by Sean Szymczak

Spring practice has wrapped up across the country. The spring transfer poral window is officially closed. Rosters are just about finalized. We are now officially in the dead zone of college football until Big Ten Media Days kick off at the end of July.

It’s a perfect time to take a pulse check on where each Big Ten school stands as we head towards the 2024 season.

Let’s get one thing straight: there is no outright bad team in the Big Ten this season. This conference is the deepest in the country, with all 18 teams eyeing a bowl birth in 2024. Of course, not every team can hit the 6-win mark.

We rank every Big Ten team 1-18 and broke them into 6 tiers based on their outlook and reasonable goals for the upcoming season.

Tier 1: Championship Contenders

The Big Ten’s only chances at hoisting the CFP Trophy for the second straight season. These teams are the class of the conference and maybe of the entire country.

1) Ohio State

The expectations of perfection would be insurmountable for almost every team. But the Buckeyes might be able to live up to the hype in 2024.

It all starts with a defense that is shaping up to be an all-time unit. Jack Sawyer, JT Tuimoloau, and Tyleke Williams all spurned the NFL to form one of the country’s fiercest defensive lines. Former 5-star and starting safety Sonny Styles moves to linebacker to make room for a secondary that is littered with NFL talent.

Lathan Ransom was on pace for an All-Big Ten season last year before an October injury cost him the rest of the season. He returns at safety and is joined by Alabama transfer Caleb Downs. But cornerback is the real position of strength for Ohio State. With Denzel Burke, Davison Igbinosun, Jermaine Matthews, and Jordan Hancock, the Buckeyes might have four lockdown corners to play around with.

The offense is still up in the air with QBs Will Howard and Devin Brown duking it out, likely throughout fall camp and maybe into the season. But their ability to run along with Chip Kelly’s new run scheme and the best backfield in the country should form a dynamic rush attack. That will open up the offense and allow these talented wide receivers to do their work.

Expectations are the root of disappointment, and anything short of a national championship would be a disappointment in Columbus given the expectations of this team. But I don’t see a reason to believe why this Ohio State team can’t achieve them.

2) Oregon

The Ducks should be right up there with Georgia and Ohio State as the preseason favorites to win the national championship. Top to bottom, they boast one of the nation’s most talented rosters.

With 49 career starts under his belt and an embarrassment of riches at his disposal, QB Dillon Gabriel will have no problem assuming Bo Nix’s role as point guard of the offense. Tez Johnson had over 1,000 receiving yards last year and is joined by Texas A&M transfer Elijah Stewart and TE Terrance Ferguson to form an elite receiving trio. The backfield features a trio of its own with Jordan James, Noah Whittington, and Missouri St transfer Jay Harris.

The offense will be anchored by an offensive line that returns four starters from last year and add longtime starter Matthew Bedford from Indiana. Oregon’s offense is sure to be humming in 2024.

Defensively, their secondary rivals Ohio State’s as best in the country thanks to the addition of Jabbar Muhammad (Washington), Kam Alexander (UTSA), and Brandon Johnson (Duke) via the portal. Their front features veterans like LB Jestin Jacobs, DE Jordan Burch, and DT Keyon Ware-Hudson. There truly is great talent at every level of this team.

If there’s a concern for this Oregon squad, it might lay in the trenches. Their offense must prove to not be too dependent on big plays and capable of going on long, sustained drives. Their defensive line has some great talent but also a lot of inexperience and has yet to prove it can hold up throughout the physical Big Ten season. Nonetheless, the Ducks have national title aspiration in 2024 for good reason.

Tier 2: CFP Contenders

With the CFP open to 8 at-large bids, you don’t have to be a flawless football team in order to compete for a championship. These teams should firmly expect to be in the 2024 College Football Playoff.

3) Michigan

Despite a mass exodus of talented upper-classmen, including 13 picks in the 2024 NFL Draft, Michigan has their eyes set on a 4th straight CFP appearance. And they should be able to accomplish that with the same formula they’ve used the past three seasons: suffocating defense and a strong run game.

Derrick Moore, Josaiah Stewart, Mason Graham, and Kenneth Grant form one of the nation’s best defensive lines. Sure-tackling LB Ernest Hausmann is joined by Maryland transfer and former Freshman All-American Jaishawn Barham to bolster that elite defensive front. The secondary boasts college football’s best corner in Will Johnson but could be the weakness of this side of the ball. There is a lot of inexperience and they gave up a lot of separation in the spring game.

Offensively, the top six guy’s from last year’s elite OL are off to the NFL. But thanks to a litany of blowouts and Zak Zinter’s late-season injury, plenty of offensive linemen gained valuable experience last year. The Wolverines also added All-Big Ten G Josh Priebe from Northwestern. This line will be able to pave running lanes for Donovan Edwards, one of the nation’s best and most under-appreciated running backs.

Colston Loveland is the nation’s best tight end and Tyler Morris has emerged as the team’s clear WR1 this spring. Although the receivers behind Morris are a little questionable, Michigan has proved they only need two viable receivers on the field for this offense to be potent.

But all eyes in Ann Arbor are on this QB battle. After the spring game, the race seems to be between Alex Orji, Davis Warren, and Jack Tuttle (who did not play this spring as he recovers from elbow surgery). Orji is one of the most athletic quarterbacks in all of college football, but his accuracy is inconsistent and his decision-making is unproven. Warren looked like the best passer in the spring game, but it was mainly against reserves and scout team defense. One thing is certain: the Wolverines will have to endure a massive drop-off at the QB position.

Despite some question marks and an overall lack of depth compared to last year’s squad, the 2024 Michigan Wolverines boast one of the more talented rosters in college football and are built to make another run at the playoff.

4) Penn State

It seems like Penn State fans have been waiting forever for James Franklin’s squad to get over the hump and compete for a national title. 2024 should finally be the year the Nittany Lions break into the CFP, and it all starts with their defense.

Abdul Carter moved from LB to the BULL position this off-season and forms a truly elite pass-rushing duo alongside Dani Dennis-Sutton. They also return the entirety of their interior defensive line and LB Kobe King to form a defensive front that will be as good as anyone’s this season.

Penn State’s secondary has to replace their top three cornerbacks from last year, but they get some help with the additions of SEC transfers AJ Harris and Jalen Kimber (both former 5-star prospects). Starting safeties Kevin Winston and Jaylen Reed also return to help keep the lid on this defense. Needless to say, Penn State should have a top-10 defense again in 2024.

But whether or not this team can truly get over the hump and compete with the likes of Ohio State, Oregon, and Michigan will come down to this offense. QB Drew Allar returns for his second season as a starter after a disappointing debut last year. Luckily, new offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki from Kansas should make his life much easier.

Kotelnicki specializes in getting the ball out quickly to get his playmakers the ball in space. RBs Kaytron Allen & Nick Singleton and TE Tyler Warren should be the focal points of this offense and act as security blankets for Allar. But the wide receivers need to show some sign of life. They struggled mightily last season, struggled again this spring, and lost their top option in KeAndre Lambert-Smith via the portal. Someone has to step up in that room for this offense to truly take shape.

Penn State’s defense should be good enough to carry this team to 10 wins and a CFP birth. But whether or not the Nittany Lions can actually win a playoff game or two will come down to this offense, which seems to have as many reasons for optimism as reasons for concern.

Tier 3: CFP Hopefuls

Crazy things can happen throughout a college football season. A couple bounces of the football or inches in your favor could be the difference between an 8-4 or 10-2 season. In this new format, 10-2 in the Big Ten should be more than enough to get into the playoff. These teams have their share of question marks but have the upside of a CFP contender.

5) Wisconsin

Finishing 6-7 with a blowout loss to a Jayden Daniels-less LSU team in their bowl game, Wisconsin’s first season under Luke Fickell did not go as planned. But I don’t expect the Badger program to be down much longer.

New QB Tyler Van Dyke from Miami might be unspectacular, but he has 30 career starts under his belt and should be a massive improvement from last year’s QB play. It helps that their top two receivers in Will Pauling and Bryson Green (106 catches, 1,317 yards, 8 TDs combined last year) both return. The Badger offensive line underperformed last year but returns four starters, headlined by potential 2025 1st-round pick Jack Nelson at LT. All indications are pointing to major offensive improvement in 2024.

But Wisconsin’s biggest question mark on offense comes from a position you would not expect: running back. They say goodbye to three-year starter Braelon Allen and will try to replace him with a committee of oft-injured Chez Mellusi, Jackson Acker, Cade Yacamelli, and Oklahoma transfer Tawee Walker.

Defensively, Fickell & DC Mike Tressel like to run a lot of sets with five or even six defensive backs. That plays into their strength in 2024, as the cornerback and safety positions are looking incredibly strong. CB Ricardo Hallman and S Hunter Wohler are two of the very best at their positions in the Big Ten. But there is also incredible depth with guys like Nyzier Fourqurean, Preston Zachman, and Toledo transfer RJ Delancy.

Despite some losses, linebacker is another position of strength for Wisconsin in 2024. They return Darryl Peterson & Jake Chaney (127 tackles, 17 TFLs, 7.5 sacks combined last year) and added a litany of talent via the portal. But I am worried about their defensive line after getting pushed around last season and now needing to replace two of their three starters.

Traditionally, Wisconsin reloads at running back and defensive line as well as any program in college football. So it is definitely strange that those are Wisconsin’s biggest question marks heading into 2024. But I still expect a top-25 caliber season out of the Badgers in Luke Fickell’s second season.

6) USC

Lincoln Riley’s short tenure at USC has been a disappointment so far, and many expect the Trojans to struggle even more in the physical Big Ten. But I think there is plenty of reason for optimism in LA heading into 2024.

It starts on the defensive side of the ball, where USC has had one of the country’s worst defenses over the past few seasons. They’ve shown poor fundamentals, have constantly been out of position, and have been pushed around up front due to lack of size. But all that should start to change under new DC D’Anton Lynn, who just turned UCLA’s defense from one of the nation’s worst to a top-15 unit in a single season.

The secondary looked spectacular in the spring game and might be the strength of the entire team. Jaylin Smith, Bryson Shaw, and Prophet Brown return and bring loads of experience with them. USC also brought in five DBs via the portal – each with starting experience in the power conferences. The linebacker room also stays entirely in tact while adding 1st-team All-Pac 12 Easton Mascarenas-Arnold from Oregon State. The defensive rebuild is underway at USC.

On the flip side, it’s no secret that the Trojans have a lot to replace offensively. The offensive line has to replace three starters and had two promising young prospects transfer out in the spring. USC has added 10 new offensive linemen across the past two seasons (7 of which are still with the program), so reinforcements are coming. But it might take another year for these young players to gain their footing and become impact players on the OL.

The Trojans also have a fascinating QB battle to monitor between Miller Moss and Jayden Maiava. Moss showed out with 6 TDs in their bowl game, while Maiava has 14 starts under his belt from UNLV and adds another dimension to this offense with his mobility. No matter who the quarterback ends up being, they will have tons of talent at the skill positions.

2023 top-100 prospect Quinton Joyner should become USC’s bell-cow running back after averaging 7 ypc as a true freshman last year. They also added Jo’Quavious Marks from Mississippi State to be a change-of-pace, pass-catching back. Marks has over 3,000 total yards and more than 200 receptions in his career. The wide receivers lose a lot of production but retain a lot of talent with the likes of Duce Robinson, Zachariah Branch, Ja’Kobi Lane, and incoming transfer Jaden Richardson.

There is no denying the talent on USC’s roster in 2024. But whether or not the Trojans can sniff the top-25 and think about the CFP will come down to how their younger prospects on the offensive and defensive lines develop. After all, you simply cannot win in the Big Ten if you are not winning in the trenches.

7) Nebraska

Maybe I’ve had a little too much of the Kool-Aid. But expectations for Nebraska in Matt Rhule’s second season are starting to go through the roof, and I’m buying it.

Let’s start on the defensive side of the ball where Rhule & Tony White pulled off one of the greatest single-season turnarounds I can recall. They mastered the 3-3-5 flawlessly, going from 100th nationally in total defense in 2022 to 11th in 2023. The Blackshirts should continue to improve in 2024.

Their defensive front is loaded with Jimari Butler and Nash Hutmacher anchoring the line. They lost their top two linebackers from last year in Luke Reimer and Nick Henrich, but return loads of production and promising young talent at the position with Mikai Gbayor, John Bullock, and Princewill Umanmielen. They also brought in Stefon Thompson from Syracuse who has 181 tackles, 19.5 TFLs, 10 sacks, and 4 FFs in his career.

Nebraska is searching for a lockdown corner to replace Quinton Newsome, but their strength at safety should pick up the slack. Isaac Gifford is a potential All-American after posting 86 tackles, 6.5 TFLs, 8 PDs, and an INT last year. Deshon Singleton and Marques Buford Jr are also fully healthy after battling injuries last season.

But it’s no secret that the key to Nebraska’s success in 2024 is with their offense. They were putrid last year and seemed to give the ball away on every other possession. This year, they return three starters on their offensive line and add longtime starter Micah Mazzcua via the portal. The Huskers also have one of the country’s best kept secret in Thomas Fidone III, who leads a deep TE room. Oregon transfer RB Dante Dowdell joins Emmet Johnson and Gabe Ervin Jr to form a three-headed monster in the backfield.

Of course, it all comes down to their quarterback play. Highly-touted true freshman Dylan Raiola showed out in the spring game and put a lot of my concerns to rest. He had a few overthrows, but he also had three throws that were better than anything a Nebraska quarterback threw last year. Raiola has plenty of room to grow, but he will be an immediate upgrade and a big reason why Nebraska will take a step forward in 2024.

Tier 4: Anything is Possible

These teams should expect a bowl appearance at minimum in 2024. But the middle of the newly expanded Big Ten is as murky as ever and all of these teams have some red flags. I don’t think I’d be surprised if any of these teams went 5-7 or 9-3 this season.

8) Iowa

Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: Iowa is shaping up to have one of college football’s best defenses in 2024, but their offense is littered with question marks. And as silly as it may sound, losing All-American punter Tory Taylor might be as impactful of a loss as any in the Big Ten, given the Hawkeye’s love for punting the football.

Let’s start off with the positive side of the ball. Iowa loses only three starters from a defense that was top-10 nationally in scoring defense, total defense, and yards per play allowed in 2023. They have NFL talent at every single position, highlighted by DE Deontae Craig, LBs Jay Higgins & Nick Jackson (281 tackles combined last year), CB Jermari Harris, and S Sebastian Castro. The emergence of young, blue-chip prospects like DT Aaron Graves and S Xavier Nwankpa gives reason to think Iowa’s defense could be even better in 2024 despite the loss of Cooper DeJean.

Offensively, it isn’t all bad news. They return every offensive lineman that started at some point last year after getting decimated by injury. The Hawkeyes also added Freshman All-American Cade Broud from NDSU to bolster that unit.

Luke Lachey could rival Colston Loveland as the best TE in college football and is backed up by Addison Ostrenga, who filled in nicely for Lachey and Erik All when they were hurt last year. And their exciting RB trio of Leshon Williams, Kaleb Johnson, and Jaziun Peterson returns to solidify their rush attack.

But if Iowa wants to continue their streak of eight straight 8+ win seasons (not counting the shortened COVID season), their passing attack needs a total makeover. And I’m not sure if they have the resources to do so. Cade McNamara returns at QB, but he struggled mightily before tearing his ACL in game 5. Former 5-star WR Kaleb Johnson should be in for a big season after catching all 22 of his passes in the team’s final six games. But the rest of Iowa’s returning receivers totaled just 11 receptions in 2023.

Iowa’s offensive struggles have had more to do with their coaching than their personnel. They brought in a new OC in Tim Lester who utilized a ton of pre-snap motion in the spring scrimmage. That’s a nice change of pace from last year’s monotonous calls of HB dives and counters into the A-gap. But until I see it with my own eyes, I cannot believe in Iowa’s ability to demonstrate some sort of offensive creativity.

Despite a truly elite defense, Iowa’s chances of repeating last year’s 10-win campaign are slim given their offensive ineptitude and the strength of the newly-expanded Big Ten. After all, they were 5-1 in one-possession games last year. Trends like that do not usually continue into the next season.

9) Rutgers

If you don’t count the QB position, I truly believe Rutgers has a top-25 roster in 2024. They return all 11 starters on offense and 9 starters on defense. The problem is that the QB is pretty important in the game of football.

Rutgers was 16th nationally in total defense last year and the only impactful loss they suffered was corner Max Melton. Aaron Lewis and Wesley Bailey might be the most underrated pass-rushing duo in the Big Ten. Deion Jennings and Mohamed Toure both return for their third year as starting linebackers. And corner Robert Longerbeam and safety Flip Dixon highlight a secondary that is littered with talent and experience. Top to bottom, Rutgers is yet another fearsome Big Ten defense that offenses will have to deal with in 2024.

Rutgers also returns all five starters on their offensive line, featuring two 2025 NFL Draft picks in LT Hollin Pierce and RG Curtis Dunlap Jr. They’ll be blocking for Kyle Monangai, who led the Big Ten in rushing last year and was the heartbeat for this Rutgers offense all season long.

The Scarlet Knights’ receiver room is in great position too. They return their top two receivers from last year in Christian Dremel and Isaiah Washington. They also return Chris Long (who played in every game in 2022 but was lost for the season in 2023’s opener) and Naseim Brantley (an FCS All-American who transferred last year but was deemed ineligible by the NCAA). Rutgers also brought in transfer Dymere Miller, who was an FCS All-American for Monmouth with over 2,100 receiving yards the past two seasons. And to top it all off, true freshman Antonio White could carve out a role as a top-300 prospect and early enrollee.

But as mentioned at the top, question marks are swirling around the quarterback position. Minnesota transfer QB Athan Kaliakmanis firmly outplayed returning starter Gavin Wimsatt in the spring game. In fact, he outplayed the more mobile Wimsatt so thoroughly that Kaliakmanis has already been named the 2024 starter and forced Wimsatt into the transfer portal.

Kaliakmanis showed more promise on two throws in the spring game than any Rutgers QB has showed in years. He demonstrated terrific ball placement on a deep pass on his second possession, and again on a TD pass to Naseim Brantley before halftime. But he has a lot more to prove than a couple nice throws during a spring scrimmage. After all, he completed only 53% of his passes for 14 TDs to 9 INTs as a starter last year.

If Athan Kaliakmanis can develop and prove to be a legitimate downfield threat with his arm, Rutgers could soar up this list. But until I see it with my own eyes, the lack of explosiveness from the Scarlet Knight offense will keep them down in the muddied middle tier of the Big Ten despite having an elite defense.

10) Minnesota

Traditionally built on defense, the Gophers struggled mightily on that side of the ball in 2023. They ranked outside the top 50 nationally in scoring defense, total defense, yards per play allowed, and turnovers forced. Now they lose their best defender and long-time leader in safety Tyler Nubin.

But thanks to nine returning starters and a couple of incoming transfers to bolster the secondary, I think Minnesota’s defense will be much closer to what we typically expect out of them. Corner Justin Walley and linebacker Cody Lindenberg are two of the Big Ten’s best at their positions and their defensive line is littered with 4th, 5th, and even 6th-year players.

The biggest reason why Minnesota finished below .500 for the first time since PJ Fleck’s first season with the school in 2017 (excluding the shortened COVID season) was the lack of an offensive pulse. Fortunately, the Gophers return four starters on their offensive line, All-Big Ten receiver Daniel Jackson, and a dynamic backfield duo of Darius Taylor and Jordan Nubin.

But whether or not Minnesota’s offense can awake from last year’s hibernation will come down the QB position. That seems to be a theme throughout the Big Ten. Athan Kaliakmanis is off to Rutgers after struggling for the Gophers in 2023. In comes Max Brosmer to take his place.

Brosmer is entering his 6th season from New Hampshire. Over the past two seasons, he’s accumulated a 17-7 record while throwing for 6,613 yards, 56 TDs, and 14 INTs on 63% completion. Although not flashy, Brosmer has led one of the most prolific passing attacks in the FCS. The jump from D1-AA to the Big Ten cannot be understated. But Max Brosmer’s experience should at least elevate this offense from the lows of 2023.

Minnesota is one of the toughest teams to pinpoint on this list. They have typically had one of the highest floors in the Big Ten under PJ Fleck, but that floor came crashing down last season. I think the Gophers are sure to reach the post-season and go over their preseason win total (set at 4.5 right now). But expecting much more than that might be a setup for disappointment.

11) Michigan State

Even though their “spring game” was just a 2-hour open practice with a 40-minute scrimmage at the end, I loved what I saw from the Spartans this spring. It all starts at QB, which has been a point of disaster the past two seasons. Michigan State looks to have two options at quarterback, each very capable of elevating this offense.

Aidan Chiles was a top-100 prospect in the 2023 class and transferred in from Oregon State this off-season. He is a true dual-threat with a quick release and all the tools you want from an elite college QB. He looked comfortable in the pocket and more than capable of generating the explosive plays that this offense has been starved of. But Tommy Schuster, a 4-year starter from North Dakota entering his 6th season, won’t bow out of this battle easily. He isn’t quite the athlete Chiles is, but Schuster showed off tremendous poise and arm talent this spring. Either way, Spartan fans should be more confident in their QB position than they have been since Connor Cook was here.

It was more than just the QB position that looked promising for Sparty’s offense, though. The offensive line controlled the line of scrimmage and showed off its depth. RB Nate Carter was explosive and looked poised for a big season. And the WR position looks more solidified than last year, highlighted by Montorie Foster, Jaron Glover, and true freshman Nick Marsh (a top-200 prospect in the 2024 class).

The story is a little different on the defensive side of the ball. Their two best linemen, Simeon Barrow Jr and Derrick Harmon, both entered the transfer portal. With the return of DE Kris Bogle and a stacked LB room, Michigan State’s defensive front still looks good on paper. But that doesn’t explain away the struggles I saw from them this spring.

The secondary has been the Achilles heel of the Spartan defense for quite some time now. Even though they bring back four starters and added two-year starter Ed Woods from Arizona, Michigan State had their best safety enter the portal in Jaden Mangham.

For every reason for optimism on the defensive side of the ball, there appears to be a reason for concern. But at the end of the day, I believe in new head coach Arthur Smith and the talent that is in this QB room. And if you want to see a big turn around in one season under a new regime, it all starts with the head coach and quarterback.

Tier 5: Chance at a Bowl

These teams have to replace boatloads of talent and experience from 2023 and aren’t typically the kind of programs to reload every single season. Even so, a 6 or 7 win season doesn’t seem out of reach if they take care of their non-conference opponents.

12) Washington

All you have to do is peruse the 2024 NFL Draft picks to truly understand the magnitude of the talent exodus Washington endured this off-season. But thanks to the transfer portal and new head coach Jedd Fisch from Arizona, the Huskies rebuilt this roster as well as anyone could have hoped.

Will Rogers, who started 43 games at Mississippi State, steps in for Michael Penix Jr. Jonah Coleman, who had 1,154 total yards at nearly 7 yards per carry at Arizona, steps in for Dillon Johnson. And Jeremiah Hunter, who’s racked up nearly 1,700 receiving yards over the past two seasons at Cal, will become the Huskies’ new WR1.

The real concern for Washington’s offense in 2024 comes from their offensive line. They lost their top six linemen from last year’s Joe Moore Award winning group and brought in just one transfer. Looking at their roster, it seems like a certainty that three or maybe even four of their starting offensive linemen will have to be a true freshman or redshirt freshman. I can’t imagine that will be a recipe for success in the defensively-dominant Big Ten.

It’s a similar story on the defensive side of the ball. The Huskies have some studs in the back-seven. LB Alphonzo Tuputala returns after earning 1st-team All-Pac 12 last year. He will team up with All-Mountain West LB Bryun Parham who transferred in from San Jose State. In the secondary, corner Elijah Jackson could be in for a big year after struggling for a lot of 2023 but then putting together a masterful performance against Texas in the CFP.

But the defensive line is a massive question mark after losing all four starters from last year. They have a good number of experienced reserves who will battle a litter of incoming transfers for starting spots (most notably Arizona DE Isaiah Ward and Montana State DT Sebastian Valdez). Washington seems to have plenty of depth along the defensive line, but I am not sure if they have the size and play-making ability to match up with the elite offensive lines in the Big Ten.

Washington has to endure a ton of talent turnover in 2024. They picked up the pieces as well as anyone could have hoped, but having to endure a regime change at the same time makes it hard to believe these Huskies are capable of being a top-25 team this season.

13) Maryland

Maryland has reached three straight bowl games for the first time in nearly 20 years. The Maryland football program seems as stable as ever under Mike Locksley. But with how much production they have to replace on both sides of the football, 2024 seems like the “prove it” year to determine how stable the Terps really are.

For the first time since 2019, someone other than Taulia Tagovailoa will be quarterbacking Maryland. The battle is between longtime backup Billy Edwards and NC State transfer MJ Morris – both are mobile guys who proved this spring they have a ways to go in their passing development.

The good news is Edwards and Morris have a plethora of weapons surrounding them. RB Roman Hemby returns for his third year as the lead back and has All-Big Ten potential. Tai Felton and Kaden Prather are one of the conference’s top wide receiver duos, combining for 90 catches, 1,389 yards, and 11 TDs last year. But the offensive line has been the deficiency for the Terp offense for years now. With four starters gone, 2024 looks to have a similar outlook.

Defensively, Maryland’s back-seven has been picked apart by the NFL Draft and transfer portal. At cornerback, they lost starters Ja’Quan Sheppard and Tarheeb Still to the draft and three backups to the portal. Starting safeties Beau Brade and Dante Trader were also high draft picks. All-Big Ten linebacker Ruben Hyppolite returns, but his partner Jaishawn Barham transferred to Michigan after two years as a starter.

Maryland looks loaded up front, though. They have virtually their entire defensive line returning in 2024, headlined by DE Quashon Fuller and DT Jordan Phillips. With as much turnover as the back-end of this defense is enduring, it will help to have a veteran defensive line.

The holes that need be replaced (particularly at quarterback, the offensive line, and secondary) makes me think Maryland is in for a tough season. But my heart believes in Mike Locksley and his ability to pull 6 or 7 wins out of this squad.

14) Northwestern

Under new head coach David Braun, Northwestern was one of the biggest surprises of the season. They went from being picked almost unanimously to finish last in the Big Ten to finishing 7-6 with a win over Utah in their bowl game. But it may be more difficult to build on or even replicate that success in 2024.

The Wildcats actually return a good portion of their offense. They bring back three starters on the offensive line, tight ends Thomas Gordon & Marshall Lang, wide receivers Bryce Kirtz & AJ Henning, and running back Cam Porter.

But Porter has averaged less than 4 yards per carry in his career. The receivers behind Kirtz & Henning have combined for just six career catches. And the offensive line paved the way for just 2.9 yards per carry in 2023 and lose their leader in guard Josh Priebe.

The QB situation is even more dire with the graduation of Ben Bryant and transfer of Brendan Sullivan. The battle is between 6th-year Ryan Hilinski and redshirt sophomore Jack Lausch. Hilinski is a career 57% passer with a 25:16 TD:INT. Lausch is a dual-threat, but has only 11 career pass attempts. All things considered, it’ hard to envision this offense improving from last year.

If Northwestern is going to get back to a bowl game, it will have to be on the back of their defense. They bring back eight starters from last year, including their entire defensive line. They say farewell to last year’s leading tackler and longtime starter Bryce Gallagher at LB, but return a couple of other studs in Xander Mueller and Kenny Soares Jr.

The Cats do take a big hit in the secondary with the departure of their top corner Garnett Hollis Jr, starting nickleback Rod Heard, and one of their top backups in Jaheem Joseph. Coco Azema and Devin Turner are two of the top safeties in the conference, but they can’t make up for the glaring lack talent at corner.

After last year, the last thing I want to do is count out David Braun – especially with the abundance of experience on both sides of the ball. But their lack of explosiveness on offense and looming question marks at quarterback and cornerback makes me skeptical that Northwestern can make it back to the post-season.

Tier 6: Better Luck in 2025

Hard to envision a scenario in which any of these teams hit the 6-win mark in 2024.

15) Purdue

QB Hudson Card returns for his second season as the starter. His numbers weren’t eye-popping, but I believe he has all the tools to be an effective quarterback for the Boilers. Card also gets the benefit of playing behind an offensive line that returns four starters. Purdue fans shouldn’t lose sleep over their QB situation in 2024, which is a luxury considering the question marks that litter the position for so many Big Ten teams.

But with their top four pass-catchers gone, the cupboard is pretty bare as far as receiving weapons go. Their top two options appear to be Jahmal Edrine, who missed all of 2023 with injury, and Georgia transfer De’Nylon Morrissette, who caught four passes last year.

The Boilermakers have a couple anchors in OLB Kydran Jenkins and S Dillon Thieneman. Jenkins has racked up 31.5 TFLs and 16.5 sacks over the past three seasons. Theieneman was a Freshman All-American with 106 tackles and 6 INTs in 2024.

Despite their performances, Purdue struggled to grasp Walters’ 3-3-5 scheme last year – they finished 104th in scoring defense. They also sustain a significant loss or two at every single position. I expect the defense to take a step forward in year two of the new system, but they are still a year or two away from becoming a game-changing unit.

Purdue’s spot in the bottom tier of the Big Ten probably has more to do with their difficult schedule than my faith in the direction of the problem under Ryan Walters. Their 2024 schedule features non-conference games against Notre Dame and Oregon State plus conference games against five of my top seven teams on these power rankings. That would be a tall task for any team, let alone a squad that must replace as much as Purdue.

The Boiler offense appears to have a severe lack of play-making and the defense doesn’t appear ready to pick up the slack. Expectations should be tempered in Ryan Walters’ second season.

16) UCLA

After an unceremonious ending to the Chip Kelly era, the Bruins usher in a new generation with head coach DeShaun Foster. He has a tall task ahead of him in their first year in the Big Ten.

Dante Moore, Collin Schlee, and Ethan Garbers all saw their share of snaps at quarterback last season. Only Garbers remains, leaving him as the obvious choice to be their full-time starter. Despite being injured, Garbers came off the bench in their bowl game to rally the team against Boise State. He posted a 98.6 QBR and helped outscored Boise State 28-6 in that second half.

Garbers will need to play like that all season long if the Bruins want to get back to a bowl game in 2024. Their offensive line was a disaster last year and now must endure the departure of their two best starters. I like their collection of skill position players in RB TJ Harden, WRs Logan Loya & J Michael Sturdivant, and TE Moliki Motavao. But I’m not sure if any of them have the firepower to overcome the Bruins’ deficit at the line of scrimmage.

On top of having to replace DC D’Anton Lynn (who almost single-handedly turned the defense into one of the nation’s best last year), UCLA also must replace eight defensive starters. To make matters worse, they saw two of their best returning linemen hit the portal in DE Choe Bryant-Strother and DT Jay Toia.

UCLA simply has too many question marks on both sides of the line of scrimmage to make me believe they can contend in the Big Ten in Foster’s first season.

17) Illinois

Thanks to the departure of guys like Sydney Brown and Devon Witherspoon – who proved their value in their rookie seasons – the Illini went from one of the nation’s best defenses in 2022 to one of the worst in 2023. Now they must endure the loss of their entire defensive line – namely All-Big Ten studs Jer’Zhan Newton and Keith Randolph.

Illinois has a talented and deep group of linebackers, highlighted by returning starters Seth Coleman, Gabe Jacas, and Dylan Rosiek (20.5 TFLs and 11 sacks combined last year). But their secondary is still a massive question mark after getting picked apart in the spring game. If the defensive line can’t generate pressure and the secondary can’t contain opposing receivers, I find it hard to believe this defense can take much of a step forward in 2024.

The good news is the Illini offense should be fun to watch. Even though he was going up against a suspect pass defense, I loved what I saw from Luke Altmyer and the pass attack in the spring game. He looked more comfortable than he did at any point last season. Even with Casey Washington and Isaiah Williams off to the NFL, receivers Pat Bryant, Malik Elzy, and Alex Capka-Jones looked more than capable of making plays.

But I’m not sure how much of a run game Altmyer will have to lean on. They finished last year 98th nationally in rushing offense and 101st in yards per carry. They also lost their leading rusher Reggie Love III who is off to Purdue.

I’m not sure if this offense will be balanced enough to put up the kind of points they will need to in order to offset their questionable defense. It’s likely to be another long season in Champaign in 2024.

18) Indiana

I absolutely love the hire of JMU coach Curt Cignetti – if anyone can bring Indiana to national relevance, I think Cignetti is the guy. But his tenure is likely to get off to a slow start in 2024.

Cignetti is a defensive-oriented guy, but he takes over a defense that finished last year 101st in scoring and must replace seven starters. He brought in a litany of transfers at every level of this defense. DE Mikail Kamara (JMU), LB Jalin Walker (JMU), and S Shawn Asbury II (ODU) were all-conference players last year. But I think it will take more than one season for this unit to become a cohesive, quality unit. Especially with the losses of studs like Andre Carter and Aaaron Casey.

Offensively, the Hoosiers made a big upgrade at QB with Kurtis Rourke from Ohio U. Rourke is a 6th-year vet and former MAC Offensive Player of the Year. He has 50 TDs as the starter over the past three seasons and won 10 games in back-to-back seasons.

Kurtis Rourke has one of the deepest wide receiver rooms in all of college football at his disposal. They brought in four receivers via the portal with multiple years of starting experience, headlined by JMU star Elijah Sarratt. They also return Donovan McCulley – an incredible athlete with great ball skills. He caught 48 passes for 644 yards and 6 TDs last year as Indiana’s WR2.

But like Illinois, the run game is a massive question mark. The Hoosiers are down three starters on their offensive line and their top three rushers from last year. Cignetti brought in a lot of transfers to help out at those positions, but it’s a lot of new faces that have to gel quickly.

The direction of the Indiana program feels as stable as it’s been in years. But as far as 2024 is concerned, there are simply too many new faces (especially on both sides of the line of scrimmage) for me to believe Indiana can salvage a winning season.