With the new 12 Team Playoff comes a whole lot more teams to keep track of so we did it for you. This is a master list of all the teams that COULD still make the College Football Playoff. We will update every week what teams were eliminated and highlight CFP-changing games in the upcoming week.
by Jordan Beckley
Week 13 Update
What an absolutely insane College Football Saturday!
Three of the Two-loss SEC teams get upset and (most likely) eliminated from the College Football Playoff. Ohio State runs through Indiana all but guaranteeing a rematch vs. Oregon. The Hoosiers lose big, but also are probably a lock after the SEC’s downfall. Notre Dame HATES the US military. Kansas plays spoiler again. Arizona State is two wins away from making the CFP and much more.
This was such a landscape shifting Saturday that I am going to change the format of this week’s update. At this point we have enough CFP Rankings to know where the committee stands on most teams. Plus there are few enough games we can start to do If statements with confidence. So here is our Playoff Pool with bids starting to be divvied out.
Week 13 Playoff Pool
| ACC | Big Ten | Independent |
| 2 Bids: Miami SMU Clemson | 4 Bids: Oregon Ohio State Penn State Indiana | 2 Bids: Notre Dame Boise State UNLV Tulane Army |
| Big 12 | SEC |
| 1 Bid: Arizona State BYU *** Iowa State Colorado | 3 Bids: Texas Tennessee Georgia *** Ole Miss Alabama Texas A&M |
So, let’s talk thru what all happened.
I’ll get to the games and each team specific impact below, but here are the Big Takeaways from the weekend:
- The 1-loss IU vs 2-loss SEC debate is over before it begins with 3 of the 2-Loss SEC teams ending the debate themselves by losing games they can’t lose to three teams with 6 or fewer wins.
- The ACC runner up is now in the College Football Playoff
- Arizona State is likely the only Big 12 Champ who could get the 4th bye over Boise State
- Notre Dame just needs to win against USC next week and they have the no.6 seed and a first round home game locked in
- Unless, the Big Ten or ACC bubble teams all lose we have a pretty defined bid disbursement
We expected A&M to pickup another loss somewhere and miss the Playoff. Turns out we didn’t have to wait until the Texas game. Meanwhile Ole Miss and Alabama who were firmly in the playoff, now need a combination of South Carolina to beat Clemson, Cal to beat SMU, Maryland to beat Penn State, Purdue to beat IU, USC to beat Notre Dame, etc. to worm their way in there.
I think Florida, Oklahoma, and Auburn winning does tremendous work for the SEC to argue that their schedule is tougher and that teams no. 5-10 in the conference are better than the Big Ten’s no.5-10 but now it’s locked in that the Big Ten’s top 4 have been better than the SEC’s top 4. I can’t wait to see the angle Greg Sankey will try and come up with to get a 3-Loss SEC team in.
Still, Texas A&M, Ole Miss and Alabama aren’t fully eliminated because some Chaos could happen and Notre Dame, IU, Penn State, or the ACC runner up aren’t infallible. I have them below the line of demarcation in the table for a reason. Crossed off in pencil let’s go with.
Alright, let’s get to the specifics for each result.
Week 13 Playoff Shifting Games
- Ohio State over Indiana: 38-15
- Penn State over Minnesota: 26-25
- Notre Dame over Army: 49-14
- Oklahoma over Alabama: 24-3
- Florida over Ole Miss: 24-17
- Auburn over Texas A&M: 43-41 in 4OT
- Boise State over Wyoming: 17-13
- Arizona State over BYU: 28-23
- Kansas over Colorado: 37-21
What was supposed to be the biggest game of the day in Indiana at Ohio State was swung by two disastrous punt plays. The Buckeyes were the better team but a fumbled snap on one punt and a return touchdown on another left no room for a Hoosiers upset. What would’ve been a stressful two weeks for IU faithful was alleviated after the SEC collapse the rest of the night.
Penn State meanwhile did what the SEC teams have failed to do and snuck out a close win against the “better than you think” six-win team in Minnesota. James Franklin was bold and went for it multiple times on the final drive of the game including the fake punt below to make sure they win the game “with the ball in their hands” in a very similar way to how Ohio State ran out the clock on the Nittany Lions on the final drive.
Notre Dame cemented their hate for the US service academies by blowing out Army. The Fighiting Irish are a win against USC away from hosting a College Football Playoff game in South Bend while also being on the Texas side of the bracket and avoiding what will be the Oregon and Ohio State half of the bracket. Not bad for a team who can’t win a Conference Championship.
Jalen Milroe had three interceptions and the Tide amassed only 234 total yards and 3 points in an emphatic loss in Norman. Alabama now has losses to Vanderbilt, Tennessee and Oklahoma but wins over Georgia, South Carolina and Missouri. The Crimson Tide aren’t all the way out, but they really don’t control their own destiny going into the Iron Bowl against Auburn and are also eliminated from winning their way into the Playoff in the SEC championship.
Ole Miss ran into a buzzsaw in Florida down in Gainesville. Billy Napier and DJ Lagway have the Gators chomping with wins over LSU and Ole Miss in back to back weeks. Who would have thought going into Florida State Florida game that Mike Norvell would be the 2-9 head coach on the hot seat. Meanwhile Ole Miss now has losses to Florida and Kentucky preventing them from making the College Footba- and as I typed that Jaxson Dart just threw another game ending interception.
Jordan O’Hare delivered the magic once again in an impossible 4-overtime game. Auburn converts their 2-point conversion and A&M drops theirs. Somehow the Aggies can still make the SEC Championship with a win over Texas next weekend so they are not eliminated yet. Just have to beat Texas then Georgia back to back weeks. No problem!
Amid all the chaos, Boise State squeaked past a scare from 2-8 Wyoming 17-13. The Broncos needed a touchdown late in the 4th quarter to take back the lead for good. The mission has been the same all year for Boise. Just keep winning. They won’t control if they get a bye or not, but the odds are looking better each week.
That is because the Big 12 keeps messing up. Kansas is singlehandedly ruining the Big 12’s playoff hopes beating Iowa State, BYU and Colorado three straight weeks. After Arizona State handed BYU it’s second straight loss, the Sun Devils are improbably in the driver seat to make the College Football Playoff after being 3-9 last year in year one of Kenny Dillingham.
Week 14 Championship Tiebreakers & Preview
We have just one more week of games and then it’s Championship Week. Let’s go conference by conference who can still make it into both their Championship game and the CFP.
SEC
The SEC was the most complex league to figure out a week ago and now it’s the simplest. Georgia is finished at 6-2 SEC play with just Georgia Tech left. The Dawgs are the only team locked into the SEC Title game for now.
The other team in the SEC championship will be the winner of the Lone Star Showdown between Texas and Texas A&M. It will be the first time the Aggies and Longhorns have played in 13 years and it is do or die for A&M.
Tennessee is a big winner from this past Saturday. They need to just win at Vanderbilt next week and they’re into the CFP. The Vols are no longer the potential team left out and instead Bama and Ole Miss will be out unless upsets happen everywhere else.
Big Ten
Oregon is locked into the Big Ten Title game but who will they meet? Here are the four outcomes:
- Ohio State beats Michigan and sets up a rematch of no.1 vs. no.2
- OSU loses, Penn State wins – Nittany Lions vs Ducks
- OSU loses, Penn State loses, IU wins – Hoosiers vs Ducks in Indianapolis
- OSU loses, PSU loses, IU loses – Ohio State is in
All four Big Ten Teams could still make the Big Ten Championship and all four of them will be in the CFP if they win next week.
ACC
SMU clinched a spot in the ACC Title game in their first season in the conference. The Mustangs will meet Miami if the Canes beat Syracuse. If Syracuse pulls the upset, Clemson will be in the ACC Championship regardless of if they lose to South Carolina.
The ACC is a big winner from the SEC meltdown too. Now, if 1-loss SMU & Miami meet in the ACC Title it will be a game to decide who gets a bye and not an elimination game. However, I’m not sure if a 2nd ACC team gets in if Miami loses and Clemson wins the Title over SMU.
Big 12
The Big 12 is genuinely too complicated.
Arizona State, BYU, Iowa State, & Colorado are all still alive. Al of them are 6-2 in conference play and the tiebreakers from there are common opponents. Here is the sparknotes version of how this will play out…
- If all of them win, Arizona State will play BYU for the 2nd time in three weeks.
- Iowa State will make it in above Colorado if one of them stumbles against Arizona or Houston respectively.
- Colorado needs two of the teams in front of them to lose to make it to the Big 12 Title game
Even if the Buffs do make it and then they win the Big 12 Title game, the way the rules are written it’s not a guaranteed bid for the Big 12. There’s a chance that a Boise State as Mountain West Champ and a Tulane or Army as American Athletic Conference Champ are both higher ranked and therefore get the auto-bid above the Big 12.
Independents
Boise State is already in the Mountain West title game. The Broncos will either meet Colorado State or UNLV. Colorado State just lost to Fresno State for their first MWC loss. UNLV’s only MWC loss is to Boise State. Somehow the Rams and the Rebels don’t play this year. UNLV would most likely be in if they win due to being ranked higher in the CFP rankings. UNLV also would likely usurp Boise State’s CFP spot if they won the MWC Championship.
The American Title game is wrapped up already. Tulane and Army will play each other. Army will wait to play Navy until after the Title game. Tulane have played themselves back into the Playoff territory having won 8 straight after losing to K-State & Oklahoma earlier this year. The Green Wave play Memphis before meeting Army in the Title game.
The winner of American could sneak into the playoff if some chaos happens in the Mountain West, Big 12 or even the ACC. Tulane or Army will need a lot to happen for it to work, but they aren’t written off completely yet.
You get all that?
I don’t have any games to highlight as important games, because it’s Rivalry Week. All of these games mean a little bit more. Could Michigan ruin Ryan Day and Ohio State’s season? Can A&M spoil the Longhorns run? Will Auburn make Crimson Tide fans want Deboer fired after one season? Will USC be an ultimate spoiler to Notre Dame?
If we saw this sort of anarchy in a ho-hum Week 13, I can’t wait to see what Rivalry Week brings. Come back here next week and I will breakdown who’s in and who’s out and who will have a play-in on Champ Week!
Week 12 Update
BYU finally loses, Clemson survives on the legs of Cade Klubnik, Colorado chugs along, a nervy Oregon win, Notre Dame might be a wagon, Will Howard over Avery Johnson and we have five 2-loss SEC teams for three spots.
The College Football Playoff picture is getting thinner but muddier every week. Let’s dive in.
Week 12 Playoff Pool
| ACC | Big Ten | Independent |
| Miami SMU Clemson | Oregon Indiana Ohio State Penn State | Notre Dame Boise State Army UNLV |
| Big 12 | SEC |
BYU Colorado Arizona State | Texas Tennessee Alabama Ole Miss Georgia Texas A&M |
Week 12 Elimination Games
- Clemson over Pitt: 24-20
- Arizona State over Kansas State: 24-14
- South Carolina over Missouri: 34 -30
- New Mexico over Washington State: 38-35
- South Alabama over Louisiana: 24-22
- Stanford over Louisville*: 38-35
A busy week lead to five eliminations of teams we expected to not make it and took away any miracle run for Louisville to the CFP. However, almost all five of the eliminations were of teams that common sense indicated they weren’t making it. Still, that’s why I have been doing it this way is to not eliminate teams too early.
It was all but written in stone that Clemson would miss the College Football Playoff as they were down 3 with less than 90 seconds to play after Pitt hit the go ahead field goal, but then Cade Klubnik had his moment:
Klubnik slipped thru the middle of the field and scurried for a 50 yard game winning Touchdown. Pitt couldn’t answer in the time remaining and picked up their cross-off third loss. Maybe you don’t play for the Field Goal in a tie game with two minutes still on the clock next time Coach Narduzzi?
Elsewhere in the ACC, Louisville was still alive for the ACC championship and had good enough favor in the eyes of the CFP selection committee that I was debating adding them back to the Pool, but then 20-point underdogs Stanford upset Louisville on a 52-yard game winning field goal! Sorry Louisville, but now you definitely are out of the Playoff hunt.
We had a trio of longshots get eliminated in the later games yesterday too.
Washington State was lurking for the Independent bid if Army, UNLV & Boise State messed up. But the Cougars tripped first losing a dramatic game to New Mexico who took the lead for good with just 21 seconds remaining.
South Carolina topped that by recording the sixth and final lead change of the game against Missouri with just 16 seconds left.
Finally, super longshot Louisiana picked up their second loss after their 2-point conversion to tie the game failed with just 76 seconds left versus South Alabama.
The last elimination game is confusing. So, 2-loss Arizona State eliminated Kansas State by giving them their third loss. And Arizona State who is 5-2 in Big 12 play is still alive. But 5-2 in Big 12 play and higher ranked Iowa State is eliminated?
Barring Colorado, BYU and Arizona State failing to keep the Cyclones from winning the Big 12 title game there is no path for Iowa State to the CFP. The only path for Arizona State also involves winning the Big 12 title game, but their win/loss record is affected by QB health. Plus the Sun Devils control their destiny more than Iowa State as the Sun Devils play BYU next week.
You got it?
I know, even in an exercise like this where you try to include everyone, College Football is so convoluted that fans can be upset they aren’t the seventh team out of the playoff.
Week 12 Almost Elimination Games
- Georgia over Tennessee: 31-17
- Kansas over BYU: 17-13
- Oregon over Wisconsin: 16-13
- Boise State over San Jose State: 42-21
Kirby Smart and Georgia did what was necessary to stay alive and beat the Vols in Athens. The Dogs were tied at halftime but didn’t give up a single point in the 2nd. The loss puts Tennessee in the group of 5, as in the 5 SEC teams who have 2-losses: Tennessee, Georgia, Ole Miss, Alabama & Texas A&M.
If we lock Texas in as SEC champ, most likely only three of these teams can get in. If A&M can beat Texas in the final week of the year then we could have six 2-loss teams and a whole bunch of weird tie-breakers to sort thru just for the SEC Title game.
Outside of the SEC there were plenty of butterflies this weekend from some nervy finishes. Oregon had a true Big Ten road game experience eeking by Wisconsin in Madison. The final score might not show it, but for the first third of the game it looked like San Jose State was going to beat Boise State. Plus SMU survived a competitive Boston College team.
Week 13 Games with Major CFP Implications
- Indiana at Ohio State
- Ole Miss at Florida
- Penn State at Minnesota
- BYU at Arizona State
- Colorado at Kansas
- Texas A&M at Auburn
- Army at Notre Dame
As we all predicted, perhaps the biggest game of the year for creating potential College Football Playoff snubs will be Indiana at Ohio State in week 13. If Indiana loses, we will almost certainly be facing a 2-loss SEC team versus 1-loss Indiana debate for the final spot. Or how crazy will the debates get if 2-loss Ohio State is up against teams like Georgia, Tennessee, Bama, etc. for the final seed?
Yes, Hoosiers vs. Buckeyes will spark a North vs. South debate like no other no matter what happens.
The other biggest game is BYU at Arizona State which is everything but a play-in for the Big 12 Title game. The Cougs lost any leeway they had after dropping their first game to Kansas.
One of the biggest Army Notre Dame games ever will be played on Saturday in essentially a playoff elimination game. Army’s only chance to make the CFP revolves around beating Notre Dame and going undefeated to prove their case as being better than Boise State. The Irish meanwhile could have survived this game if they hadn’t lost to Northern Illinois. Can Army come up with a similar upset?
Ole Miss will need to stay alert against Florida who when DJ Lagway was playing was up on Georgia and just beat LSU. Penn State has absolutely no margin for error and cannot slip against Minnesota or Maryland the final two weeks. The Aggies are curiously only 2.5 point favorites at Auburn so I’ll flag that game. And Colorado needs to take Kansas seriously after the Jayhawks have played spoiler to Iowa State and BYU the past two weeks.
We know the vague outlines of the 12-team Playoff now.
The ACC & Big 12 are locked in as Champion bids only. We are getting 8 teams between SEC & Big Ten. Notre Dame is in if they win out. An extra SEC team gets in if they don’t. Finally, one of UNLV, Army or most likely Boise State will get the non power 4 bid.
At this point we won’t thin out this group of 20 much unless there are some upsets. But this is College Football baby! I’m excited to see who fumbles the bag with a lackluster rivalry week performance, who chokes in the Conference Championships, and the rest of the unexpected yet to come. I’ll be here with my pen ready to cross them off.
Week 11 Update
A disastrous Miami loss, Georgia pushed to the edge, and Iowa State & LSU embarrassed. It was a full week 11 with plenty of effects on the College Football Playoff. I’m ready to cross off three more teams and push many more to the verge of elimination so let’s update our College Football Playoff Pool.
Week 11 Playoff Pool
| ACC | Big Ten | Independent |
| Miami SMU Pitt Clemson | Oregon Indiana Ohio State Penn State | Notre Dame Boise State Army Wash. State UNLV Louisiana |
| Big 12 | SEC |
BYU Colorado Kansas State Arizona State | Texas Tennessee Alabama Ole Miss Georgia Texas A&M Missouri |
Week 11 Elimination Games
- BC over Syracuse: 37-31
- Kansas over Iowa State: 45-36
- Bama over LSU: 42-13
Like I am CNN or Foxnews on election night, I am ready to project Iowa State has missed the CFP. This may be unfair as Pitt and Georgia each got their 2nd loss on Saturday, but the Cyclones donât have the wins right now to stay in the discussion. Georgia does, and Pitt has games vs Clemson, Louisville and BC to prove themselves and make a run for the ACC still. Iowa State has an outside chance to win the Big 12 but that is the only way they can make it and I donât believe in it happening.
Syracuse is an standard goodbye with 3 losses. While LSU fans woke up full of shame after a dismantling in Baton Rouge to Alabama. The Tigers get their 3rd loss of the season thinning out the overpopulated SEC and Brian Kelly’s seat is officially hot.
Week 11 Almost Elimination Games
- Ole Miss over Georgia: 28-10
- Georgia Tech over Miami: 28-23
- Missouri over Oklahoma: 30-23
- BYU over Utah: 22-21
- Virginia over Pitt: 24-19
Carson Beck finally got his way and threw away a game! Now, Georgia and Kirby Smart have no room for error to close the season. Meanwhile, Ole Miss staves off elimination and lives to fight another day. Finally, Kiffin has a signature win. The Rebels just need to win at Florida and home against Mississippi State and theyâll be in.
The Hurricanes dropped one to Georgia Tech early Saturday, but they were in the best position of almost any team to afford a loss. The mission hasnât changed for Miami, just win the ACC and get that 4th bye by default.
BYU survived the Holy War and now is just a few wins away from a College Football Playoff berth. Everyone else in the Big 12 is barely hanging on with two losses but technically could beat the fighting Mormons and steal the Big 12 bid.
Just enough happened to not eliminate Missouri yesterday. The Tigers scored 13 points in the last 2 minutes to escape with a victory over Oklahoma and technically keep their playoff hopes alive. Chaos happening with the ACC getting weaker (Miami, Syracuse, Pitt) and enough teams in the SEC could just eliminate themselves for Mizzou to somehow be the last team in. Will they need Georgia, Ole Miss, Texas A&M to lose another game and Tennessee to lose two more? Yeah, probably. The Tigers have a somewhat easy schedule to close, but the fact that their best win is Vanderbilt means that if other teams keep winning Drinkwitzâs record team will be knocked out.
Week 12 Games with Major CFP Implications
- Clemson at Pitt
- Boise State at San Jose State
- Utah at Colorado
- Boston College at SMU
- Missouri at South Carolina
- Arizona State at Kansas State
- Tennessee at Georgia
Perhaps the only fan base in the SEC that was bummed about Georgia losing to Ole Miss was Tennessee. Now, the Vols must win in Athens to avoid being lumped in with all the other 2-loss SEC schools and likely be on the outside of that group.
Colorado turned on the jets late against Texas Tech to keep the Coach Prime CFP dream alive, but I am still putting them on this list every week.
If Boise State is going to drop a game before the Mountain West title game it would be at San Jose State. However, I still think the Broncos would make the playoff if they drop this game.
Clemson versus Pitt is a de facto elimination game from two teams whose odds of making it are already slim.
Plus, we have all the upsets I don’t have listed yet because we can’t predict them. Like a 2-6 Kansas demolishing Iowa State. We are down to 25 teams left and pretty soon we will be narrowing the field even closer to the final twelve. I’ll catch up with you next week after even more eliminations.
Week 10 Update
Another Ohio State win over Penn State, chaos in the Big 12 and more than a handful of teams losing to unranked opponents.
We are updating our College Football Playoff Elimination pool after the Week 10 games and despite a bye-week-filled, lackluster slate the elimination train kept moving. We have 5 teams eliminated from playoff contention this week and many more now pushed to the brink.
Week 10 Playoff Pool
| ACC | Big Ten | Independent |
| Miami SMU Pitt Clemson Syracuse | Oregon Indiana Ohio State Penn State | Notre Dame Boise State Army Wash. State UNLV Louisiana |
| Big 12 | SEC |
BYU Iowa State Colorado Kansas State Arizona State | Georgia Texas Tennessee Alabama Ole Miss Texas A&M LSU Missouri |
Week 10 Elimination Games
- Jacksonville State over Liberty: 31-21
- UTSA over Memphis: 44-36
- Miami over Duke: 53-31
- Minnesota over Illinois: 25-17
- Rice over Navy: 24-10
We knew this was coming. Our field is realistically bloated with teams we know aren’t going to make it. It wasn’t a matter of if they would lose but when.
Illinois and Duke will not be making magical runs to make the College Football Playoff. Duke +21.5 betters probably felt safe when the Blue Devils pulled within one with 14 minutes left at 31-32. But Miami scored 21 unanswered to win by 22 points and eliminate the Blue Devils from being any sort of Cinderella and cancel the Manny Diaz revenge game. Meanwhile the Golden Gophers broke their 0-10 curse against Bret Bielema lead teams and pulled away late in Champaign to hand the Illini their disqualifying third loss.
There will be not be a playoff bid stealing season for group of 5 hopefuls Memphis, Liberty, or Navy either getting a 2nd loss enough to eliminate them in a crowded Independent group.
And guess what? Our current group of 28 teams have plenty of obvious cuts that will lose soon enough too. Some of which just got closer to their ejections…
Week 10 Almost Elimination Games
- Ohio State over Penn State: 20-13
- Texas Tech over Iowa State: 23-22
- Houston over Kansas State: 24-19
- Syracuse over Virginia Tech: 38-31 OT
- Louisville over Clemson: 33-21
- South Carolina over Texas A&M: 44-20
A lot of playoff pressure was applied with these games, even if they didn’t officially eliminate everyone yet.
Penn State & James Franklin lose to Ohio State again. The Nittany Lions are still in great position to make the playoff, but they could have locked up a home game in the playoff with a win Saturday. PSU has Washington at home, at Purdue, at Minnesota and home vs Maryland left to finish up. You would think four wins gets them in the playoffs. The Nittany Lions are also now at the mercy of tiebreakers to try and make the Big Ten Championship.
Chaos in the Big 12! Two of the conference’s three best teams lost to unranked opponent. Texas Tech rebounded from their elimination last week to push Iowa State that much closer to theirs. Houston meanwhile has now put Big 12 preseason favorite Kansas State on the brink and the Wildcats likely need more help even if they win out.
Two of the biggest back breaking losses were Clemson losing at home to Louisville and Texas A&M dropping one to South Carolina. Must have been a great night to be a Gamecock!
The Tigers now need to win out against Virginia Tech in Blacksburg (not easy), at Pittsburgh (oof), the Citadel (dumb), and hosting South Carolina (clearly friskier than you think). Still, Clemson would need help to make the playoffs and a loss to Louisville really just takes away your control of your own destiny.
The Aggies are still alive, but they are now in the crowded 2-loss SEC group of 5 teams that ultimately will be competing for just one spot. A&M has two should-be wins in New Mexico State and Auburn the next two games, but their November 30th matchup with Texas just became a must win.
Meanwhile team’s like Georgia, Tennessee, and Syracuse escaped potential damnation surviving some scares on Saturday. Could any of those teams face it next week?
Week 10 Games with Major CFP Implications
- Colorado at Texas Tech
- BYU at Utah
- Michigan at Indiana
- Washington at Penn State
- Florida at Texas
- Georgia at Ole Miss
- Alabama at LSU
- Arkansas State at Louisiana
The conference with the most candidates left in the SEC will be whittled down after next week for sure.
Alabama playing at LSU with both teams at 6-2 (with one of those losses being theoretically bad) is a de facto elimination game. Ole Miss is also facing surefire elimination if they don’t upset Carson Beck and Georgia. Plus, Florida might have beaten Georgia if Lagway was healthy. The sneaky Gators probably won’t upset the Longhorns without him, but I’m putting the game on the board because I can.
The biggest winner of Iowa State & K-State flailing is Colorado whose longshot odds became a lot clearer. Win out, hope Notre Dame loses or win the whole Big 12 Title game and they are in. PRIME TIME! But, we just saw what Texas Tech can do, so keep an eye out for that matchup.
The rest of the games have upset potential. BYU could absolutely lose the Holy War and have their CFP credentials questioned. Washington is no pushover for Penn State. Michigan was a lot closer competitively with Oregon than the score suggests and is probably the best defense the Hoosiers have played all year. Finally, Arkansas State is one of the best in the Sun Belt and could eliminate Louisiana with a win.
Just by math we will have some attrition next week. I will see you back here to further cut down our list of College Football Playoff candidates!
The new 12 team College Football Playoff is more confusing than it sounds.
Casual fans are going to have questions.
Wait who get’s the byes? But Ohio State is ranked higher than Miami? What teams get home games again? What conference is Notre Dame in? Why did Boise State make it? Hold on IU made it??
Now, this isn’t an FAQ for the new playoff, but it is us trying to make sense of the hunt for the 12 available spots. There are way more teams to keep track of in all four major conferences and all the other potential at-large non-power 4 teams than in year’s past of the largely predictable four team format.
So, we put together a list of all the teams that still could make the playoff and are going to whittle it down week to week after teams get eliminated from contention.
For a refresher, the first four byes are earned by the Power 4 Conference Champions (ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC).
So, if a 9-3 Colorado makes the Big 12 title game and beats undefeated BYU then Coach Prime would get the no.4 seed and a bye despite more losses than other higher ranked teams. Seven of the remaining eight spots are the highest ranked teams in the CFP rankings from another selection committee! Hell yeah! Now, the exception is that the no.12 seed will almost certainly be the highest ranked Non-power 4 Conference Champion currently projected to be Boise State.
Okay enough explaining the playoff, let’s get to the list.
The list week to week is by no means the 40 or so best teams in the country even if it includes most of them. Rather this list is the 40 teams that have any chance of making the playoff still.
Is 90% of the SEC and Big Ten better than the Ragin’ Cajuns? Yes, but there’s no scenario where enough teams lose to put a 3+ loss Michigan in the playoff. While there is a scenario where enough Independent teams lose & Louisiana wins out to become the highest ranked non-power 4 Champion. So, that category is a little whacky especially since Notre Dame (famously not in a conference) can’t claim the at-large bid without a Conference Championship.
Alright, we made it thru the boring talking part. Here’s some names in a table for you to stare at and daydream about the path for every team to the glorious College Football Playoff.
Week 9 Playoff Pool
| ACC | Big Ten | Independent |
| Miami Clemson SMU Pitt Syracuse Duke | Oregon Penn State Indiana Ohio State Illinois Nebraska | Army Navy Notre Dame Boise State Wash. State UNLV Louisiana Liberty Memphis |
| Big 12 | SEC |
| Iowa State BYU Kansas State Arizona State | Georgia Texas LSU Texas A&M Tennessee Missouri Alabama Ole Miss |
Now, don’t get upset if your favorite team is not here. It just means we don’t envision any possible path no matter how many wins they get and losses other teams get for them to make it in. Oh wait, yeah I guess you can get upset.
Whatever, sorry to Arkansas, Michigan, Florida, Louisville, TCU, etc. fans but maybe your team shouldn’t have three losses before November if you want to make the playoff!
Now, the auto-bid of the Power-4 does mean certain teams might get a 2nd chance to make it back on this list and if enough losing and a big win streak for someone emerges we will add them accordingly, but for now this is our list.
So, the fun part of putting together a list like this is we can now highlight what games week to week might be potential elimination games from playoff contention. So, here are a handful of games from the Week 9 Slate that had serious playoff implications.
Week 9 Elimination Games
- South Alabama over Louisiana Monroe: 46-17
- Penn State over Wisconsin: 28-13
- Texas over Vandy: 27-24
- Colorado over Cincy: 34-23
- Ohio State over Nebraska: 21-17
A loose rule for elimination right now is 3 losses. We have 22 teams from the big four conferences with 2 losses or less bidding for only 10 or 11 spots. So, say goodbye to the CFP Wisconsin, Vandy, Cincy and Nebraska. It was a tall task to make it and you failed now rather than later. UL Monroe is eliminated with two losses as a two loss Sun Belt champion will not be ranked higher than the remaining best non-power 4 teams.
Week 9 Almost Elimination Games
- Boise State over UNLV: 29-24
- Pitt over Syracuse: 41-13
- SMU over Duke: 28-27 OT
- Bama over Mizzou: 34-0
- Notre Dame over Navy: 51-14
- Texas A&M over LSU: 38-23
We need some explanations here.
UNLV is still alive, but ULM isn’t? Yeah, if the Rebels win out and avenge the close Boise State loss in the Mountain West Title game they will likely be the highest rated Non-Power 4 Champ.
Navy was embarrassed, but they are still alive via the win-out path to a American Athletic Championship. However, they need a lot of help for that to even work. The Midshipmen need Boise State, UNLV, Washington State, Memphis,… well basically every team in the Independent column to lose 1-2 more games for them to make it.
Missouri was more than embarrassed by Alabama. SUBJECTIVELY, no one has watched Missouri this year fail upwards to a 6-2 record and thought they will make the playoff. OBJECTIVELY, we cannot eliminate a 6-2 SEC team who lost games with a hurt QB if they win out. Still, the Tigers will likely be crossed off soon so be patient.
Syracuse, Duke and LSU all lost to playoff hopefuls and are now two-loss teams. The Orange, Blue Devils and Tigers face the very hard path of winning out and hoping other things fall their way for CFP hopes to be realized.
Week 10 Games with Major CFP Implications
- Ohio State at Penn State
- Duke at Miami
- Pittsburgh at SMU
- Ole Miss at Arkansas
- Texas Tech at Iowa State
- UMass at Mississippi State (just kidding)
Week 10 is a little weak? There are a ton of byes in Week 10 and while some upsets might happen that become elimination games, there are just a handful of games that have obvious playoff-changing stakes.
Ohio State and Penn State is the big one this week and while it could shift seeds around tremendously most timelines will include both these teams making the playoffs. Duke will be eliminated unless they win at Hard Rock Stadium on Saturday. Pitt vs SMU is a sneaky imperative game in the stealthily entertaining ACC. Iowa State can’t fall asleep against recently eliminated Red Raiders. And Ole Miss can’t look past a trip to Fayetteville a week before their matchup with Georgia.
We will be back on this same post next week with an updated Playoff Pool, more eliminations and a look ahead at what could be a bloody Week 11. So, save or bookmark this link to keep track of all the teams battling for the 12 College Football Playoff Spots.