In July it’s about to be anybody and everybody’s year unless it really isn’t going to be your year. We are here to power rank all EIGHTEEN Big Ten teams’ optimism heading into the 2024-25 Basketball season.
All of a sudden it is July and it has been three months since Purdue lost in the National Championship to UConn.
Three months is a long time without CBB content, but it’s also the perfect palate cleanser for every Big Ten fan to be ridiculously excited for next year’s team.
Sure your favorite team finished 9th last year… but they bring 4 starters back so of course they are going to win the conference this year right? Yeah, you and everyone else’s squad will just share the Big Ten Title.
I am tasked to bottle up that optimism and rank all of the now 18 Big Ten teams based on how potent their optimism is.
A true preseason power-rankings will come later, but for now let’s rank the unbridled joy (or despair) for each team and catch up on the roster movement you may have missed since the final whistle blew.
1. Rutgers
The Scarlet Knights are at the top of our Optimism Power Rankings for 2024-25 because how could they not be?
Before this past season even really got started, Rutgers fans could hardly wait for this coming season after 5-star recruit Dylan Harper committed on November 8th 2023. Harper is a 6’6″ Wing from New Jersey who is the son of Ron Harper and brother of former Scarlet Knight, Ron Harper Jr.
Dylan Harper, the no.3 overall recruit, will be joined by the no. 2 overall recruit and his apparent best friend in Ace Bailey. Bailey is a 6’8″ Wing from McEachern in Georgia where he was High School teammates with rising sophomore Jamichael Davis.
Between Harper and Bailey, Rutgers will basically go into every game they play next year with the best two players on the court playing for them. Coach Steve Pikiell brought in reinforcements around the studs too in Tyson Acuff (6’4″ Grad Transfer, 21.7ppg last year) and Jordan Derkack (6’5″ G, 17ppg, NEC Player of the Year). Both Acuff and Derkack are veteran College players that will elevate the youth of Harper, Bailey and the other three Top-180 recruits coming in.
This Rutgers team will be totally different than the one we are used to seeing. They should be able to really score the ball and might not be nearly as good defensively. Rutgers lost 9 of the players from last year’s team, including stud center Cliff Omoruyi to Alabama, but that is not a reason for Scarlet Knights fans to hop off the hype train with two Top 5 NBA picks in tow.
2. Indiana
For back to back offseasons, the Hoosiers and Coach Mike Woodson are Portal Champions. Hang the banner!
Last year, Woodson grabbed rising sophomore Kel’el Ware from Oregon and stole supposed-to-be 5-Star Duke Freshman Mackenzie Mgbako at the 11th hour. Ware just went 15th in the NBA draft and Mgbako will figure to be a major piece of this year’s team.
This year, Indiana has absolutely OWNED the portal grabbing several of the top targets with Washington State stud and All-PAC 12 performer Myles Rice, Stanford standout freshman Kanaan Carlyle and two-time All-PAC 12 First Teamer and Top rated portal player Oumar Ballo from Arizona.
Ballo, Rice and Carlyle are literally three of the PAC-12’s best and now will buoy next to Mgbako and Malik Reneau to make a team capable of winning the Big Ten next year. Illinois transfer Luke Goode brings mission-critical shooting off the bench and players like 5-star Freshman Guard Bryson Tucker and fan favorite Trey Galloway are just surplus talent.
For all the talent that has come thru Bloomington the past few years, Mike Woodson has gone just 31-29 in Big Ten play. Hoosier fans know this in the back of their mind, but that won’t hamper their optimism yet as their NIL collective crushes another summer.
3. Illinois
The optimism for the Illini is pretty straight forward; Brad Underwood and Recruiting.
It’s safe to say that the Orange have the strangest offseason of any team between the Terrence Shannon Jr. trial, Marcus Domask attempting to get a waiver and failing, whatever Coleman Hawkins was doing all summer, and assistant Coach Chester Frazier going to West Virginia and bringing Amani Hansberry and Sencire Harris with him.
That sort of circus would bring the excitement level down for most programs, but not Illinois. And it’s because Underwood is a madman on the recruiting trail. Illinois lost 10 scholarship players including their best three players in TSJ, Domask and Hawkins while only bringing back Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn and Ty Rodgers, but Coach Underwood is used to reloading. For the third straight year in a row, Illinois will have new players for over half (7+) of their scholarship spots.
Illinois secured 5 portal commits in Arizona starting point guard and local kid Kylan Boswell as well as former 4-Star big and rising sophomore Carey Booth (Notre Dame), Louisville guard Tre White, and a pair of 39%+ shooters in Ben Humrichous (Evansville) & Jake Davis (Mercer).
Underwood brought in some international flavor to the roster as well with 7′ big Tomislav Ivisic (brother of Kentucky/Arkansas big Zvonimir) and 6’6″ G Kasparas Jakucionis who is projected as a 1st round pick in the 2025 draft. Add in Top 30 recruit Morez Johnson (who just won Gold for Team USA at the FIBA U18 Americup) and there is still plenty to be excited about.
Underwood even bagged his highest rated recruit yet with 6-8″ 5-Star Wing Will Riley just a week ago. Riley plans on reclassifying and joining this year’s team too.
Illinois and Purdue have been the best two programs in the Big Ten the past half decade. Thanks in large part to having the two best coaches. Illinois lost a lot but Purdue lost two-time National Player of the Year Zach Edey. Illinois has been winning at nearly the same level with far more roster movement. A normal coach might not be ready for as much changeover, but Illinois should still be jacked up for 2024-25 with Underwood yelling from the bench.
4. Ohio State
Listen, there is a general sense of apathy from the Ohio State consensus about Basketball — and yes they are much more excited about Football this time of year — but it is impossible to ignore the streak Jake Diebler is on.
Since taking over in the wake of Chris Holtmann’s mid-season exit, Diebler has been batting pretty close to a thousand. As interim coach Diebler went 8-3 in what had been a lost season, secured the head coaching job and then carried that momentum into the offseason.
Diebler hit the portal running landing two underutilized five-star bigs and rising Sophomores in Sean Stewart (Duke) and Aaron Bradshaw (Kentucky), a national runner-up and great wing defender in Micah Parrish (SDSU), and bringing 2nd-Team All SEC selection Meechie Johnson back home to Columbus.
Beyond the portal, Diebler kept star point guard Bruce Thornton, a destined-to-make-the-leap guy in Devin Royal and both Top-50 recruit Juni Mobley and Mr. Basketball in Ohio Colin White.
A pessimist might bring up losing a talented Scotty Middleton, the late flip of Felix Okpara to Tennessee after announcing his return to OSU, or Roddy Gayle (arguably their 2nd best player last season) leaving for rival Michigan and say Ohio State shouldn’t be this high. Yet, in the portal era that’s actually a low level of churn for a replacement coach.
Ohio State played with a different urgency under Diebler last year. With him still keeping pace if not getting better at recruiting as the head coach, Buckeye fans should be super excited about what Head Coach Jake Diebler can do.
5. UCLA
Before last season, I wrote about how Mick Cronin was pivoting to a more overseas focused recruiting strategy and well after one season of missing the tournament he basically kicked all those guys out.
Berke Buyuktuncel, Jan Vide and Ilane Fibleuil please exit stage left and make room for Tyler Bilodeau (Oregon State), Kobe Johnson (USC), and Skyy Clark (Louisville).
After struggling to transition from the Tyger Campbell, Johnny Juzang, Jaime Jacquez era to a new younger squad, Cronin now is betting on experience again. Besides Clark (40 career starts), Bilodeau (45 career starts), and Johnson (57 career starts), Cronin also brought in rising Junior William Kyle from South Dakota State, former Top High School recruit Eric Dailey from Oklahoma State, and former Gonzaga guard Dominick Harris bring plenty of upside to the roster.
The end of last season was a lot better than the beginning and there is real reason to be excited for Dylan Andrews and Sebastian Mack this upcoming year. UCLA has one of the best rosters and is many pundits’ early pick to win the conference.
6. Purdue
The back-to-back reigning Champs of the Big Ten were higher on this list before their highest rated recruit, Kanon Catchings, decommitted.
Losing a potential NBA player in Catchings and the previously mentioned loss of Edey are big blows, but perhaps nobody in the conference can trust their coach more than the Boilermakers.
Purdue returns 3 of the 5 starters from their National runner up campaign including the only pick on All Big Ten First Team to still be in the conference this season in Braden Smith. Smith and his running mate Fletcher Loyer were defined by their ‘youth’ and ‘inexperience’ as they racked up 74 career starts as underclassmen. Now, Smith, Loyer, Trey Kaufman-Renn and Caleb Furst are the only upperclassmen on the roster.
However, Purdue and Matt Painter are reloading with a stellar recruiting crop (even without Catchings). The Boilermakers have the 3rd ranked class in the conference with 5 recruits coming in. Daniel Jacobsen is now the highest rated of the bunch after soaring around 100 spots up after his performance at the Team USA U18 team (he also won gold with Morez Johnson) and is (as you might have guessed) another 7-footer. Glenn Robinson’s son, Gicarri Harris, is the next man up and could have a large role as a backup guard behind Loyer or Smith.
Beyond recruits, Painter and Purdue are known for developing talent and Catchings might have left because of the big things expected from Myles Colvin and Camden Heide. Both Colvin and Heide ooze athleticism and have spent a year (or two) refining their team defense and three point shot.
Nobody in the country is better at developing than the Purdue staff. It’s no wonder they are sticking to large recruiting classes and stop gap transfers every once in a while. Purdue might not be Final Four good this year, but Boiler faithful have no reason to be anything but boastful with Paint guiding the ship.
7. Michigan
After all the offseason mess that is the transfer portal and a whole March Madness tournament, it is easy to forget that Michigan just hired Dusty May and that May chose the Blue over the Louisville job.
The Wolverines have been ACTIVE in the portal landing six transfers and three new high school recruits to boot. May brought over his star big man Vlad Goldin from Florida Atlantic, but wasn’t able to sneak Johnell Davis past the pesky Michigan Admissions Department. Goldin will be paired with Yale big Danny Wolf as one of the best frontcourts in a strangely poor Big Ten frontcourt field next season.
May will also hope to tap into the unseen potential of Auburn’s Tre Donaldson and Ohio State’s Roddy Gayle. Rounding out the transfers is North Texas transfer Rubin Jones and Alabama wing Sam Walters will bring shooting to the team. The Wolverines also have Top 60 recruit Justin Pippen (yeah son of that Pippen) and Mr. Basketball in the state of Michigan in Durral Brooks on the way.
Michigan probably will finish lower in the standings than this optimism ranking, but after several unsatisfying seasons with Juwan Howard Wolverine fans are ready for a real College Basketball coach.
8. Iowa
The middle ground of the optimism is hard to decipher, but I imagine most Hawkeye fans should be thrilled for next season.
The Hawkeyes were one of the youngest teams in the conference last season and with Coach Fran McCaffery we should be prepared for the Freshman to make a sizeable jump in development.
The 2023 class was lead by Big Ten Freshman of the Year Owen Freeman who averaged 10.6ppg, 6.6rpg and 1.8 bpg in just 23 minutes a game. With Ben Krikke moving on, Freeman will have free reign on the interior and should be an All-Big Ten candidate.
I still believe big things are coming for Freeman’s high school teammate Brock Harding especially after a full year+ now of being in a College weight room. Don’t forget that Pryce Sandfort and Ladji Dembele both had their moments too last season. If those guys don’t pop and fill bigger roles there’s an opportunity for Top-80 Freshman and legacy kid Cooper Koch. The 6’8″ Wing is the 3rd highest rated recruit of the McCaffery Era and is the son of JR Koch a Big for the Hawkeyes from 1995-99.
But the real boon of the offseason is Payton Sandfort pulling out of the NBA Draft. The All-Big Ten performer is a bucket getter and one of the 5 best returning players in the conference. Sandfort lost his running mate in Tony Perkins (Missouri), but Iowa replaced him with Morehead State guard Drew Thelwell who after 6.2 apg and a 31.2% assist percentage last year should be capable of running the high octane offense.
All of that and I didn’t even mention Seydou Traore, Chris Tadjo, or even a jump for Josh Dix. A Big Ten Title would be a shock from the Hawks but there is still plenty to be excited about with this young group potentially turning a corner.
9. USC
In an offseason that included Kentucky & Louisville hiring a new coach, Dusty May taking the Michigan job, and Arkansas poaching Coach Calipari we might look back three years later at USC seducing Eric Musselman back to California as the best hire.
Musselman has deep ties to California and the West Coast from multiple College and NBA stops. The move to USC as they join the Big Ten makes so much sense for the Muss Bus and I’m not sure the general public or national media is ready for him.
I am way higher on this Trojan team than the rest of the CBB landscape. I love what he did this offseason. Muss grabbed a total of 6 Grad Transfers with plenty of starting experience. The total minutes of experience will help stabilize a team with 13 new members, but also the coach best prepared for an entirely new roster is Musselman who is going on year 3 of doing that exact team building strategy.
Muss has had extreme trials and errors in the portal like maybe no one else. Did he learn from last year’s mistakes? He clearly brought in a type with essentially 10 double digit scorers and all but two of them are 6’6″ or taller. Productive and long. Add in three 4-Star Freshman in Isaiah Elohim, Jalen Shelley and Wesley Yates (redshirted at Washington last year) and there’s a promise/plan of a future too.
Musselman is still one of the best coaches in the country and the Trojans get to start a new era with him instead of continuing on with the stale Andy Enfield tenure. That alone is a reason for anticipation even if my high hopes for this season are misguided.
10. Nebraska
Nebraska is reclamation city this offseason. There is certainly some optimism when you see treasure in other team’s trash. The Huskers have four Big Ten players transferring in that Fred Hoiberg will try and restore the shine they once had.
Connor Essegian was an All-Big Ten Freshman Team selection at Wisconsin. Gavin Griffiths was one of the highest rated recruits for Rutgers ever. Berke Buyuktuncel was supposed to spend one season at UCLA and then play in the NBA. Braxton Meah was All PAC-12 Defense two seasons ago for Washington.
Nebrasketball is fresh off it’s best season in program history. Losing CJ Wilcher, Jamarques Lawrence and the heartbeat of the program in Keisei Tominaga makes them fall down to the back half of the conference, but there is reason to campaign for Hoiberg.
Juwan Gary, Brice Williams and son Sam Hoiberg are all fan favorites too. At least a couple of the six transfers and two freshman will become lovable goofs as well. I have complete faith that this Husker team will put a fun product on the floor while also being firmly mid-to-lower table.
11. Michigan State
There is a true non-zero chance that Michigan State wins the Big Ten Championship next season. Yet if you ask their fans, Izzo has completely lost his way in the Portal Era.
There is a heavy pessimism around the lack of an adequate big man on the roster. Fans believe Izzo has failed to adapt to the new landscape of recruiting. But what if the all time great Head Coach actually develops two Top-15 classes?
You might hear me say it a couple times, but there isn’t really a big man to be scared of in this year’s Big Ten. Vlad Goldin, Trey Kaufman-Renn and Julian Reese aren’t the same level of Zach Edey, Hunter Dickinson or Kofi Cockburn of years past. Carson Cooper, Jaxon Kohler and Longwood transfer Szymon Zapala will be adequate for minutes needed against the remaining brawn of the Big Ten, but don’t be surprised if 5-Star Xavier Booker gets more run as the 5 in “smaller” lineups this year. One big prediction for the conference is that small-ball will be more frequent across the board.
The haters won’t give credit for Michigan State and Izzo landing one of the five biggest transfers in the conference too in Omaha stud Frankie Fidler. The 6’8″ forward will bring a scoring punch on an otherwise talented, but inexperienced wing rotation for the Spartans.
Oh and here is a list of guards that Tom Izzo has to play with: Jeremy Fears Jr, Tre Holloman, Jaden Akins, and 4-star Freshmen Kur Teng and Jase Richardson… You don’t think one or two of them is going to take a big leap this year?
The Spartans are loaded with talent, but if you were gauging expectations based on how the fans talk about this team you would think they’re restarting like Washington. There is a lack of optimism with the fans, but it’s Tom Izzo. MSU might be unproven right now but I expect they will be a tourney team and likely push for a Big Ten Title.
12. Maryland
Maryland will be one of the most interesting teams in the 2024-25 season.
On one hand last year’s colossal failure wasted an all-time Jahmir Young season, burnt down a top rated recruiting class, and muddied the future of Coach Kevin Willard.
On the other hand, Kevin Willard landed the program’s biggest recruit in ten years with 5-Star Center Derik Queen and brought in two All-Conference performers in Ja’Kobi Gillespie and Selton Miguel. Put those guys around two-way stud Julian Reese and you have a competitive Big Ten squad.
Whether they graduate from competitive to being in the Top-5 of the conference again will depend on the shooting and supporting play they didn’t have last season. Will DeShawn Harris-Smith be able to make a three this year or is his shot broken? Can at least three of Rodney Rice, Tafara Gapare, Jordan Geronimo, Braden Pierce and the rest of the roster form a competent bench?
Maryland has one of the best returning players in the conference in Reese, one of the best recruits in Derik Queen, and two of the best transfers in Gillespie & Miguel. That’s a potent formula, but not far from one that didn’t work last year. Kevin Willard has proven his ability to produce All-Conference guards and teach stellar defense, however he hasn’t proven his ability to win Conference Titles. If things don’t go right this year, get ready for some toxic fans to become very loud.
13. Oregon
I’m not too big to admit that I watched zero Oregon games outside of their epic tournament clash with Creighton. It will be interesting to see how the Big Ten handles trying to balance ticket revenue and live TV audience with Tip Times for the four new West Coast additions.
Will Rutgers fans stay up for a 10:30 ET tip against Washington? Will Duck fans go to a happy hour at 4pm PT to watch Oregon play Penn State on a Tuesday? Having three games in a row on a weeknight theoretically is great, but will BTN stagger games and have overlaps (ie 6pm, 7:30pm, & 9pm Tips) or will their post game recap show come on at 1am ET?
That’s a lot of words that needed to be somewhere in this article and fills up the vacancy of thoughts I have on Oregon.
The Ducks are talented and figure to be in the top half of the standings even after the gut check when N’Faly Dante’s extra-year waiver was denied by the NCAA. Oregon could be higher, but I think that the herd of Duck fans are much more excited about the possibility of winning the Big Ten in Football in Year One. For now Football is zapping any teeming Basketball optimism so 13 it is.
14. Wisconsin
Depending on the time of the offseason you could have put Wisconsin last on this list.
Badger faithful lost the faith when a slew of transfers entered the portal this offseason. Star AJ Storr and out of favor players Connor Essegian and Gus Yalden might have been expected to leave, but cornerstone and face of the program Chucky Hepburn was not.
Hepburn started every game of his three seasons in Madison and embodied the Greg Gard Era of Wisconsin. He also was martyred as a symbol of how awful NIL and the Transfer Portal are to the health of the sport. His somewhat traitorous decision left people calling for the head of Gard and citing 7 transfers as if Ross Candelino and Luke Haertle were critical cogs in Wisconsin’s future.
Things have cooled off and believe it or not, Wisconsin (a historically good basketball program in one of the two conferences that matter) landed talented players out of the portal. The same portal that gave Wisconsin it’s best players of last season in Storr and Klesmit may have taken Storr and Hepburn, but now has given Bucky: Xavier Amos, John Tonje and Camren Hunter.
AJ Storr was great. Hepburn was a classic “we love him more than you do” guy. There is a pretty good chance this year’s Wisconsin team is just as good if not better without them. A lineup of Hunter – John Blackwell – Klesmit – Amos – and Steven Crowl is intriguing and might be enough for the Badgers to finish in the Top 4 again.
15. Washington
This is low for a program who has had a decently uplifting offseason.
The Huskies had been in a rut going almost exactly .500 in 4 of the 5 seasons since Mike Hopkins’ only NCAA tournament in 2018-2019 season. Going back to the Lorenzo Romar days, Washington has only made two NCAA Tournaments since 2010. If this list came out before Washington fired Hopkins I would have had UW last on the Optimism Power Rankings.
But it doesn’t and Washington hired one of the hottest coaches in the country in Danny Sprinkle.
If you aren’t familiar with him here is a quick rundown of his accolades. Sprinkle took over his alma mater Montana State 5 years ago and took them to their first NCAA Tournament appearance since his playing days in 1996 in just his third season at the helm.
After winning two Big Sky Tournament Titles and one regular season crown, Sprinkle was hired at Utah State. He won right away there too. Like right away, right away. The Aggies won a super-competitive Mountain West regular season title and Great Osobor won Player of the Year in the conference too. Sprinkle might have even more national notoriety too if Utah State weren’t slated as an no.8 seed and ran into Purdue and Zach Edey in the Round of 32.
Now, Washington has it’s man in Sprinkle and Danny brought his man in Osobor with him (and it cost a pretty penny too). Coach Sprinkle also kept 4-Star G Zoom Diallo and flipped 4-Star Illinois commit Jase Butler. A hefty portal crop of eight players headlined by Osobor will be supported by experienced players like Butler’s DJ Davis and Rice’s Mekhi Mason. WCC All-Freshman Team Tyler Davis offers some excitement too.
Washington has talent and has their coach of the future, this ranking is more of a testament to how tough the Big Ten will be next season.
16. Northwestern
The Wildcats had to appear somewhere!
I’m higher on Northwestern next season than consensus, but there are obvious questions entering next season. With Boo Buie finally completing his eight year degree at Northwestern, we will get to see how much credit of recent program success should belong to Buie or Coach Collins. Think of it as a super low-end version of Belichik vs. Brady.
Collins still has key players in Brooks Barnhizer, Nick Martinelli and Ty Berry recovering from last year’s season ending injury. All MAAC performer Jalen Leach will audition for the Boo Buie role after averaging 16ppg, 4rpg and 3.0apg in a two-headed backcourt for Fairfield. Player retention will be huge for Northwestern as they lead the conference with 9 returning scholarship players.
The lower overall fervor for sports has Northwestern this low along with the memorial to Boo Buie the program’s greatest player. In contrast to the low optimism ranking, I believe the Wildcats are much more likely to be in the top half of the standings by the end of the season than the bottom of them.
17. Minnesota
We have hit the real dregs of this exercise. Honestly, I don’t want to write about Minnesota because I don’t want to keep piling on.
Last year’s surprise bright spot of the Big Ten came with a caveat; they could run it all back. Yes, the Golden Gophers missed tournament and their T-9th place finish in conference isn’t super impressive, however it was so much better than what Minnesota had been doing under Coach Ben Johnson.
It seemed like a breakthrough and with all five starters able to return, Minnesota could legit be a threat in next year’s league… if they stayed together. But they didn’t.
Elijah Hawkins bolted for Texas Tech after just one season with the Gophers. Booming big man Pharrel Payne left the cold Minnesota winters for warmer weather at Texas A&M. Bench players Braeden Carrington (Tulsa) and Josh Ola-Joseph (Cal) left before they could fill bigger roles. Perhaps most brutally, budding Freshman Cam Christie left to be a 2nd round draft pick like his brother Max did.
All in all, Coach Johnson will return three scholarship players: Mike Mitchell, Parker Fox and Dawson Garcia. Such is life for programs in the Portal Era. Sure, the Gophers have players coming in, but right now they just want to wallow in their pain.
18. Penn State
All in all not great vibes in Happy Valley.
Fans are kind of trying to get James Franklin fired. There is a state of existential dread about Drew Allar hanging over this season. So, forgive them if they aren’t super eager for Basketball season.
The Nittany Lions didn’t get a ‘big splash’ transfer or recruit to push themself up the rankings at all. Yet, Coach Mike Rhoades had a solid if unspectacular first season as Head Coach and a handful of his best players are returning.
Penn State projects as a competitive team, but likely not a Tournament team. That sort of team and offseason isn’t enough to escape the dread of the Football program.