1) Ohio State is the best team in the country
The Buckeyes continue to dispose of their competition after a quarter and some change before pulling their starters before the 4th quarter. We won’t be able to tell how truly great this team is until their road trip to Happy Valley at the end of the month, but Ohio State’s nearly flawless play is hard to ignore.
The improvement of the silver bullet defense under Jim Knowles has been well documented, but the extent of how great his defense is has not been. Ohio State is top 20 nationally in passing, rushing, total, and scoring defense. And that’ s with the the backups often giving up long TD drives in the 4th quarter, deflating what would be even better numbers.
Georgia, Alabama, Michigan, Clemson, USC, and every other unbeaten team has shown genuine weaknesses against inferior competition. Sure, Ohio State’s cornerback play and health is a concern. But it appears to be the Buckeyes’ only weakness – and one that hasn’t cost them in a game yet.
But Ohio State’s front-7 (or front-6, as they mainly run out of a 4-2-5), is among the best in the entire country. They’ve consistently left runners no room to run while harassing QBs for 6 straight games now. OSU’s run defense in ranked 15th nationally and they are allowing only 3 yards per carry – both of which are also inflated by some big runs given up by the backups.
And of course, Ohio State boasts the most electric offense in all of college football. With Jaxon Smith-Njigba still out with a nagging hamstring injury, Marvin Harrison Jr and Emeka Egbuka are both contenders for the Belitnekoff. TreVeyon Henderson and Miyan Williams are the country’s best running back tandem and are the driving force behind a ground game that can beat defenses just as easily as the pass game.
In order for someone to beat Ohio State, they’ll have to play close to a perfect game. They’ll also need a group of receivers who can consistently come down with 1-on-1 balls down the field – something I’m not sure is quite as prevalent this year. Outside of Columbus, OH, of course.
With OSU on a bye, Alabama has a chance to claim the #1 spot if they can show the dominance people expect of them this weekend at Tennessee. But as it stands entering week 7 of college football season, Ohio State is best team in the country.
2) Chase Brown belongs in the Heisman discussion
CJ Stroud is sitting at minus odds to win the Heisman after just 6 weeks of football. That is unreal. If Ohio State finishes 13-0, it seems pretty clear that CJ will take home the hardware. He may not have his “Heisman moment” because of how dominant Ohio State is, but his final numbers may be topped only by Joe Burrow all-time.
For argument’s sake, let’s take CJ out of the discussion. Whether it be a loss, a bad game, an injury, or any other possibilities that could derail his campaign. Behind the Ohio State QB, the field of contenders is a jumbled mess. QBs Hendon Hooker, Caleb Williams, Dorian Thompson-Robinson, DJ Uiagalelei, and Adrian Martinez have all seen their odds rise over the past couple weeks and are generally talked about as the next tier of contenders.
Blake Corum is tied with Uiagalelei for the 6th-best odds entering week 7. He is also the only non-QB to be in the top 10. That is a little disappointing, as there is anther running back in Corum’s own conference who deserves just as much mention in the Heisman conversation.
Chase Brown has been nothing short of spectacular for the Illini so far this season, leading the country in both rushing and scrimmage yards. And unlike Corum, who saw a large portion of his production come in his 243-yard outburst against Maryland (his only time topping 150 yards), Chase Brown has been consistently great. He’s rushed for over 100 yards in every one of his games, topping 150 twice.
Brown also does not have the benefit Corum has of playing in an offense with a respectable pass game. JJ McCarthy leads the country in completion percentage at 78.3%, while Illinois is completing just 69%. Michigan also averages 246 passing yards per game to Illinois’ 211. It is much more difficult to run the ball when the entire defense knows what’s coming.
Blake Corum gets the benefit of having guys like Donovan Edwards and CJ Stokes behind him, allowing him to stay fresh throughout the game. Chase Brown, on the other hand, leads the country in snaps played. The man barely gets any rest but still carries this offense down the field.
Of course, Blake Corum does have the benefit of playing for the #5 team in the country – a team that figures to be in the playoff race through the end of the season. Illinois, meanwhile, just entered the AP Poll for the first time in over 10 years. If Chase Brown wants a shot at getting to New York, he’ll have to hope Illinois continues to do something they haven’t done much of prior to this year: WIN.
But as Illinois has proven so far this year, winning a lot of games is not out of the question. In fact, a 10-2 record and a Big Ten Championship birth seems attainable for a squad which most people didn’t even think would make a bowl game. Assuming Illinois plays that 13th game in the Big Ten Championship, Chase Brown is on pace to have over 2,000 yards from scrimmage. Combining an historic individual season with an historic season for Illinois would do a lot for Brown’s case.
With a great individual and team season, the only thing Brown would need to get to the Heisman ceremony is his “Heisman moment.” And he could get it when Illinois travels to the Big House to play Michigan in the second-to-last weekend of the season.
That game very well may be a ranked matchup featuring the top 2 rushers in the entire country. If Chase Brown can outperform Blake Corum and lead the Illini to a monumental upset on the road, I don’t think Heisman voters would have any choice but to include the incredible running back on their ballots.
Illinois beating Michigan and making it to the Big Ten Championship is far from a certainty. If Illinois drops a few games and finishes 8-4 (which would still be a great success for Bielema’s second season), Brown can kiss his Heisman hopes goodbye no matter how many yards he finishes with.
But as it stands entering week 7, Chase Brown is the country’s top rusher and the leader for a team which no one expected to appear in any rankings this year. The script is there for Brown to have an incredible season with the entire country watching. If Blake Corum is cracking the top 5 of people’s Heisman rankings, Chase Brown certainly deserves to at least be mentioned.
3) Big Ten West is a “who ya got” of Illinois, Purdue, Minnesota, and Wisconsin
If I had to pick today, my choice to win the Big Ten West would probably be Purdue. But to me honest, I wouldn’t be surprised in the least in any one of Illinois, Minnesota, Wisconsin, or Purdue went to Indy.
Northwestern is on a downward trajectory unlike anything we’ve seen in the past 15 years. Pat Fitzgerald has done a great job at keeping Northwestern nationally relevant (at least every other year). And when Ryan Hilinski torched the Huskers in the opener to start 1-0, people thought Fitzgerald might have his QB that can take them back to the Big Ten Championship. Boy was that wrong. Northwestern has lost every game since, including inexcusable losses to Miami OH and Southern Illinois. The Wildcats are more concerned with finding a second win on their schedule than they are winning the division.
Despite starting 1-2 in the conference, Iowa still has a path to the title game. But last week’s 6-9 loss against Illinois once again showed exactly why they won’t be able to win enough games to win the west. They simply don’t have the personnel or coaching to get points or pick up first down when they need it most. I’d be shocked if Iowa makes it out of the West.
After back to back wins over Indiana and Rutgers, Nebraska is quietly at the top of the West entering week 7. They’ve showed something they rarely ever displayed under Scott Frost: perseverance. Although they do have some nice pieces and could be poised for an improved 2023, the Huskers are still a ways from winning this division. After all, the were tied with Indiana entering the 4th and trailed Rutgers in the 4th quarter. Indiana and Rutgers are amongst the four worst teams in the Big Ten.
That leaves Wisconsin, Illinois, Purdue, and Minnesota – all of which I could realistically see making the Big Ten Championship. Wisconsin may be a surprising choice to some, but they are coming off their most impressive win of the season after letting go of Paul Chryst. Coaching changes can create a spark in some teams, and I think Wisconsin’s culture is strong enough to get better through this transition.
Minnesota is a hard team to gauge. They looked as good as anyone in the country during their 5-0 start (against lesser competition), and then got dominated along both lines in an ugly 20-10 loss to Purdue. They were without their offensive heartbeat in Mo Ibrahim against Purdue and followed that week up with a bye, so it’s hard to tell if that performance was an aberration. They hit the road to play Illinois this week – a team that will also test their strength in the trenches.
Illinois is one of college football’s biggest surprises and looks like the early favorite to take the West. Their defense is amongst the nation’s strongest and their offense boasts the aforementioned Chase Brown. Despite their performance against Purdue, Minnesota is going to be Illinois’ toughest opponent to date. This Illini team could crumble quickly if they face an early deficit – something that might happen when this defense plays an opponent that can beat you in more ways than one. A win this week would put Illinois in the driver’s seat to win the West,. but the jury is still out until then.
4) Schiano’s offensive ineptitude could cost Rutgers their rebuild
Rutgers’ home loss against Nebraska Friday night was bad. Inexcusable, in fact. The Scarlet Knights had control of that game and handed Nebraska the type of win they’ve been allergic to over the past two years.
Schiano has been running multiple quarterbacks all season long. It started with the mobile Kyle Wimsatt and the semi-competent Noah Simon. But with Wimsatt getting injured and the incumbent starter Noah Vedral’s return from surgery, Simon and Vedral have been rotating. In the 1st half, it seemed to work. They made some big plays and consistently moved the ball against Nebraska. In fact, the 13-0 halftime lead seemed modest.
Then the wheels fell off. The quarterback rotation seemed random at best and did absolutely nothing to get the offense into a rhythm. Both quarterbacks went 6-15 and picked up a combined 19 yards on the ground. They missed countless open receivers and looked like they were leading a high school offense.
Nonetheless, Rutgers had Nebraska on the ropes thanks to their stifling defense. The Huskers took the opening possession of the 2nd half down to make it 13-7, but only mustered 65 total yards on their next 3 drives. They didn’t seem to have an answer.
And then Rutgers kept throwing the ball. With nine minutes left, they faced a 2nd and 17 from their own 35. Again, their defense was playing lights out. Instead of trying to kill some clock and set up a punt that could pin Nebraska deep inside their territory, Rutgers threw out of the shotgun. Evan Simon stared Shameen Jones for a solid 5 seconds before trying to squeeze it in to him on a comeback route against tight man coverage. He didn’t even give Jones a shot. Simon threw a beautiful ball to Husker cornerback Myles Farmer which set them up at the Rutgers 27 yard line. They scored one play later to take the lead, and Rutgers didn’t even make it over midfield on their next two possessions.
The Scarlet Knights possessions in the 2nd half went: punt, INT, punt, INT, punt, INT. It was simply incompetent offense against the same defense that gave up 642 YARDS against GEORIGA SOUTHERN. Not only has the Rutgers quarterback play shown no signs of improvement in Schiano’s two and a half years, but the play calling lacks any semblance of preparation or creativity.
Schiano fired OC Sean Gleeson Sunday, but I don’t see that offering many answers for Rutgers. Tight ends coach Nunzio Campanile is taking over for the season, but Rutgers is clearly going to have to make a splash hire in the off-season to counteract Schiano’s offensive ineptitude. That is, if they want any shot at becoming semi-relevant again.
Greg Schiano is trying to rebuild Rutgers the same way he rebuilt it the last time. The problem is, the college game has evolved in the past 15-20 years. In the most basic sense, teams score more. This is an issue that I’ve mentioned before which plagues many Big Ten teams – mostly in the West. It is clear Schiano has little skill when it comes to judging a quarterback, finding a play-caller, or managing in-game situations. He establishes culture and builds great defenses – something he’s done for the 2nd time there.
But if Rutgers wants any chance of becoming a perennial bowl team which can give Michigan and Ohio State a tough game every few years, they are going to have to make a real financial investment into their coaching staff. Nothing about Rutgers – past, present, or future – is going to attract hot offensive names like Hugh Freeze, Garrett Riley, or Andy Lutwig. And those are the kinds of coaches this offense needs in order to become competitive.
5) The line of where Kirk Ferentz and Pat Fitzgerald’s job security is will be tested this season
For Iowa, it’s more of how they are losing games this season – not how many. After all, Ferentz withstood a 4-8 season in 2012 without any murmurs of his job security. But it just feels different this year.
Iowa has become a national laughing stock for what they are fielding, and Kirk Ferentz is downright refusing to make any changes. He is trying to sell the Hawkeye fanbase an iPod in an age where everyone is streaming music.
Sitting at 3-3, the only win fans can be confident about is against Northwestern in two weeks. A 4-8 season is more than on the table. In a year when the West is as weak as it’s ever been, I’m sure fans’ patience will wear thin.
Even with a 4-8 finish, I’d be surprised in Ferentz got the boot after this season. However, it would ensure that he’d need to make some big strides on offense in 2023. Or else that might be the final year of Ferentz’s illustrious 24 year career.
Pat Fitzgerald, on the other hand, might be dealing with a little bit more heat. This season is looking to be as bad as any Northwestern has had in its history. In fact, a 1-11 season might even be the likeliest scenario. And the fact of the matter is that this program has been a downward trajectory.
In the 11 seasons from 2008-2018, Pat Fitzgerald won 8 or more games 6 times, made a bowl game 9 times, and finished below .500 in back-to-back years only once. His worst record in that stretch was 5-7.
But this year figures to be the 3rd time in 4 seasons that the Wildcats finish with 3 or fewer wins. Their only winning season came in the COVID season when they went 7-2, which now seems like a distant fever dream.
The biggest thing protecting Fitzgerald right now is that Northwestern would be scraping the bottom of the barrel to find it’s next coach. There are plenty of power-5 coordinator positions that candidates would take over the Northwestern head coaching job. But when fans decide they are done with someone, it can be hard not to listen. That turn hasn’t happened yet, but 6 more blowout losses might do the trick.
Kirk Ferentz and Pat Fitzgerald have built their respective programs to levels most fans used to only be able to dream of. But as Harvey Dent said in The Dark Knight, “you either die a hero, or live long enough to see yourself become a villain.” Ferentz and Fitzgerald may both have to contemplate stepping aside from their sinking ships after this season, or risk being driven out by the same fans that adored them for so many years.