Power Ranking the top 16 teams in College Basketball one month into the season. The December gimmick is if each team’s stock has gone up, down or remained steady. Plus a record breaking number of teams in the Waiting Room to get into the Super 16.
by Jordan Beckley
Welcome to the Super Sixteen, my once a month National Power Ranking of the Top 16 teams in College Basketball!
Why Sixteen teams? Why only once a month? Why not every week? Or every day?!
I like to do Sixteen teams because I think there is a real line of demarcation after that where teams get muddier. Does anyone have a concrete reason for discerning a ranking between Illinois, Ole Misss or San Diego State right now? Or at the end of the year when every team has “yeah but they beat Team A” or “they suck they lost to Team B” justifications tied to them?
I also only do once a month because after the 6-10 games you might play in a month there’s enough to take stock of teams and move them up and down without being reactionary to a bad week of travel, bad matchup, etc.
And that’s exactly what we are doing here today! I am updating my preseason rankings and we are showing the stock rising of some teams and how the stocks fallen for others. Plus I write a sentence or two on a record breaking 17 teams in the Waiting Room.
DISCLAIMER: I started writing this last week and have had to constantly edit the list in reaction to the upsets and parity flooding the sport. If you’re upset because I didn’t drop a team far enough for a road loss, you need to get a better grasp on how College Basketball works!
1. Auburn
Stock Up 9 Spots
A little peak behind the curtain here but I locked in Auburn as my no.1 team one month in before they lost at Duke by a couple baskets.
The Tigers were a KenPom darling last year who flopped in the Tournament to Yale. Well, the engine of that team is back in NPOY candidate Johni Broome and he’s only gotten better. Everyone in their rotation can score giving them the no.1 KenPom offense but they also play good team defense especially Broome.
Bruce Pearl has a wagon of a team who have already beaten UNC, Iowa State and won at Houston. The loss to Duke in Cameron Indoor doesn’t change my opinion. They’ve leapfrogged everyone to be the betting favorite in the vaunted SEC and are even favorite to win the National Title now.
2. Tennessee
Stock Up 11 spots
The Vols are undefeated and untouchable so far.
Tennessee is passing every test convincingly. Rick Barnes’ team walked into the KFC Yum Center and spanked Louisville by 20+ points, they dispactched Virginia and Syracuse by 20+ points, and their closest game so far is a 15 point win over no.15 Baylor to win the Baha Mar Title.
The Vols are the no.2 team on KenPom, EvanMiya, and BartTorvik with a Top 10 offense and defense in efficiency. My worries about their frontcourt were wrong (so far) with Felix Okpara and Igor Milicic filling in seamlessly, Chaz Lanier is doing his best Dalton Knecht impression, the Vols have plenty of capable players (I kind of like everyone on their roster), and Zakai Zeigler is one of the 5 most impactful guards in the sport.
Tennessee’s schedule has been a little disappointing from what it looked like in the preseason, but they won’t have any nights off in the SEC this year. The Vols are tied with Alabama at the 2nd best odds (+320) to win the SEC behind Auburn, are tied with Houston and Kansas with the 4th best title odds, and just earned the no.1 spot in the AP Poll.
3. Duke
Stock Up 1 Spot
The Blue Devils just secured the victory that proved what our eyes and the numbers were saying: Duke is a real National Title favorite.
The win at home over Auburn isn’t enough to vault them all the way to no.1 (they’re just below the Tigers for Title odds after the win), but it did back up that the close losses to Kansas and Kentucky were more by isolated mistakes rather than worrisome habits.
Duke’s defense is for real. Whether Khaman Maluach is erasing shots or Duke goes small with Maliq Brown, the Blue Devils create deflections, prevent you from getting clean looks, and control the glass once you miss. Duke is a top 5% team in opponent FG% despite their top 20 strength of schedule and Cooper Flagg is the constant humming engine. A reclassified freshman is powering the no.1 defense on KenPom above programs defined by defense like Tennessee and Houston. That’s why he’s the no.1 NBA prospect.
4. Iowa State
Stock Up 1 Spot
I love this Iowa State team and it hurts putting them this low.
Last year TJ Otzelberger’s team wasn’t good enough offensively (no.52 on KenPom) to make it past Illinois in the Sweet 16 even with their no.1 overall defense. Now, the Cyclones’ offense is better and it’s their defense that needs to catch up a bit.
The offensive revolution has several reasons including obvious ones like shooting a few more threes, faster pace leading to more possessions, etc. but also the entire roster is just better offensively. Milan Momcilovic & (more so) Curtis Jones have made jumps offensively, incoming transfers Dishon Jackson & Joshua Jefferson fill the role player spots much better than last year’s team, and Keshon Gilbert is officially a star.
As a senior Gilbert has made a jump in shooting percentage, effective field goal percentage and assist rate. With 1st Team All-Big 12 guard Tamin Lipsey struggling, Gilbert is the no-doubt leader of this team and is an All-American one month in.
Iowa State lost at the buzzer to Auburn perhaps unluckily, showed Marquette what Hilton Magic is, and has beaten everyone else. My question for them will be if this efficiency and increased pace keeps up once the slog of Big 12 play begins.
5. Alabama
Stock Down 4 Spots
Unlike a good handful of teams so far Alabama’s schedule was exactly as hard as we expected it to be.
The Crimson Tide have collected two losses: a close loss to no.8 Purdue at Mackey Arena & a one-possession loss to now no.12 Oregon. Bama also has tight wins over Houston and Rutgers, crushed a Top-20 Illinois, and spanked a North Carolina team who just might not be good?
Losing a few games against ranked opponents in November is less concerning than the funk that preseason NPOY favorite Mark Sears is in. He’s shooting below 30% from three (on high volume) and has flopped against Illinois, Oregon, and disappeared at times versus Purdue. Latrell Wrightsell is now out for the year with a torn achilles, but the Tide have plenty of depth with Labaron Philon ahead of schedule and Aden Holloway & Jarin Stevenson rounding back into form.
Still, the National Title hopes of Alabama is built on Mark Sears being the best guard in the country. He will need to return to that level if they want to reach their ceiling. At 17-1 this is for sure my favorite National Title bet at the moment.
6. Kansas
Stock Down 3 Spots
The preseason no.1 team in the AP Poll has moved down 3 spots to no.6 on my list after losing two in a row.
This isn’t Kansas’ fault, but their schedule has fallen a little flat. The Jayhawks big wins are a one-possession win over North Carolina in Allen Fieldhouse (who now has 4 losses), an 8-point win on a neutral site against a meh Michigan State, while their three-point win over Duke on a neutral site is the victory still carrying water. While a loss at Creighton is forgivable, the loss to Missouri proves the fallibility of this team.
Kansas is still finding themselves with high dollar transfers AJ Storr, Rylan Griffen, and Zeke Mayo not holding up their end of the NIL deals. The Jayhawks have an okay offense and fairly good defense, but the offense is stilted given the talent. Balancing the frontcourt and solidifying the roles in the backcourt will be needed for this team to ever earn the no.1 spot in the AP Poll again.
7. Gonzaga
Stock Down 1 Spot
The Zags feel like they should be higher.
As Kenpom’s no. 4 team and no.2 offense Gonzaga is absolutely a real National Champ level team even down at 7. The supporting cast has been upgraded with Khalif Battle fitting in, Braden Huff taking a leap, and Michael Ajayi rounding out rotations. Plus, Ryan Nembhard has gone full Steve Nash mode and is averaging nearly 11 apg at an astronomical assist rate of 43.7%.
In a sport dominated by guards the trio of Nembhard, Nolan Hickman and Battle is about as good as you can get. Mark Few’s team is efficient everywhere, passes well, doesn’t turn the ball over, turns their opponent over, and rebounds at an elite level.
The Zags have a puzzling loss to West Virginia and their shootout with Kentucky could have gone either way. Warning signs are there for Gonzaga’s defense, but put their offense head to head against anyone and they can outscore them.
8. Kentucky
Stock Up 9 Spots (Unranked)
We’ve reached the part of the rankings where it’s going to get a little subjective. Yes, Kentucky just beat Gonzaga but is ranked behind them. All the next couple of teams have had recent losses. No, a loss at Clemson doesn’t change my opinion of Kentucky. The same way a loss for Gonzaga in Overtime to another Top 10 team doesn’t knock them below even that same team.
Kentucky has maybe the two best wins of any one College Basketball team with wins over Duke and Gonzaga on neutral sites. Compared to other teams on this list, I believe Kentucky has been playing at their ceiling while others are still trying to reach theirs.
This is a piece-meal roster of transfers, but man do they make sense together. Amari Williams is one of the best defensive players in the country, Koby Brea might be the best three point shooter alive (not named Curry), and the guards of Otega Oweh, Jaxson Robinson, Lamont Butler and Kerr Kriisa are just so much fun. It’s a greater-than-the-sum of their parts team and that’s a credit to Mark Pope and his staff for putting together a whole new team on short notice that makes sense.
Big Blue Nation has a real team to root for and not just a bunch of prospects. BBN can be upset that I put them “too low” or they can acknowledge this team has been crushing preseason expectations (even at no.8) and having two tight games against Top-10 teams go their way should have them feeling pumped Mark Pope is their coach. Realizing that this will likely be Pope’s least talented team in his tenure has to feel amazing.
9. Houston
Stock Up 2 Spots
The Cougs have picked up a couple close agonizing losses (Auburn, Bama, SDSU) and I moved them up three spots?
Yes. I was lower on Houston than national average because I thought Houston would miss Jamal Shead more than was expected. While others might be reaching that conclusion now, I am less convinced of my original thesis.
I kind of forgot how good Emanuel Sharp looked down the stretch last year and he’s carrying over that form this season. Oklahoma transfer Milos Uzan and a healthy Terrance Arceneaux are upgrades on the periphery and overall the Cougars are one of the best three point shooting teams in the country. At the same time they take a ton of terrible low percentage twos and expect the offensive rebounding to make up for it.
Houston’s offense looks better this season, but is actually the same exact offensive rating as last years team while the defense is 4 points worse. I think Kelvin Sampson’s system can win 90% of college basketball games, but is it a good enough to win a National Title? When you get to the tournament and a team that actually can scrap with the Cougs and even punch back plays Houston… what is their answer?
10. Marquette
Stock Up 7 Spots (from Waiting Room)
I will not be punishing the Golden Eagles for losing at Hilton Coliseum.
Marquette had a lot of questions losing Tyler Kolek and Oso Ighodaro from last year’s team, and for the most part they’ve been answered. Kam Jones has evolved to be a 1st Team All-American and no longer just a scorer upping his assists to 6.6 a game going from a 16% assist rate last year to above 40% this season. Jones’ replaced Kolek as the lead guard running the offense while also increasing his shooting percentages. Meanwhile, no more Kolek has unleashed Stevie Mitchell & Chase Ross defensively. Marquette is 99th percentile in steals, opposing turnovers overall, and fewest turnovers themselves.
Coach Smart’s team has won at Maryland (ask Ohio State how easy that is), protected home court against Purdue, swatted away rival Wisconsin, and lost at one of the 5 toughest places to play to a Top 5 team. Marquette looks the part of a Top 10 team, but what’s their ceiling? We’re still learning that, but the Golden Eagles absolutely should be aiming for another Big East Title.
11. Florida
Stock Up 6 Spots (Unranked)
Florida is the first team in this rankings to come from outside my preseason Super 16 (or the Waiting Room) to make this month’s list.
The Gators are an elite offensive team and are annihilating anybody in their path. Now that path has not been impressive, but beating every team by more than a dozen plus points is impressive no matter who you play. Walter Clayton and Will Richard are back and playing great ball while Florida Atlantic transfer Alijah Martin has raised the ceiling of this team.
Ignoring the off-court pastimes of Todd Golden, this has been a fun season for Florida Basketball. We will learn plenty more about the Gators in the gauntlet of SEC play.
12. Purdue
Stock Up 0 Spots
I feel almost exactly the same about Purdue now as I did before the season.
Purdue has shown they are capable of beating anyone (Alabama) but also aren’t 34-5 juggernaut they were under Zach Edey after escaping Ole Miss and getting jumped by Marquette and Penn State. I have a feeling Braden Smith is going to be snubbed as a 1st Team All-American despite him being maybe the most indispensable player in the sport. Smith’s two man game with Trey Kaufman-Renn has been the play the entire Purdue offense is built off of and TKR’s evolution has been just as invaluable.
The Boilers are just more beatable this season. The defense doesn’t gamble being at the bottom 5% of all of College Basketball at steals and forced turnovers and are very vulnerable if teams are hitting tough shots. While Purdue is again one of the best shooting teams in the country… one rough shooting stretch from their streaky shooters could doom them. Perhaps the most noticeable gap from last year’s team (with Edey) is on the boards, especially on offensive rebounds.
Matt Painter and Purdue are again good enough to win the Big Ten again, but there might be too many chinks in the chain for a return to the Final Four.
13. Oregon
Stock Up 4 Spots (Unranked)
The Ducks bullied their way in here after beating Texas A&M, San Diego State and Alabama to win the Players Era Festival in Las Vegas.
Nate Bittle has been a revelation down low, TJ Bamba is good again, and really all of the questions for Oregon coming into the season have been answered in a predominantly positive way for them. All of this and Jackson Shelstad still hasn’t slipped out of his slump yet. There is a higher (potentially Big Ten Champion) ceiling for this team.
I am not punishing Oregon at all for the loss to UCLA which by the way UCLA is good, but also if it wasn’t for a falling down, banked in three the Ducks would have won.
14. UConn
Stock Down 12 Spots
Nobody was happier to watch the Maui Meltdown of the Huskies than me.
While I think by AP Poll standards that UConn should have dropped out of the Top 25, I also actively think they are a top 16 team and the win over Baylor proves it. Yes, Baylor didn’t have VJ Edgecomb and Jeremy Roach got knocked out of the game early, but UConn didn’t have Alex Karaban and I honestly don’t care. Winning against Baylor was clearly a slump buster and confidence builder for UConn and especially Aidan Mahaney. Following that up with a true road win at Texas solidifies them as still a Super Sixteen worthy inclusion.
There are plenty of questions with UConn. Should Tarris Reed or Samson Johnson start? Can Solo Ball and Liam McNeeley be more consistent? What can UConn realistically expect from Mahaney and Hassan Diarra in the backcourt?
For all the excitement for their downfall in Maui, realistically UConn still belongs here with Coach Hurley.
15. Cincinnati
Stock Up 2 Spots (from Waiting Room)
Winning on the road is hard in College Basketball.
So, I will forgive a loss at Villanova last week for Cincy. If you wanted to tear apart my rankings and say Cincy hasn’t played anybody to be up here… I get that. This is where it gets a little subjective.
The talent of Cincinnati and the underlying metrics make me believe the Bearcats belong here. Plus if you look at who’s left to rank there are plenty of arguments against each candidate. Give me Jizzle James and Dillon Mitchell! The Bearcats can prove their ranking with a win in the Crosstown Shootout on Saturday.
16. Mystery Team…
Do I have to pick a 16th team?
Originally I had Wisconsin here, but a loss to Michigan at home and their best win being Pitt (who just got murdered by Mississippi State) doesn’t look as good. I can’t put Pitt after that game versus the Bulldogs. Mississippi State can’t make the list because they lost their only other good game against Butler. Teams like Baylor and UNC have lost too many games.
I’ll just give it to Clemson whose upset over Kentucky is a credit to how Brad Brownell has lifted this program to be in this top teams discussion instead of Bubble Watch. The Tigers only loss is a cross country road game to Boise State, but a win over Kentucky and Penn State is good enough for me.
The Waiting Room
Here are a few teams that are in the waiting room to get into the Super Sixteen. At any point the waiting room could have anywhere from ten teams to just two teams. This time I have a record breaking 17 teams rounding me out at a Top-33. Perfect.
For the most part teams 20-40 in College Basketball are pretty fluid, and we have really been seeing that in the results. You may believe your team is obviously better than the other teams in the Waiting Room and in time they may prove that or more likely they will win some and lose some like most good-not-great CBB teams.
UCLA can’t really score, but their defense is so good that they are quietly no.14 on KenPom. A win over Oregon officially gets them in the Waiting Room while the loss to New Mexico prevents them from making the Super 16.
A home loss to Michigan is enough to knock Wisconsin out of the Super 16 despite wins over Pitt, UCF, & Arizona.
Illinois looks really good when they’re winning and looks like junk when they aren’t.
A loss to Wake Forest is dampening an otherwise amazing start for Michigan. Can you tell I don’t know what to do with all these Big Ten teams?
I’m counting the St. John’s game as a loss for Baylor, which would give them 4 losses including blowouts to Tennessee and Gonzaga. The Arkansas win isn’t as impressive and I just need more from the Bears to make the Super 16.
North Carolina is quietly 5-4 and has more warning signs than UConn does it’s just Hubert Davis isn’t as demonstrative on the sideline (and they haven’t won back to back titles).
Texas A&M is a good not great team right now who is slightly underperforming with a very tough schedule.
Josh Hubbard is legit, but Mississippi State‘s schedule hasn’t been good enough to get them out of the Waiting Room.
Ole Miss maybe should be above Clemson as the no.16 team after crushing Louisville and being a rebound away from beating Purdue.
Memphis beat UConn but so did Colorado (80+ KenPom rank). MSU isn’t a great win and the Tigers lost to Auburn easily. The Arkansas State loss locks them as outside of the Super 16.
Pitt were a buzzer beating three away from having lost three straight, but I promise this team is good!
Where would St. John’s be ranked if Baylor didn’t hit that desperation three to beat them?
San Diego State is just a tough out every single year and I need to make a rule to have them in the Waiting Room every year.
My Final Four in the waiting room are Arkansas, Arizona, Creighton & Indiana. All are teams from the preseason Super 16 that have embarrassing losses, but I’m not ready to be out on. At least one of these teams will be back in the Super 16 eventually (I think).
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