Some questions have been answered, while others are being discovered. Who is the best team in the SEC? Will Gonzaga make the tournament? Will that coach keep his job? All that and more for our College Basketball questions at the halfway point.
by Jordan Beckley
Some College Basketball questions have already been answered.
Who will win National Player of the Year? Zach Edey, again.
Is this Kenny Payne’s last year at Louisville? Most definitely.
Will high profile transfers Caleb Love and Hunter Dickinson work at their new schools? Yeah, I think so.
But because games have been played we have a whole mess of new questions as teams have surprised us, disappointed us, outperformed, failed or frustrated us.
Some are dumb like, “What’s wrong with (Top ranked team) who lost a road game?” or, “Why does Joe Lunardi hate my conference and only give them (x) bids?”
Other questions are more interesting because we don’t know the answer yet. Here are 7 unanswered questions at the halfway point of the College Basketball season.
1. Who will come out on top of the SEC?
The most wide open regular season title race is happening down south.
I think at this point we can eliminate Missouri and Vanderbilt, but every other team’s fans would argue they are still in it.
The obvious favorites are Tennessee and Kentucky. The Vols were the preseason favorites and have lived up to their billing as a Top 10 team but have not been commanding enough that they can’t be had. See the Mississippi State game. Kentucky meanwhile has been really good sooner than expected. The Wildcats lost a tough overtime game at Texas A&M but have looked every bit the part of an SEC champion.
The Aggies finished 2nd last season and as they are starting to get healthy have to believe they can turn their season back around and compete for it all again. Speaking of turning it all around is a talented Arkansas team who just squeaked past Texas A&M last night.
Last year’s champ Alabama are KenPom darlings despite a whole mess of losses. Still, the Crimson Tide ride an analytically high-powered offense and (for all the mistakes in non-conference play) are still undefeated in SEC games.
Oh and Auburn is the no.4 KenPom team who has won 9 straight games by double digits and could be the obvious best team.
Beyond that Chris Beard and Ole Miss started 13-0, Georgia had won 10 straight before a loss to Tennessee, and South Carolina, Mississippi State and LSU aren’t pushovers.
My guess would be that Alabama, Auburn, Tennessee and Kentucky separate themselves, but this conference could become a bloodbath and that separation might not be by much.
2. Will Gonzaga miss March Madness?
Gonzaga is currently tied with Duke for the 4th longest March Madness streak in the country having gone 24 straight seasons. While it isn’t out of the question that Michigan State won’t miss the tournament snapping their 25 season-long streak, I want to focus on the Zags.
Mark Few has made March Madness every season as the Head Coach in Spokane. He’s won the regular season WCC Championship all but two years and won 19 WCC Conference Tournament Titles. The extended run of success has been remarkable and also taken for granted.
Currently, Gonzaga is 11-5 and is 0-4 against Quad 1 opponents. Losses to Purdue, UConn, San Diego State and Washington are all missed opportunities to punch their ticket. The Zags scheduled several other non-conference games that were supposed to be tough but USC & Syracuse are Quad 2 wins and UCLA is all the way down to a Quad 3 win (more on the Bruins in a bit).
Right now Joe Lunardi’s Bracketology has Gonzaga as the first team out. After losing to Santa Clara and given their vulnerability this year, could this be the year that Gonzaga misses the tournament?
We don’t know for sure but the WCC conference tournament will certainly hold some serious weight this year.
3. Can anyone challenge Duke & UNC in the ACC?
Too often the discourse around the ACC centers around two teams: Duke and North Carolina.
With reigning co-champs UVA scoring at almost a high school level & Miami unable to decide if they are good or bad, it has left two ACC teams still ranked. Duke and North Carolina.
Some people believed in Clemson as a contender, but the Tigers just lost four of their past five ACC games to Virginia Tech, Miami, Georgia Tech and at home to the Tar Heels. NC State has some optimism but has beaten four of the bottom teams in the ACC and also lost at home to North Carolina. Florida State performed poorly in non-conference play but is now 4-1 in ACC with their only loss being at the Dean Dome.
Possibly the best challenger is right there in North Carolina in Wake Forest. The Demon Deacons are 4-2 with wins over Virginia, Miami, and Virginia Tech. Steve Forbes is running out three guards in Hunter Sallis, Kevin Miller and Cameron Hildreth who are each averaging over 16 ppg. However, Wake Forest also just lost a tough game to NC State last night.
Does Wake Forest or anyone really have enough to hang with Duke and UNC? Probably not. If you are pessimistic, then the February 3rd meeting of Duke-UNC in the Dean Dome looms large before they meet again to close the season at Cameron Indoor. It seems once again, the ACC will come down to the best rivalry in College Basketball.
4. Are Juwan Howard & Mick Cronin done coaching at Michigan & UCLA?
UCLA and Michigan have had seasons from hell.
The Bruins are 7-10 with four losses in conference play already and even lost to Cal State Northridge at home. Mick Cronin continues to drop hints in press conferences that he is unhappy and message boards are abuzz with rumors of him returning to the Midwest. Perhaps to coach a team with a red bird mascot. I don’t know. Maybe a Cardinal? (Louisville, the rumor is Louisville).
Michigan is not much better at 7-10 with four losses in the Big Ten and a home loss to Long Beach State. Maybe, Juwan Howard wants to keep his job more as he brought the Fab 5 back together on MLK day to beat rival Ohio State snapping a 5 game skid for the Wolverines.
Two schools with historically great basketball programs have been making headlines for all the wrong reasons this year. Fans are frustrated, Coaches are angry, and Athletic Directors are pressed.
Nothing is final yet and there is still plenty of games to be played, but don’t be surprised if these high pressure scenarios implode by the end of the year.
5. Will the Mountain West have more teams in the dance than a Power 6 conference?
I wrote on Monday about my growing affinity for the Mountain West this season. Well that soft spot for the conference is growing on Bracketologists too.
The Mountain West is projected to have 5 teams (Boise State, San Diego State, Utah State, Colorado State, and Nevada) in the tournament and New Mexico could fight its way in their too after back to back upsets over ranked opponents.
The five bids from the Mountains are tied with how many ACC teams are projected to make it, two more than the PAC-12, and only one less than the Big East.
Respectfully as a Big Ten blogger and Ohio State alum, I would rather see New Mexico or Boise State in the tournament over the Buckeyes right now.
With a miserable Pac-12 failing in its final year, I think it is safe to say that the Mountain West will have more than at least one power conference. Could the Mountain West end up being as high as a top 4 conference?
If you want to be ready for March Madness, you will need a baseline knowledge of the Mountain West this year.
6. Who will survive & be crowned Big 12 Champion?
The Big 12 is the closest thing we can get to Gladiator-esque combat in the modern era.
Houston and BYU learned this as the two top ranked entrants lost two of their first three games in their new conference. Kansas fell victim to the Golden Knights of UCF and almost fell to TCU in Phog Allen. Texas and Oklahoma have each stacked two losses in their final Big 12 season too.
Baylor was one of the few unscathed teams until they lost in overtime at Kansas State’s Octagon of Doom last night. The loss left Texas Tech as the lone team without a mark in the loss column for now, but the Red Raiders have to play Houston and BYU this week.
Right now Lunardi says that 8 teams will make March Madness. However, if this conference really gets bloody I can see 10 teams making it.
Now, who will win it?
The casual viewer will just blindly say Kansas will win it because they always do. They might be right as Bill Self is hard to stop, but this Jayhawk team is flawed. Baylor is anything but perfect and their defense leaves them vulnerable. Houston’s offense (and you know never having to play this many tough conference games) leaves them similarly exposed.
Could things get weird and we see one of Oklahoma, TCU, Iowa State or BYU win the regular season crown? Or is a messy three-way shared title in the cards?
We don’t know yet. That’s why these questions are unanswered.
7. Will UConn stumble enough to lose the Big East Title?
I would say that the start of the Big East has been defined by stumbles.
Creighton stumbled with two early losses to Marquette and Villanova. Marquette is still stumbling with losses to Providence, Butler and Seton Hall. Providence is still catching themselves after Bryce Hopkins’ season ending injury. St John’s has stumbled into back to back losses after opening 3-1 in the Big East.
UConn seems to be the team in the best form after winning 5 straight games after losing their conference opener to Seton Hall. The Huskies are ranked no.1 for the first time since Kemba Walker was playing and are favorites to win the conference at -150.
The Big East is ultra-competitive and a joy night to night, but the biggest question is can enough teams in the conference reach a high enough level to beat UConn enough times for them to not win the Title?
Last year, UConn’s mid-season stumble in Big East play prevented them from winning the Big East in an otherwise exceptional season.
Marquette might have just had their stumble that prevented them from becoming repeat champs.
Seton Hall sits alone at the top at 6-1 having already beaten UConn and FanDuel only gives them 16-1 odds to win the conference.
Could any of the good-not-great middle tier of Villanova, St. Johns or Creighton elevate to compete with the Huskies?
All I will say is it is a great season of College Basketball when the Big East race like this is the 3rd or 4th best Title race. I can’t wait to see how all these Title races shake out and to learn the answers to all these questions.