by Sean Szymczak
The release of the Preseason AP Poll is an annual reminder of how convoluted the rankings system is in college football. The AP Poll has no direct impact on whether or not a team will make the CFP, but helps guide the narrative of the college football season.
Preseason polls are everything that is wrong with a sport that is driven by opinions and style points rather than on-field results. Teams are deemed worthy or not by a poll that releases before any games are even played.
One of the biggest issues with preseason polls is I’m not sure anyone knows what the poll is supposed to be.
"No one knows what the hell they are ranking in August"
Are we ranking teams based purely on talent – how good we think each team is entering 2024? Are we ranking teams based on where we think they will finish the season? Because those are two entirely different conversations.
I don’t necessarily think Ole Miss is one of the 10 best teams in college football. Yes, they return some electricity on the offensive side of the ball, but the Rebels haven’t finished better than 40th in scoring defense or 70th in total defense over the past three seasons. They brought in a lot of transfers to makeover that side of the ball, but continuity is sure to be a problem. Nonetheless, I have Ole Miss as a top-10 team because of an easy schedule. They should be able to sleep walk to a 6-0 start and should be favored in all but one game.
Same goes with Liberty. I don’t necessarily think they have one of the 20 most talented rosters in college football. But an easy schedule will allow Liberty to be favored in every game. I have them pegged for a 13-0 season.
On the other hand, I think Oklahoma has a great roster this season. They return four starters on the offensive line and brought in four transfers. They also picked up WR Deion Burks & RB Sam Franklin via the portal. LB Danny Stutsman & CB Billy Bowman should have this defense finally playing like you’d expect out of a Venables unit. But their conference schedule consists of Tennessee, Texas, Ole Miss, Missouri, Alabama, and LSU. Their non-conference also features tricky matchups against Houston and Tulane. That’s why I have Oklahoma borderline unranked – their schedule is BRUTAL.
There is also a conversation to be had as far as who deserves a higher ranking. Ohio State is my preseason pick to win the national title. I think they are the most talented team top-to-bottom in the country. But my post-week 1 rankings will likely still have Georgia #1. Given what the Bulldogs have been able to accomplish over the past three seasons, Ohio State has to prove on the field that they are a better and more complete team than Georgia before I can move them up in my rankings. That’s the benefit that losing two games in three seasons gives you.
My point is no one knows what the hell they are ranking in August before the season even starts. That’s part of what makes preseason polls so fun. It’s addicting to tear apart other people’s rankings and explain why you think a team will be better or worse than they do. No one is wrong in the preseason!
"The toxicity seeps in when these preseason biases and opinions are carried into the season. When we ignore on-field results."
The toxicity seeps in when these preseason biases and opinions are carried into the season. When we ignore on-field results. If Alabama gets upset by Wisconsin in September, the majority of AP Poll voters will keep them in the top 10 because of their “talent” or “potential.” The preseason expectations held for Alabama will influence how voters view them in the middle of the season.
I have no problem with preseason polls. They are fun. I have a problem when these preseason polls are set as the baseline to judge every team by.
Ole Miss could start 6-0 with their best win being Kentucky at home. That’s not an impressive resume by any means. But because voters viewed Ole Miss as a top-10 team heading into the season, the Rebels don’t have to do anything other than post wins in order to secure their spot at the top of the polls each week.
Purdue, meanwhile, could start 6-0 with wins over Notre Dame, Nebraska, & Wisconsin – a far more impressive resume than Ole Miss. But because Purdue is starting the season off as unranked, they have no shot at surpassing Ole Miss in the polls as long as they have the same record. Purdue would have earned a top-10 ranking on the field, but preseason expectations & biases would cloud voters’ judgements and keep Ole Miss ranked above Purdue.
I am not arguing that Purdue will hold a candle to Ole Miss this season. My point is that these preseason polls make voters decide how the season should go. They consistently ignore on-field results in favor of the narratives they set in the preseason.
You might be arguing that the AP Poll means nothing. Who cares if the Associated Press releases a garbage top 25 every week that is not a good representation of the top teams in college football? Well, we all should care.
The court of public opinion exists in college football just as it exists in real life. The vast majority of college football fans are uneducated – they don’t watch every game or have any real insight into more than a small handful of teams. The vast majority of college football fans form their opinions on teams through the AP Poll. If the AP Poll is telling us Ole Miss is a top-10 team, everyone will believe it and accept it as fact no matter what’s actually happening on the field.
What if Ole Miss gives up 500 yards and only beats Georgia Southern by a field goal in week 3? Nothing will change. The voters deemed Ole Miss a top-10 team in the preseason and will stick with that mindset as long as they have a ‘0’ in the loss column.
Preseason polls suck because the teams starting at the top don’t have to do anything to prove their place, while teams starting lower or unranked need to go to hell and back in order to get recognition.
Preseason polls would be great if we could erase our memory of those preseason expectations and start fresh in week 1, voting based only on what we saw on the field in week 1. But it’s human nature to hold onto our biases.
Preseason polls are only a part of a larger problem which is the college football voting system. The solution would be to move away from the poll system entirely, but that’s an argument for another day.
"The teams starting at the top don't have to do anything to prove their place, while teams starting lower or unranked need to go to hell and back in order to get recognition"
That was a fun rant. Now that we’ve covered why preseason polls are the worst, why not dive into our very own preseason poll?
It’s worth noting that this preseason poll is based on where I think teams will finish in 2024. Think of it as a projection of the final rankings once the season is officially over. So don’t be surprised when our week 1 rankings don’t exactly line up with what you see here. Although I certainly have expectations for different teams and how good they will be by the end of the season, my in-season rankings will be based solely off the games played to that date.
Without further adieu, I present:
The Floor Slap’s 2024 Preseason Top 25
(rather, end-of-season rankings projections)
- Ohio State
- My 2024 national champion pick
- Georgia
- 42-2 over the past three seasons speaks for itself
- Oregon
- Elite talent at every position group, but hard to see this offense being better than last year.
- Texas
- Inexperience is a concern, but I think Ewers is the best QB in the country.
- Notre Dame
- The defense is one of the nation’s 5 best and I like Riley Leonard for this offense more than Sam Hartman.
- Alabama
- Nick Saban left plenty of talent behind and DeBoer brought plenty of his own too. Milroe is a game-changing talent.
- Penn State
- They have a top-5 defense, an improved OC with Andy Kotelnicki, & a schedule that avoids Michigan & Oregon.
- Ole Miss
- Ole Miss should have an easy 6-0 start, enabling them to gel and play their best football when it really matters: against LSU, Oklahoma, & Georgia.
- Michigan
- Michigan is stacked at every position but still has question marks at QB, where they will need big plays from if they want to knock off Texas, Oregon, or Ohio State.
- Miami
- The ACC is a jumbled mess but Miami, with a much improved QB and line of scrimmage play, is my pick to emerge from the conference.
- Oklahoma State
- The Big 12 is also wide open, but Oklahoma State is one of the most experienced teams in the country.
- Missouri
- Missouri’s season will boil down to games against A&M, Alabama, & Oklahoma.
- Utah
- Cam Rising is back. Again. This team with competent QB play will be a threat to make the CFP as a Big 12 champ, or as an at-large team.
- Florida State
- FSU, Clemson, & VT all have as good of a chance to run the table in the ACC as they do to end up with 2 or 3 losses. Hard to separate.
- Clemson
- Love their defense, but hard to believe in Cade Klubnik. Especially with the departures of his top skill position players.
- Tennessee
- Star QB Nico Iamaleava looked the part in their bowl game and throughout the off-season. They have to travel to NC State in the non-conference, but their SEC schedule is manageable.
- Liberty
- They return star QB Kaidon Salter and their entire backfield from a team that led the nation in rushing. Their road trip to App State might be their only real challenge all season. 13-0 is likely.
- Virginia Tech
- QB Kydron Drones might be the best QB in the ACC and the Hokies avoid Florida State, Louisville, NC State, & SMU.
- LSU
- QB Garrett Nussmeier looked great in the bowl. They replenished their WRs with CJ Daniels & Zavion Thomas. Former Missouri DC Blake Baker should help turn that side of the ball around.
- Iowa
- Their defense will be one of the nation’s best and their offense returns virtually everyone. It’ll come down to new OC Phil Parker & QB Brendan Sullivan to make this offense competent.
- Louisville
- Jeff Brohm brought in a top-5 transfer class and has this program here to stay. All-American DE Ashton Gillotte & ex-Tennessee DE Tyler Baron might be the best pass-rushing duo in the ACC.
- NC State
- NC State finished the regular season 5-0 with wins over Clemson, Miami, North Carolina, & Virginia Tech. With new QB Grayson McCall, their offense should be more balanced.
- Kansas
- If Jalon Daniels stays healthy, Kansas is capable of winning the Big 12 with their top rusher, top three receivers, and three starters on the offensive line all back.
- Oklahoma
- LB Danny Stutsman and CB Billy Bowman have this defense finally playing like a Venables unit. But their conference schedule features Tennessee, Texas, Ole Miss, Missouri, Alabama, and LSU.
- Boise State
- Ashton Jeanty is a dark-horse Heisman candidate and their schedule has plenty of opportunities to impress voters.
Just Missed Out: Nebraska, Kansas State, Arizona, Texas A&M, Rutgers
Ranked Teams by Conference:
SEC: 8
ACC: 6
Big Ten: 5
Big 12: 3
Other: 3 (Notre Dame, Liberty, Boise State)
Projected CFP Seeding:
- Ohio State
- Georgia
- Miami FL
- Oklahoma State
- Oregon
- Texas
- Notre Dame
- Alabama
- Penn State
- Ole Miss
- Michigan
- Liberty
CFP Matchups
1st round:
- Penn State @ Alabama
- Ole Miss @ Notre Dame
- Michigan @ Texas
- Liberty @ Oregon
Quarterfinals:
- #1 Ohio State vs Alabama
- #2 Georgia vs Notre Dame
- #3 Miami FL vs Texas
- #4 Oklahoma State vs Oregon
Semi-Finals:
- Ohio State vs Oregon
- Georgia vs Texas
National Championship:
- Ohio State vs Georgia
National Champion:
- Ohio State