by Sean Szymczak
Most Likely to Fall Short of Expectations: USC
USC’s expectations seemed to be tempered coming out of a disappointing 2023 season, but USC once again finds itself in the preseason top 25 and at the top of many “darkhorse CFP contender” lists. If USC’s definition of success in 2024 is to be in the thick of the CFP race at the end of the regular season, Trojan fans are being set up for massive disappointment.
I love the hire of DC D’Anton Lynn, but he’s undertaking a massive rebuild at USC. He had the secondary looking much improved in the spring, but the Trojan defensive front is still woefully undersized. No scheme can fix that in a single season, especially in the Big Ten. USC’s offense will surely be great again. Will it be great enough to carry this team to 9 or 10 wins while having a defense that likely won’t be in the top half of the conference? I’m skeptical.
That brings me to my biggest concern: the schedule. The Trojans play LSU, Michigan, and Minnesota away from home in their first five games. Given how much inexperience they have on the offensive side of the ball, it’s hard to imagine USC winning more than one of those games. They still have matchups against Penn State, Rutgers, Nebraska, and Notre Dame in the back half of their schedule.
I think an 8-4 season would be a realistic and successful season for USC given how much they have to replace. Unfortunately, that won’t live up to the expectations being set on their shoulders.
Most Likely to Shock the World: Purdue
Purdue was picked to finish last in the Big Ten by the media. By my estimation, Purdue is nowhere close to the worst team in the conference. They have one of the best offensive lines in the Big Ten and a very talented & underrated QB in Hudson Card who is entering his second season as the starter. Both their offense and defense were feast or famine all season long. That should improve in 2024 as they enter year two under this coaching regime.
Purdue lost four games by one possession last year. They brought in one of the best transfer classes in the conference, highlighted by a couple former Bulldogs & track stars to bolster their wide receiver room. Ryan Walters’ 3-4 hybrid scheme is great at generating big plays and forcing the offense into mistakes. With potential All-Big Ten talents Dillon Thieneman, Kydran Jenkins, & Yanni Karlaftis leading the back-end, this defense should be more consistent in 2024. Everything points to this team trending up, not down.
The only reason I picked Purdue to finish 5-7 is because of a brutal schedule. But that also means there are plenty of opportunities for the Boilermakers to pull off upsets and make a name for themselves. They host Notre Dame, Oregon State, and Nebraska in the first month of the season. They also host Oregon (the week after the Ducks host Ohio State) and Penn State (the week after their white-out game).
We all know the rich history of highly ranked teams traveling to West Lafayette as heavy favorites. If any Big Ten team is built to truly shock the college football world in 2024, it’s Purdue.
Biggest Flirt: Nebraska
Nebraska feels a lot like that girl who has been stringing you along since middle school. Now you are graduating high school and she swears things will be different in college. How many times over the past decade has Nebraska been deemed “back”? How many times have they been picked to finally get back to a bowl game? And how many times has Nebraska let their fans down? Right. And yet, everyone is buying into it yet again.
I can’t say I blame them. Dylan Raiola is as exciting of a true freshman QB the Big Ten has seen in quite some time. Their defense was the most improved in college football last year and has all the pieces to be an elite unit again in 2024. Matt Rhule rebuilt Baylor and Temple in no time – surely he’s about to do the same at Nebraska. But until we see it come to fruition, Nebraska can’t be considered anything other than a flirt.
It’s also worth mentioning that Matt Rhule’s big breakouts at Baylor and Temple came in year three. While a winning record should absolutely be expected in Lincoln, NE, the ‘CFP contender’ talk really needs to quiet down.
Unranked Team Most Likely to Finish the Season Ranked: Rutgers
Rutgers is no longer the bottom-feeder in the Big Ten. Greg Schiano has an exorbitant amount of returning experience and the Scarlet Knights are eyeing a double-digit win season. That might seem like lofty praise for a program that hasn’t even appeared in the AP Poll since 2012, but Rutgers is for real.
Their defense departed only three starters from last year’s strong unit, one of which was offset by the arrival of Florida State DT Malcolm Ray. Their offense also only departed three starters, but the transfer of QB Gavin Wimsat was probably for the best. Minnesota transfer Athan Kaliakmanis looked poised, decisive, and accurate in the spring when he was reunited with his former OC. Kyle Monangai might be the most underrated running back in the entire country. And their wide receiver room is replenished with the availability of former FCS All-Americans Dymere Miller & Naseim Brantley. Everything is pointing upwards for Rutgers.
Their schedule is more than manageable too. They have to travel to Virginia Tech in the non-conference, but they avoid Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan, Oregon, and Iowa in conference. That’s a breathe of fresh air for a program who has been beaten down by the Big Ten east over the past decade. I expect Rutgers to be favored in nine games this season. Don’t be shocked if Rutgers crashes the Top 25 in 2024.
Transfer Most Likely to Shine in their New Home (Offense): Will Howard
The notion that Will Howard transferred because we was going to lose his starting job to a true freshman is a gross over-simplification of the situation at Kansas State. Their best receiving options tend to be coming out of the backfield which put an enormous amount of pressure on the quarterback to generate big plays. Avery Johnson was the ‘shiny new toy’ and a more explosive athlete, so naturally Kansas State was going to lean in that direction in 2024.
The reality is Will Howard is also a great athlete with a big arm. For the first time in his career, he will be able to play within an offensive system and distribute the ball to guys with NFL talent. His running ability will flourish in Chip Kelly’s offense alongside the best backfield duo in the country. And with another stockpile of elite Buckeye wide receivers at his disposal, Will Howard won’t have to be Super Man to have a breakout season.
Transfer Most Likely to Shine in their New Home (Defense): Jaishawn Barham
Maryland LB Jaishawn Barham was an incredibly underrated pickup for a Wolverine team that loses their top two linebackers from last year. Ernest Hausmann fits in seamlessly as a starter their 4-2-5 scheme, but they were missing a play-maker opposite him at middle linebacker. Enter Barham.
He’s a monster at 6’3″ 250lbs and earned Freshman All-America for the Terps in 2022. He battled some injuries last year, but Barham has proven to be a difference maker when on the field. He can rush the passer, set the edge in run support, and make tackles in space. He will be able to play within the defense rather than be asked to make plays sideline to sideline like at Maryland. Jaishawn Barham is an athletic freak and looks the part of Michigan’s next star linebacker.
Most Likely to Make a Case for the #1 Pick in the 2025 NFL Draft: Aireontae Ersery
Quarterbacks, edge rushers, and offensive tackles are most often the selections for the #1 overall pick. There don’t seem to be any 2025 1st-round quarterbacks in the Big Ten this year. There is some great talent and depth along the defensive line, but I’m not sure there is any transcendental talent that would push for the #1 pick. If the Big Ten is going to have a player contend for the 2025 #1 overall pick, I think it will be offensive tackle Aireontae Ersery.
Ersery earned 1st-team All-Big Ten last year and has started the past 26 games for the Gophers. He’s got the strength, frame, and movement skills to develop into the kind of linemen front offices salivate over. He still has a ways to develop, but with matchups against elite defenses like Iowa, Penn State, & Michigan on the schedule, Aireontae Ersery will have plenty of opportunities to show NFL GMs why he can be their franchise tackle.
Most Likely to Win the Heisman: Dillon Gabriel
Only four times in the 21st century has a QB failed to take home the Heisman. Dillon Gabriel is the clear-cut best quarterback in the Big Ten. He also has the best opportunity to put up Heisman-like numbers with an elite offensive line and Tez Johnson, Elijah Stewart, Jordan James, Terrance Ferguson, and so many others around him.
There is an argument to be made for Will Howard here, but I anticipate a much more run-oriented approach for the Buckeyes in 2024.
Best Couple: Quinshon Judkins & TreVeyon Henderson
TreVeyon’s Henderson only flaw over the past three seasons has been his health, missing 8 games and being banged up for plenty others. Even so, he’s racked up over 3,300 total yards and 37 total TDs with an absurd 6.2 yards per carry. He’s now joined by Quinshon Judkins, who’s put up over 3,000 total yards in the past two seasons alone.
Henderson’s speed & agility next to Judkins’ power & change-of-direction will be almost impossible to defend. Both are receiving threats coming out of the backfield, making this duo even more dangerous. This might be the best backfield we’ve seen since Reggie Bush and LenDale White.
Best Athlete: Kenneth Grant
Kenneth Grant is one of the nation’s best interior linemen for a reason: he’s a freak of nature. Grant is 6’3″ 340lb and moves like this:
Hottest Seat: James Franklin
I’m not sure there is a more divisive coach in college football right now than James Franklin. It’s a fact that he brought this program back from the dead – Penn State has been one of the 10 wingingest programs in the country since 2016. Many Penn State fans would argue that the program is as stable as ever and they would be silly to even consider moving on from Franklin, even without a playoff appearance in 2024. The Nittany Lions would’ve been in a 12-team CFP in six of the last eight seasons – the breakthrough is sure to come soon.
Those Penn State fans would be right to think so.
Even so, Penn State is 0-7 against Ohio State since that magical kick-six game. They have also dropped their past three against Michigan by a combined 36 points. The offense has been on a downward spiral since Trace McSorley. It doesn’t seem like Penn State is closing in on the upper-echelon of college football like they were a mere five years ago. Instead, the elites in college football seem to be separating themselves from Penn State.
An appearance in the CFP will quiet the haters and secure James Franklin’s job at least for the next couple seasons. But if they fail to even make the playoff, the screams may become too loud to ignore. Missing the CFP implies losing three or more games – something that is simply inexcusable with their talent and a schedule that avoids Michigan, Oregon, and Iowa.
Best New Head Coach: Curt Cignetti
Cignetti was 53-17 in six seasons at IUP. He brought Elon to back-to-back FCS playoff appearances in his only two seasons there before turning JMU into a national contender virtually overnight. He has a history of high-level winning and enters an Indiana program that has the resources to become nationally relevant.
The intentions of Curt Cignetti were clear at his introduction speech when he said “I don’t plan on taking a back seat to anybody… Purdue sucks — but so does Michigan and Ohio State”. He is here make Indiana a Big Ten contender.
An underrated quality of Cignetti is his flexibility. He isn’t glued to a certain offensive or defensive scheme. Rather, he tailors his scheme to his personnel.
The Hoosiers have one of the nation’s most underrated rosters thanks to one of the Big Ten’s best transfer classes. Expect this team to go to a bowl game in 2024 – at minimum – all thanks to Cignetti.