better than Washington like the books have thought forever or 2) Washington surprises everyone, proves themselves, and wins another close one.
The books don’t think Oregon will win so why should you bet that way? If you believe Oregon rolls this Parlay combo is +1349 on Fanduel. But the best part? You can do both. If you take Washington ML it will balloon up to +2846.
I plan on putting a $5 bet on each and feel good about one of them hitting it big. If by some chance Oregon wins by 4 on Friday and ruins both, we have all of Saturday to chase it.
Have a great Championship Weekend everyone!