Cover 3
Sean & Jordan‘s 3 Big Ten Locks of the Week
Sean: 2-1 last week (14-13 overall)
Jordan: 1-2 last week (14-13 overall)
Sean’s 1st Pick: Ohio State (-37.5) vs Purdue
It’s hard to quantify how bad Purdue has been, but I can try.
The Boiler defense ranks outside the top-100 nationally in quite literally every defensive statistic I can find. Most notably, they are 133rd in turnovers forced and allow over 5 yards per carry.
Will Howard could play this game blindfolded and I’d still take Ohio State to cover.
Purdue’s offense is in a similar predicament as Penn State’s offense – their best weapons are a couple running backs and their tight end. Except no one on this offense is really comparable to Penn State talent-wise. Ohio State’s defense will be able to press their receivers and swarm the line of scrimmage. This offense hasn’t looked any better without Graham Harrell, who was fired mid-season. I’m not sure how Purdue can have any answer on offense.
This feels more like a 45-3 type game. Ohio State will cruise.
Jordan’s 1st Pick: Indiana (-14.5) vs Michigan
I have a very simple explanation of this pick.
Indiana needs to blow out Michigan to make the playoff.
Despite being 9-0 and looking like an absolute wagon, the Hoosiers are only no.9 in the first College Football Playoff rankings. If the Hoosiers drop their game in Columbus to no.2 ranked Ohio State they put their destiny in the hands of the CFP Committee who have already shown a bias towards traditional football programs over IU.
Coach Cignetti and the Hoosiers need to embarrass a Wolverine team in the same way Texas beat them earlier this season and match the 17 point win Oregon just had. The Hoosiers have a 50/50 shot against OSU at best and will earn no brownie points for beating Purdue by 100 this season.
Indiana only has this game to verify their name as one that belongs in the Top 12. Plus, Indiana is now Top-5 in scoring offense and defense because guess what? They are one of the 5 or so best teams in the country. Michigan looked more competent against the Ducks last week, but I am locking in this bet before this column even publishes.
Sean’s 2nd Pick: Minnesota (-6) vs Rutgers
After squeaking by Virginia Tech and Washington for a hot start, Rutgers’ season has spiraled quickly. They’ve lost four straight, including thorough spankings at the hands of Wisconsin & UCLA. Sure, a bye week is supposed to fix everything. But I’m not sure there’s a lot of hope to save this season for the Scarlet Knights.
The lack of an identity on offense hasn’t been helped by Rutgers’ severe lack of talent at pass-catcher. They’ve scored 21 or fewer points in four of their past five games and now face a Gopher defense that is finding its grove.
In fact, the entire Minnesota team is finally playing like the team I expected in the preseason. QB Max Brosmer is improving by the week and, most importantly, making smart decisions. Darius Taylor and Daniel Jackson – two of the best skill-position players in the Big Ten – are finally getting properly incorporated into the offense.
Rutgers has been pushed around along the defensive front all season. They have some standouts in the secondary like Max Longerbeam, but I trust Brosmer to take care of the football as he’s done in each of their past four games (all wins).
Minnesota is just the better team, plain and simple.
Jordan’s 2nd Pick: Iowa (-5.5) vs UCLA
UCLA has proven to be more competent recently with wins at Nebraska and Maryland the past two weeks. I prematurely buried the Bruins after losing 4 straight to IU, LSU, Oregon, and Penn State. Having four straight games to Top-15 teams is brutal and most middle of the pack teams would have the same results as UCLA.
The question with this game is how much you believe in Deshaun Foster turning the program around? Personally, I think UCLA is a 4-5 win team not a 6-7 win team and only proved the past few weeks they aren’t a 2-3 win team.
I can’t quit the Hawkeyes, because they just keep winning me money. It feels like we are building towards a classic 9-3 Iowa season where they sneak up to 19-22 range in the polls and fans are perfectly content being the “better than you think” team.
Plus, Brendan Sullivan looked great against Wisconsin who is (probably) a better team than UCLA.
Sean’s 3rd Pick: Indiana vs Michigan: O49.5
Will Johnson’s chances of playing haven’t sounded very promising which will once again expose an otherwise vulnerable secondary. Indiana’s offense is humming and Kurtis Rourke has no limit of weapons to distribute the ball to – which he is doing better than anyone in college football.
Indiana will have some trouble running the ball at some point in this game. But Rourke has proven to be perfectly capable of shouldering the load while taking care of the football. This isn’t a great Michigan defense anymore. They’ll need to play a lot better than they have in any game this season in order to slow down the Hoosier offense.
To Michigan’s credit, Davis Warren is finally starting to settle in and at least play like a D1 quarterback. Indiana’s defensive front has been elite all season but I’m not sure if they have a matchup answer for Colston Loveland. The Wolverines have been surprisingly capable of generating big plays on offense and will likely need to play catchup with Indiana.
I see this game playing out very similarly as last week’s matchup against Oregon for Michigan – one that easily hit the over. This one should get to 50.
Jordan’s Pick 3: Maryland vs Oregon: U57.5
So, real quick let’s break this down.
Maryland has hit the over in 7 of their 8 contests. Oregon averages 35ppg good for 23rd in the country. Maryland has a bottom third defense at 90th in the country. The Terps also has a good offense even in blowouts.
That’s why I love the UNDER in this game.
58 is too many points. Oregon’s defense has given up just 49 points in 5 Big Ten contests (outside of the OSU game) and no more than 17 in any one game. The only three games where Oregon has gone over 57.5 is a blowout of their rival Oregon State and then two essentially playoff games against Ohio State and Boise State. Maryland is neither a rival of the Ducks they would want to run up the score against nor a playoff level opponent.
I will say I am legally no longer allowed to bet Oregon spreads so that may have been what drove me to the under. Regardless, Under 57.5 probably up to 55.5 or 54.5 even.
Sean & Jordan’s Picks for Every Big Ten Game
Sean: 5-3 last week (54-38 overall)
Jordan: 4-4 last week (54-38 overall)
Disclaimer: Spreads & Over/Unders (left column) are updated up until kick-off, but our picks are locked in every Thursday. Follow @TheFloorSlap to get in on our picks ASAP!
| Game | Sean’s Picks | Jordan’s Picks |
| IOWA (-5.5) at UCLA O/U: 44.5 | Brendan Sullivan to the rescue! IOWA -5.5 | Am I a Hawk fan? IOWA -5.5 |
| PURD at OSU (-37.5) O/U: 53.5 | Purdue’s offense might score more points for OSU than they score themselves OSU -37.5 | OSU doesn’t score more than 7 TDs U53.5 |
| MINN (-6) at RUTG O/U: 46.5 | Same old Rutgers MINN -6 | I refuse to believe an over here U46.5 |
| MICH at IND (-14.5) O/U: 49.5 | No one is slowing down this Hoosier offense O49.5 | Hoosiers get 10 wins for the 1st time ever IND -14.5 |
| MD at OREG (-23.5) O/U: 57.5 | Cross-country travelers haven’t faired very well this year OREG -23.5 | Shut down D U57.5 |
| WASH at PSU (-13.5) O/U: 45.5 | Yes, I see the irony in picking against my previous pick’s logic WASH +13.5 | Too big WASH +13.5 |
$100 FanDuel Balance Challenge
| Last Week | Current Balance | |
| Sean | ($13.00) | $73.89 |
| Jordan | ($4.73) | $71.14 |
Sean’s Picks
Georgia (-2.5) vs Ole Miss (-120)
My picks haven’t been bad, but my budget distribution has cost me a lot of money over the past month. So let’s not get cute. Out of every game of the weekend, which pick do I have the strongest feeling about? This one right here – no question.
On paper, this is a nightmare matchup for a Georgia team that has lost their footing on offense and has been susceptible in the back-end on defense. But I’m throwing all that out. This one is about way more than what we’ve seen on the field from these teams over the past month. This is about two completely different programs.
This is Penn State vs Ohio State all over again. Both Penn State and Ole Miss are trying desperately to take the next step as a program and go from a really good team to a bon a fide championship contender. In order to take that step, they get an opportunity at home to take down a foe (and a coach) that has bullied them for years. And just like Penn State, Ole Miss will fall short.
This just feels like the game we’ve all been waiting for from Georgia. The one where they play like the force they’ve been over the past three seasons. The one where they smother the opponent along the line of scrimmage, force mistakes, and take care of the ball on offense.
This is Kirby Smart against Lane Kiffin. They are not in the same class and neither are these programs. In a game as high-stakes as this, I expect to see the very best from Smart’s Bulldogs. This is a stomping.
Betting $24 to win $20
Parlay: Ohio State (-37.5) vs Purdue, Indiana (-14.5) vs Michigan (+265)
The “I’m just that much better than you are” parlay.
Betting $10 to win $26.50
Jordan’s Picks
Ole Miss ML +118
Admittedly, this really isn’t that good of a spread for the risk. All of the bets and total handle is on Georgia not Ole Miss. Lane Kiffin and the Rebels never win a game like this.
Still, I can’t shake the feeling that this is the kind of year that would see Georgia lose to Ole Miss. I think we get some chaos. I think that Carson Beck gets his wish and finally gives a game away to an opponent.
Ole Miss has two losses already and is eliminated if they don’t win. The Rebels are better according to sportsbooks than they are in rankings. Ole Miss is at home and they have the better QB.
Give me a (Jaxson) Dart throw.
Betting $7.5 to win $8.85
Indiana -14.5 over Michigan
- Covered in Cover 3
Betting $10 to win $9.52
Iowa -5.5 over UCLA
- Covered in Cover 3
Betting $10 to win $8.20