by Sean Szymczak
Michigan Faces Hard Truth
In the wake of Michigan’s 31-12 home loss at the hands of Texas, Wolverine fans have resorted to reflecting on 2023 – “we were national champions last year and nothing will change that” type of responses. Instead of looking at Saturday’s beatdown through the lens of the 2024 season, Michigan fans seem to have already resorted to living in the past.
College football continues to move on and its future does not look like it will be kind to Michigan, whether their fans want to acknowledge it or not.
It’s been clear since the beginning that Sherrone Moore was going to try to continue Jim Harbaugh’s approach & strategy – not introduce his own. That approach is one built on a great defense, a dominant offensive line, a down-hill run game, and a conservative pass game with some calculated deep shots. That approach is one that won Michigan a national championship. But with 2024’s personnel, it is an approach that could deliver a 7-5 season to the reigning champs.
Much of Michigan’s offensive woes can be blamed on their offensive line. They haven’t been terrible by many teams’ standards, but they have been a far cry from the standard set over the past three seasons. The interior hasn’t been able to sustain a push in the run game and the tackles haven’t consistently won 1:1 battles. But in a more macro view, one can justifiably believe Michigan can sustain above-average offensive line play in the long-term under Moore. However, it might not even matter if the QB outlook doesn’t improve drastically.
It is alarming, to say the least, how the QB situation for a reigning national champion became so disastrous so quickly. For that, there is no one else to blame other than Sherrone Moore.
In an effort to follow in Harbaugh’s footsteps and prove his belief in “their guys”, Moore did not even consider going after a QB in the transfer portal. After two games, Moore’s guys might be the worst quarterback room in the Big Ten.
JJ McCarthy may not have been spectacular at Michigan, but he was consistently accurate within 15 yards of the line of scrimmage, capable of pushing the ball down the field, a great decision-maker, and athletic enough to make the defense have to account for his legs. Davis Warren is none of those things. A second consecutive week of seeing him locking his eyes on his target, underthrowing guys, and just generally not seeming to be on the same page as his receivers, it’s clear Warren is closer to backup in the G5 than a starter for a national title contender.
Davis Warren’s performance once again brings me to the question: how bad is Alex Orji at throwing the football?? His athleticism is undeniable, yet the offensive staff hasn’t trusted him to run more than a QB draw. What can’t he do that we’ve seen Warren do?
It doesn’t any Wolverine QB that, outside of TE Colston Loveland, Michigan seems to lack any answer at receiver. Many of Warren’s incompletions against Texas weren’t great throws, but still managed to hit his receiver in the hands.
Needless to say, Michigan’s offense is a mess. Their defense is still great, but they would need to be the ’85 Bears to hold up and keep the Wolverines a national championship contender. This defense may be good enough to keep their head above water a generate a respectable eight or nine-win season this year, but is that sustainable under the offensive-oriented and inexperienced Moore?
There are legitimate questions to be asked about the state of the Michigan football program. For now, their fans don’t seem to be willing to even consider asking them. But with USC coming to town in two short weeks, it will only become tougher for them to keep their heads buried in the sand.
Time for the Huskers & Trojans to Talk CFP
As I evaluate the landscape of college football, it looks like Georgia, Ohio State, and Texas at the top. Then everyone else below them. Tennessee, Ole Miss, Miami, Penn State, and Oregon all still offer plenty of reason for optimism. But in the 12-team playoff era, it doesn’t look like you will need to be a truly dominant team in order to make the dance.
Through two weeks, Nebraska and USC look fully capable of winning 10 games and making the CFP.
The Huskers dominated Colorado from the jump, leading 28-0 at halftime and holding on for a 28-10 win. Dylan Raiola steals most of the headlines and justifiably so. He was tremendously poised for an 18-year old as he took care of the football and showed off his jaw-dropping arm talent on a bomb to Jaylen Lloyd.
But Nebraska isn’t a CFP contender because Dylan Raiola is a generational talent and lifting this offense to new heights. His future is tremendously bright, but he may not even be a top-5 QB in the Big Ten in 2024. Nebraska seems to finally be “back” largely because of their dominance along both lines of scrimmage.
Nebraska out-rushed Colorado 149-16. They sacked Shadeur Sanders six times while keeping Raiola’s jersey clean. They allowed only eight plays of 10+ yards the entire game while winning the turnover battle and possessing the ball for over 35 minutes. It was dominance in every fashion.
This blackshirt defense is good enough to keep Nebraska in almost every game moving forward and, unlike last year, the offense is no longer handing the game to their opponents.
USC being 2-0 isn’t the biggest surprise of 2024. But how they have won those two games might be.
Sure, Miller Moss has been spectacular. The wealth of talent at wide receiver and in the backfield has been evident. And this offensive line has been much improved from last year. All signs of a typical offensive reload under Lincoln Riley. But it’s the immediate impact D’Anton Lynn has had on this defense that makes USC a legitimate contender for the CFP, and maybe even the Big Ten.
The Trojans followed up their impressive outing against LSU with a shutout of Utah State – the program’s first in 13 seasons. USC has won the turnover battle in both games and allowed a combined 7-24 on 3rd down (29%). They aren’t a finished product yet – they still seem susceptible to the run without a lot of size up front. Even so, this has the looks of the best defense Lincoln Riley has had in his head-coaching career.
Nebraska travels to LA to take on USC on November 16th. There is a very real chance that game will determine a CFP birth.
Fool Me Once…
Through six quarters of football, I think Iowa had the entire country fooled. We should’ve all known better, shouldn’t we have?
Iowa had a 13-0 a couple minutes into the 2nd half. Their offense seemed to be humming thanks to Kaleb Johnson and they had the ball at the ISU 42. The Hawkeye defense was yielding nothing and it looked like they were on their way to cruise to an easy win over their rival.
Then, instead of continuing to run the ball with Kaleb Johnson, who had been nearly unstoppable all day, Phil Lester dialed up a pass and Cade McNamara threw it across his body for an interception. That was yet another instance of OC Phil Lester getting too cute. Iowa had 1st & goal from inside the 3 on two separate occasions and had to settle for field goals both times. On both possessions, Lester brought in four-TE sets. Those were the only instances in the entire game in which that jumbo set was used, and their appeared to be big miscommunications each time.
Cade McNamara had played like a competent QB through six quarters. Though unspectacular and not incredibly accurate, McNamara had been decisive and able to stretch the defense in some degree. Something changed in that second half. He was shaken, unsure, and woefully inaccurate.
Even with those mistakes, surely Iowa’s defense is great enough to keep Iowa State’s offense at bay and prevent any long plays, right? Well, their veteran secondary had two crucial miscommunications which also led to the Cyclones stealing this win. One resulted in a one-play, 75-yard touchdown to make it 19-14 late in the 3rd quarter. The other resulted in a 30-yard gain with less than 30 seconds left which set up their game-winning 54-yard field goal.
For a fleeting moment, it had seemed like Iowa figured something out on offense. But when they needed to generate some first downs, they were simply incapable. On their final five possessions, Iowa had three 3 & outs and generated 23 total yards. Then, on their Hail Mary attempt, Cade McNamara came up seven yards short of the endzone.
Saturday in Iowa City was truly a masterclass on how to blow a game. The fact that it was a game in which Iowa was so clearly the better team will make it an even bigger pill to swallow for Hawkeye fans.
Ducks Grounded
Week 1’s sluggish performance against Idaho could easily be brushed off as a bad game to start the season. Oregon’s 37-34 win over Boise State now raises significant red flags for their chances to compete in the Big Ten, let alone win their first national title in school history.
Through two games, Oregon has surrendered seven sacks & 13 TFLs while mustering a mere 3 yards per carry on the ground. An offensive line that was expected to be among the best in college football has been overwhelmed against two teams you’d expect a unit of their caliber to dominate.
The Duck defense has generated five sacks, 11 TFLs, and two turnovers so far, but they failed to contain Ashton Jeanty even when he was the only threat on the field. That speaks volumes about Jeanty’s greatness, but also about the susceptibility of what was supposed to be a championship defense.
For the second consecutive week, Dillon Gabriel was far from the reason that the Ducks found themselves in a dog fight as a massive home favorite. He was sharp and able to extend plays, saving the offensive line from giving up several more sacks. But the drop off from Bo Nix to Gabriel also appears evident.
Without a dominant offensive line or a 1st-round NFL QB, cracks in Oregon’s championship foundations are starting to show.
No Time to Rest for the Illini
Illinois had its first sellout in over a decade Saturday night when they hosted #19 Kansas. Bret Bielema seized the moment and captured tremendous momentum for the Illinois football program when they pulled off the 23-17 upset.
Luke Altmyer has blossomed in his second season with the program. He’s making better decisions and can stress the defense with his arm or ability to scramble. Altmyer came up with his biggest plays on the final two drives which totaled 122 yards and 10 points. The defense has also taken a big step forward, forcing eight turnovers in the first two games.
This is a pivotal season for Bret Bielema in his fourth season with Illinois. He seemed to be ahead of schedule in 2022 when they 8-5 and produced a litany of NFL talent, but disappointed last year with a 5-7 season on the back of poor offensive line play and a porous defense. Saturday was a big step forward for the program, but Illinois will still have to fight to get to a bowl game.
Despite their team success, Illinois has still struggled in the trenches. Their defense has generated the big plays Bielema tries to force similarly to his protégé, Ryan Walters, but they have struggled to contain the run. One could argue if Kansas had committed more to the run in the 2nd half that Illinois would not have won.
The offensive line looks to have improved tremendously in pass protection but still seems to be a work in progress in run blocking. RBs Feagin, Laughery, and Valentine combined for 75 yards on 2.7 yards per carry against Kansas. Altmyer generated the biggest play of the day on the ground – an 18-yard scramble which really showed off his speed.
Illinois is off to a great start and has a legitimate shot to finish with a winning record. But in order to do so, they need to quickly improve where it matters most in the Big Ten: in the trenches. They host Central Michigan this weekend before playing Nebraska, Penn State, Oregon, and Michigan all before November.
True Freshmen Making B1G Impacts
Jeremiah Smith (WR, Ohio State): The 18-year old genuinely might be the best wide receiver in the country. After dropping his first target on a tunnel screen (which might’ve gone for a touchdown) to open last week, Smith has been virtually undefendable. He’s shown off his crisp route-running, his jump-ball ability, and his game-breaking speed on his three TDs this season.
Nick Marsh (WR, Michigan State): Almost hiding in the shadow that Jeremiah Smith cast across the conference, Nick Marsh has ridden a tremendous spring into becoming the Spartans’ top receiving option. He exploded against Maryland with 8 catches for 194 yards and a TD off of a 77-yard bomb where Marsh outran the entire Terp secondary.
Kaj Sanders (S, Rutgers): Sanders was the recipient of a lot of praise from the coaching staff this off-season and was trusted with starting the season opener after Flip Dixon couldn’t go. He also saw significant time this weekend against Akron, totaling six tackles and a PBU so far this year.
Dylan Raiola (QB, Nebraska): This goes without saying. He’s completed 74% of his passes for 423 yards, 3 TDs, and 0 turnovers to start the season.
Ca’Lil Valentine (RB, Illinois): The former track-star has put up a modest 43 yards on 12 carries to start the season as Illinois’ RB3. But he made an impact on their upset win over Kansas when he found the gap and showed his speed to secure a late, key first down.