Last Week: 4-1 Overall: 12-3
Woooo wee! The wins keep on coming. My only loss last weekend was thinking Indiana could keep it close against Nebraska – I pick I still have zero regrets about considering what we’ve seen from Nebraska over the past few years.
This week, Nebraska travels to Piscataway to take on Rutgers Friday night. Then, we have 5 Big Ten matchups throughout the day on Saturday. While Ohio State and Michigan figure to handle MSU and Indiana, respectively, all the other matchups look to be relatively evenly matched.
I’ve been making a living on Iowa unders so far this year, but I didn’t make any over/under picks for this week. Instead, I like a lot of the underdogs in a week that should provide us with plenty of close games.
Let’s win you some more money. Here are my betting picks for the Big Ten in week 6.
Purdue (+3) at Maryland
The Boilermakers have finally discovered a semblance of a run game, which makes them a very dangerous team in the wide-open Big Ten West. After pulling off a massive upset in Minnesota last weekend, they travel to Maryland to take on a team that has firmly cemented themselves as the 4th-best team in the conference.
Purdue won last week despite a very mediocre game from QB Aidan O’Connell. That shouldn’t happen again. Especially when you consider the wholes this Maryland team has in the back-7. Their defense is not comparable to Minnesota’s.
But at the same time, this high-flying Maryland passing attack is not comparable to the Ibrahim-less team Purdue faced last weekend. Purdue’s offense is going to have to score more than 20 points if they want a shot at winning this game. And I think O’Connell and his favorite receiver Charlie Jones are going to put up some big numbers against a defense that’s allowing over 250 pass yards per game.
I like this Maryland team too much to pick them to get upset at home. Especially when you consider Purdue’s inability to close out wins in their two losses. But Purdue is starting to get the swagger back they had last year. This should be a great game that comes down the final minutes. I like Purdue to keep it within a field goal.
Nebraska at Rutgers (+3)
Rutgers is seeking their first home Big Ten win since in 5 years. They’re playing under the lights and might finally have a fully healthy QB room. Not to mention, their defense is for real. Yes, they gave up 49 points to Ohio State (the best offense in the country). But they left the OSU passing attack looking for answers for the majority of the game.
These two teams are polar opposites. Rutgers’ incompetence comes on the offensive side of the ball, while Nebraska’s is on defense. This should be a tight game throughout between a couple of evenly matched games. In fact, I’d lean Rutgers ML if it weren’t for what I saw last week from Nebraska. They may have finally turned a stone in their late-game blunders with the departure of Scott Frost.
I like Nebraska to win because they have a trio of offensive playmakers in Casey Thompson, Anthony Grant, and Trey Palmer that can make big plays late. But Rutgers defense should be able to force enough mistakes to stay in it. And by playing one of the worst defenses they’ve seen to date, the Scarlet Knights have a good shot to put up the most points they’ve put up against an FBS school all year.
I think this game comes down to the wire. Nebraska wins by a field goal or less.
Michigan (-22.5) at Indiana
I understand the narrative. Indiana has played Michigan tough in recent years, particularly in Bloomington. And maybe if this game was being played in primetime, I’d side with the Hoosiers. But Michigan is a really really good football team. And Indiana is not. Simple as that.
Turnovers are likely the only way Indiana hangs around in this game. And Michigan has turned the ball over less than anyone in the Big Ten. They have one of the country’s best offensive lines and have no problem with running the ball 10 times in a row. This coaching staff seems to understand McCarthy is still a young QB who can make some mistakes and is not putting him in any position to make those mistakes.
This Michigan team is taking care of business in a way they usually don’t. This line is absurdly low given the talent difference between the two squads. If Ohio State was playing in this game instead of Michigan, the line would probably be 33.
Indiana has committed 1.8 turnovers per game and is 11th in the Big Ten with 384 total yards per game. There just isn’t enough fire power on either side of the ball for me to think they can keep this game close.
Iowa (+3.5) at Illinois
This game is involving two of the best defenses in all of college football and one of the country’s worst offenses. So I was really tempted to go with the under at 36.5. But I’m too scared of there being a few defensive scores or short fields for the offenses.
Instead, I’m going with Iowa to cover. I just don’t see either team getting a lot of separation in this game. Illinois hasn’t played a team with a defense nearly as good as Iowa’s all season. And the same might be true for Iowa.
Not too mention, Illinois might be getting a little too much love for beating up on a pretty bad Wisconsin team. The way they shut down the Badger’s run game was impressive, but the Illini will have much more trouble sustaining drives against this Hawkeye defense. Illinois has the best offensive player on either side in Chase Brown and a QB who is better at taking care of the ball, so they should pull out the win. But I expect Iowa to hang around all night long.
Wisconsin at Northwestern (+10.5)
It seems the public believes Jim Leonhard is going to light a fire in this team and they’ll get back on track against a Northwestern team that’s lost 4 straight since their season-opening win against Nebraska. While I understand that thinking, I really don’t think a head-coaching change will make that big of an impact on this team in just one week.
And it’s not like Northwestern is a team Wisconsin usually beats handedly. In the past 8 meetings, Wisconsin is 4-4 and they’ve only won by double digits twice.
I fully expect the Badgers to get back in the win column this week. But at the same time, they are just not a very good football team. They can’t seem to lean on the running game like they have in years past, and Graham Mertz hasn’t taken any steps forward since he took over as the starter back in 2020.
Pat Fitzgerald that they need this game if they want any hope of getting their season back on track. In what should be another ugly Big Ten West showdown, I think Northwestern hangs in there and keeps this game close.