What we are witnessing in Bloomington is simply unprecedented. Indiana has been the doormat of the Big Ten for as long as most Hoosier fans have been alive. Consider these stats:
Indiana has three bowl wins in the history of their program
Their last conference title was 57 years ago
Over the past 30 seasons, they have only four winning seasons & 0 post-season wins
The Hoosiers won only 9 games over the past three seasons
Indiana has NEVER won more than 8 games in a single season
Curt Cignetti has taken everything we thought of the Indiana football program and thrown it out the window in a single season. Indiana is 7-0 for the first time in school history on the back of a high-powered & balanced offense, a defense that forces big plays & dominates 3rd down, and dominance along both lines of scrimmage. None of their success has had anything to do with luck or an easy schedule. They are dominant. Here are some stats in which they rank top-10 nationally:
Scoring offense
Total offense
Yards per play
Scoring defense
Total defense
Yards per play allowed
3rd-down offense
We’re more than half-way through the regular season. These numbers aren’t flukes anymore.
In one season, Cignetti has been able to implement everything that Luke Fickell & Matt Rhule have struggled in instill in their teams now over a season into their tenure. That’s not supposed to be a shot at Fickell or Rhule – both are excellent coaches. Building a football program into a national contender is not supposed to be easy and what we’ve seen out Wisconsin & Nebraska have been testaments to that. But Cignetti is treating this season like it’s a game of College Football 25 on Freshman mode.
Indiana is not supposed to be a program where you can build a CFP contender overnight. They have virtually no history of winning football. They don’t produce a lot of elite talent in-state. Their fans care more about their basketball program than they football. The school has rigorous academic standards and does not invest in their athletics like Ohio State or Michigan does. And yet, the likeliest scenario for Indiana is 2024 is an appearance in the College Football Playoff.
I wish I had more of answer to the how of it all. How was Cignetti able to turn both offensive & defensive lines around from one of the Big Ten’s worst to one of the best in a single season? How was he able to retain such elite talent at the offensive skill positions while also bringing in more elite talent via the portal? How was he able to turn former Ohio University starter Kurtis Rourke into a Heisman contender? How was he able to get an entire defense to master a new scheme so quickly?
Maybe Curt Cignetti is just that dude.
But what I do know is that this is the greatest season by a first-year head coach in the history of college football.
Some may point to Miami’s Larry Coker, who won the national championship in his first season with the Canes. But that Miami squad was loaded with talent and went 11-1 the previous season under Butch Davis. Others may point to Gus Malzhan, who brought Auburn to the national title game in his first season in 2013. But Malzhan had the benefit of being Auburn’s OC for several seasons before taking over the head coaching gig – including during their national title run in 2010.
Older folks may point to Oklahoma’s Barry Switzer in 1973 or USC’s John Robinson in 1976. But both of those head coaches took over successful programs whose coaches bolted for the NFL. They were set up for success.
Curt Cignetti has brought Indiana from the bowels of college football to the CFP conversation in mere months. Given what he was able to accomplish in one off-season, there’s no question in my mind he can maintain a successful program at Indiana for as long as he wants.
The only downside to this sudden success? Cignetti will be at the top of the list for every single head coach opening in the country this off-season. I doubt he will want to bolt from Bloomington so soon. But at some point, a school is bound to give Cignetti an offer he can’t refuse.
Husker Fans: Relax
Comparison is the thief of joy. After their 56-7 thrashing at the hands of Indiana, it’s easy for Husker fans to wonder how Curt Cignetti can bring his once bottom-dwelling school to incredible heights in a single season while Matt Rhule seems to still be treading water at a storied program like Nebraska.
When you are so desperate to taste the kind of success that Indiana is feasting on this season, it’s easy evaluate your own program based on someone else’s. But I beg Husker fans – don’t overreact to one game. Don’t turn against Matt Rhule. Don’t think Indiana’s insane first season under Cignetti is the new standard for college football rebuilds. Relax.
You haven’t made a bowl game since 2016. You went 5-7 last year. You are playing in arguably the toughest conference in college football. You are starting an 18-year old at quarterback. This season was never about reaching the mount top. It was about starting the climb. Despite Saturday’s beatdown, it’s still safe to say Nebraska’s program is heading in the right direction.
Raiola was always bound to have at least a couple head-scratching performances as a true freshman. The wide receiver position is proving to be the massive question mark I thought it was coming into the season. And the defense isn’t the vaunted, dominant unit it was crowned to be after they beat Colorado. All of that is true.
That isn’t to say this team hasn’t taken a significant step forward in Matt Rhule’s second season. Raiola is still far better than any QB they trotted out last year. He will still be in Lincoln for at least another two seasons and will continue to get better. The defense had a bad day against a better team, but is still in great hands under Tony White.
Nebraska is still off to their best start since 2016 and are essentially a lock to get back to their first bowl game since that season. They still have a realistic shot at a 9-3 record. And the transfer portal still gives them the chance to quickly replenish position groups that are lacking the talent they need to be legitimate contenders.
A 7 or 8-win season is what was expected coming into this season and a 7 or 8-win season is what looks like will be delivered. Does Saturday hurt? Absolutely. Is it frustrating se Indiana of all schools become a contender virtually overnight? Definitely. But does one game void everything Matt Rhule has accomplished? Hell no.
The Huskers are still better than they have been since Bo Pelini and are heading in the right direction. Having patience for a football program can be tough, but it is needed.
Leads Lost, Hopes Tossed for Trojans
After two games, everyone was quick to crown USC Big Ten and CFP contenders. But now the reality of Big Ten football is setting in. The Trojans are 1-4 in conference play and have blown a second-half lead in each of their four losses.
Logic might say USC’s blown leads are on the shoulders of their first-year starting QB Miller Moss. Or some coaching decisions. Or maybe the Trojan players just aren’t making plays in the clutch. But the real reason for their late-game struggles is the same reason I thought USC would have a rough first year in the country’s most physical conference.
USC is struggling mightily in the trenches. Moss and his deep cast of playmakers on offense have been enough to give them leads even against the Big Ten’s best defenses. In any close game, eliminating mistakes is key to victory. To close out tight wins in the Big Ten, you need to be able to pressure the quarterback, make tackles, and run the ball. The Trojans have been unable to do any of that.
Against Michigan, USC held a 4-point lead in the 4th quarter until a missed tackle sprung Kalel Mullings loose for a 60-yard run to set up the game-winning touchdown. In that game, USC ran the ball for 96 yards compared to Michigan’s 290.
Against Minnesota, USC held a 17-10 lead midway through the 4th quarter. But their defense gave up back-to-back touchdown drives of 65 and 75 yards. When they had the ball in a tied game with 7:00 left, they didn’t run the ball once and went three & out. The Trojans gave up 193 yards and 3 TDs on the ground in that game.
USC held a 20-6 halftime lead over Penn State. But their first three possessions of the second half totaled less than 50 yards and only 3 points. The Trojans gave up consecutive 70+ play drives to force overtime where they lost three yards on their first possession to set up a long field goal (which they missed).
And this past Saturday, USC had a 14-point lead over Maryland at two different points in the game. Most notably, they were up 28-14 with 13:00 left in the game. But a questionable call to kick a 41-yard field goal on 4th & 1 and a dropped pass on 4th to end the game. USC essentially abandoned the ground game, running the ball only 24 times in the game. They also failed to make Billy Edwards uncomfortable in the pocket, allowing him to pick them apart down the stretch.
The expectations put upon USC after their season-opening win against LSU were always too ambitious – the Trojans simply aren’t built to compete in the Big Ten right now. They need to take better care of the football and become bigger & tougher near the line of scrimmage. That kind of change was never going to be accomplished in a single season.
Even so, USC has been in every loss until the bitter end. Each more heartbreaking than the last, the losses are piling up fast for Lincoln Riley. With their schedule not getting any easier, a season that started with CFP hopes is now teetering on the brink of total collapse.
Luckily, the Trojans host a similarly spiraling Scarlet Knight squad this weekend. Getting the taste of victory back could help right the ship and set up a strong end to the 2024 season for USC. Speaking of Rutgers…
Schiano Squandering Golden Opportunity
Rutgers returned damn near everyone from 2023. QB Athan Kaliakmanis didn’t look special to start the season, but he was a substantial improvement from the poor play that has plagued this team for the past five seasons. They weren’t perfect, but Rutgers was 4-0 and eyeing a special season.
After 3 straight losses, their flaws are more evident than ever. Their defense is marred by injury and getting dominated up front. The receivers are a net negative and this passing game is still far from a finished product, yet Kirk Ciarrocca has consistently strayed away from running the ball as play-caller. And this team is making mistakes, turning the ball over, and beating themselves in ways you don’t expect out of a Greg Schiano team.
The only problem is this was the year that was supposed to be at least a little different. They were supposed to have the depth to handle injuries a little better. They were supposed to be experienced enough to avoid mistakes. They were supposed to be one of the best running teams in the Big Ten.
This was the season we were supposed to see exactly how competitive Rutgers can be. Instead, Rutgers lost to UCLA 35-32 in a game that wasn’t as close as the score indicates. Teams like UCLA were not supposed to be able to do this against this Rutgers team.
So even considering the injury problems, questions about the performance of this team are valid. It should be okay to question Greg Schiano about how his team can respond to a loss like this and about the overall direction of the program.
But when Schiano faced those question post-game, he had an interesting response:
“Just remember, we will get there, I promise you. So you want to call your shot now, just call it. But know that you’re calling your shot. This program will be just fine. Thank you.”
It sounded almost like a “what are you going to do about it?” kind of response. He’s Greg Schiano – the godfather of Rutgers football. They have no history without him. As if you’d fire him for ‘only’ going 6-6?
But that misses the point entirely. Rutgers is underperforming. This was the year they could have sniffed the top-25 and been talked about on a national scale. No one could have accounted for injuries, but they are also part of the game. And this is the product the fans get?
Rutgers’ ceiling as a college football team is not being able to even beat UCLA, maybe it really is about time the school ventures options outside of the Big Ten.
Big Ten Enters the Heisman Chat
At this point in the season, the Heisman looks like a two-horse race between Miami’s Cam Ward and Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty. But it’s only October. Miami & Boise State are far from perfect football teams and are very capable of stringing together a couple losses to end the season – losses which could end their Heisman run.
Oregon’s Dillon Gabriel has placed himself firmly in third in this race. Oregon’s undefeated record and his performance against Ohio State is arguably as good of a resume as Ward or Jeanty. If the Ducks win the Big Ten, there’s a very good chance he is hoisting the Heisman Trophy heading into the CFP.
Indiana’s Kurtis Rourke also placed himself in the Heisman discussion after another outstanding performance against Nebraska. If the Hoosiers were to upset Ohio State, it’s hard to imagine Rourke not making the ceremony. It is worth noting that Rourke missed the second half with a thumb injury and will reportedly be out “indefinitely.” But I’m not believing any rumors until we hear an update from Cignetti this week.
Drew Allar is another name that can’t be forgotten in this discussion. He’s top-10 nationally in yards per attempt & completion percentage and on pace for over 3,800 total yards and 34 total TDs by the end of the regular season. His home matchup against Ohio State will be one of the games of the season and give him the stage he needs to truly enter the conversation.
