After a disastrous previous season, Cronin & UCLA have an opportunity for a fresh start in the Big Ten.
by Jordan Beckley
To celebrate the four former PAC-12 programs joining the new Big Ten, we are writing features for UCLA, USC, Oregon & Washington. Read about Danny Sprinkle & Washington here or Eric Musselman & USC here, but finish our UCLA feature first.
This is my second straight offseason writing about UCLA & Mick Cronin.
Last year, I wrote about Mick Cronin’s new approach to team building by going abroad. UCLA signed big name international prospects in Jan Vide, Berke Buyuktuncel, Ilane Fibleuil, and Aday Mara. One year later and Mara is the only one left in Westwood.
All of them were thought of highly and some potentially as one-and-done NBA prospects. However, the potential didn’t translate to production in America. Vide & Fibleuil couldn’t get on the floor each earning less than 180 minutes across the 33 games played. Vide transferred out to Loyola Marymount and Fibleuil went back home to France to play in the B league of their pro system. Buyuktuncel was the highest rated as a prospect and he struggled to do anything (shoot, rebound, defend, pass) well. He is now one of several reclamation projects for Fred Hoiberg at Nebraska.
It was a big swing for Cronin as he departed from the successful stretch he had with longtime leaders Jaime Jacquez, Tyger Campbell, and Johnny Juzang. Cronin had gone to two Sweet Sixteens, won a PAC-12 Championship, and made a Final Four with that core.
Last season depended on the development of young players and the success of the international players. Well, young players like Dylan Andrews, Sebastian Mack and Adem Bona developed but the overseas players didn’t.
The going abroad strategy may have stemmed from issues with not enough NIL to land coveted domestic recruits or at least Mick Cronin lamented the Bruins investment when they got out to a 6-10 start last season. The whining worked as now Cronin and the fanbase have boosted their NIL and pivoted to landing significant transfer portal additions.
Both Cronin and the powerful people (both in the administration and the ones funding it) know that they can no longer stand pat or be patient with developmental years. Cronin knows that the school with the most National Titles all time expects results and he can’t repeat the mistakes of coach’s past.
A Familiar Fault
After a bad year that saw UCLA finish under .500 at 16-17 (and still somehow finishing 5th in the PAC-12) for the first time since 2015-16, Cronin knows that he doesn’t have time to wait. There isn’t a long runway or an abundance of leniency at the UCLA job.
Last season was a far cry from the Final Four team of 2020-21 or the PAC-12 champion and no.2 seed from the 2022-23 season. In fact, it was a complete anomaly for Cronin, who missed the NCAA tournament after making the past 12 between UCLA & Cincinnati. That extended streak was longer than Matt Painter’s, John Calipari’s or even the streak that Coach K retired with.
The failure to continue momentum is something Bruin fans are familiar with. It seems that every Coach after the great John Wooden came in with a hot hand and then tapered off.
Take Ben Howland for example who in his third season as the UCLA head coach made the 2006 National Championship game. Then he made the Final Four again the next two seasons with players like Jordan Farmar, Darren Collison, Aaron Afflalo, Kevin Love and Russell Westbrook.
Altogether he won three straight PAC-10 Championships, won a staggering 97 games and went 13-3 in March Madness. If it wasn’t for those All-time Billy Donovan Florida Gators teams with Al Horford & Joakim Noah, Howland probably wins a National Title for the Bruins in that stretch. But he didn’t and his success would peter out as he would miss the tournament twice and fail to make the Sweet Sixteen in their other three appearances in his final 5 years as Head Coach.
Before Howland, Steve Lavin ran into a similar result. In his first year at the helm Lavin went 24-8 winning the PAC-12 behind NIL Godfather Chuck O’Bannon and lost in the Elite Eight to no.1 seed Minnesota Golden Gophers and Bobby Jackson. After the hot start, Lavin failed to progress and plateuaed as a perennial Sweet Sixteen exit the next five seasons before a 10-19 record in 2002-03 pushed him out.
More recently Steve Alford won his only PAC-12 title (regular season or tournament) in his first season in addition to making the Sweet Sixteen. However he couldn’t push past and improve upon the initial energy as the new hire failing to make it past the Sweet Sixteen in five and a half seasons even with the loaded 2016-17 team that had Lonzo Ball and four other future NBA players.
It’s a recurring tale of a new coach bringing a renewed energy to the program before ultimately faltering and failing to reach the ultimate success of bringing another banner to Los Angeles or even to continue their original success.
You don’t need to inform Cronin about the history of UCLA basketball. He also is well aware of the impatience of a major program’s supporters who have just rallied the NIL for him and what awaits him if he fails.
This season will absolutely be about winning and moving in the right direction or their might not be more seasons of the Mick Cronin Era.
Bruins are All In (on the portal)
With the urgency of this season defined (and the capital raised) for the Bruins, Cronin was aggressive this offseason.
UCLA brought in 8 new scholarship players with 6 of them being established productive College players via the portal and just 2 High School recruits. It’s a recruiting strategy that is increasing in popularity in programs who can afford to employ it.
Why lose games developing a four or five person freshmen class if most of them just transfer out? Handpicking one or two players that have clear paths or defined traits and grabbing 4+ mid-major gems or proven Power-5 players on underperforming programs will yield better results, right? Getting old and staying old is easy that way.
After landing just one portal commit (Lazar Stefanovic) in the previous summer, that raised NIL is doing the talking with six transfers including four Power 5 players.
Skyy Clark’s talent is easily observable even if he is poor at picking the right team for him. The former Illinois player was the leading scorer for a terrible Louisville team last season. Will he finally find his role on a good team in his third stop in three years out of High School?
Tyler Bilodeau jumped ship from a sinking Oregon State program to join UCLA on it’s way out of the PAC-12. The 6’9″ forward does it all but scoring 14.3ppg at a 20.3 Player Efficiency Rating is someone everybody wants.
Kobe Johnson is another inter-PAC-12 transfer as he moved across town from USC to the Bruins. The senior is one of the best defenders in the country finishing 2nd in steals in the PAC-12 the past two seasons for the Trojans.
The reigning Summit League DPOY, William Kyle III, will also elevate the Bruins’ defense. The springy 6’9″ big had nearly 60 blocks last year for the South Dakota State Jackrabbits while also putting up 13ppg on an ultra efficient 24.9 PER. Was he feasting on the lower level athletes in the Summit? Will his game translate to the Big Ten? We will see.
Kyle will often share the floor with Oklahoma State transfer Eric Dailey Jr. The former Top-50 recruit was stuck on a bad OK State team but still posted 9.3ppg and 4.8rpg with a 55% 2pt FG in just 22.3 mpg. He can hit enough open threes (33%) and passes well enough (15% assist rate) that he could share the floor with another big like Kyle, Bilodeau or Aday Mara.
The final transfer is still waiting for clearance in Loyola Marymount guard Dominick Harris. Harris started his career at Gonzaga before transferring to LMU last year and averaging 14.3 ppg. Cronin needs the NCAA to confirm his eligibility as a two-time transfer as Harris’ best skill is his deadeye shooting (44.8 3PT% on 6.0 attempts) as UCLA tries to flip the script of last year’s team who finished 329th (out of 362) in made three pointers.
All six transfers have a recruiting pedigree, proven College production or both. Two 4-star recruits in Trent Perry and Eric Freeny are the only Freshmen and will have an uphill battle for PT with the transfer class in front of them.
After losing all the transfer battles of previous seasons, Mick Cronin won them all this time. With all the money down, expectations will be raised. Will UCLA be able to reach them?
Show Me the Money
Tensions are silently bubbling in Westwood.
Is UCLA’s history of Head Coaches cooling off repeating itself? Was the NIL funding really to blame for last season? With the boosters doubling down with financial commitment, what will that money earn them?
The good news for Mick Cronin is that he gets to enter the 2024-25 CBB season in a Big Ten Conference without a clear favorite. Purdue is missing it’s signature giant in the middle and isn’t a lock to repeat. Illinois should be good once again, but is very unproven. Ohio State and Michigan just hired new coaches. No one seems to believe in Michigan State after being burned last year.
Indiana & UCLA are in a similar boat after a financially extravagant summer. Both teams feature an influx of transfer talent inflating expectations because of course every player is a perfect fit when you’re a historic program with proud fans! Not quite.
The Hoosiers would be my tentative favorite for the Conference Title race right now. Another former PAC-12 player in Oumar Ballo has all the potential of transferring his All-PAC 12 1st Team status to become a 1st Team All-Big Ten in what I believe is a down year for the conference’s centers. If two of the trio of Kanaan Carlyle, Bryson Tucker and Myles Rice really hit alongside Trey Galloway, Mackenzie Mgbako and Malik Reneau, IU might be more than just a Big Ten contender.
But the sportsbooks disagree with me… Fanduel has Indiana tied with Purdue, Rutgers, Illinois, Michigan & Ohio State all at 55-1 for the National Championship (as that is the only line available this early). Clearly, they don’t know what to do with this conference either. However, one team stands above the six other upper crust Big Ten teams… UCLA at 50-1.
The Bruins aren’t going to put up Banner no. 12 next season. But winning the Big Ten and making the second weekend of the NCAA tournament after missing it the year prior could validate the single-season-rebuild via the portal strategy and reassure boosters their money was well spent.
Another outcome is a middle of the conference finish, a double digit seed in March Madness with an early exit. That result wasn’t good enough to save Steve Lavin’s job, Ben Howland’s job or Steve Alford’s job.
Last year’s international experiment failed. Cronin leveraged that failure for more funding to land a top-tier transfer class. Mick Cronin knows what’s at stake this season and he can’t wait any longer to win.