by Sean Szymczak
Previewing the biggest matchups across the Big Ten in week 13.
Indiana vs Ohio State
Why this game matters:
This one goes without saying, no? Barring a massive upset in the final week of the regular season, the winner of this game is essentially guaranteed a spot in the Big Ten Championship alongside Oregon.
The assumption seems to be that a two-loss Ohio State would still make it into the playoff. Given their victory at Penn State and their tight loss at Oregon, that makes sense. Even so, a Buckeye loss would set Columbus on fire and have fans clamoring for Ryan Day’s firing once again. A loss may not end Ohio State’s national title hopes, but it would light a fire under Day’s seat.
On the flip side, this may be the biggest game in the history of Indiana football. A win would push them to 11-0 and secure their spot in the CFP. A close loss figures to still be enough to get the Hoosiers into the CFP over a two-loss SEC team. If the Hoosiers were to get blown out, though, the cries from down south may be too loud for the committee to ignore. If Indiana wants to capitalize on the greatest season in the history of their program, they need to do everything in their power to keep this game respectable.
But if you ask anyone in Bloomington, they’re not worried about keeping it close. They’re worried about winning.
Indiana wins if…
Mikail Kamara, James Carpenter, & CJ West make up one of the most fearsome defensive lines in college football. The trio has combined for 94 tackles, 15.5 sacks, & 28 TFLs. They are going up against an Ohio State offensive line who lost one of the best centers in the country during practice earlier this week when Seth McLaughlin tore his Achilles. This is a line that already lost their starting left tackle earlier this season. With no game reps to adjust to what will be their fourth combination of starters up front, the Buckeyes could overwhelmed at the point of attack.
Indiana needs to have success up front in order to pull off the upset, especially with their largely unproven secondary going up against arguably the best collection of skill position players in the country. If the Hoosiers can slow down the Buckeye rush attack and disrupt Will Howard’s timing, this secondary can be a little more aggressive and not worry about getting beat deep.
Offensively, everything has seemed to work for Indiana this season. That is, until the second half of the Michigan game. Indiana finally faced a defensive front that could push around their offensive line and the entire offense collapsed. One would think they will face a similar issue against Ohio State’s defensive front.
Indiana won’t find much success running up the middle and can’t have Kurtis Rourke sitting in the pocket for five seconds on every drop back. If the Hoosiers want to move the ball consistently against Ohio State, they are going to have to get the ball out of Rourke’s hands quickly and get him moving outside the pocket.
Luckily, Indiana has the pass-catchers necessary to do just that. They have five game-changing receivers who can win in 1:1 coverage. If Kurtis Rourke can make consistently good decisions, this offense has the capability of dinking and dunking their way down the field. If they do that enough with success, it would open up the downfield shots they need to pull off the upset.
Ohio State wins if…
Ohio State has embraced the “next man up” mentality with center Seth McLaughlin going down for the season. If the Buckeyes are able to get a similarly dominant performance out of their line like we’ve seen the past three weeks, it’s going to be difficult for Indiana to slow them down.
The Hoosiers have a great defensive line but they haven’t seen anything like this rush attack. If Ohio State’s offensive line doesn’t take a massive step back, Indiana will have to commit more guys to stopping the run. That will inevitably end up with guys like Egbuka and Jeremiah Smith in single coverage. Will Howard has improved week over week and will be able to capitalize.
If the Buckeye offensive line stays in tact, they should not have a problem putting up 30+ on Indiana.
Defensively, Ohio State is going to have their hands full. Indiana has too many weapons to believe you can completely shut them down. But Ohio State can afford to give up some chunk plays as long as they don’t end up in the end zone. This Indiana offense isn’t built to have success against a defense like Ohio State in the red zone. This is a “bend don’t break” type game for the Silver Bullets.
Success in the red-zone and along the offensive line will be paramount for a Buckeye victory.
Prediction:
Coming off of a bye week, I expect Curt Cignetti to have some tricks up his sleeve. The Hoosiers should start fast, letting Kurtis Rourke try to win this game with his arm. Denzel Burke has seemed to give up at least one big catch every game this season and Davison Igbinosun is one of the most penalized corners in college football. Indiana should come out of the gate got and move the ball with some success through the air.
However, I don’t see Indiana finding much success on the ground or in the red-zone. They won’t win this game with field goals, so I foresee some key 4th-down attempts for the Hoosiers. Indiana hasn’t played in an environment like Ohio Stadium yet this season, so that’s where I give the edge to the Buckeyes.
Indiana will do everything in their power to take away the run game and confuse Will Howard. They will force Howard to win the game with his arm which could result in some early mistakes like we saw against Penn State. I wouldn’t be surprised if Ohio State finds themselves in an early deficit.
But Will Howard has been one of the best second-half quarterbacks in college football. TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins are remarkably fresh for it being the third week in November and are nearly impossible to keep quiet for an entire game.
I expect a sharp first half from Indiana and they might even walk into halftime with the lead. But the Hoosiers won’t be able to keep the Buckeye offense quiet for long, meaning Kurtis Rourke is going to have to play four quarters of aggressive yet mistake-free football. I think the wheels come off of Indiana’s special season in the second half and Ohio State pulls away.
Ohio State wins 38-23, though the game will feel a little closer than that final score indicates.
Illinois vs Rutgers
Why this game matters:
Standing at 7-3 and #25 in the CFP Rankings, Illinois still has a chance at a very special season. An appearance in a top-notch bowl game like the Citrus Bowl against a CFP contender for a chance to get to 10 wins on the season is not out of the question for Illinois. This season has already far surpassed expectations. If they can finish strong and convince leaders of this team like QB Luke Altmyer and LB Dylan Rosiek to return in 2025, Illinois could have legitimate CFP hopes in the future.
Rutgers came into 2024 surprisingly high expectations – a rarity in Piscataway, NJ. After a litany of injuries and a four-game skid in the middle of the season, it seemed like the Scarlet Knights were spiraling. But they’ve gotten back on track with back-to-back wins over Minnesota and Maryland to reach bowl eligibility for the second straight season.
There’s still a ways to go, but Greg Schiano is trying to build something special at Rutgers for the second time in his coaching career. If they can manage to snag a top-25 win and end the season with four straight wins to go 8-4, it would provide tremendous momentum for a program who has continually improved on the recruitment trail. If the Scarlet Knights can’t pull that off, though, a 6-6 finish would feel like a disappointment given the preseason expectations.
Illinois wins if…
Illinois has had a fantastic defensive turnaround in 2024. They don’t commit penalties and thrive off of negative plays and forcing turnovers. However, they have been susceptible to the run. If Illinois can limit Kyle Monangai and put this game on Athan Kaliakmanis’ shoulders, the Illini have a great shot at winning. Kaliakmanis has been reliable for Rutgers and is playing his best football of the season, but doesn’t have a wide receiver that teams really need to game-plan for outside of Dymere Miller.
The game will also come down to the rush attack for Illinois’ offense. Rutgers has been gashed up front all season long, allowing 150 yards rushing per game at 5 yards per carry. They have a lot of talent in the back-end and are fully capable of forcing mistakes out of Luke Altmyer. If Josh McCray & Aiden Laughery can help Illinois stay ahead of the chains and force Rutgers to stack the box, Illinois should be able to control the pace of the game and get back home with a victory.
Rutgers wins if…
Similarly to Illinois, Rutgers’ chance at pulling off the victory will come down to the trenches. Luke Altmyer has a 6:1 TD:INT on the season and has one of the country’s most underrated receiving duos at his disposal in Pat Bryant & Zakhari Franklin. If Rutgers lets the Illinois run game get going, it could be a long day. The Scarlet Knights will undoubtedly need to focus on shutting down the run game and making Luke Altmyer as uncomfortable as possible if they want to win.
Offensively, Athan Kaliakmanis has to take care of the football. He also has to prove that he’s able to push the ball downfield early in the game in order to keep Illinois off the line of scrimmage and provide some room to run for Monangai.
Prediction:
Ultimately, the team that wins the turnover margin and runs the ball better will win this game. On the season, that team has tended to be Illinois. Both teams avoid mistakes and try to control the tempo of the game when they are on offense. There shouldn’t be too many fireworks in this game – it looks to be a traditional Big Ten ground-and-pound game.
Illinois is simply the more complete offense and has more answers to what defenses can throw at them than Rutgers does. This might be a back-and-forth game that comes down to the final possession. I trust Luke Altmyer more than Athan Kaliakmanis.
Illinois pulls out a 24-20 win.
Penn State vs Minnesota
Why this game matters:
Penn State hasn’t been immune to criticism in the CFP fiasco. They have wins over Illinois and West Virginia, but their schedule is still far from a gauntlet. If they were to drop a second game – especially to a team like Minnesota who won’t be sniffing the top 25 – it’s hard to imagine Penn State finding their way into the CFP. The Nittany Lions also need to win out to stay in contention for the Big Ten title.
Don’t tell Minnesota fans that this game doesn’t matter, either. They have won four of their past five and have finally found their footing on offense with Max Brosmer playing his best football of the year.
Penn State wins if…
Penn State has the better roster – there’s no question about that. If they don’t beat themselves (minimizing penalties, winning the turnover battle, converting in the red-zone), it’s hard to imagine Penn State falling.
Minnesota wins if…
Minnesota is going to have to try to make this game messy for Penn State. Whether that be riding RB Darius Taylor, controlling the clock, and minimizing possessions or airing it out and pushing the ball downfield against a Penn State secondary which is the weakness of their defense.
The Gophers will need to do everything in their power to keep Penn State’s defensive front on their heels. That will start with staying ahead of the chains and getting themselves into 3rd & shorts, where they can keep Penn State guessing as to whether they will run or pass.
On defense for Minnesota, they are going to have to find a way to steal some possessions. Whether that be forcing Drew Allar into a rare mistake, forcing them to field goals, coming up with a 4th-down stop, or maybe even a big play on special teams.
Prediction:
Minnesota fell to a surging Rutgers team last time we saw them, but they get the benefit of a bye week heading into this home matchup. I expect the Gophers to commit to the run game, stay ahead of the chains, and surprise the Nittany Lions with some shots to the ultra-talented Daniel Jackson.
Penn State has a great defense, but they have cruised the past two weeks against overmatched opponents upfront. They haven’t been punched in the mouth since they played Ohio State and they might have some trouble containing Darius Taylor to start the game.
Minnesota is quietly 11th nationally in total defense and could give Penn State’s offense some troubles. Justin Walley is an NFL corner and can take Harrison Wallace out of the game – Penn State’s only legitimate receiving threat opposite Tyler Warren. I’m not sure who on this Minnesota defense can match up with Warren, but I expect they took this extra week of preparation to gameplan for the swiss army knife and minimize his impact on the game.
The Gophers are going to keep this one close. But I think Drew Allar’s legs will ultimately be the difference. Minnesota is going to have to commit a lot of guys to stopping Warren, Singleton, & Allen which should leave gaps for Allar to scramble and extend plays. He’s an underrated athlete and has made game-changing plays with his legs all season.
Penn State escapes with a 30-24 win.
Wisconsin vs Nebraska
Why this game matters:
Wisconsin and Nebraska are on eerily similar paths. Both landed exciting head coaching hires in Luke Fickell and Matt Rhule last season. Both experienced disappointing first seasons and elevated expectations coming into 2024. Both have struggled mightily on the offensive side of the football and have had to make midseason changes to their offensive coaching staff. Both stand at 5-5 and desperately need to get to a bowl game in order to keep their coach’s seat from getting too hot entering 2025.
A win for either team will quiet their fanbases and give them the faith they need as they enter a pivotal third season under their new-ish regime. A loss is going to put backbreaking pressure to win their finale next week. For a game against a couple 5-5 teams, the stakes are as high as they possibly can be.
Wisconsin wins if…
With Phil Longo gone and the air-raid experiment in Madison finally put to rest, I expect to see an offense that resembles Wisconsin of old. At least that better be the case, because Wisconsin needs to keep the game out of Braedyn Locke’s hands if they want to win.
The Husker secondary has had their share of struggles this season, but they are top-35 nationally in sacks and interceptions. Even with star CB Tommi Hill out for the rest of the regular season, Locke is not going to be comfortable dropping back against this defense. It is imperative that Wisconsin finds their footing on the ground.
It’s going to be a similar story on the defensive side of the football for Wisconsin. They need to swarm the line of scrimmage and force Dylan Raiola to perform under pressure – something he has struggled with all season.
Nebraska wins if…
The Huskers have gotten into a bad habit of playing from behind, falling into early deficits in each of their past four games. That has put way too much pressure on Raiola, who hasn’t been able to lean on a strong run game to open up the pass when they are so desperately chasing points. If Nebraska wants to get their sixth win, they are going to have to get the run game going early. Dante Dowdell and Emmet Johnson have both been effective at running the ball – they just haven’t gotten the ball enough.
Defensively, the Huskers need to take WR Will Pauling out of the game. He is Locke’s safety net and the only reliable receiver the Badgers have. If they can take him away as the security blanket, Wisconsin won’t have any answer in the pass game. It goes without saying that the Blackshirt defense will also need to swarm the line of scrimmage and do everything in their power to limit the Badger run attack
Prediction:
This game is the definition of a pick ’em in my eyes. Both teams have very similar strengths & weaknesses and are equally as desperate for a victory.
I believe in Dylan Raiola more than Braedyn Locke – especially with the home crowd behind him. In a virtual must-win game that will go into the night, I expect the Husker crowd to be a major factor.
This game likely won’t be pretty, as both offenses have been allergic to mistake-free football all season long. Both teams are going to try to get the run game going early, but the game will likely come down to which offense can make the big play. I think the presence of Dana Holgorsen is going to unlock the potential of speedster Jaylen Lloyd – perhaps the most under-utilized weapon in the Big Ten.
The aura of the Big Ten West lives on in this matchup – a 16-13 Husker victory.