Last week: 0-0 (sorry :/ ) Overall: 8-2
I dropped the ball last week, but when I’ve made picks the results have been pretty solid!
1) Illinois (+7) at Wisconsin
I’m tempted to go balls to wall and take the ML, but I’ll play it safe and take Illinois to cover. The Illini should really be 4-0, but they gave their Big Ten opener away when they traveled to Evansville. Nonetheless, Illinois boasts a genuinely great defense and one of the Big Ten’s best playmakers in RB Chase Brown.
This game is likely to be ugly and taking the under at 43.5 points could be a good move too. The Badgers don’t seem to have their typical “bread and butter” they can lean back on to overpower less talented opponents. Wisconsin’s offensive line is as bad as it’s been the past decade. Braelon Allen is talented, but it will be tough to find room to run against this Illini front-7.
I think Wisconsin is going to be beat up following their blowout loss in Columbus last weekend. Meanwhile, Illinois got to rest up a bit with an easy 31-0 win over Chattanooga last weekend. This is a revenge game for Brett Bielema, and he’ll have his players ready to go off the kick off.
2) Purdue (+12) at Minnesota
*pending the status of QB Aidan O’Connell*
I’ve spent the past few weeks raving about how good Minnesota is and how they are the clear-cut favorite to take the West. Purdue struggled without their QB against FAU last week, and on paper this looks like another easy win for the Gophers.
But Purdue has been a pretty solid pick to cover in recent history. Prior to last week, Purdue was 6-2-1 ATS in their past 8 games, including 3 wins as the underdog. Minnesota’s defensive strength is shutting down the run, which benefits Purdue’s air-raid preference.
The Boilermakers are better than their 2-2 record and they fully understand the importance of this Big Ten West showdown. I love Minnesota this year, but I’m curious to see how they’ll react when their opponent punches back – something that hasn’t happened yet this year.
Minnesota’s edge along the offensive and defensive lines will win them this game. But I think Purdue (assuming O’Connell is healthy) is good enough to keep this one close.
3) Indiana (+5.5) at Nebraska
I’m just not convinced that a bye week and changed head coach & defensive coordinator will make a whole lot of difference. The Huskers are averaging over 500 yards allowed per game and will be susceptible to Connor Bazelak and the high-volume Hoosier passing offense.
I feel like the public expects Nebraska can top Indiana on talent alone – or maybe wants to believe it so. But the truth of the matter is Nebraska is not a good football team. It goes deeper than coaching or the transfer portal.
Expect a tight game. Indiana has been used to playing in tight games all season long so far, so they could very well win this game. But who knows. Maybe Nebraska’s turned a new stone and fixed their late-game bundles. Take the Hoosiers to cover.
4) Michigan (-10.5) at Iowa
This is definitely the bet I am least sure about. JJ McCarthy came back to earth last week against his first decent competition of the year. If his first read wasn’t there, McCarthy would either overthrow his next read or bail out of the pocket and try to make something happen with his legs. The former is much less likely to happen against Iowa.
But at the end of the day, this offense is by far the most talented Iowa has seen. Even last week against Rutgers (their top competition to date), they gave up over 360 yards. Iowa will be able to force enough mistakes to stay in the game, but I think Michigan is able to hit a couple big plays that the Iowa offense just won’t be able to keep up with.
5) Michigan at Iowa (U42)
This Hawkeye offense is still putrid. Even though the Wolverine defense showed some holes last week against Maryland, Iowa is a far cry from the offense Michigan went up against last week. Barring a defensive TD or extremely short field set up by the defense (both of which are very possible with this Iowa defense), the Hawkeyes aren’t going to put up more than 13 or so points.
In order for the over to hit, Michigan will have to top 30 points. The pace of the game should be slow and Michigan should be happy to sustain a 1-2 possession lead throughout. The Iowa defense is used to being on the field a lot and will not allow McCarthy and the offense to hit 30 points.