by Sean Szymczak
The Big Ten is featured in 9 bowl games this post-season. Six of those bowl games are against the SEC and all but one are against a Power-5 opponent. Needless to say, the Big Ten’s reputation is on the line this bowl season.
The Big Ten vs SEC debate will become a hot topic as they add their signature new teams in 2024, but it all starts with how the two power conferences matchup against each other in 2023.
Michigan vs Alabama
CFP at the Rose Bowl, Monday January 1st
What’s at Stake: The magnitude of this game goes without speaking. The winner of his matchup will earn an opportunity to compete for a national championship and should enter that game as the favorite. But this goes a little deeper than that for Michigan.
First of all, Jim Harbaugh’s struggles in the postseason is no secret. He is 1-6 in bowl games and on the heels of back-to-back embarrassing playoff performances. Michigan’s reputation (and frankly, the Big Ten’s reputation) is on the line on New Year’s Day. A win over Alabama would be a slap in the face of every SEC homer who refuses to acknowledge any other conference as legitimate and would give the Big Ten tremendous momentum towards being recognized as the nation’s best. But if one of Michigan’s best teams in the history of their program – and one of the most dominant in Big Ten history – loses to a team that arguably should not have even been included in the playoff, it’ll be hard to ignore the chatter by the national media. God knows ESPN doesn’t need more ammo to devalue the Big Ten while propping up the SEC as we move into the 12-team playoff era.
On top of that, Michigan’s future is in tremendous flux. The cheating allegations may have lost steam on TV and social media, but the Wolverines are still in the midst of a massive investigation by the NCAA. Scholarship loss, postseason ban, and vacation of wins is not off the table. If this veteran-laden squad can’t get over the hump and win a national championship, it’s hard to envision Michigan getting there any time soon.
Finally, Jim Harbaugh’s future with the program is still a question mark. Never mind the possibility that the NCAA’s investigation could result in a long-term suspension for the head coach, but the school has been trying for nearly a year to get him to sign an extension. Recent reports have indicated they are aligned on salary but Michigan wants him to sign an agreement saying he won’t interview for the NFL this off-season – something Harbaugh is not willing to agree to. His end goal is to return the the big leagues and try to win a Super Bowl. He would have already left had he received an offer in either of the past two off-seasons. This could very well be Harbaugh’s last chance to win a college national championship. But maybe coming up short could motivate him to bypass NFL interviews and return for another year – you never know.
Michigan’s Key to Victory: The Wolverines should find at least mild success against the Tide’s defense. Alabama allowed 244 rush yards at nearly 6 yards per carry against Auburn. They have also struggled to contain the elite QBs on their schedule. In their games against Quinn Ewers, Jayden Daniels, & Carson Beck, they allowed 66% completion, 270 yards per game, and a combined 5:1 TD:INT. JJ McCarthy proved against Ohio State that he is absolutely on the level of those quarterbacks. And Michigan has a better offensive line than all three of those teams, even with Zak Zinter out.
The key to this game will come down to the defensive side of the ball for Michigan. The most mobile QB they have faced this year was Taulia Tagovailoa at Maryland, and he is a far cry from Jalen Millroe’s athleticism. The Wolverines will have to defend a QB unlike anything they have seen over this three-year run. Junior Colson, Michael Barrett, and Ernest Hausman at LB have been the surest tacklers in college football this year. But do they have the speed to keep up with Millroe when he scrambles?
If Michigan can contain Millroe and limit his impact on the ground, this could be an easy win for the Wolverines. But his ability to extend plays and accelerate past defenders in the second level could be a nightmare for Michigan’s defense. It could also force their offense to play a style they are not quite as comfortable with in order to play keep up.
B1G Player to Watch: Kool-Aid McKinstry is going to make Roman Wilson’s life very difficult. Cornelius Johnson has been the same reliable receiver he was last year, but hasn’t emerged as a real homerun threat this season.
Michigan’s TEs – particularly Colston Loveland – are going to be key to Michigan’s offense being able to really open it up or having to rely on the ‘3 yards and a cloud of dust’ strategy. Loveland had a big day against Ohio State by exposing matchups against linebackers. I expect him to have another big game in the playoff.
Prediction: Michigan’s offense decided to open it up in a way we really hadn’t seen all season in last year’s playoff against TCU. I expect to see that again, combining punishing jumbo sets with five-wide formations. JJ McCarthy is going to show the nation exactly how talented he is with his arm and with his legs. The Wolverines will be able to move the ball and keep the pressure on Alabama’s offense.
But Jalen Millroe is sure to make his fair share of plays. I don’t think Michigan will be capable of containing his ability to scramble all game. RBs Jase McClellan and Roydell Williams are both healthy and possess great ability to catch passes out of the backfield. That will also be a strain on the Wolverine defense.
Michigan’s ability to run the ball for 3-5 yards at a time the length of the field while killing half of a quarter will ultimately be the difference in this game. They’ll be able to hit on some big plays in the passing game early on and crush Alabama late in the game. I don’t question Jalen Millroe’s ability to keep Alabama in this game until the final minutes though.
Michigan: 34, Alabama: 30
Ohio State vs Missouri
Cotton Bowl, Friday December 29th
What’s at Stake: Listen, the season is already over for Ohio State. They collectively failed every preseason goal they might have had – to beat Michigan, win the Big Ten, and at least get the CFP. This is now about 2024 for the Buckeyes.
With Kyle McCord and a about a dozen backups already hitting the portal, it’s become evident that Ohio State is going to be more aggressive than ever in the transfer portal. It’s already confirmed they are going after a QB in the transfer portal. But they’ve already missed on Cam Ward and Riley Leonard, leaving Dante Moore as the only quality starter in the portal that has been connected to OSU. Maybe the Buckeyes end up picking up a backup QB and rolling the dice on who they have in the room.
Whoever it is will also have to compete with Devin Brown and Lincoln Keinholz for the starting job. Brown is starting this game and will have the opportunity to stake his claim as Ohio State’s next QB. This position battle will be fascinating to watch all off-season, and it starts against Missouri. But the Buckeyes are targeting guys at nearly every position as well.
WRs Marvin Harrison & Emeka Egbuka, RB Treveyon Henderson, OG Donovan Jackson, DEs JT Tuimoloau & Jack Sawyer, DT Mike Hall, and CBs Denzel Burke & Jordan Hancock all have massive decisions as to whether return or go pro, but they are all planning on suiting up in the Cotton Bowl. Even so, this game could very well end up being a showcase for younger players. I expect a nothing to lose, let it rip approach – much like we saw in the 2021 Rose Bowl against Utah where CJ Stroud threw for nearly 600 yards.
This game isn’t necessarily about winning for Ohio State. It’s for getting younger guys time and starting to prepare for 2024. But the players seem to be taking this game very seriously which is a scary proposition for Missouri.
Ohio State’s Key to Victory: Is it bad if I just say effort? Ohio State is better than Missouri. Plain and simple. But a lot will depend on how many opt-outs there are and how badly the players that do play want to win the game.
At the end of the day, this game will come down to Devin Brown. He doesn’t need to be great to get this win, but he has to avoid turnovers. Brown has showed flashes of elite arm talent in his limited time this year, but he’s also been a little erratic with his arm.
If Missouri is forced to at least respect Devin Brown’s arm, Ohio State should win this game. But if he struggles to complete passes within 15 yards consistently, loses his confidence, and allows Missouri to crowd the line of scrimmage, it could be a tough day for this Buckeye offense.
B1G Player to Watch: There is a deep group of talented young receivers behind Marvin Harrison, Egbuka, and Fleming who haven’t seen many meaningful snaps yet in their careers. Carnell Tate, Brandon Innis, and Jayden Ballard may all have an opportunity to shine in the Cotton Bowl.
Carnell Tate is the guy to watch of the trio. He already established himself as the leader of the second-string receivers as a true freshman, catching 17 passes and seeing some meaningful snaps against Penn State, Wisconsin, and Rutgers. Tate has a smaller frame but stands at 6’2″, has great speed, and is a savvy route-runner. He looks like Ohio State’s next 1st-round receiver.
Prediction: Devin Brown has been getting rave reviews out of Buckeye practice over the past week. He brings an energy to this locker room that seemed to be missing under Kyle McCord. There’s a reason the QB battle went into the third week of the season, and this matchup against Missouri will be Devin Brown’s first real chance to show the nation why.
I expect and up-and-down performance from Brown. His talent is undeniable – he has a rocket for an arm and has good ability to extend plays and scramble. He is sure to miss on some throws and be a little erratic with his accuracy, but Devin Brown is certainly capable of making plays to a loaded group of playmakers. It could take a while to get going, but Ohio State will find success against Missouri in the 2nd half.
On the other hand, I don’t expect Missouri to find much success against Ohio State’s defense. Even if guys like CB Denzel Burke, DE JT Tuimoloau, and LB Tommy Eichenberg don’t play heavy minutes, there is a plethora of young talent like CB Jermaine Mathews, DE Caden Curry, and LB CJ Hicks waiting in the wing.
The Tiger offense is predicated on setting up the play-action with RB Cody Schrader and pushing the ball downfield to WR Luther Burden. QB Brady Cook doesn’t scare me as a passer, but his ability to use his legs could definitely produce some big plays out of the backfield and give Missouri some sustained drives. But Ohio State’s stout red-zone defense won’t allow Missouri to hang too long as Devin Brown and the offense pick up steam as the game goes on.
Ohio State: 31, Missouri: 20
Penn State vs Ole Miss
Peach Bowl, Saturday December 30th
What’s at Stake: Penn State’s struggles on offense have been well documented all season long. But the Nittany Lions have replaced Mike Yurcic with 2023 OC of the Year Andy Kotelnicki. Drew Allar is coming off his best game of the season against Michigan State and will look to head into the off-season with some more momentum with a good outing against a fairly porous Ole Miss defense. It feels crucial to Drew Allar’s development that he end this tumultuous season on a high note.
The Big Ten has six bowl games against the SEC this season. But the Peach Bowl, Cotton Bowl, & Rose Bowl will definitely be watched and judged more so than the others. Penn State will have an opportunity to prove just how good they are in front of a national audience. Ole Miss is 10-2 but got handled by Georgia and Alabama. This is a great measuring stick to determine how far Penn State really was from college football’s elite in 2023.
Penn State will also be playing for the reputation of the Big Ten, as the rest of the conference largely underperformed this season. If Ohio State, Michigan, and Penn State can go 3-0 in their bowl games, it will speak loudly as the ‘Big Ten vs SEC’ debate rages on. But if the conference’s big three emerge with a losing record, it will make it harder to defend the Big Ten.
Penn State’s Key to Victory: This game will all depend on how this secondary holds up against Tre Harris, Dante Wade, & Jordan Watkins in the passing game. If Kaleb King, Johnnie Dixon, & Daequan Hardy all play, I think Penn State will have a lot of success defensively. But the Nittany Lions could be tested if their young guys are called upon.
This will also determine how much is needed out of Drew Allar to win this game. If this turns into a track meet, it’ll interesting to see how Allar holds up. He really fell apart down the stretch against Ohio State and Michgian.
B1G Player to Watch: Penn State’s wide receiver room might be getting a makeover after a disappointing season. KeAndre Lambert-Smith didn’t develop into a complete receiver and it looks like the coaches whiffed on transfers Dante Cephas and Malik McClain (two guys I was really excited about coming into this season).
But of the guys we’ll see play in the Peach Bowl, I’m most excited to see Omari Evans. He was an unheralded recruit but was the star of the spring last season. But Evans didn’t get on the field much in 2023, until the last couple games. He connected with Allar on a beautiful 60-yard TD bomb against Michigan State and could see an expanded role in this bowl game. Omari Evans has great speed and could finally have an opportunity to show why fans & coaches were so high on him coming into the season.
Prediction: I don’t expect a ton of opt-outs from a senior-laden Penn State team that will surely want to go out on a high note after a disappointing season. Ole Miss struggled mightily against the only two elite defenses they played this season in Georgia and Alabama.
Although Penn State’s offense has never looked quite as explosive as either of those teams, their defense is every bit as good if not better. Ole Miss won’t be able to move the ball consistently against this Penn State front. They’ll be forced to pick up chunk yardage through the air which is usually their bread & butter. Jaxson Dart will have a few big plays in him to his elite receiving trio, but I don’t think they will be able to do it consistently.
It’ll be really interesting to see how Penn State comes into this game. They could come in ready to run the ball down Ole Miss’s mouth, control the clock, and play conservatively. That could definitely be a recipe for a win, as the Rebels have struggled against the run. But I wouldn’t be surprised to see James Franklin open it up a bit and let Drew Allar make some plays with his arm.
At the end of the day, I don’t think Allar will have to do too much to win this game. Penn State’s defense should keep a lid on the Ole Miss offense and allow Nick Singleton & Kaytron Allen to really control the game. I’ve said Ole Miss is overrated all season long, and this bowl game will prove it.
Penn State: 27, Ole Miss: 17
Iowa vs Tennessee
Citrus Bowl, Monday January 1st
What’s at Stake: Iowa has had as tumultuous of a 10-2 season as maybe any 10+ win team ever, with their offense consistently being the punchline of the Big Ten. No one is giving the Hawkeyes much of a change against the 8-4 Volunteers – a team that I think should have dropped from the rankings weeks ago.
A win would provide a tremendous credibility to the way Kirk Ferentz builds & manages his roster as we enter 2024. A Citrus Bowl win would also make 2023 an unquestioned success for Iowa. With the injuries they endured on both sides of the ball, beating a ranked SEC team in a major bowl game would be a major victory for the program. But a loss, coupled with massive question marks around the coaching staff & personnel on offense, would raise some uneasiness in Iowa City.
Iowa’s Key to Victory: With Tennessee’s struggles to generate big plays all year long, their stout defensive front, and Iowa… well, being Iowa… this game figures to be a defensive battle. This is Brian Ferentz’s last game having the reigns of the Hawkeye offense, and I expect him to go out swinging. That’s not to say I expect Deacon Hill to throw the ball 40 times. But this offense should open up a bit and feature some trick plays.
Iowa’s chances to pull off a massive upset in this game will fall on the shoulders of their quarterback. Hill doesn’t need to be Super Man, but he will need to use his big frame to break some tackles and escape the fierce Tennessee pass rush. He’ll also need to take care of the ball and connect on some play-actions shots to keep the Vol defense on their heels. He wasn’t able to do that against Michigan in the Big Ten title, averaging less than 4 yards per passing attempt.
I don’t think Iowa can win this game by running the ball 50 times and controlling the clock like they did so many times in Big Ten West games. If the Hawkeyes want to win the Citrus Bowl, Deacon Hill will have to step up.
B1G Player to Watch: Staying with the theme of Iowa needing to have some sort of pulse offensively to win, I’m excited to see WR Kaleb Brown in this game. He was a 5-star recruit in the 2022 class and transferred from Ohio State this past off-season. Brown was a big-time addition for a school that isn’t usually very active in the portal, but he didn’t make much of an impact in the first couple months of the season.
Kaleb Brown has come on stronger in the month of November, accounting for 25 of his 27 touches on the season in Iowa’s final 5 games. He’s one of the fastest Hawkeyes on the entire team and is a menace in open space. Kaleb Brown will likely enter 2024 as Iowa’s WR1 and will be a big reason as to whether or not this offense can start to pick it up. It all starts in the Citrus Bowl. I am excited to see how Iowa gets him the ball and what he is able to do against a good Tennessee defense.
Prediction: Iowa’s defense, even without Cooper DeJean, should be able to keep Iowa in this game into the 4th quarter. Jaylen Wright is a terrific RB and Tennessee’s offensive line has kept Joe Milton relatively upright throughout the season. But I don’t think Milton is consistently accurate enough to pick Iowa’s defense apart and move the ball consistently.
That being said, this Volunteer offense is not like most of the offenses Iowa played in the Big Ten West. They’ll have to defend against some great speed like WR Ramel Keyton. Iowa will be able to stay in this game, but I think their defense will start to wear down in the 4th quarter and their offense won’t be able to keep up.
Tennessee: 23, Iowa: 16
Auburn vs Maryland
Music City Bowl, Saturday December 30th
What’s at Stake: Taulia Tagovailoa became the Big Ten’s all-time passing leader in 2023. He is the most prolific quarterback in Maryland football history and will be playing his final game for the Terps in the Music City Bowl. Tagovailoa came back to challenge Ohio State, Michigan, & Penn State and make some noise on the national level. The season didn’t quite go as planned, but going out on a win would mean a tremendous amount to the senior.
A win against Auburn would also give Maryland back-to-back 8+ win seasons for the first time in 20 years. Mike Locksley has given stability to a program that had been a revolving door of coaches since joining the Big Ten. Going up against a 6-6 Auburn team that ranks 125th in total offense and 91st in scoring offense, I would expect a win for the Terps. Even given Locksley’s success, Maryland hasn’t really sniffed the top-25 or a 10+ win season. A loss to Auburn could indicate they are still a ways away from breaking through.
Former Michigan State QB Payton Thorne makes a return against a Big Ten opponent. He was 1-1 against the Terps as a starter.
Maryland’s Key to Victory: When Maryland has struggled this year, they have failed to run the ball effectively and committed too many turnovers & penalties. To be honest, Auburn hasn’t been very good in any facet of the game this season. The Tigers are 2-point favorites over Maryland due to name-recognition alone (and because the first many people saw of them was in a near upset of Alabama). But if there’s a way the Terps can drop this game, it’s by playing sloppy and turning the ball over.
B1G Player to Watch: Cory Dychess – one of the best receiving TEs in the conference – entered the transfer portal earlier this month along with backup Rico Walker. That leaves redshirt freshman Preston Howard as the top option in the Music City Bowl and into 2024.
Howard played QB in high school and stands at 6’6″ 240lbs. He’s put on nearly 30 pounds since arriving on campus and has all the physical tools to be a legitimate threat as a receiver & blocker. He made a couple big plays in the finale against Rutgers and could be a name to watch heading into next season.
Prediction: I expect Taulia Tagovailoa to come out firing in the final act of his college career. It wouldn’t be fitting unless he had a “what are you looking at” throw or two, but Payton Thorne & this Auburn offense doesn’t scare me. The Terps have been fairly stout against the run all year and the Tigers don’t have a wide receiver that can consistently win 1:1 battles (their leading receiver is TE Rivaldo Fairweather with 349 yards).
It might take a while to get separation without a consistent run game, but Tagovailoa and his deep cast of pass-catchers should be too much for Auburn to keep up with.
Maryland: 28, Auburn: 20
Wisconsin vs LSU
ReliaQuest Bowl, Monday January 1st
What’s at Stake: Wisconsin’s preseason Big Ten title hopes were dashed pretty quickly during a rocky first season under Luke Fickell. The Badgers sat at 5-5 with a bowl appearance in question after a dismal loss to Northwestern. They managed to rally late, winning their final two games and finishing at 7-5. A win over LSU could help Wisconsin fans forget about some of the struggles during an up-and-down 2023 and provide momentum into a pivotal second year for Luke Fickell & his staff.
A win would also extend an incredible stretch of post-season success for the Badgers, winning 8 of their past 9 bowl games.
Wisconsin’s Key to Victory: Braelon Allen is likely playing his final game for the Badgers after rushing for 3,494 yards and 49 TDs over the past three seasons. He’ll be facing an LSU rush defense that ranks 92nd in rush defense and 98th in yards per carry allowed.
Wisconsin should utilize a heavy dose of Allen in an attempt to control the clock and keep the ball away from LSU’s electric offense. I expect Jayden Daniels to play, so it is imperative that Braelon Allen can consistently churn out positive yardage so Wisconsin can accomplish just that.
B1G Player to Watch: Veteran wide receivers Skyler Bell & Chimere Dike – both top-four on the team in receptions and yards – hit the portal. Will Pauling, who transferred from Cincinnati last year, was a nice surprise for the Badger passing attack. He’s been Wisconsin’s WR1 all season long, but he’s now going to garner even more attention.
Will Pauling was an unsung 3-star recruit in the 2021 class and caught only 13 passes in his first two seasons with the Bearcats. He was also coming off a season-ending knee injury. But has emerged as one of the Big Ten’s most reliable slot receivers thanks to his quickness and ridiculous speed.
Will Pauling caught 66 passes for nearly 700 yards and 4 TDs in 2023 and should be on track for much bigger things in 2024. I’m excited to see how he handles an increased role against a soft defense on national television.
Prediction: If Jayden Daniels sits this game out, Wisconsin wins. Plain and simple. But I’m operating as if Daniels will play. In that case, the Badger defense will have a tough time accounting for his ability to scramble and extend plays. Though Ricardo Hallman & Hunter Wohler may be able to keep a lid on LSU’s passing attack, I don’t think their front is athletic enough to contain him.
Tanner Mordecai has actually been playing better since returning from injury than he was at the beginning of the season. He’s completed over 64% of his passes in each of the past three games with a 3:1 TD:INT and 145 rush yards. But Mordecai has only been averaging 5.5 yards per attempt. He’ll need to push the ball down field with some level of success in order to keep pace with LSU.
I think all of these bowl games have a chance to be great games, even the ReliaQuest Bowl with Wisconsin as 10.5 underdogs. Phil Longo’s no-huddle could hit a new level with a few weeks to prep. But I’m not sure Braelon Allen & Will Pauling can elevate this offense to the level they need to be at all by themselves.
LSU: 38, Wisconsin: 27
Northwestern vs Utah
Las Vegas Bowl, Saturday December 23rd
What’s at Stake: No one picked Northwestern to win more than three games in 2023, let alone make a bowl game. Now, the Wildcats are a game away from an eight-win season. The future is all of a sudden not so bleak behind the leadership of David Braun. No matter what happens in the Las Vegas Bowl, this season was a massive success for Northwestern.
That being said, decisions weigh heavily on this Northwestern roster. Veterans like LB Xander Mueller, DL Sean McLaughlin & Jaylen Pate, RB Cam Porter, WRs Bryce Kirtz & AJ Henning, and others could all turn pro, transfer elsewhere, or come back to Evanston for 2024. An upset win against the Utes and the return of key leaders on both sides of the ball could set Northwestern up to be a sneaky good team next season.
Northwestern’s Key to Victory: Utah QB Bryson Barnes announced his intentions to transfer out of Utah earlier this month. However, he is sticking around for the bowl game to help finish what this team set out to accomplish. Although this is good news for Utah’s chances of winning their first bowl game since 2017, Barnes didn’t necessarily close out the regular season on a hot streak. In the Utes’ final 4 games, they went 1-3 with Barnes throwing 6 INTs and also getting sacked 6 times.
Utah has been very up-and-down all season long, but they have been consistently tough against the run. I’m not sure Ben Bryant will be capable of shouldering this offensive load and leading Northwestern on long scoring drives. The Wildcat defense will certainly need to help out their offense.
Northwestern ended the season on a three-game win streak. They were outgained in each of those games but had a +6 TO margin. If the Wildcats want to win this game, they will have to continue to force turnovers and set their offense up in plus territory.
B1G Player to Watch: I’m keeping an eye on Northwestern’s offensive line in this matchup. They’ve already lost the leader of this unit to the transfer portal in LT Josh Priebe. It’ll certainly be interesting to see how these tackles hold up against a fierce pass-rush.
I’m also very intrigued about the interior of this offensive line. All three starters along that interior are seniors who could move on from Northwestern after this season. But they also each have an extra year of eligibility remaining. This will be one of the toughest tests of the season for the Wildcat offensive line and will be a great measuring stick for just how much they have to improve for 2024 (whether they return 4 starters or 1 starter).
Prediction: This is one of the toughest games to predict among the Big Ten bowl slate. On the one side, we have a Northwestern team that has drastically out-performed their talent. Their defense has given up a lot of yards on the ground and through the air but continually come up with big, game-changing plays. Northwestern’s offense hasn’t been particularly impressive through the air or on the ground this season (they rank outside the top 100 nationally in scoring, rushing, and total offense) but have come up with big plays when they’ve needed it the most. On the other side, we have a Utah team that stumbled down the stretch after having lofty preseason expectations.
When Utah has struggled offensively this year, it’s been because of an inability to run the ball which has put too much pressure on Bryson Barnes and an iffy aerial attack. I don’t think that’ll be as much of a problem against a Northwestern team that yields 160 rush yards per game at over 4 yards per carry.
The turnover battle will keep this game close, though. The Wildcats do a terrific job of getting turnovers and are facing a Utah offense that has been very sloppy in November. On the flip side, Utah hasn’t been able to force many turnovers this season. Because of that, I think Northwestern will have a chance to win this game late. But I think winning this bowl game means more to Utah than it does a Northwestern squad who has already smashed expectations. I trust the Utes to make the plays they need to late to escape with their first bowl victory in 6 seasons.
Utah: 23, Northwestern: 20
Rutgers vs Miami
Pinstripe Bowl, Thursday December 28th
What’s at Stake: Before the season started, any Rutgers fan in any universe would have signed up for a 6-6 season and a bowl game against Miami. But at one point in the season, the Scarlet Knights were 6-2 and held a lead over Ohio State midway through the 3rd quarter with an opportunity to make it a two-possession game. Gavin Wimsatt overthrew an open receiver which resulted in a 95-yard pick six from Jordan Hancock. From that point on, nothing has really gone their way.
Rutgers lost their final four games by an average margin of 20 points. In a sort of way, the season feels like a letdown given how the season started. That can all be changed with a win over a program like the U.
In a massive rebuild like the one Greg Schiano is leading, you have to capitalize on momentum when you have it. Rutgers is already ahead of schedule on the field and seizing some more momentum with the return of veterans like RB Kyle Monangai, LB Tyreem Powell, and DL Aaron Lewis & Wesley Bailey. A signature win like this could help give the Knights a spark on the recruiting trail to help them maintain some consistent success in the Big Ten.
Rutgers’ Key to Victory: Miami’s defensive front has been impressive all season long, ranking top-15 in the country in sacks, rush defense, and yards per carry allowed. Rutgers’ offense will always revolve around Wimsatt’s & Monangai’s legs as long as they are there, but they are sure to face some struggles in the Pinstripe Bowl.
If Rutgers wants to win this game, Gavin Wimsatt has to step up in the pass game, at least a little bit. He has completed over 50% of his passes in only four games this season and has averaged a measly six yards per passing attempt. The former 4-star recruit showed flashes of a great arm early in the season but failed to improve as the season went on. With a few weeks to get healthy and prepare, Gavin Wimsatt will need to elevate his game in order for Rutgers to beat Miami.
B1G Player to Watch: Although Rutgers is looking to return the bulk of their starters in 2024, the receivers are one position group that is heavily impacted. JaQuae Jackson, Isaiah Washington, and Johnny Langan all graduate, leaving Christian Dremel & Ian Strong as the only returning receivers with more than 5 catches.
Strong is the guy I’m going to keep a careful eye on. Dremel is a proven veteran and reliable option in the slot, but isn’t going to bust the game open with any huge plays. Ian Strong was the #1 safety in the state of NY in 2022 and switched to WR this past off-season. He has great speed to go along with his 6’3″ 210lb frame, making him a game-changing threat. Strong proved early in the season he is capable of making acrobatic catches and could be the source of a big play in the Pinstripe Bowl.
Prediction: The Canes will have to start freshman Tyler Van Dyke at QB, making the passing game a little less threatening. Even so, receivers Xavier Restrepo & Jacolby George are a tall task to contain. Miami has run the ball effectively all year, making them a more challenging offense than most of the ones Rutgers has faced this season.
But Miami will be thin at DE due to a flurry of injuries and transfers. Rutgers could find more success than they have been used to over the past month of the season. Nonetheless, Gavin Wimsatt will have to hit open receivers consistently and be semi-effective in play-action in order to take the pressure off his defense.
The Scarlet Knights defensive front should be able to swarm the freshman QB and contain the run like they have all season long. But if the offense can’t sustain some drives and possess the ball, the defense will inevitably get worn out. That’s essentially a bet on this passing game being able to get going a little bit, and I’m not comfortable doing that.
Kyle Monangai will help keep Rutgers in this game. But when called upon to finally challenge the secondary, Wimsatt makes a mistake that takes this game out of reach. Schiano comes up just short of a winning season in his third year.
Miami: 24, Rutgers: 13
Bowling Green vs Minnesota
Quick Lane Bowl, Tuesday December 26th
What’s at Stake: I’m genuinely curious – do Minnesota fans even care about this game? The Gophers got into the post-season at 5-7 because not enough teams reached 6 wins. Their upset win at Iowa breathed life into a dying season and gave hope that they could contend for the Big Ten West. But the wind quickly went out from those sails. Minnesota lost their final four games and their starting QB Athan Kaliakmanis to the transfer portal.
5th-year senior Cole Kramer will start at QB, but he has only 44 career pass attempts and is unlikely to be a legitimate option as their starter next year. Minnesota already brought in longtime UNH starter Max Brosmer in and intend to bring in other QBs via the portal as well. The Gophers have vows to return for 2024 from virtually eligible starter, namely WR Daniel Jackson, RB Darius Taylor, OTs Quinn Carroll & Aiferontae Ersery, and CB Justin Walley. So there aren’t many young guys to keep an eye on entering this matchup.
Win or lose, this season was a disappointment for Gopher fans. PJ Fleck isn’t on the hot seat yet, but he has to avoid a replica of 2023 in order to keep his job secure. So, what’s at stake for Minnesota in the Quick Lane Bowl against 7-5 Bowling Green? Avoiding embarrassment, I guess.
Minnesota’s Key to Victory: The Gophers need to run the blood out of the ball in order to win this game. There’s no reason to put this game in Cole Kramer’s hands. Their RB room has lost its two best options, but Jordan Nubin has to be reliable at the least.
If Minnesota commits to the run game and doesn’t turn it over, there’s no reason they shouldn’t win this game. They’ll have to win this game the ol’ Big Ten West way. The minute they start getting cute and opening up the offense is the minute Bowling Green can capitalize.
B1G Player to Watch: WR Daniel Jackson returning for next year was huge news for Minnesota. He accounted for 45% of the team’s passing yards and 57% of the team’s passing TDs all by himself. On top of that, their 2nd-6th leading receiver will all be gone in 2024. Surely the Gophers will attempt to pick up some more talent in the transfer portal.
But if there is another returner that I think can make some noise in 2024, it’s Elijah Spencer. The Charlotte transfer had 1,300 yards in his first two seasons before transferring to Minnesota but has failed to see the field much in 2023. Bowl games can always feature unsung players, so maybe he could show some signs of being a reliable WR2 behind Jackson next season.
Prediction: Minnesota is entering as pivotal of an off-season as they have had since joining the Big Ten. But with the program perhaps wavering, the return of so many veterans tells me there is still belief in this locker room & coaching staff. I don’t think motivation will be an issue in this game.
Listen, I won’t pretend to know a lot about the 3rd-place team in the MAC East. But Minnesota should be able to control the line of scrimmage and endure the ugly, low-scoring type game they are used to from the Big Ten West. If Minnesota truly wants to win this game, they should.
Minnesota: 19, Bowling Green: 13