Power ranking the top teams in College Basketball one month into the season. I break down my methodology, vaguely mention tiers and include a waiting room for teams primed to leap into the rankings.
by Jordan Beckley
It’s been a great first month of College Basketball.
UConn won the Empire Classic and looks unbeatable again. Until they lost to Kansas in Lawrence.
Marquette took care of Illinois, beat UCLA, handled Kansas and looks like a National Title contender. Then they lost to Wisconsin, again.
Purdue also beat Marquette, as well as Gonzaga, and Tennessee on their way to a Maui Title and earning the no. 1 spot in November for the third straight year before once again being upset in a December Big Ten game.
That is all to say we have a full month of results and tape to sort through and attempt to power rank the top 16 teams.
Why 16 teams?
In my opinion there is usually an obvious demarcation line somewhere around the 12th best team and the 20th best team. Teams ranked 20-40 are usually so close to one another that the rise and fall in rankings between them is often just scheduling, a hot shooting streak, or luck.
Meanwhile, there is usually a cluster of “great teams” that have real separation from those “good teams” from 20-40. Let’s call them my Super Sixteen.
I will be updating my Super Sixteen every month instead of every week. Why monthly?
Weekly rankings make a lot of sense in football with one game for every team, but with uneven scheduling and different numbers of games weekly ratings make less sense for basketball.
So, at the beginning of each month I will distill the results of all the best teams to form a new edition. Here is the December Edition of my Super Sixteen.
1. Arizona
My number one team for now is Arizona. It would have been Purdue or UConn but both teams lost on Friday.
The Wildcats have one of the best wins in Basketball with a true-road win over Duke. Returning players like Oumar Ballo and Kylan Boswell have made leaps. Transfers have filled in the gaps PERFECTLY. Two of them are players with deep March experience in Keshad Johnson from SDSU and Caleb Love from UNC.
Tommy Lloyd’s team is great on offense once again, but this year they are a top 10 defense on KenPom too. Arizona hasn’t played the same schedule as some of these other teams, but they play Wisconsin, Purdue, Alabama and Florida Atlantic in four straight games so we will know a lot more by the January Edition.
2. Houston
Houston easily could be the pick for no. 1, but I am going to punish them for their weak schedule. The best wins Houston has had are Xavier and Dayton and their only good remaining non-conference game will be a December 16th clash with Texas A&M.
Still, Kelvin Sampson has a killer team once again. Baylor transfer LJ Cryer is thriving as the lead guy. The Cougars have a bunch of depth. Houston once again is the best defense in the country according to opposing PPG and KenPom.
Houston is very much the same caliber of team as years past. This year we will get to see that team play double digit games versus Big 12 teams. Will they be exposed like the Haters want? Probably not.
3. UConn
I love this UConn team.
Tristen Newton is cementing that he is one of the best guards in the country. Rutgers transfer Cam Spencer is showing how much of a winning player he is. Alex Karaban is the Husky making a super sophomore leap.
UConn already had controlling wins against Texas and Indiana before losing a close one in Phog Allen. The scary part?
There’s still so much room for growth. Donovan Clingan hasn’t put it all together after his foot injury. Freshmen Soloman Ball and Stephon Castle (who is recovering from injury) have much higher ceilings to reach.
I probably should have just kept UConn at 1 even with the Kansas loss. We will get to see the reigning champs take on North Carolina tonight plus Gonzaga before they begin the gauntlet of Big East play.
4. Purdue
Not much is needed to be said about the Boilermakers.
Zach Edey is awesome. Braden Smith has made a leap. Matt Painter is one of the best coaches doing it.
Yet, a few missed shots opened up the game for a smaller Northwestern to beat them. Purdue still demands to be up at the top after beating Marquette, Tennessee and Gonzaga in three straight days.
Purdue also beat Houston’s best win Xavier by much more and will meet Arizona and Alabama in neutral site games before going Big Ten only mode. With wins in those games Purdue could quite easily have the best resume in the country. That might be needed when seeing how soft the Big Ten looks.
5. Marquette
The Golden Eagles are really, really good. On their best night offensively, I’m not sure anyone can beat them.
But not every night is your best night and that leaves you vulnerable. The question all season for Marquette will be is their defense good enough to win another Big East Title and this time make a deep March run?
No matter what their trio of Oso Ighodaro, Kam Jones and Tyler Kolek are good enough to keep them on Super Sixteen all season. The reigning Big East champions have already beat Kansas, UCLA, and won at Illinois. The loss at the Kohl Center to Wisconsin doesn’t deter my feelings.
6. Kansas
Kansas is officially the cutoff of “Title contenders, Title Favorites” or whatever you want to call the top tier of basketball teams.
I didn’t want to put them there. Go ahead and label me a Kansas hater (at least this year), but the Jayhawks have earned the right to be in this same group. I don’t believe that Dajuan Harris and Kevin McCullar are the kind of guys that Kansas needs to lead this team to eternal glory. I have been pessimistic of the fit of KJ Adams next to Hunter Dickinson. Everybody is questioning their bench.
None of that mattered when they beat UConn. Some of that mattered in the loss to Marquette.
My resentment stems from them being handed the no. 1 overall when we didn’t see them earn it yet. Even if this is a flawed team from a Jayhawk standard, they still are capable of winning it all. That’s Bill Self Kansas baby.
7. Tennessee
The next handful or so teams fall into a tier of “If it all comes together, they could win it all.”
It hasn’t all come together yet for the Vols.
Atypically, the transfers Dalton Knecht and Jordan Gainey have fit right in. It’s the returning starters that are still trying to find their role.
Zakai Zeigler is undoubtedly one of the best guards in college basketball, yet he has has a weird “will he start or will he come off the bench” relationship in Knoxville. Right now, the shots aren’t falling for him as he recovers from his season-ending injury from earlier this calendar year.
Other returning players like Santiago Vescovi, Josiah Jordan-James and Jahmai Mashack are all also figuring out what their role is this season.
The difference between them and a Kentucky? All of these Vols players have won at a high level before. UT has 5th year guys trying to figure it out, not 18 year olds. Don’t let the 4-3 record fool you, Tennessee is 11th in KenPom right now and has all the guys to be able to finish the year at no. 1.
8. FAU
Your opinion on Florida Atlantic says a lot about how you view mid-majors as a whole.
If you think the Owls are overrated and argue that last year was a fluke and that they lost to BRYANT! this year, you probably hate mid-majors and root for a team from a power 6 conference.
If you think that Florida Atlantic is probably underrated at 8 after tearing apart a good Texas A&M team, undressing Virginia Tech, and shellacking two high level mid-major teams in College of Charleston and Liberty, well you probably root for a mid-major.
Don’t let one game where Dusty May’s team shot 5-30 from three define your opinion of the Owls. Florida Atlantic is 42-5 in the past two seasons. Examine their total body of work and you know that FAU is a top 10 caliber team.
9. Creighton
Speaking of total body of work, Creighton has one weird loss and a dominant collection of seven wins.
The Bluejays lost one game this year to Colorado State who just missed out on being in the Super Sixteen. Coach McDermott’s team has been beating everybody else by a million. That includes them embarrassing Nebraska by 29 points in Lincoln on Sunday.
Do I want to see Creighton against better competition? Sure. That will come in what seems to be a goliath battle at the top of the Big East.
For now, Trey Alexander is an All-Conference level dude, Baylor Scheierman is liable to go off in any game, Ryan Kalkbrenner is still a brick wall in front of the rim on defense and a tower in the paint on the other side, and Steven Ashworth is fitting in pretty well in Ryan Nembhard’s place.
Fun Stat: Creighton is shooting the 4th most threes in the country at 31 a game, and is the 23rd best team by shooting % at 39.2. The Bluejays could ride hot hands to a National Title if you let them.
10. Baylor
Baylor needs to play some better teams.
The Bears seem to be a very good team at 8-0, but to be higher than they are we will need to see them do it against better teams than Auburn and Florida.
Still, Coach Drew has another lottery pick in Freshman Ja’Kobe Walter, transfers blending in perfectly in Rayj Dennis and Jayden Nunn, and a potential game changing big in 5-Star Freshman Yves Missi.
The Bears have one of the best offenses in the country (no. 1 KenPom, 4th in ppg), but how will their defense perform against teams like Texas, Houston, & Kansas in Big 12 play? Baylor has the ability to join the upper tier if they win against the best of the Big 12.
11. Gonzaga
The biggest lie that casuals will say every single year is, “Well of course Gonzaga is a __ seed, but they haven’t played anybody!”
While that isn’t true about a West Coast Conference that has been quietly much more competitive than people will admit, the Bulldogs also consistently schedule the toughest out of conference lineup in the country.
Here are some teams that Gonzaga have played already or will play: USC, Syracuse, UCLA, Washington, San Diego State, Purdue and UConn. The Bulldogs have the 14th strongest schedule so far according to Sportsreference.
Beyond the rant about scheduling, Mark Few and Gonzaga are pretty good this year even if they aren’t great yet. In the first year without Drew Timme, their are a lot of moving parts still settling into their spot.
Ryan Nembhard, Creighton transfer and younger brother of Gonzaga alum Andrew Nembhard, is running the point guard spot. Nembhard’s arrival has moved Nolan Hickman to an off-ball role. Wyoming transfer Graham Ike is trying his best to fill the hole left by the All-American. Other bigs like Anton Watson and Ben Gregg are getting more opportunities too. Freshmen Braden Huff and Dusty Stromer show plenty of promise.
Gonzaga might not be a National Title contender this year, but you would be foolish to think that they can’t beat some of the teams in front of them to make the Final Four.
12. Duke
If you want to tell me Duke is the most talented team in the country, I wouldn’t fight you.
A team with NBA players like Tyrese Proctor, Kyle Filipowski, Mark Mitchell and eventually some combination of their star freshmen Caleb Foster, Jared McCain and Sean Stewart is definitely more powerful than most opponents.
But, results matter. So far that NBA combination of players has gone 1-3 against teams in Power 6 conferences after losing their ACC opener to Georgia Tech last week. That stat sounds cooler than it is. Duke will win more than 25% of its games in conference play. Losing 3 games against Arizona, at Arkansas and at Georgia Tech by 14 combined points should not scare you away.
When it is all said and done, Duke has plenty of buttons to push to be able to get back into title contention. Will Jon Scheyer figure out how to press them in the right order to unlock his game-breaking talent mod?
13. Kentucky
All the craziness of Championship Saturday might have lead you to miss Kentucky lost to UNC Wilmington, because well I missed that the Wildcats lost that game.
We are back to Old Calipari Kentucky where he trots out 5-star freshmen and wins on talent over experience. Top recruits Rob Dillingham and DJ Wagner have been exciting with more potential to harness. Reed Sheppard has been a Kentucky-grown Revelation. Antonio Reeves has been the adult in the room.
There is still room for the Wildcats to grow with Aaron Bradshaw coming back from injury, eligibility looming for Zvonimir Ivisic, and the young players improving under added experience.
The UNC Wilmington stumble is a reminder of their youth. The thrashing of Miami is a statement on their ability.
14. North Carolina
Many will try to talk about North Carolina’s success as addition by subtraction with Caleb Love no longer there.
In reality, it is addition by addition as Hubert Davis added several key players this offseason. 5-Star Freshman Elliot Cadeau brings tremendous court vision and passing to a team that needed some. Stanford transfer Harrison Ingram brings a versatility with his jack-of-all-trades skillset that unlocks the UNC offense when he plays small-ball 4. Notre Dame transfer Cormac Ryan brings another dimension and scoring pop.
Those additions along with Armando Bacot and RJ Davis taking on leading roles have North Carolina up to no. 9 in the AP poll. So, why aren’t the Tar Heels higher on my Super Sixteen big board?
Yes, UNC blitzed the Vols for 100 points in the ACC-SEC challenge. The Heels also gave up 92 points in the Dean Dome. The defense is a question mark and they’ve gone 2-1 in games against good opponents all by slim margins. Hubert Davis needs to figure out his starting lineup still. There are things to figure out still in Chapel Hill.
Remember the margin between them and a team they beat in no. 7 Tennessee in my Super Sixteen isn’t a ton like it would be with a team ranked no. 23. I would still take Tennessee in a game in Knoxville. If they had a rematch in Chapel Hill, I would probably take UNC.
There will be plenty of chances for UNC to prove they should be higher with their next three games being against ranked Oklahoma, Kentucky in the CBS Sports Classic, and a game tonight against UConn in Madison Square Garden.
15. Miami
These next two are a step down again from the top 14. I think collectively the college basketball world wants Miami to be really good.
Coach Larranaga is very likable, last year’s Canes team was really fun, Norchad Omier seems like a great guy, and well Miami might just not be that good. The Hurricanes are ranked 46th in KenPom with a defense ranked close to 100th best in the country.
Now, terrible defense isn’t new as that’s about what they were last year, but Miami masked it with the number 6 offense. This season they have the number 26 offense overall. Their best wins are over a Georgia team and Kansas State team aren’t that impressive.
Still, Wooga Poplar has made a jump, Matthew Cleveland has fit right in, Norchad Omier is that guy, and there is room for Nijel Pack to hopefully improve. Coach L still has the ability to manufacture a top 10 offense once again with that lineup of talent.
That is what this is, a reputation pick for Coach L. Miami could crater and that Kentucky loss was a warning or they could wake up a bit and realize the Final Four and ACC championship will have to be earned again.
16. Texas A&M
For my final slot, I could pick a team with more unrealized potential like Texas. Or I could pick a team with better on the court results like Colorado State. But I will go with a team who has a good results and proven talent in the Aggies.
A&M has a great blend of experienced players with Boots Radford, Henry Coleman and Wade Taylor. Buzz Williams might have the best backcourt in the country with Taylor and Radford. The team is still missing one ingredient in Julius Marble and it is unclear if he will be back. Even if he isn’t they deserve a spot here.
Their credentials? Essentially the same team finished 2nd in the SEC last year to Alabama, their two losses are to no. 8 on the Super Sixteen Florida Atlantic and at Virginia. The Aggies have wins over top 30 KenPom teams in Iowa State and their win in Columbus vs Ohio State continues to look better and better.
Right now the Super Sixteen has a pretty hard 14 with two teams tagging along to make the article title pretty. Texas A&M should be right there with Tennessee, Alabama, Arkansas, & Kentucky to compete for the SEC title.
They feel like a team that it would be disappointing if they didn’t make a Sweet Sixteen while at the same time being a pretty out there pick to make the Final Four. Pretty good, not great.
In the Waiting Room
Here are a few teams that are in the waiting room to get into the Super Sixteen. At any point the waiting room could have anywhere from ten teams to just two teams.
Right now here are six teams that might not have history of success, the right amount of wins, maybe have one loss preventing them from being in the Super Sixteen or haven’t had bad enough losses to kick them out of the Waiting Room entirely. *Cough* Villanova *Cough*.
Texas – This Texas team is fine. There’s room for them to be much better, but as of right now they aren’t as good as the teams above them.
Illinois – The Illini clock in at 18 as the 2nd best Big Ten team. Terrence Shannon Jr. is awesome. Is anybody else good on this team?
Colorado State – Impressive wins over Creighton and Colorado have put the Rams in the Waiting Room. Keep an eye on this Mountain West team.
BYU – The Cougars are balling and are a Top 10 KenPom team. They have a win over San Diego State, but I need to see more to put them in the Super Sixteen.
Wisconsin – The Badgers will not be denied. With wins over UVA and Marquette, maybe they should be higher. Still, the loss to Providence sticks in my mind more than it should.
UVA – An up and down start, but Virginia has the talent to be in the Super Sixteen. A recent upset of Texas A&M shows the upside, but a loss to Wisconsin and a tight win to West Virginia show the Cavs’ shortfalls.
That’s it for the December Edition of the Super Sixteen. Next month, I will drop my annual January addition titled: “The __ Teams that Matter in College Basketball” to help the Football fans parachuting into Basketball.
Can’t wait to see what we learn about all these top teams by the New Year!