1) The Big Ten West needs to step up
The jumbled mess in the Big Ten’s beta division is no surprise. I think every team except Northwestern (somehow, even Nebraska) has a legitimate path to Indianapolis. Entertainment in the form of upsets and close games will not be scarce in the Big Ten West this year.
But it’s about time everyone wakes up and realizes what the West is – a makeup of bad to mediocre football teams, the majority of which are stuck playing a brand of football that expired 15 years ago. The recipe of developing players, building around strong lines in lieu of speed, and minimizing the number of possessions in a game is just not sustainable anymore.
Going to a rowdy stadium like Kinnick in November under the lights and playing a scrappy, fundamentally-sound team is not easy. Especially given the familiarity of the Big Ten. And because of that, the Wisconsins, Iowas, and Northwesterns of the Big Ten have been able to able to pull out just enough big-time wins over the years to stay relevant. And when they play in a division full on like-minded teams, of course we are going to see some of these teams hit 9, 10, or even 11 wins on a consistent basis.
But in the year 2022, offense is at a premium. Not only is the game refereed in a way that favors offensive players, but it seems high school recruits are coming to college as better athletes as the years go by. There is insane speed at the top of every conference – not just the SEC. Combine the refereeing and the speed with more complicated and aggressive offensive philosophies, and you get offenses that can score on anyone. Even the best defenses in the country.
For reference, there was an average of 23 schools per season from 2003-2005 that held opponents under 20 point per game. Compared to today, there have been an average of 15 schools per season that hit that mark.
The college football world is changing and every team in the Big Ten West is getting left behind. They can simply no longer compete nationally. And when the Big Ten inevitably eliminates divisions because of how sorry the West is, these schools will be left in the basement of the Big Ten with no shot to win the conference.
So it is about time all 7 teams look themselves in the mirror and get with the program. NIL, the increase of speed on the field, and the importance of big brands in college football is not going anywhere. It’s about time these teams swap out their I-formations for some RPOs, and their “homegrown” coaches for names that can attract 4-star recruits. Otherwise, they stand no hope at sniffing a Big Ten Championship, let alone a CFP birth.
2) Don’t sleep on Illinois
Before I start praising the Illini, THIS is exactly what is wrong with the Big Ten West. Bret Bielema left Wisconsin because he thought he could build a winner at Arkansas. Despite some glimmers of hope in his first couple years, he ended up falling flat on his face.
As good of a coach as Bielema still is, he shouldn’t be able to turn Illinois – who hasn’t had a winning season or won a bowl game since 2011 – into the Big Ten West favorite in his 2nd season. In the East, rebuilding Indiana (in a non-COVID season) or Rutgers is a 5+ year job just to get to a bowl game consistently. Such is the disparity between the nation’s toughest division, and the nation’s weakest.
Nonetheless, credit where credit is due. Illinois is FOR REAL. Their defense obviously jumps out first, as it is one of the best in the country (not just the Big Ten). Illinois is 3rd nationally in ypg, 11th in passing defense, 3rd in rushing defense, and 6th in turnovers forced per game. With 5 games completed, those numbers hold real merit.
Iowa gets insane amounts of praise for their tenacious defense, but Illinois’ truthfully might be better. The only difference is Illinois has an offense that can actually move the ball.
Chase Brown is criminally underrated on the national stage. The dude is the definition of a bell-cow, averaging 24 carries per game (and that includes a few blowouts over Wyoming, Virginia, and Chattanooga where he wasn’t needed as much). In 5 games, Brown has put up 770 total yards and 5 total TDs at over 6 yards per carry. He is carrying the load for this offense.
Illinois is not quite as one-dimensional as we thought, either. Tommy DeVito is slowly improving as the season goes on, now completing 70% of his passes. Isaiah Williams & Brian Hightower offer DeVito a pair of reliable receivers who operate close to the line of scrimmage and give him easy throws. Tight ends Michael Marchese and Luke Ford are both dynamic in terms of their blocking and pass-catching ability. And the athletic Pat Bryant acts as the offense’s home-run threat, averaging almost 18 yards per catch (best on the team by far).
The offensive line, while incredibly tough in the run game, has trouble protecting DeVito in obvious passing situations. And DeVito’s lack of mobility doesn’t help either. He’s already been sacked 11 times in just 5 games. But every Big Ten West team has at least one glaring flaw.
Illinois doesn’t have to be even close to a perfect team to emerge from this division. As long as their defense remains as sound as it’s been and they limit turnovers (which was their downfall in their one loss at Indiana), Illinois can beat anyone in this division.
The Illini host Iowa and Minnesota before entering their bye week. Neither game should be pretty, but Illinois might be favored in both. Until we get an update on the severity of Mo Ibrahim’s injury, Illinois has positioned themselves as the favorite to win the West.
Say what you want about the Big Ten West (seriously, rip them apart because they suck), but Illinois has been one of the biggest surprises in all of college football.
3) Where does Wisconsin go from here?
I understand the firing of Paul Chryst. He lost 10 of his last 23 games, dropped a game at home against Washington State in which they dominated, and got absolutely floored by Ohio State at Illinois. It appeared Wisconsin was trending in the wrong direction. And when you have a coach on your staff with as much NFL buzz as Jim Leonhard has, you want to give him a shot before he jumps ship. So I get the decision to let Chryst go. To an extent…
But in all honestly, who does Wisconsin think they are? Before Barry Alvarez arrived in 1990, Wisconsin never had a 10-win season. In fact, Wisconsin’s national perception was closer to how Northwestern is perceived today. The Badgers had a nice stretch from 1950-60, but then finished the season ranked only 5 times over the next 32 seasons.
Alvarez instilled a developmental culture at Wisconsin that was built off of a big offensive line, a strong running game, stout defense, and limiting both turnovers and the number of possessions in a game. And Wisconsin has been better than anyone in the country at following that recipe. Paul Chryst was carrying that torch as well as anyone had. In fact, he had more 10-win seasons than any coach in Badger history.
COVID season aside, Chryst was on his way to his first sub-optimal season in his career. In 2021 they went 9-4 – a good season for Wisconsin by any measuring stick. Is one bad season really worth hitting reset? If you’re an Ohio State, Michigan, or Penn State, absolutely. But if you’re Wisconsin – who would be ecstatic to hit 10 wins in any given season – I am not so sure.
This move feels a lot like Nebraska’s firing of Bo Pelini. Nebraska still thought of themselves as the power-house from the ’90s. They thought of themselves as a blueblood of college football who should be competing for national titles. They decided they were better than a 9-4 football team and got rid of a solid coach in order to take a step forward.
Where did that leave them? They’ve finished above .500 just once since Pelini was fired in 2014 and are on their 3rd coach.
Maybe Wisconsin has a football prodigy in Jim Leonhard. Maybe Leonhard won’t skip a beat. Maybe Leonhard will be able to keep this football team nationally relevant and competitive with the Big Ten’s “big three.” Maybe.
Or maybe, Wisconsin made a huge mistake. Maybe Leonhard will have no idea what to do with the reigns all to himself. Maybe they’ll be forced to look at someone else at season’s end. And maybe no notable coach will be interested in going to butt-fuck Wisconsin to try to compete with a roster made up of 2 and 3 star recruits. Maybe Wisconsin isn’t better than having the occasional 6-6 season. Maybe, just maybe, Wisconsin fucked up. Badly. Maybe, the Badgers just fell into a Nebraska-sized hole and will struggle to sniff the top 25 for a long time.
4) Mel Tucker has a real problem
I knew MSU was overrated coming into this year. In fact, I had them finishing 5th in the East behind Maryland. There was just no way they could’ve fixed their back-7 while staying as productive on the offensive end as they were last year. Sparty was due to come down to Earth.
But goodness gracious. How can they be this bad?? Offense first. They are in the bottom half of the conference in the following categories:
- passing yards per game
- completion %
- rushing yards per game
- yards per carry
- total yards per game
- yards per play
- turnovers
This is the Big Ten. Not the Big 12. Five of the top ten defenses nationally reside in this conference. Just about every offense outside of Ohio State, Michigan, and Maryland have looked very worrisome. No matter how bad your defense is, your offense cannot be this bad in this conference if you have aspirations of winning 10 games. It just can’t be.
And it certainly doesn’t help when your “defensive-minded” head coach is fielding the second-worst defense in the conference behind Nebraska. Sparty is allowing opposing QBs to complete over 67% of their passes for 275 yards per game – both bottom two in the Big Ten. And they haven’t gotten an interception all year.
On the defensive side, MSU is also bottom five in the conference in ypc , yards per play, total yards per game, turnovers forced, and penalties. Their cornerback is on pace for 113 tackles this year. That helps explain why each of their past three games have been over before the 4th quarter even started.
The problem for Mel Tucker is that he is in his third year, and Michigan State appears to have only gone backwards. Payton Thorne hasn’t taken any steps forward since last year. Jayden Reed is a complete shell of himself at receiver. The offensive line is worse than it was last year. And the defense still has giant holes at all three levels.
At Michigan State, you have to be able to develop 3-star recruits into all-conference caliber players. You’ll never be able to out-recruit Michigan, no matter what happens on the football field. And this is the area where Mel Tucker seems to be struggling the most.
The worst part is he may not even get another season to prove he has this program headed in the right direction. Now sitting at 2-3, their next 4 games are Ohio State, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Illinois. I truly do not see how the Spartans get more than one win out of that stretch.
Michigan State then finishes with Rutgers, Indiana, and Penn State. Although they won’t be easy games, MSU still has a good chance to beat Rutgers and Indiana. But all in all, I’m seeing a 5-7 season. And that may be optimistic.
Is 5-7 good enough to keep Tucker around one more season? My gut says no.
5) Could Nebraska be on to something?
Look Nebraska still isn’t very good. But someone has to win this division. And on Saturday, Nebraska showed something they showed almost none of during Frost’s tenure: resilience.
Nebraska was outplaying Indiana for most of the game, leading 21-7 with 5 minutes left in the 1st half. But two quick Indiana TDs knotted it up at half. And a sloppy 3rd quarter led to game still being tied as the 3rd quarter entered it’s final minutes. Indiana had the ball and was in Nebraska territory.
I think everyone watching the game expected Indiana to take their first lead of the game, and for Nebraska to fall apart from there on out. But something happened…
Nebraska got a STOP! They forced Indiana to punt and three plays later, scored on a 71-yard TD bomb. And they never looked back.
There is talent on this team. Casey Thompson is incredibly athletic and has a great, though inconsistent, arm. His connection with receiver Trey Palmer is lethal. Running back Anthony Grant is one of the toughest runners in the Big Ten. Garrett Nelson is an effective pass rusher. Quinton Newsome and Marques Buford are capable of making plays at CB. And Luke Reimer is still one of the most consistent linebackers in the conference.
There are pieces there. There’s a reason why Nebraska was a popular pick to win the Big Ten West. And in the weakest and maybe most wide-open division in major college football, Nebraska only needs a couple upsets in order to reach Indy.
They have a couple big road trips to Rutgers and Purdue in the next couple weeks. Rutgers’ defense is no joke and they’ll be looking for their first home Big Ten win since 2017. And the crowd should be bumping under the lights. Purdue, meanwhile, is hoping to string together a few wins of their own in order to position themselves to take the Big Ten West crown.
Then Nebraska gets a bye. If the Cornhuskers can pull out a couple wins in what should be two close games against Rutgers and Purdue, they’ll play host to Illinois and Minnesota with an opportunity to take control of the West.
The reason I think Nebraska has a legitimate chance is because their biggest weakness – the defense – gets the benefit of going up against some of the sorriest offenses college football has to offer. Their other biggest weakness – late-game management – may have taken care of itself when Scott Frost left.
Don’t get your hopes up, Husker fans. You were still tied with one of the worst teams in the conference entering the 4th quarter at home. And there’s a very real chance you fall to perennial bottom-feeder Rutgers this weekend.
But anything is possible in the wild, wild west. Frankly, I wouldn’t be shocked in slightest if any team other than Northwestern makes it to Indianapolis this year.