by Sean Szymczak

College football is so close you can almost taste it. So it is time to reveal our official predictions for the 2024 Big Ten season.

We predict the final 2024 Big Ten football standings 1-18 as well as their record and how they should shake out on both sides of the ball.

1) Ohio State

Projected Record: 11-1

Vegas Win Total O/U: 10.5

Post-Season Projection: CFP Automatic Qualifier

The plethora of talent & experience in Columbus, OH is unlike anything we’ve seen in the playoff era. It truly is an embarrassing amount of talent and (most importantly in the expanded playoff) depth at every position. In fact, every position group has a projected 1st-rd pick. Except for quarterback, that is. The QB is still the team’s biggest question mark, but I loved what I saw in the spring from Devin Brown & Will Howard. Their abilities to make plays with their legs will fit seamlessly in Chip Kelly’s run-oriented scheme. That run game should be able take a lot off the quarterback’s shoulders with four returning starters on the offensive line and the addition of Alabama C Seth McLaughlin. Having offensive playmakers like Henderson, Judkins, & Egbuka will also help.

For as much talent as the Buckeye offense has, the defense somehow has even more. JT Tuimoloau, Jack Sawyer, & Tyliek Williams make up one of the best defensive lines in college football. Former 5-star prospect and starting safety Sonny Styles shifts to linebacker (the only position group where Ohio State experiences any significant loss). The secondary looks more like an NFL unit than a college one. They have four cornerbacks who would be the top corner on most college teams. Lathan Ransom was the Buckeyes’ best safety last year and is now joined by Caleb Downs. Any question marks around Ohio State’s offense should be erased considering how dominant this defense looks to be.

But road trips to uber-talented Oregon & Penn State squads loom large. I have a hard time seeing the Buckeyes win both, especially with the 12-team playoff where you don’t need to have a flawless resume in order to get in. I think Ohio State finishes the regular season 11-1 and beats Oregon in a rematch for the Big Ten Championship. That bye week will propel the Buckeyes to their 9th national championship.

2) Oregon

Projected Record: 11-1

Vegas Win Total O/U: 10.5

Post-Season Projection: CFP At-Large

If there’s a Big Ten team who can try to argue that they have more talent than Ohio State, it’s Oregon. They replace Bo Nix with Dillon Gabriel, who has 49 career starts to his name. Running backs Jordan James & Jay Harris and receivers Tez Johnson & Evan Stewart are the Big Ten’s only skill players who can hold a candle to Ohio State’s fire power. Oh, and the Ducks might have the nation’s best offensive line with four returning starters and the addition of longtime Indiana starter Matthew Bedford.

Thanks in part to the addition of All-American corner Jabbar Muhammad from Washington, Oregon’s secondary can compete with Ohio State too. They do lose four of their top defensive linemen and a lot of depth at linebacker, but few have been recruiting as well as Dan Lanning.

The only two regular games in which Oregon may not be favored in are their matchups against Ohio State and Michigan. I think they are able to split those games, setting up a rematch with the Buckeyes for the Big Ten Championship.

3) Penn State

Projected Record: 10-2

Vegas Win Total O/U: 9.5

Post-Season Projection: CFP At-Large

For as much as James Franklin has done to rebuild the Penn State football program, many fans in Happy Valley view 2024 as his final chance to get into the playoff and compete for a national championship. He certainly has the defense to accomplish that. All-Big Ten linebacker Abdul Carter moves to defensive line to terrorize quarterbacks opposite potential 1st-round pick Dani Dennis-Sutton. They also return their top four defensive tackles and a linebacker room that is loaded with experience and exciting young talent. They have to replace their top three corners, but I think Cam Miller is a star in the making.

Drew Allar’s first season as a starter certainly didn’t go as expected, but he was far from the offense’s main problem in 2023. That fell on the receivers and former OC Mike Yurcic. New coordinator Andy Kotelnicki is a big upgrade and will be better at getting the ball in the hands of his playmakers (RBs Nick Singleton & Kaytron Allen and TE Tyler Warren). But I am deeply concerned for a wide receiver room who’s only attempt to improve was bringing in Julian Fleming from Ohio State.

Road trips to West Virginia, USC, Wisconsin, and Minnesota to go along with a home matchup against Ohio State does not make for an easy schedule. Despite the addition of Kotelnicki, I don’t Penn State’s offense will improve enough to be able to take down the giants like Ohio State and Oregon. But their defense should be among the five best in college football, which will be enough for a double-digit win season and their first CFP birth.

4) Michigan

Projected Record: 10-2

Vegas Win Total O/U: 8.5

Post-Season Projection: CFP At-Large

All anyone wants to talk about with Michigan is what they lost from last season. Granted, it’s a lot. But Jim Harbaugh did not leave behind a desolate roster. Will Johnson, Makari Paige, Kenneth Grant, & Mason Graham are the core of what will be another stellar defense. The addition of Maryland LB Jaishawn Barham (freshman All-American in 2022) leaves this unit without a hole.

Despite losing their top six guys, I project Michigan’s offensive line to be among the nation’s best once again. Zak Zinter’s late-season injury opened the door for a lot of reserves to see meaningful snaps late in the season. RB Donovan Edwards & TE Colston Loveland are two of the very best at their positions in the country. Although the Wolverines don’t have a ton of star power or depth at wide receiver, Tyler Morris & Semaj Morgan should have no problem taking over the roles of Cornelius Johnson & Roman Wilson. I am, however, very concerned about the QB position. Alex Orji is a phenomenal athlete but has failed to separate himself in this battle. It seems like Jack Tuttle or Davis Warren may be the favorite to start, and they are a far cry from JJ McCarthy.

Michigan has to travel to Columbus, OH at the end of the season, but their three other toughest games (Texas, Oregon, USC) are all at home. This team has too much talent to fall too far off from last year’s elite squad. If they can upset one of Texas, Oregon, or Ohio State (which they are fully capable of), the Wolverines will get back to the playoff.

5) Iowa

Projected Record: 8-4

Vegas Win Total O/U: 8.5

Post-Season Projection: Bowl Team

I see a massive drop-off between the top four teams in the Big Ten and the rest of the conference. But the ever-reliable Hawkeyes are first in line to potentially break through that glass ceiling and crash the CFP. A lot that potential stems from a quiet optimism around this offense. They brought in new OC Phil Lester who showed his love for pre-snap motion in the spring – something that was missing under Brian Ferentz. They return virtually every single starter on offense and may have gotten a QB upgrade in Brendan Sullivan from Northwestern. His mobility gives this offense another dimension that Cade McNamara simply cannot.

As is tradition, any success Iowa has in 2024 will likely be on the back of another elite defense. They lose only three starters and have potential All-Americans at every level. Nick Jackson & Jay Higgins might be the best linebacker duo in the country. The return of Jermari Harris, Sebastian Castro, & Xavier Nwankpa in the secondary help cushion the loss of Cooper DeJean. Iowa has been top-10 nationally in scoring and total defense in each of the past two season – a trend that should continue in 2024.

Iowa State, Wisconsin, & Nebraska all need to travel to Iowa City which is good news. But the Hawkeyes also have to travel to Minnesota, Ohio State, and Michigan State. This Iowa team certainly has the potential to win 9 or 10 games this season. But I can’t help but be skeptical about the offense’s improvement given Kirk Ferentz’s recent track record.

6) Nebraska

Projected Record: 8-4

Vegas Win Total O/U: 7.5

Post-Season Projection: Bowl Team

Considering Nebraska hasn’t made a bowl game since 2016, the Husker hype train is picking up scary speed. A lot of it has to do with new QB Dylan Raiola. The #1 QB in the 2024 class showed out in the spring game, demonstrating advanced pocket pressure and an ability to push the ball downfield. It’s never easy for a true freshman to adapt to the college level, but Raiola should be a big improvement from last year’s dismal QB play. He doesn’t have many proven options to throw the ball to, but at least the run game should be better with an underrated offensive line and the addition of RB Dante Dowdell from Oregon.

Matt Rhule & Tony White made Nebraska’s defense the most improved unit in college football last year and they return seven starters this year. Safety Isaac Gifford is a potential All-American, their linebacker room might be the deepest in the country, and their defensive line only loses two backups. There’s no reason to believe this defense can’t continue to improve in 2024.

Nebraska’s schedule is manageable and gives reason to believe the Huskers could sniff the top-25 this year. They should be 5-0 when Rutgers comes to town right before their bye week. But it gets much tougher in the back half of the season with road trips to Ohio State, USC, Iowa, and Indiana (keep reading to see why that’s no longer an easy win). The Huskers should solve some of their turnover problems and finally finish above .500, but I don’t think Matt Rhule’s major breakthrough will come until 2025.

7) Rutgers

Projected Record: 8-4

Vegas Win Total O/U: 6.5

Post-Season Projection: Bowl Team

Minnesota transfer QB Athan Kaliakmanis replaces Gavin Wimsatt and looked much crisper in the spring than Wimsatt did at any point in his career. He will upgrade a passing attack that was in the bottom ten nationally in passing yards, efficiency, and completion percentage. It helps that Kaliakmanis will be able to lead on a strong run game anchored by Kyle Monangai, who led the Big Ten in rushing last year. With an offensive line that returns four starters and a receiving core that is much deeper and healthier than last year, Rutgers offense could be formidable in 2024.

Even if the Scarlet Knights can’t produce an electric offense, their defense should be even stronger than last year’s unit which finished in the top 35 in the nation in total defense, scoring defense, and yards per play allowed. Their defensive front is led by Aaron Lewis & Wesley Bailey on the line and Mohamed Toure & Tyreem Powell at linebacker. Even though they must replace their top corner in Max Melton, Rutgers secondary has plenty of other potential stars like safety Flip Dixon and corner Robert Longerbeam.

This is far from the same Rutgers team that won just 10 conference games from 2015-2022. The Knights should be able to control the line of scrimmage and lean on a more balanced offensive attack. They also get a huge break by avoiding Ohio State, Oregon, Penn State, and Michigan on their schedule. If Rutgers can knock off Virginia Tech on the road in week three, the Knights could be a top-25 team.

8) USC

Projected Record: 7-5

Vegas Win Total O/U: 7.5

Post-Season Projection: Bowl Team

D’Anton Lynn turned UCLA’s defense around from one of the nation’s worst to a top-15 unit in a single season. He’s now tasked with turning around a USC defense that has been plagued by poor tackling, missed assignments, and an undersized defensive line under Alex Grinch. The idea of a Linoln Riley offense with an elite defense is scary, but I’m afraid this is more than a single-year fix. Bear Alexander is a monster at defensive tackle, but the line is otherwise lacking the size and depth is desperately needs in order to turn the unit around. On the bright side, the back-end of the defense brought in a plethora of transfers and looked much sharper in the spring. The Trojan defense should at least improve to an average unit in 2024.

There is also concern about how effective this offense can be – especially against stronger Big Ten defenses. The QB battle between Miller Moss & Jayden Maiava rages on. Everyone seems eager to crown Miller Moss the next great Lincoln Riley-produced QB after his six-touchdown performance in the Holiday Bowl, but both Moss & Maiava struggled mightily to throw the ball in the spring game. That might’ve had something to do with the overwhelming lack of experience at the offensive skill positions. Despite a litany of four and five-star prospects, there have been very few meaningful snaps taken by those tasked with replacing Marshawn Lloyd, Brendan Rice, and the rest of last year’s playmakers. Throw in the fact that their offensive line has to replace three starters, and there is reason for skepticism around USC in 2024.

USC has to improve a lot along the line of scrimmage which might make for a difficult transition into the Big Ten. Add the fact that they have LSU and Notre Dame in their non-conference schedule, and I have a hard time seeing the Trojans top their 7.5 win total. Even so, Lincoln Riley is too good of an offensive coach and there is too much talent on both sides of the ball for this team to fall to .500 or worse.

9) Minnesota

Projected Record: 7-5

Vegas Win Total O/U: 5.5

Post-Season Projection: Bowl Team

Speaking of the hot seat, PJ Fleck’s seat got a little warm after last year’s 5-7 regular seasons. There wasn’t a whole lot that went right for the Gophers last year, but a boatload of returning players gives reason for optimism in 2024. Starting on defense where they lose only two starters. Both losses are in the secondary, but Minnesota does return their top corner in Justin Walley. They also get back the leader of their defense in former All-Big Ten linebacker Cody Lindenerbg, who was injured after just four games last year. Minnesota also returns virtually everyone on their defensive line.

On offense they replace QB Kaliakmanis with Max Brosmer, who led one of the most prolific aerial attacks in the FCS at Monmouth. I am skeptical about Brosmer’s ability to ramp up to the upgrade in competition, but it helps to be surrounded by so much talent and experience. Darius Taylor racked up almost 900 rush yards in just six games as a true freshman. He could be in for a huge season, but there is also ample depth behind him in the case of injury. WR Daniel Jackson returns for a fifth season after catching 60 passes for 826 yards and 8 TDs last year. Even thought the offensive line struggled mightily last year, they return four starters and should improve in 2024.

Minnesota is easily one of the most underrated teams entering this season. They get most of their tough games at home with North Carolina, Iowa, and USC all needing to travel to Minneapolis in the first half of the season. But the Gophers’ ability to be a real player in the Big Ten will likely come down to a tricky end of their schedule: at Rutgers, vs Penn State, at Wisconsin.

10) Wisconsin

Projected Record: 7-5

Vegas Win Total O/U: 6.5

Post-Season Projection: Bowl Team

Luke Fickell’s first season at Wisconsin fell flat on its face thanks to struggles along the line of scrimmage and inconsistent quarterback play. They went with another one-year rental at QB with Tyler Van Dyke from Miami. He is more mobile than Mordecai and Locke were last year and he has racked up 69 total touchdowns across 30 games over the last three seasons. But he is also inconsistent with his accuracy and failed to take firm grasp of the starting job last year. Will Pauling & Bryson Green are a greatly underrated receiving duo and the offensive line should be much better with LT Jack Nelson spurning the NFL and C Jake Renfro finally back from injury. But RB Braelon Allen is almost impossible to replace. This offense should be more consistent and balanced in 2024, but but I’m not sure by how much.

The Badger defense returns some studs, particularly in the back-end. Ricardo Hallman is the best cornerback in the country that no one is talking about. Safety Hunter Wohler had over 100 tackles last season. And linebackers Darryl Peterson & Jake Chaney combined for 127 tackles, 17 TFLs, and 7.5 sacks last year. The only problem is the defensive line, where they lose their top tackle and return just one player who had more than one sack last year. In their 3-3-5 scheme, the defensive line needs to eat up blocks and fill holes in order for the linebackers and safeties to fly around and make plays. But without any key transfer additions, I think this Wisconsin defensive line will face similar struggles as last year.

There is definitely talent on this Badger squad, but there are too many question marks to think this is the season Luke Fickell will break through and bring Wisconsin back to CFP contention. Not to mention their brutal schedule. The first half features a home game vs Alabama and road trips to Rutgers and USC. And they end the season on a brutal five-game stretch: vs Penn State, at Iowa, vs Oregon, at Nebraska, vs Minnesota. Badger fans should focus on finishing with a winning record before thinking about contending for the playoff.

11) Indiana

Projected Record: 6-6

Vegas Win Total O/U: 5.5

Post-Season Projection: Bowl Team

Indiana has finished with a winning record only three times in the past 30 years, yet I am picking them to make it to a bowl game under first-year head coach Curt Cignetti. Much of the optimism stems from what figures to be a much improved offense. Three-year starter and former MAC OPOTY Kurtis Rourke transfers from Ohio and should be an upgrade at QB. He has one of the most underrated and deepest wide receiver rooms in all of college football led by Donaven McCulley and Elijah Sarratt. The Hoosiers also brought in three graduate transfer RBs and three transfer offensive linemen with a combined 71 career starts. This offense won’t be easy to stop in 2024.

The Hoosier defense also got a makeover and could improve despite losing a lot of talent in the front-seven. James Carpenter & CJ West were both all-conference tackles and help beef up Indiana’s defensive line. Cignetti also brought over JMU’s top two linebackers and top cornerback via the portal. Returning Jamier Johnson & Nic Toomer to bolster the secondary also helps. This defense may not have a ton of game-wreckers, but the unit is far from a liability.

Indiana’s non-conference opponents are FIU, Western Illinois, & Charlotte. They are also fortunate to avoid Oregon and Penn State in Big Ten play. There is a very real possibility that the Hoosiers are already bowl eligible by the time November comes around. Big regime changes with high player turnover can be difficult to manage, so I expect Indiana to drop a game or two that they shouldn’t. But all in all, this looks like a sure-fire bowl team, which would be a massive success for Cignetti’s first season.

12) Michigan State

Projected Record: 6-6

Vegas Win Total O/U: 4.5

Post-Season Projection: Bowl Team

Michigan State’s expectations for 2024 have been set incredibly low, as they have the lowest win total in the Big Ten under new head coach Jonathan Smith. But I don’t see this season as a complete wash for the Spartans. It all starts at quarterback, where few teams can expect better improvement at the position in 2024. Katin Houser & Noah Kim failed to keep this offense’s head above water, so in steps Aidan Chiles from Oregon State. The sophomore and former top-100 prospect met the hype in the spring game, showing off great arm talent and play-making abilities with his legs. He will be able to lean on last year’s leading rusher (Nate Carter) and leading receiver (Montorie Foster) to help get acclimated to his new home. Even though the offensive line returns only one starter, they dominated the spring game and look much deeper than last year.

But the Spartan defense is still a bit of a concern after finishing in the bottom five of the Big Ten in total defense, scoring defense, and turnovers forced in each of the past two seasons. It’s not all bad news, as they return two of their top three linebackers and four of their top five defensive backs. Jonathan Smith was also able to bring in seven transfers to bolster the front-seven. But the defensive line got hit hard with the departures of their top two tackles in the spring. And I think the secondary is a multi-year fix after being one of the worst in the nation over the past three seasons.

The Spartans’ non-conference schedule is manageable with FAU, Prairie View, & Boston College, but they do draw Ohio State, Michigan, & Oregon in Big Ten action. It might be a slow start, but Michigan State has an opportunity to end the season strong and make a late push for the post-season. Their final four games are vs Indiana, at Illinois, vs Purdue, & vs Rutgers.

13) Washington

Projected Record: 5-7

Vegas Win Total O/U: 6.5

Post-Season Projection: Marginal Bowl Team

Washington replacing Kalen DeBoer with Arizona’s Jedd Fisch, along with the university’s financial investment and fanbase’s passion, makes it clear that Washington will continue to be a factor in the CFP era. Just not in 2024. The Huskies did a nice job in the portal at replacing some of their offensive firepower. Penix is replaced by longtime Mississippi State starter Will Rogers. Jonah Coleman, who had almost 1,200 total yards for Arizona last year, replaces Dillon Johnson. And Cal transfer Jeremiah Hunter along with former highly ranked prospects Giles Jackson & Rashid Williams figure to step up at receiver. But their offensive line lost its top six guys and brought in only two transfers with seven combined career starts. They are going to have to rely on the play of a lot of true and/or redshirt freshmen which is a concerning proposition against these Big Ten defenses.

It’s a similar story on the defensive side of the football. They lost eight starters but brought in some key transfers like DE Isaiah Ward & CB Ephesians Prysock who each earned all-conference at Arizona last year. Washington also returns a stud in LB Alphonzo Tuputala. He was 1st-team All-Pac 12 last year and has racked up 140 tackles over the past two seasons. But the lack of size on the defensive line is alarming. With the Huskies likely to struggle along both lines of scrimmage, it’s hard to see a lot going right for them in Fisch’s first season.

Washington has a manageable non-conference schedule with Weber State, Eastern Michigan, & Washington State – all at home. But they draw Oregon, Michigan, & Penn State to go along with road trips to Iowa, Indiana, & Rutgers on a short week. As much as I believe in the direction of this program, I think 2024 will be a tough transition into the Big Ten for the Huskies.

14) Purdue

Projected Record: 5-7

Vegas Win Total O/U: 4.5

Post-Season Projection: Marginal Bowl Team

The Boiler offense should be a little less hot-and-cold with Hudson Card returning for a second season as the starter. The offensive line returns four starters, highlighted by Gus Hartwig who is one of the best centers in the country. Although Purdue loses their most explosive back in Tyrone Tracy, Devin Mockobee and Illinois transfer Reggie Love III are capable of carrying the load. But there are question marks at receiver with last year’s top four pass-catchers gone. Card’s go to guys figure to be TE Max Klare and WRs Jahmal Edrine and CJ Smith. Klare caught 22 passes in the first four games before going down with injury last year. Edrine caught 39 passes for FAU in 2022 and transferred last year but was hurt in camp. Smith transfers from Georgia and was one one of the fastest players in the 2022 class, though he caught just six passes last year.

The Boilermakers had trouble grasping Walters’ unique 3-4 scheme last year. They return seven starters including a couple of budding stars in safety Dillon Thieneman and linebacker Kydran Jenkins. Thieneman earned Freshman All-American honors with 106 tackles and 6 INTs, while Jenkins racked up 15.5 TFLs and 7.5 sacks last year. But they do lose arguably their top defenders from last year in versatile nickleback Cam Allen and All-Big Ten linebacker Nic Scourton. The defensive line also struggled to generate any push last year and failed to bring in a key transfer. I don’t see this defense taking a step back, but it’s also hard to see them improving a ton in 2024.

Purdue’s non-conference schedule features a home matchup against Notre Dame and a road trip to Oregon State. They also draw Ohio State, Oregon, Penn State, & Nebraska and have to travel to their rival Indiana to close the season. Much like Washington, I believe in Ryan Walters and feel positive about the trajectory of this program. I want to buy into Ryan Walters’ second season with the Boilermakers so badly. But when I assess all the new faces on both sides of the ball along with a brutal schedule, it’s really hard to.

15) Maryland

Projected Record: 5-7

Vegas Win Total O/U: 6.5

Post-Season Projection: Marginal Bowl Team

At the surface, Maryland football is as stable as ever after reaching three straight bowl games for the first time in almost 20 years. But can Locksley get this team back to the postseason and keep them competitive in the expanded Big Ten despite losing his three-year starting QB? I am skeptical. Billy Edwards & NC State transfer MJ Morris are battling to be his replacement, though neither have proven to be half the downfield thrower Taulia was. The Terps do have some of the best skill position players in the Big Ten. Roman Hemby has racked up over 2,300 total yards over the past two seasons and receivers Tai Felton & Kaden Prather combined for 1,389 yards and 11 TDs last year. But the offensive line continues to be a massive red flag and the Achilles heel of this offense.

Maryland’s defense loses only four starters, but they were four very consequential ones. Jaishawn Barham battled injury last year but was a Freshman All-American in 2022 and has proven to be a dynamic playmaker. The Terps also lose their top three defensive backs. Safety Dante Trader Jr and linebacker Ruben Hyppolite should both earn All-Big Ten in 2024, but there is very little experience in the back-end behind those two. The defensive line returns a lot of experience, but from a line that was not very productive last year. Maryland also failed to bring in any transfers to bolster the defensive front.

The non-conference schedule is manageable but could also be tricky, with games against UConn, Virginia, & Villanova. They finally escape the shadow of the Big Ten East and avoid Ohio State and Michigan. But the back half of their schedule is absolutely brutal: vs USC, at Minnesota, at Oregon, vs Rutgers, vs Iowa, at Penn State. That could very well be six straight losses, meaning things need to be clicking early on in the season if Maryland wants to get back to a bowl game.

16) Illinois

Projected Record: 4-8

Vegas Win Total O/U: 5.5

Post-Season Projection: Not Bowl Eligible

Bret Bielema’s teams are traditionally built on strength on the line of scrimmage – meaning an effective ground game and stifling defense. They struggled to stop much of anything last year, resulting in a disappointing 5-7 campaign. They lose “The Law Firm” in Johnny Newton & Keith Randolph as well as their top linebacker and cornerback. Seventh-year Dennis Briggs from Florida State was a nice pickup and should take Newton’s role. Illinois also has an incredibly deep linebacker room led by Seth Coleman. But this secondary was a mess last year and got picked apart in the spring game. I don’t think losing your four best players will lead to this defense improving much in 2024.

Illinois also struggled to run the ball last year. They return their whole interior offensive line and their most effective runner from last year in Kaden Feagin, so their run game should improve. Even so, the Illini will likely need to lean more heavily on the pass game given how their defense projects. Luckily, that is shaping up nicely. I think QB Luke Altmyer is massively underrated and did the most he could with a bad offense last year. He looked sharp in the spring game and appears to have a plethora of receiving options. Pat Bryant is the clear top returner, but don’t discount Malik Elzy. He was a 4-star prospect last year and shined in the spring. They also brought in Zakhari Franklin, a former 1,000-yard receiver, via the portal. There’s also TE Cole Rusk who transferred from Murray State and forced the transfer of assumed starter Griffin Moore.

Illinois should be able to put up some points and could be fun to watch, but it’s tough to see this team competing in the new Big Ten. They draw Kansas in the non-conference as well as Penn State, Michigan, Oregon, & Nebraska. The Illini also close their season with back-to-back road trips against Rutgers and Northwestern, making this a difficult schedule to navigate.

17) Northwestern

Projected Record: 4-8

Vegas Win Total O/U: 5.5

Post-Season Projection: Not Bowl Eligible

I’m struggling to figure out how Northwestern is going to put up points this year. Gone are QBs Ben Bryant & Brendan Sullivan. David Braun brought in former SEC QB Mike Wright, but he has completed just 55% of his passes at 6 ypa in his career. He does have over 1,200 rush yards at 5 ypc, so Wright might have to run for his life to carry this offense. Cam Porter returns as the primary back, but he’s a bruiser who averaged less than 4 ypc last year. Bryce Kirtz & AJ Henning are an effective receiving duo, but they will likely need to rely on true freshmen behind them. The offensive line returns three starters but they struggled for the majority of the season. The unit also loses its leader in Josh Priebe, who transferred to Michigan.

The Wildcats were particularly soft against the run last year – a recipe that does not bode well in the Big Ten. Now they lose their leader in LB Bryce Gallagher along with their top two corners. Northwestern’s defense does have some good talent like DE Aidan Hubbard, LB Xander Mueller, & S Devin Turner. The sure tackles and assignments you’d expect from a Pat Fitzgerald team transitioned over seamlessly with David Braun. This is by no means a bad defense, but they need to be dominant if they want to overcome the offensive woes I expect.

Northwestern’s schedule is no picnic either. They start with Miami OH (the defending MAC champion) and Duke (who beat them by 24 last year). The Wildcats have to travel to Washington then close with Wisconsin, Iowa, Ohio State, & Michigan in four of their last six games. Northwestern was also 5-2 in one-possession games last year – a trend that usually does not continue year-over-year.

18) UCLA

Projected Record: 4-8

Vegas Win Total O/U: 5.5

Post-Season Projection: Not Bowl Eligible

The biggest headline UCLA made since joining the Big Ten was DeShaun Foster’s cringeworthy intro at Big Ten Media Days. That’s not a great sign for a team that stumbled down the stretch of 2024 and now has to replace Chip Kelly. Many of the question marks begin on defense, where they must replace eight starters as well as defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn. The Bruins lose their entire defensive line and their top linebacker, bringing into question how well they will be able to stop the run and rush the passer. They did bring in five transfers on the line, but only one has D1 starting experience. Kain Medrano & Femi Oladejo are a formidable duo at linebacker after combining for 110 tackles last year. Notre Dame transfer KJ Wallace helps bolster a pretty strong collection of cornerbacks. But the holes along the defensive line and at safety are big enough to make me believe this will be one of the Big Ten’s weaker defenses.

The offense will be led by Ethan Garbers, who enters his fifth season and has played in parts of 29 games over the past three seasons. He has an explosive running back by his side in TJ Harden and some good pass-catchers in Logan Loya, J Michael Sturdivant, & Moliki Motavao. The offensive line also returns four starters and brought in a couple transfers with starting experience at Notre Dame and UNLV, providing optimism for the offense in 2024. But that offensive line was among the worst in college football last year and I’m not sure how much we can expect them to improve against these advanced Big Ten fronts. I don’t hate this offense, but I don’t see the star-power necessary to overcome a weak defense and questionable offensive line.

UCLA is fortunate to avoid Ohio State & Michigan in conference play. But their non-conference slate features Hawaii, LSU, & Fresno State – none of those games will be easy for the Bruins. They also host Oregon, Minnesota, & Iowa and have road trips to Penn State, Rutgers, & Nebraska. Without a single “gimme” win on their entire schedule, it will not be easy for DeShaun Foster’s squad to get their footing in his first season. I expect a rough first season in the Big Ten for UCLA.