Hello and welcome to Midweek Madness! This is The Floor Slap’s weekly CBB article from our CBB expert, Jordan Beckley… Hi, that’s me. Every Thursday, I will be recapping the week that was, the weekend ahead and doing so in a variety of recurring segments and superlatives. So, follow us (@thefloorslap) and have our site bookmarked to make sure you don’t miss a moment of the Madness all season long!
by Jordan Beckley
The Iso
Time to clear out and go 1 on 1 on this week’s Isolated Team.
This week’s ISO team is the Fightin’ Illini.
Let’s start with this: Illinois is the 2nd best team in the Big Ten. Ok now, I am going to say mean things about Illinois.
But remember this is me evaluating them on a curve. I wouldn’t talk about them the same way as Michigan or Northwestern or even Wisconsin.
Illinois is very good and was supposed to be very good. So, I am going to pick nits after a tough loss in Knoxville and a great win over Florida Atlantic.
I think Illinois has a halfcourt problem.
In the game against Florida Atlantic, the pace was moving so hectically that the Orange were able to get out on break often. When they couldn’t run, Terrence Shannon Jr. and Marcus Domask ISOs were effective enough for them to win.
Meanwhile against the Volunteers, the halfcourt offense halted. The same Domask ISOs that were good for 33 points against the Owls produced a 2-11 (0-5 from 3) performance with 6 points versus Tennessee. Turns out that Domask going one on one with Rick Barnes trained defenders is a bad idea.
If you missed the game you might guess that TSJ had a pretty good game with 22 points. But really he feasted in the seemingly extended garbage time and couldn’t produce anything in halfcourt when the game wasn’t decided.
With those two being ineffective Brad Underwood’s team defaulted to one-pass-then-jack-a-three type of possessions including double clutched Coleman Hawkins’ threes. There was virtually no motion and instead Illinois relied on Quincy Guerrier (who was 2-20 on the season from 3 heading into the game) to shoot eight threes on the game after keeping them in it by hitting his first two in the first half.
Illinois resorted to attempting 20 threes in the first half and 36 on the game. Illinois is shooting the most threes per game of any Big Ten team but are 10th best in the conference at actually making them.
The halfcourt issues shine more when you see that Illinois is near the bottom of the conference in assists per game and that they average more turnovers than assists. Right now, the Illini clean it all up by feasting on offensive rebounds with 12.6 a game. Can they keep that up against the bigger Big Ten forwards?
Illinois is really good. They are probably one of the top 16 or so teams in the country and that is without a great halfcourt offense. What the Tennessee loss showed is that there is a ceiling to Illinois playing this way.
Illinois won’t beat Purdue by outrunning them. They won’t win the Big Ten title playing this way. They might make the Sweet Sixteen, but they won’t beat any great team without being able to score baskets on a set defense.
The improvement for Brad Underwood’s team won’t come with different lineups or huge philosophy changes. It will come by them fine tuning how they create looks.
Luke Goode might be the only certifiably good shooter and he took 2 of the 20 attempts in the first half. Can we run some sets for him? Let’s get him running some curl screens and zoom actions.
The continuity ball screen has been Illinois friend this year, but they just kind of stopped doing it against Tennessee. The Flex Offensive actions that Brad Underwood is known for are barely seen this year.
On the right night, Illinois can beat a Florida Atlantic level team with the sheer velocity of Terrence Shannon Jr. However, the Tennessee and Marquette games show that the Orange will need to be able to do more than that to even hope for a Final Four.
Illinois will be able to sleepwalk thru the Big Ten this year to 12 wins. The Illini have a top 15 defense in the country to lean on. If they are going to compete with Purdue for the Big Ten Championship, watch for improvement in the halfcourt. Creating just 3 more layup looks and manufacturing better three point opportunities can be the difference between Illinois being very good to actually being great.
The Big 3
3 things I noticed in the world of CBB. Could be a big win, a big performance, a trend in the sport, a coach who made a dumb face on camera, really anything I want to talk about.
1. Iowa and Michigan State reaching rock bottom
Ignoring the big clashes for the Big Ten’s top three of Wisconsin, Illinois and Purdue, the story of the past weekend was another low point for Iowa and Michigan State.
Iowa hosted Michigan and Michigan State went to Nebraska on Sunday and it was a case of whoever wins these games gains momentum and whoever loses will have no hope. That sports media absolutism of results actually felt accurate after the performances Iowa and Michigan State had.
Iowa for basically the third straight game rolled over. Iowa got blown out by Purdue in Mackey. Understandable. Iowa was wrecked by the Cyclones of Iowa State in their rivalry game. Closer to predictable than surprising, but still below expectations. Finally, Iowa was down by 15 points to Michigan for the entirety of the second half in Carver-Hawkeye Arena. Unacceptable.
Fran McCaffery got tossed out of the game and that still didn’t motivate this Hawkeye team. Payton Sandfort and Patrick McCaffery have disappeared in those three games. Neither of Josh Dix and Dasonte Bowen have made a leap. The freshmen seem capable but they aren’t ready to be leaders on a winning Big Ten team.
This Iowa team has the talent to be better. Right now they are outside of March Madness and will need to win a minimum of 11 of its 18 remaining conference games to make it.
Speaking of not being a tournament team, the preseason no. 4 team Michigan State is now below .500. The Spartans dropped two straight conference games. One a poor effort in East Lansing to Wisconsin and now a loss to Nebraska. The box score might read favorably to Michigan State, but if you watched the last three minutes of the game you knew they weren’t going to win.
The three players who combined to be MSU’s “center” combined for 6 points in 46 minutes. The big man spot has gotten so bad that Izzo mentioned playing his 5’8″ son at Center.
AJ Hoggard and Jaden Akins haven’t been good enough. Where is Xavier Booker? When will Jaxon Kohler return? Why not try to play Gehrig Normand? Should Tre Holloman be starting?
It’s been one of the three worst starts in Coach Izzo’s three decade long tenure. And it’s come on the back of one of his highest preseason rankings.
Both Iowa and Michigan State fans better hope that this moment is their rock bottom.
2. A Meh Freshmen Class
So, I was curious about this year’s freshmen performers as I couldn’t really name an awesome one in the Big Ten this year. I went and filtered the leading scorers in all the top conferences and saw that at least in scoring the freshmen class is very underwhelming.
In the Big Ten the only Freshman averaging double digit scoring is Cam Christie in Minnesota. John Blackwell is at 9.9 so he’s close but still only two guys in the top 45 in scoring in the conference isn’t exciting.
It’s not just the Big Ten either.
In the ACC, the only freshmen in the top 50 scorers are Carlton Carrington for Pitt and Markus Burton for a bad Notre Dame team.
In the Big 12, we have one of the best scorers in basketball in Ja’Kobe Walter for Baylor, but after him… we have Jizzle James from Cincy and Baylor teammate Yves Missi right at 10 ppg and Iowa State forward Milan Momcilovic at 13 and a half. That’s it. One of the best conferences in the country only has four freshmen in its top 50.
The PAC-12 has some top 10 picks in Cody Williams and Isaiah Collier — plus Myles Rice has been sneaky good for Washington State– but not much after that.
Meanwhile the SEC highlights the ultimate point of this exercise. The conference where it just means more is dominated by Transfers not Freshmen.
Of course the Kentucky freshmen are doing well in Rob Dillingham, DJ Wagner and the big surprise of the year Reed Sheppard are doing great, but the scoring charts are FILLED with transfers.
8 of the top 10 scorers are transfers. Only one of the top ten was at his school for his whole career in Wade Taylor IV at Texas A&M. The other player was Mississippi State freshman Josh Hubbard averaging 16.5 points.
This exercise emphasized what coaches mean by “get old, stay old”, how important the portal is and why there has been a lessened focus on high school recruiting.
3. Power Ranking the Power 6 Basketball Conferences
I’ve seen enough from non-conference play to confidently rank the power 6 conferences so far. Here’s how I see the conferences stacking up:
- Big 12
- Big East
- SEC
- ACC
- Big Ten
- Pac-12
The Big 12 is lapping the country right now with top end talent in Kansas, Houston and Baylor, but also ranked talent in BYU, Oklahoma and Texas and finally also having a depth of tournament level teams in TCU, Iowa State, Kansas State, Cincinnati, and maybe even Texas Tech. Nobody matches the Big 12’s high level competitive nature and depth.
Big East clocks in at 2 and they’re closer to 3 than 1. The Big East has the best top trio in the country with UConn, Marquette and Creighton making up the best title race of any conference. However, the dropoff from the tip-top to just tournament level teams in Butler, Providence and Villanova hurts the conference. There is room for Xavier or St. Johns to figure it out too, but the Big East outside of the Big 3 have been disappointing.
The SEC should probably be higher than the Big East. The depth is impressive with by my count 9 or so tournament teams, but all their best teams Arkansas, Alabama, Kentucky, Tennessee, and Texas A&M have lost a good majority of their premier out of conference games. I think Tennessee should separate themselves from the rest of those teams, and even if they do the Vols are a notch below the Big East’s best.
One of my biggest points of this exercise is that the long-held best basketball conferences in the ACC and Big Ten are undoubtedly clocking in near the bottom. The ACC has 7 or 8 tournament teams but many of those will be 8 seeds or higher. Neither Duke or North Carolina look like a 1 or 2 seed right now. Virginia and Clemson are … fine? Miami might be not good. The ACC isn’t what it used to be.
There has been a narrative that the Big Ten is overrated and it’s hard to argue the March Madness results. This year people will not be overrating the Big Ten. There are 6 maybe 7 tournament teams if one of the teams in Michigan gets it together. Purdue and Illinois can carry water for the conference, but Northwestern and Wisconsin being the only other teams being ranked or close to it shows that this is not a good year for the Big Ten.
If you want to tell me that the PAC-12 should be higher than the Big Ten I wouldn’t protest much. They both likely will have a no.1 seed with Arizona and Purdue, but the PAC-12 drops off hard after them. The conference has 5 or 6 tournament teams, but UCLA and USC haven’t satisfied. Colorado is cool, but it’s a one team race out west.
Good Game Bad Game
Loosely defined as a weekly game where I name one (or more) good game and bad game from a player, coach, ref, mascot, towel boy, jumbotron operator or anybody in CBB.
Good Game: Zach Edey
Zach Edey had a great homecoming performance in Toronto with 35 points, 7 rebounds and 2 assists in a win over a fiery Alabama team.
Not only is it impossible to guard Edey without holding, fouling or triple teaming him, Alabama learned you can do all three and still not stop him. The “he’s just tall” crowd continues to look dumber and dumber. Edey’s footwork, post positioning, touch around the basket, soft hands and movement on the roll are not at a normal skill level for a 7’4″ 300lb man.
Bad Game: Wisconsin’s Defense
Wisconsin ended their hell week with a tough loss at the McKale Center.
The Badgers actually put up a fight for a while as the game was tied 23-23 with around eight minutes left in the first half. Four minutes later, Arizona was up 41-25 and the game had been won.
Wisconsin couldn’t keep up with the Wildcats as Arizona ran them off the floor with 98 total points. The Badger defense had a bad game. They wish Purdue’s defense good luck this Saturday.
Still, Wisconsin winning two of the three in Marquette, at Michigan State and at Arizona is pretty good. It was a bad day but a good week.
Weekend Wagers
I preview the biggest games in the weekend slate and give my moneyline picks. For picks ATS follow us on X.
No. 5 UConn vs No. 10 Gonzaga
- Game is being played in Seattle
- Rematch of the Elite Eight game last year that UConn won 82-54
- Jordan Hawkins hit six threes that game
- UConn controlled the boards and exposed Gonzaga’s defense
- Will all the changes to Gonzaga’s lineup (Ike, Nembhard in, Timme, Strawther, Bolton out) be good enough to compete with UConn?
- Another litmus test for UConn. How does Clingan hang with Graham Ike, Ben Gregg and Anton Watson? Can Cam Spencer emulate Hawkins? How much of a mismatch can Alex Karaban be against bigger power forwards?
- It doesn’t get much better than Tristen Newton vs Ryan Nembhard for point guard battles.
- I see this game being in the 150s-160s and UConn pulling out a victory by more than 7.5.
No. 3 Purdue vs. No. 1 Arizona
- Game is being played in Indianapolis
- I will be in attendance for this one and is actually my first in person CBB game of the season
- It really doesn’t get much better than Matt Painter vs. Tommy Lloyd
- Two coaches that are offensive masterminds and drill in their philosophy into their players
- Arizona will want to play with pace. Purdue has been willing to do that with teams like Marquette and Alabama. It will be huge this time for Purdue to slow down this game and make each possession mean a little more.
- The Wildcats do have guys in Oumar Ballo and Motiejus Krivas to throw at Zach Edey. Do they still double? Or do they focus more on ball pressure, denying the pass and hunting turnovers?
- Arizona big men can run. Will Edey get tired chasing Ballo on the break? Can Trey Kaufman-Renn or Caleb Furst play good enough defense if swithced onto the bigs in transition?
- Lance Jones and Braden Smith will have their hands full with Kylan Boswell and Caleb Love. Who guards who?
- Keshad Johnson could be a major mismatch for Arizona.
- On the opposite side will Lloyd be able to trust anybody but Ballo on Edey? What happens if he gets in early foul trouble? Krivas is really skinny.
- Fletcher Loyer and Braden Smith will need to make midrange shots. I imagine that Arizona will end up surrendering a lot of them.
- I like this game to be right at 160 or so with the winning team being 83 and loser at 77 or so.
- I think Arizona’s pace and firepower are a problem not just for Purdue but for everybody. I like Arizona to win in Indiana’s capitol and cement themselves as the best team in the country.
No. 2 Kansas at Indiana
- This is the return trip for the home and home that started last year
- Kansas won that game handily and in fact were up on the 14th ranked Hoosiers by 22 in the first half.
- This year the Hoosiers don’t have Trayce Jackson-Davis or Jalen Hood-Schifino
- It feels like the Jayhawks are destined to spank IU again this year
- However, I would caution you that Indiana has yet to have their big random out of conference win in Assembly Hall
- The Hoosiers have one big one every year no matter how good/bad their team is.
- Could this be it? They didn’t get to host another premier home game as they didn’t participate in the Gavitt Games or the extinct ACC Big Ten challenge.
- Could Indiana beat Hunter Dickinson one more time? Illinois did.
- Kansas should come out as double digit favorites. I think the Jayhawks are a stay away.
- If IU moneyline is anything above +250 I think it is worth sprinkling some money on it.
No. 6 Baylor vs Michigan State
- Before the season this was set up to be a top 15 matchup in Detroit.
- Now, it could be depressing for the largely Spartan crowd.
- MSU has a top 20 defense and that could slow down Baylor’s number 2 offense somewhat, but the Spartans do not have the offense to keep pace.
- If you haven’t seen Ja’Kobe Walter, Yves Missi and this year’s Baylor team, this is the type of December game you watch and remember come March and put them entirely too far in your bracket.
- I know Arizona only beat MSU by 6. I am comfortable picking Baylor to win by 11.5 or so.
No. 13 Clemson at Memphis
- This is probably a better game than you are picturing
- Memphis should be ranked at this point of the season especially after dogging Texas A&M
- Clemson meanwhile is 9-0 and more of a contender in the ACC than you think
- PJ Hall and Joe Girard vs. Caleb Mills, Jahvon Quinerly and David Jones is at least worth watching on the commercial breaks of other games
- Plus the Culture Clash of these programs could lead to some testy moments
- I like Memphis to win a tight one. I also like the risk of Clemson ML if they are anything above +200.
No. 9 North Carolina vs No. 14 Kentucky
- Part of the CBS Sports Classic in Atlanta
- Both these programs feel ahead of schedule at this point of the season.
- Both fans are probably feeling really good about the young guys and/or their new transfers.
- Nothing like a loss to another Blue Blood to ruin some good vibes
- North Carolina certainly feels like a more complete team, but Kentucky also has a higher ceiling
- This could be a great moment for some of the Kentucky Kids to show off in front of what I’m sure will be a well scouted game
- I don’t really know what Kentucky will do about Armando Bacot, but also the Tar Heels sometimes forget to feed him
- I like whoever the underdog will be as I think this is a pickem.
- No matter what the program that wins will feel too good about their program as I think both of these teams’ rankings are a little misleading right now.
Ohio State vs UCLA
- Part of the CBS Sports Classic in Atlanta
- UCLA is looking for a bounce back after losing to Villanova last week
- Ohio State is looking to bounce back after losing to Penn State last week.
- UCLA is in a transition from the past class of guys to a new class. It hasn’t quite worked for them
- I think Ohio State can matchup really well with UCLA.
- OSU’s defense isn’t very good but UCLA’s offense isn’t either.
- I think this will end up being low scoring closer to 140 than 150. I like the Buckeyes to win something around 74-68.
Award Winning Wings
A rotating selection of made up superlatives and awards. Named fondly after how every restaurant has ‘award winning wings’
Fran McCaffery Freakout Alert
Fran McCaffery is no friend to referees or anger management counselors. In the middle of the second half of Iowa’s home loss to Michigan, he was given his second technical and tossed out of the game.
He was given his first technical foul for debating a rather… um typical offensive foul call?
Receiving two technicals in about six seconds of game time is not ideal. A very young Iowa team needs their head coach on the sideline.
It seems like Fran McCaffery like Iowa fans had had enough.
The Wait What? Upset of the Week
Last weeks Wait What? Upset was Bucknell beating Penn State. This week Penn State is on the giving end of the surprise upset.
Ohio State was up by 18 points with 15 minutes left in the game before slowly losing their lead until they did with 32 seconds left after an Ace Baldwin three.
Leo O’Boyle hit some huge threes, Kanye Clary did Kanye Clary things and the Nittany Lions scored 46 points in the final 15 minutes to come all the way back.
The win ended a 5 game losing skid for Penn State and ended a 7 game win streak for a Buckeyes team that probably would have been ranked had they won.
The “I See You” Award
I’m going to skip player and coach of the week because nobody really played more than one game. If I had to award them it would be Zach Edey and Juwan Howard.
Instead, let’s give an ‘I See You’ Award to Kanye Clary. The sophomore for Penn State has been a stud scoring 19 or more points in 6 games this season. If an injury hadn’t tanked one of his games played he would be averaging 18.33 ppg this season.
Even when Penn State is at their worst they have a long history of great scoring guards. It hasn’t been the A-10 player of the year Ace Baldwin keeping them afloat it has been the Coach Shrewsberry recruited guard from Virginia Beach.
Ethan Morton Three Point Tracker
No update for Ethan Morton tracker this week. Morton didn’t shoot in the Alabama game and was an assist away from recording a 12 trillion.
Did Louisville win a game this week?
No! Louisville lost to DePaul this week. DEPAUL!
The Blue Demons were 1-7 heading into the matchup and were the worst ranked power 5 team in the country. Kenny Payne is now 0-2 against DePaul.
I’m not even going to touch the weird stuff happening with Koron Davis. Louisville Basketball is quite literally a dumpster fire.
No Explanation Power Rankings
I am just the humble mouthpiece for the No Explanation College Basketball Committee, who release their weekly Big Ten Rankings to me. I provide their rankings with… no explanation.
Just a little bit of movement here. Looks like the committee shifted down Ohio State, Iowa and MSU and moved up Nebraska, Northwestern and Michigan. Tough look for Rutgers after beating Seton Hall they actually move down a spot with the Cornhuskers jumping them.
I wish I could give you an explanation Scarlet Knight fans, but unlike Kirk Herbstreit going berserk on the haters, this College Committee does not offer explanations.
Thanks for reading this week’s Midweek Madness and I hope you have a great setup on Saturday for one of the best slates we will see all season!
We will be back next week to break it all down and to ISO on a team who may or may not have a coaching scandal.
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