Last week: 3-2 Overall: 15-5
Last week’s picks weren’t horrible. I nailed Purdue, Rutgers, and Iowa all covering. And Michigan could have easily covered -22.5 had they not missed a field goal or kept their foot on the gas a bit longer. Alas, they won by 21.
I’m disgusted with my pick of Northwestern to cover. I originally had Wisconsin to cover, but thought too much of Northwestern’s tight game with Penn State the week before. Northwestern is horrible and I’m ashamed for putting any faith in them. Not gonna happen again.
Nonetheless, there’s an incredible slate of games across all conferences this weekend, including a few great ones in the Big Ten. The game of the year (so far) in Penn State vs Michigan kicks the day off along with a Big Ten West showdown in Minnesota vs Illinois. Maryland vs Indiana figures to give us some fireworks while Wisconsin vs Michigan State will probably put most viewers to sleep in the midday slate. Then Purdue hosts Nebraska at night in what should be an interesting contest.
I’m feeling pretty lucky this week. 5-0 is certainly in the cards…
1) Penn State (+7) at Michigan
Penn State is easily the most complete team Michigan has faced to date. In their past two games against Iowa and Indiana, the Wolverine offense struggled to move the ball consistently. And three weeks ago, they gave up 400 yards of offense and 27 points at home against Maryland. They are still deserving of their top-5 ranking, but Michigan has looked far from perfect over the past 3 weeks.
Enter Penn State. The Nittany Lions are 5th in the country allowing 80 rush yards per game at only 2.9 yards per carry. Although they’ve given up some yards through the air against Purdue and Auburn, Penn State is 3rd nationally in opponent completion percentage and 10th nationally in turnovers forced. Coming fresh off of a bye, Penn State should be able to force some mistakes out of JJ McCarthy, who has shown a propensity to overthrow deep passes, hang on to the ball too long, and force throws.
The biggest difference between this year’s Penn State team and last year’s version is the presence of a run game. Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen have emerged as a solid 1-2 punch, combining for 766 yards and 8 TDs on 6.4 ypc. With Keandre Lambert-Smith seemingly back to full health, Penn State also has a deep group of playmakers at receiver. This offensive line is still susceptible to giving up pressure, but the back end of this Michigan offense has proven to be very vulnerable.
Given the game is being played at Michigan and JJ McCarthy’s ability to make plays with his legs, I still like Michigan to come out on top. But I think this line should be closer to 4 points than 7. I am very confident this game will be decided by one possession. Pick Penn State to cover the spread.
2) Wisconsin (-7) at Michigan State
I think the wheels are falling off this Michigan State team. It’s clear Mel Tucker caught lightning in a bottle with Kenneth Walker last year. His incredible vision and ability to break tackles helped mask what was a mediocre offensive line. He also drew defenses into the box, allowing Payton Thorne to deliver some downfield shots.
But with virtually no running game to rely on this year (Sparty is averaging 107 rush yards per game on 3.9 yards per carry), the offense has fallen apart. It’s clear Payton Thorne does not have the arm talent to carry this offense, as they are mustering just 342 total yards per game (12th in the Big Ten).
It doesn’t help that the defense has taken little or no steps forward from last year’s debacle. They are giving up almost 450 yards per game and a conference-worst 6.1 yards per play. LB Jacoby Windom has accounted for more than a third of the team’s sacks, but 4 of his 5.5 came in week 1 against Western Michigan. The Spartans are also 12th in the Big Ten in rushing yards allowed and ypc allowed. At all three levels, this defense is struggling mightily.
Meanwhile, Wisconsin had the opportunity to hit reset on the whole season with interim HC Jim Leonhard. Their season got away from them quickly after losing to WSU at home in a game they largely dominated. They followed that up two weeks later with a road trip to Columbus. As they tended to their wounds after that matchup, they had to face a highly motivated Illinois team that looked to beat them up just as much if not worse than Ohio State did. The way their schedule laid out did not do then any favors.
But they may have turned a new stone with the change in coaching. This Wisconsin team has enough talent to win the West and I think they maintain their momentum from their blowout win against Northwestern last week. Wisconsin should cruise past the nose-diving Spartans.
3) Nebraska (+14) at Purdue
As I’ve mentioned in previous posts, I really like the direction Purdue is headed. They’ve committed more to the run game and minimized their mistakes offensively. In fact, they’re my current favorite to get to Indianapolis. However, 14 is an awful lot of points.
First off, Purdue is coming off a brutal 4-week stretch where the games were decided by a combined 17 points. Finally returning back home, I have a hard time seeing Purdue get off to a hot start against Nebraska.
Second, Nebraska is trending up. I think we need to judge this team more by what we’ve seen in the two games since their bye week than what we saw in the first four games of the season. Although they certainly didn’t look all that impressive over their consecutive wins against Indiana and Rutgers, Nebraska should be playing with the most confidence than they have had since 2020. Purdue has been stout against the run, but has been very susceptible to the pass. I think the Casey Thompson to Trey Palmer connection is going to be hard for the Boilers to stop.
Purdue is the better team and is more equipped to win a game in a variety of ways. Playing at home under the lights, I have a really hard time seeing Nebraska pull off the upset. But they should be able to keep it relatively close. Nebraska keeping this game within 2 touchdowns is very reasonable, if not likely.
4) Minnesota (-6.5) at Illinois
Minnesota is coming off of their bye with a bad taste in their mouth following their loss to Purdue. With Mo Ibrahim expected to return this weekend, Minnesota’s offense will try to get back in the rhythm they were in the first 4 weeks of the season. Illinois’ defense is the best Minnesota will have faced all season by far, but the same can be said about Minnesota’s offense against the Illini defense. Something has to give.
With the extra week of preparation and a more evenly balanced offensive attack, I expect Minnesota to take a key Big Ten West win from Illinois. I’d likely pick Illinois to cover, though, if it weren’t for the injuries they amassed in last week’s win over Iowa. They are likely to be without starting QB Tommy DeVito, their best WR in Isaiah Williams, sophomore DB Taz Nicholson and senior LB Isaac Darkangelo. Although they all should return after the bye they have following this game, those injuries are going to hurt them this week.
After leading a 1-11 campaign at Rutgers in 2018 in which he had 4 TDs to 18 INTs, replacement QB Artur Sitkowski appeared in 12 games the past three years with 10 TDs and 4 INTs. One of those interceptions came last week against Iowa, though. And Illinois can’t afford to turn the ball over if they want to stay in this game. With a refreshed Gopher defense that’s trails only Illinois nationally in yards allowed per game and forces nearly 2 turnovers per game, I see Illinois coughing up the ball a couple times.
Chase Brown is one of the country’s best backs, but there will be an even bigger burden on his shoulders without DeVito and Williams. Illinois’ stout defense should keep this game tight until the 4th quarter, but I think the Gophers will be able to make some plays and get this game out of reach. As soon as the lead bubbles to two possessions in the 4th quarter, Illinois will be forced to abandon their formula and start throwing the ball. Surely, that can’t end well.
5) Maryland at Indiana (O61.5)
This one seems fairly simple to me… Maryland and Indiana are both in the bottom three of the Big Ten in pass defense, and top five in pass offense.
Indiana has given up at least 30 points in each of their past five games. Maryland has given up at least 27 points in three of their past four games.
Trying to get back on track after a nail-biting loss to Purdue last weekend, Maryland should ride their electric passing attack to an early lead against the overmatched Hoosiers. But Indiana is not afraid of high passing volume. Given Maryland’s weak back-7, I think Indiana will be able to hang around in this game.
Both teams desperately need this win and I could see both offenses clearing 30 points. This seems like a shootout to me.